Variability in the Timing of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Epidemics in Guatemala, 2008-2018.

BACKGROUND: The description of local seasonality patterns in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) incidence is important to guide the timing of administration of RSV immunization products. METHODS: We characterized RSV seasonality in Guatemala using the moving epidemic method (MEM) with absolute counts of RSV-associated acute respiratory infections (ARI) from hospital surveillance in Santa Rosa and Quetzaltenango departments of Guatemala. RESULTS: From Week 17 of 2008 through Week 16 of 2018, 8487 ARI cases tested positive for RSV by rRT-PCR. Season onsets varied up to 5 months; early seasons starting in late May to early August and finishing in September to November were most common, but late seasons starting in October to November and finishing in March to April were also observed. Both epidemic patterns had similar durations ranging from 4 to 6 months. Epidemic thresholds (the levels of virus activity that signal the onset and end of a seasonal epidemic) calculated prospectively using previous seasons' data captured between 70% and 99% of annual RSV detections. Onset weeks differed by 2-10 weeks, and offset weeks differed by 2-16 weeks between the two surveillance sites. CONCLUSIONS: Variability in the timing of seasonal RSV epidemics in Guatemala demonstrates the difficulty in precisely predicting the timing of seasonal RSV epidemics based on onset weeks from past seasons and suggests that maximal reduction in RSV disease burden would be achieved through year-round vaccination and immunoprophylaxis administration to at-risk infants.

The epidemiology and estimated etiology of pathogens detected from the upper respiratory tract of adults with severe acute respiratory infections in multiple countries, 2014-2015.

INTRODUCTION: Etiology studies of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in adults are limited. We studied potential etiologies of SARI among adults in six countries using multi-pathogen diagnostics. METHODS: We enrolled both adults with SARI (acute respiratory illness onset with fever and cough requiring hospitalization) and asymptomatic adults (adults hospitalized with non-infectious illnesses, non-household members accompanying SARI patients, adults enrolled from outpatient departments, and community members) in each country. Demographics, clinical data, and nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal specimens were collected from both SARI patients and asymptomatic adults. Specimens were tested for presence of 29 pathogens utilizing the Taqman® Array Card platform. We applied a non-parametric Bayesian regression extension of a partially latent class model approach to estimate proportions of SARI caused by specific pathogens. RESULTS: We enrolled 2,388 SARI patients and 1,135 asymptomatic adults from October 2013 through October 2015. We detected ≥1 pathogen in 76% of SARI patients and 67% of asymptomatic adults. Haemophilus influenzae and Streptococcus pneumoniae were most commonly detected (≥23% of SARI patients and asymptomatic adults). Through modeling, etiology was attributed to a pathogen in most SARI patients (range among countries: 57.3-93.2%); pathogens commonly attributed to SARI etiology included influenza A (14.4-54.4%), influenza B (1.9-19.1%), rhino/enterovirus (1.8-42.6%), and RSV (3.6-14.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Use of multi-pathogen diagnostics and modeling enabled attribution of etiology in most adult SARI patients, despite frequent detection of multiple pathogens in the upper respiratory tract. Seasonal flu vaccination and development of RSV vaccine would likely reduce the burden of SARI in these populations.