Long-term cohort study of patients presenting with hypercapnic respiratory failure.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to describe the long-term prognosis for a population-based cohort of people with hypercapnic respiratory failure (HRF) and the associations between underlying diagnoses and the risks of death and rehospitalisation. METHODS: We performed a historical cohort study of all persons with HRF in the Liverpool local government area in New South Wales, Australia, in the 3-year period from 2013 to 2015. Cohort members were identified using arterial blood gas results from Liverpool Hospital demonstrating pH ≤7.45 and PaCO2 >45 mm Hg within 24 hours of presentation. Linked health data were obtained from statewide registries with a minimum follow-up period of 6 years. The primary outcomes were time to death from any cause and the standardised mortality ratio (SMR) which compares the observed to the expected number of deaths in the same population. Secondary outcomes were time to rehospitalisation and the associations between death and/or hospitalisation and underlying diagnoses. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 590 adults aged between 15 and 101 years. Overall, 415 (70.3%) participants died in the follow-up period. Among those who survived the index admission, the probability of survival at 1, 3 and 5 years was 81%, 59% and 45%, respectively. The overall SMR was 9.2 (95% CI 7.6 to 11.0), indicating a near 10-fold risk of death than otherwise expected for age. Most (91%) survivors experienced rehospitalisation, with median (IQR) time to readmission of 3.9 (1.2-10.6) months. Congestive cardiac failure and neuromuscular disease were associated with an increased risk of death, whereas chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and sleep disordered breathing increased the risk of rehospitalisation. CONCLUSIONS: HRF is associated with poor survival and high risk of rehospitalisation in the 5 years following an index event. The underlying disease appears to have some influence on overall survival and subsequent hospitalisations.

Population-wide active case finding as a strategy to end TB.

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading infectious cause of morbidity and mortality globally. Despite available tools for preventing, finding, and treating TB, many people with TB remain undiagnosed. In high-incidence settings, TB transmission is ubiquitous within the community, affecting both high-risk groups and the general population. In fact, most people who develop TB come from the general population. To disrupt the chain of transmission that sustains the TB epidemic, we need to find and treat everyone with infectious TB as early as possible, including those with minimal symptoms or subclinical TB who are unlikely to present for care. Important elements of an effective active case-finding strategy include effective social mobilisation and community engagement, using sensitive screening tools that can be used at scale, and embracing population-wide screening in high-incidence ('hot spot') areas. We require a better description of feasible delivery models, 'real-life' impact and cost effectiveness to enable wider implementation.

Prevalence and burden of difficult-to-treat and severe asthma in Australia: A national population survey.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Most evidence about difficult-to-treat and severe asthma (DTTA) comes from clinical trials and registries. We aimed to identify people with DTTA from a large nationally representative asthma population and describe their characteristics and healthcare utilization compared with people whose asthma was not 'difficult-to-treat'. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of Australians aged ≥18 years with current asthma from large web-based survey panels. Enrolment was stratified by gender, age-group and state/territory based on national population data for people with asthma. Difficult-to-treat or severe asthma was defined by poor symptom control, exacerbations and/or oral corticosteroid/biologic use despite medium/high-dose inhaled therapy. Outcomes included exacerbations, healthcare utilization, multimorbidity, quality of life and coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19)-related behaviour. Weighted data were analysed using SAS version 9.4. RESULTS: The survey was conducted in February-March 2021. The weighted sample comprised 6048 adults with current asthma (average age 47.3 ± SD 18.1 years, 59.9% female), with 1313 (21.7%) satisfying ≥1 DTTA criteria. Of these, 50.4% had very poorly controlled symptoms (Asthma Control Test ≤15), 36.2% were current smokers, and 85.4% had ≥1 additional chronic condition, most commonly anxiety/depression. More than twice as many participants with DTTA versus non-DTTA had ≥1 urgent general practitioner (GP) visit (61.4% vs. 27.5%, OR 4.8 [4.2-5.5, p < 0.0001]), or ≥1 emergency room visit (41.9% vs. 17.9%, OR 3.8 [3.3-4.4, p < 0.0001]) in the previous 12 months. CONCLUSION: Our findings emphasize the burden of uncontrolled symptoms, current smoking, multimorbidity and healthcare utilization in people with DTTA in the community, who may be under-represented in registries or clinical trials.

Estimates of global mortality burden associated with short-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2·5).

BACKGROUND: The acute health effects of short-term (hours to days) exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2·5) have been well documented; however, the global mortality burden attributable to this exposure has not been estimated. We aimed to estimate the global, regional, and urban mortality burden associated with short-term exposure to PM2·5 and the spatiotemporal variations in this burden from 2000 to 2019. METHODS: We combined estimated global daily PM2·5 concentrations, annual population counts, country-level mortality rates, and epidemiologically derived exposure-response functions to estimate the mortality attributable to short-term PM2·5 exposure from 2000 to 2019, in the continental regions and in 13 189 urban centres worldwide at a spatial resolution of 0·1°â€ˆ× 0·1°. We tested the robustness of our mortality estimates with different theoretical minimum risk exposure levels, lag effects, and exposure-response functions. FINDINGS: Approximately 1 million (95% CI 690 000-1·3 million) premature deaths per year from 2000 to 2019 were attributable to short-term PM2·5 exposure, representing 2·08% (1·41-2·75) of total global deaths or 17 (11-22) premature deaths per 100 000 population. Annually, 0·23 million (0·15 million-0·30 million) deaths attributable to short-term PM2·5 exposure were in urban areas, constituting 22·74% of the total global deaths attributable to this cause and accounting for 2·30% (1·56-3·05) of total global deaths in urban areas. The sensitivity analyses showed that our worldwide estimates of mortality attributed to short-term PM2·5 exposure were robust. INTERPRETATION: Short-term exposure to PM2·5 contributes a substantial global mortality burden, particularly in Asia and Africa, as well as in global urban areas. Our results highlight the importance of mitigation strategies to reduce short-term exposure to air pollution and its adverse effects on human health. FUNDING: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Effect of Azithromycin on Asthma Remission in Adults With Persistent Uncontrolled Asthma: A Secondary Analysis of a Randomized, Double-Anonymized, Placebo-Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Asthma remission is a potential treatment goal. RESEARCH QUESTION: Does adding azithromycin to standard therapy in patients with persistent uncontrolled asthma induce remission compared with placebo? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This secondary analysis used data from the Asthma and Macrolides: the Azithromycin Efficacy and Safety (AMAZES) clinical trial-a double-anonymized placebo-controlled trial that evaluated the safety and efficacy of azithromycin on asthma exacerbations. The primary remission definition (referred to as clinical remission) was zero exacerbations and zero oral corticosteroids during the previous 6 months evaluated at 12 months and a 5-item Asthma Control Questionnaire score ≤ 1 at 12 months. Secondary remission definitions included clinical remission plus lung function criteria (postbronchodilator FEV1 ≥ 80% or postbronchodilator FEV1 ≤ 5% decline from baseline) and complete remission (sputum eosinophil count < 3% plus the aforementioned criteria). Sensitivity analyses explored the robustness of primary and secondary remission definitions. The predictors of clinical remission were identified. RESULTS: A total of 335 participants (41.5% male; median age, 61.01 years; quartile 1-3, 51.03-68.73) who completed the 12-month treatment period were included in the analysis. Twelve months of treatment with azithromycin induced asthma remission in a subgroup of patients, and a significantly higher proportion in the azithromycin arm achieved both clinical remission (50.6% vs 38.9%; P = .032) and clinical remission plus lung function criteria (50.8% vs 37.1%; P = .029) compared with placebo, respectively. In addition, a higher proportion of the azithromycin group achieved complete remission (23% vs 13.7%; P = .058). Sensitivity analyses supported these findings. Baseline factors (eg, better asthma-related quality of life, absence of oral corticosteroid burst in the previous year) predicted the odds of achieving clinical remission. Azithromycin induced remission in both eosinophilic and noneosinophilic asthma. INTERPRETATION: In this study, adults with persistent symptomatic asthma achieved a higher remission rate when treated with azithromycin. Remission on treatment may be an achievable treatment target in moderate/severe asthma, and future studies should consider remission as an outcome measure.

Classification of early tuberculosis states to guide research for improved care and prevention: an international Delphi consensus exercise.

The current active-latent paradigm of tuberculosis largely neglects the documented spectrum of disease. Inconsistency with regard to definitions, terminology, and diagnostic criteria for different tuberculosis states has limited the progress in research and product development that are needed to achieve tuberculosis elimination. We aimed to develop a new framework of classification for tuberculosis that accommodates key disease states but is sufficiently simple to support pragmatic research and implementation. Through an international Delphi exercise that involved 71 participants representing a wide range of disciplines, sectors, income settings, and geographies, consensus was reached on a set of conceptual states, related terminology, and research gaps. The International Consensus for Early TB (ICE-TB) framework distinguishes disease from infection by the presence of macroscopic pathology and defines two subclinical and two clinical tuberculosis states on the basis of reported symptoms or signs of tuberculosis, further differentiated by likely infectiousness. The presence of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis and an associated host response are prerequisites for all states of infection and disease. Our framework provides a clear direction for tuberculosis research, which will, in time, improve tuberculosis clinical care and elimination policies.

COPD in Never-Smokers: BOLD Australia Study.

Purpose: Tobacco smoking is the major risk factor for COPD, and it is common for other risk factors in never-smokers to be overlooked. We examined the prevalence of COPD among never-smokers in Australia and identified associated risk factors. Methods: We used data from the Australia Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) study, a cross-section of people aged ≥40 years from six sites. Participants completed interviews and post-bronchodilator spirometry. COPD was primarily defined as an FEV1/FVC ratio <0.70 and secondarily as the ratio less than the lower limit of normal (LLN). Results: The prevalence of COPD in the 1656 never-smokers who completed the study was 10.5% (95% CI: 9.1-12.1%) [ratio

Risk factors and clinical characteristics of breathlessness in Australian adults: Data from the BOLD Australia study.

BACKGROUND: Breathlessness is a common symptom related to a significant health burden. However, the association of breathlessness with clinical characteristics, especially objective pulmonary test results is scarce. We aimed to identify the characteristics independently associated with breathlessness in Australian adults. METHOD: The analysis used data from BOLD Australia, a cross-sectional study that included randomly selected adults aged ≥40 years from six sites in Australia. Clinical characteristics and spirometry results were compared for breathlessness (modified Medical Research Council [mMRC] grade ≥2). RESULTS: Among all respondents (n = 3321), 252 participants (7.6%) reported breathlessness. The main univariate associations were obesity, chronic respiratory diseases, heart diseases and being Indigenous Australians (odds ratios [ORs] = 2.78, 5.20, 3.77 and 4.38, respectively). Participants with breathlessness had lower pre-and post-bronchodilator lung function than those without. Impaired spirometry results including FVC or FEV1 below 80% predicted, or FEV1/FVC < LLN were independently associated with breathlessness (adjusted ORs = 2.66, 2.94 and 2.34, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Breathlessness is common among Australian adults and is independently associated with obesity, chronic respiratory diseases, heart diseases, being Indigenous Australians, and impaired spirometry. Multi-disciplinary assessment and comprehensive investigation is needed in clinical practice to address the many factors associated with breathlessness in the population.

Estimating the contribution of subclinical tuberculosis disease to transmission: An individual patient data analysis from prevalence surveys.

Background: Individuals with bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) disease who do not report symptoms (subclinical TB) represent around half of all prevalent cases of TB, yet their contribution to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission is unknown, especially compared to individuals who report symptoms at the time of diagnosis (clinical TB). Relative infectiousness can be approximated by cumulative infections in household contacts, but such data are rare. Methods: We reviewed the literature to identify studies where surveys of Mtb infection were linked to population surveys of TB disease. We collated individual-level data on representative populations for analysis and used literature on the relative durations of subclinical and clinical TB to estimate relative infectiousness through a cumulative hazard model, accounting for sputum-smear status. Relative prevalence of subclinical and clinical disease in high-burden settings was used to estimate the contribution of subclinical TB to global Mtb transmission. Results: We collated data on 414 index cases and 789 household contacts from three prevalence surveys (Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Viet Nam) and one case-finding trial in Viet Nam. The odds ratio for infection in a household with a clinical versus subclinical index case (irrespective of sputum smear status) was 1.2 (0.6-2.3, 95% confidence interval). Adjusting for duration of disease, we found a per-unit-time infectiousness of subclinical TB relative to clinical TB of 1.93 (0.62-6.18, 95% prediction interval [PrI]). Fourteen countries across Asia and Africa provided data on relative prevalence of subclinical and clinical TB, suggesting an estimated 68% (27-92%, 95% PrI) of global transmission is from subclinical TB. Conclusions: Our results suggest that subclinical TB contributes substantially to transmission and needs to be diagnosed and treated for effective progress towards TB elimination. Funding: JCE, KCH, ASR, NS, and RH have received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (ERC Starting Grant No. 757699) KCH is also supported by UK FCDO (Leaving no-one behind: transforming gendered pathways to health for TB). This research has been partially funded by UK aid from the UK government (to KCH); however, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government's official policies. PJD was supported by a fellowship from the UK Medical Research Council (MR/P022081/1); this UK-funded award is part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union. RGW is funded by the Wellcome Trust (218261/Z/19/Z), NIH (1R01AI147321-01), EDTCP (RIA208D-2505B), UK MRC (CCF17-7779 via SET Bloomsbury), ESRC (ES/P008011/1), BMGF (OPP1084276, OPP1135288 and INV-001754), and the WHO (2020/985800-0).