Identifying patterning behavior in a plant infestation of insect pests.

In this study, we developed a mechanistic model formulated as a system of reaction-diffusion equations (RDE) to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of a theoretical pest with a tillering host plant in a controlled rectangular plant field. Local perturbation analysis, a recently developed method of analysis for wave propagation, was utilized to determine patterning regimes resulting from the local and global behaviors of the slow and fast diffusing components of the RDE system, respectively. Turing analysis was done to show that the RDE system does not exhibit Turing patterns. With bug mortality as the bifurcation parameter, regions with oscillations and stable coexistence of the pest and tillers were identified. Numerical simulations illustrate the patterning regimes in 1D and 2D settings. The oscillations suggest that recurrences in pest infestation is possible. Moreover, simulations showed that patterns produced in the model are strongly influenced by the pests' homogeneous dynamics inside the controlled environment.

Transmission dynamics and baseline epidemiological parameter estimates of Coronavirus disease 2019 pre-vaccination: Davao City, Philippines.

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has exposed many systemic vulnerabilities in many countries' health system, disaster preparedness, and adequate response capabilities. With the early lack of data and information about the virus and the many differing local-specific factors contributing to its transmission, managing its spread had been challenging. The current work presents a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered compartmental model incorporating intervention protocols during different community quarantine periods. The COVID-19 reported cases before the vaccine rollout in Davao City, Philippines, are utilized to obtain baseline values for key epidemiologic model parameters. The probable secondary infections (i.e., time-varying reproduction number) among other epidemiological indicators were computed. Results show that the cases in Davao City were driven by the transmission rates, positivity proportion, latency period, and the number of severely symptomatic patients. This paper provides qualitative insights into the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 along with the government's implemented intervention protocols. Furthermore, this modeling framework could be used for decision support, policy making, and system development for the current and future pandemics.

Outpatient Respiratory Management of Infants, Children, and Adolescents with Post-Prematurity Respiratory Disease: An Official American Thoracic Society Clinical Practice Guideline.

Background: Premature birth affects millions of neonates each year, placing them at risk for respiratory disease due to prematurity. Bronchopulmonary dysplasia is the most common chronic lung disease of infancy, but recent data suggest that even premature infants who do not meet the strict definition of bronchopulmonary dysplasia can develop adverse pulmonary outcomes later in life. This post-prematurity respiratory disease (PPRD) manifests as chronic respiratory symptoms, including cough, recurrent wheezing, exercise limitation, and reduced pulmonary function. This document provides an evidence-based clinical practice guideline on the outpatient management of infants, children, and adolescents with PPRD. Methods: A multidisciplinary panel of experts posed questions regarding the outpatient management of PPRD. We conducted a systematic review of the relevant literature. The Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation approach was used to rate the quality of evidence and the strength of the clinical recommendations. Results: The panel members considered the strength of each recommendation and evaluated the benefits and risks of applying the intervention. In formulating the recommendations, the panel considered patient and caregiver values, the cost of care, and feasibility. Recommendations were developed for or against three common medical therapies and four diagnostic evaluations in the context of the outpatient management of PPRD. Conclusions: The panel developed recommendations for the outpatient management of patients with PPRD on the basis of limited evidence and expert opinion. Important areas for future research were identified.

A cointegration analysis of rabies cases and weather components in Davao City, Philippines from 2006 to 2017.

Rabies is a lethal viral disease and dogs are the major disease reservoir in the Philippines. Spatio-temporal variations in environmental factors are known to affect disease dynamics. Some rabies-affected countries considered investigating the role of weather components in driving rabies cases and it has helped them to strategize their control efforts. In this study, cointegration analysis was conducted between the monthly reported rabies cases and the weather components, such as temperature and precipitation, to verify the effect of weather components on rabies incidence in Davao City, Philippines. With the Engle-Granger cointegration tests, we found that rabies cases are cointegrated into each of the weather components. It was further validated, using the Granger causality test, that each weather component predicts the rabies cases and not vice versa. Moreover, we performed the Johansen cointegration test to show that the weather components simultaneously affect the number of rabies cases, which allowed us to estimate a vector-error correction model for rabies incidence as a function of temperature and precipitation. Our analyses showed that canine rabies in Davao City was weather-sensitive, which implies that rabies incidence could be projected using established long-run relationship among reported rabies cases, temperature, and precipitation. This study also provides empirical evidence that can guide local health officials in formulating preventive strategies for rabies control and eradication based on weather patterns.