[Fertility trends in Haiti]. / Tendances de la fecondite en Haiti.

PIP: 5 surveys and the 1971 and 1981 censuses have provided differing and apparently contradictory assessments of fertility levels in Haiti over the past 2 decades. This work surveys the published fertility estimates to ascertain whether any trends are discernable and analyzes to what extent variations in total fertility rates can be explained by variations in proximate fertility determinants. 3 methods of data collection were used in the surveys. The 1971-73 survey was conducted in multiple rounds. The 1977 Haiti Fertility Survey, the 1987 Survey of Mortality, Morbidity, and Service Utilization, and the 1989 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey involved partial or total reconstruction of the respondents' fertility histories. The 1983 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey only included the date of the most recent birth. The data corresponding to the 1970s suggest an overall fertility decline from 6 children per women in the late 1960s to slightly over 5 in the mid-1970s. Results of the 1983 and 1987 surveys, on the other hand, indicate a fertility increase, with total fertility rates of 6.2 for 1982-83, 6.3 for 1982-86, and 7.0 for the first half of 1987. The 1989 survey indicated a total fertility rate of 4.6 for 1984-89. Two somewhat different conclusions may be drawn from the data. The first is that, taking into account the variable quality and precision of the data, Haitian total fertility rates appear to have remained between 5.5 and 6.5 during the past 20 years. This conclusion is supported by the fact that almost all of the observed and adjusted total fertility rates fall within the range of 5.5-6.5. The second possible conclusion is that after a decline from around 6 in the late 1960s to 5.5 in the mid-1970s, the total fertility rate increased again to over 6 in the early 1980s. The linear adjustment of observed and adjusted results of the 5 surveys lends support to this conclusion. Analysis of results of the 1977, 1983, and 1987 surveys using Brass's method tends to corroborate this conclusion, as does analysis of the proximate fertility determinants using Bongaarts' method. It is likely that fertility increased from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s, to decline slightly to a level equal to or under 6 children/woman by 1989. Control of reproduction in Haiti appears to be achieved through variations in the frequency and stability of unions and in the duration of breast feeding. Recent increases in contraceptive usage revealed by the 1989 survey may signal the beginning of a transition and new modes of fertility control.^ieng

Spotlight: Haiti.

PIP: Haiti has a population of 5.9 million, their land area is 10.714 square miles, and their population density is 551/square mile. Their birth rate is 47/1000, their death rate is 16/1000 and their yearly growth is 3.1%. Most Caribbean countries have life expectancy of 70 years but Haiti has only 55 years. In the last few years the average lifetime fertility has increased from 5.5-6.7 children/woman. Less than 50% of children attend primary school and birth control is practiced by less than 10% of the people, and has been this way for over 20 years. Agriculture is the country's largest industry, but with low production and deforestation as major problems, it can no longer support the increasing rural population. This has caused large emigration in the 1980's to other countries such as the US, Canada, and the Dominican Republic. Family planning programs have not been successful because of opposition of certain groups. It is estimated that the population could reach 9.5-15.5 million by the year 2025 and life expectancy could increase to 67 years. The full effects of the HIV virus are unknown at this time but it is spreading at a rapid rate. The government is trying to develop a population policy and to make family planning available to all couples. Since there is more uncontrolled Haitian emigration than ever before, this could be a regional problem that the neighboring countries will have to address.^ieng