The effect of local hospital waiting times on GP referrals for suspected cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Reducing waiting times is a major policy objective in publicly-funded healthcare systems. However, reductions in waiting times can produce a demand response, which may offset increases in capacity. Early detection and diagnosis of cancer is a policy focus in many OECD countries, but prolonged waiting periods for specialist confirmation of diagnosis could impede this goal. We examine whether urgent GP referrals for suspected cancer patients are responsive to local hospital waiting times. METHOD: We used annual counts of referrals from all 6,667 general practices to all 185 hospital Trusts in England between April 2012 and March 2018. Using a practice-level measure of local hospital waiting times based on breaches of the two-week maximum waiting time target, we examined the relationship between waiting times and urgent GP referrals for suspected cancer. To identify whether the relationship is driven by differences between practices or changes over time, we estimated three regression models: pooled linear regression, a between-practice estimator, and a within-practice estimator. RESULTS: Ten percent higher rates of patients breaching the two-week wait target in local hospitals were associated with higher volumes of referrals in the pooled linear model (4.4%; CI 2.4% to 6.4%) and the between-practice estimator (12.0%; CI 5.5% to 18.5%). The relationship was not statistically significant using the within-practice estimator (1.0%; CI -0.4% to 2.5%). CONCLUSION: The positive association between local hospital waiting times and GP demand for specialist diagnosis was caused by practices with higher levels of referrals facing longer local waiting times. Temporal changes in waiting times faced by individual practices were not related to changes in their referral volumes. GP referrals for diagnostic cancer services were not found to respond to waiting times in the short-term. In this setting, it may therefore be possible to reduce waiting times by increasing supply without consequently increasing demand.

Understanding the Impacts of Online Mental Health Peer Support Forums: Realist Synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Online forums are widely used for mental health peer support. However, evidence of their safety and effectiveness is mixed. Further research focused on articulating the contexts in which positive and negative impacts emerge from forum use is required to inform innovations in implementation. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop a realist program theory to explain the impacts of online mental health peer support forums on users. METHODS: We conducted a realist synthesis of literature published between 2019 and 2023 and 18 stakeholder interviews with forum staff. RESULTS: Synthesis of 102 evidence sources and 18 interviews produced an overarching program theory comprising 22 context-mechanism-outcome configurations. Findings indicate that users' perceptions of psychological safety and the personal relevance of forum content are foundational to ongoing engagement. Safe and active forums that provide convenient access to information and advice can lead to improvements in mental health self-efficacy. Within the context of welcoming and nonjudgmental communities, users may benefit from the opportunity to explore personal difficulties with peers, experience reduced isolation and normalization of mental health experiences, and engage in mutual encouragement. The program theory highlights the vital role of moderators in creating facilitative online spaces, stimulating community engagement, and limiting access to distressing content. A key challenge for organizations that host mental health forums lies in balancing forum openness and anonymity with the need to enforce rules, such as restrictions on what users can discuss, to promote community safety. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first realist synthesis of online mental health peer support forums. The novel program theory highlights how successful implementation depends on establishing protocols for enhancing safety and strategies for maintaining user engagement to promote forum sustainability. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42022352528; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=352528.

Free-for-all: Does crowding impact outcomes because hospital emergency departments do not prioritise effectively?

Unexpected peaks in volumes of attendances at hospital emergency departments (EDs) have been found to affect waiting times, intensity of care and outcomes. We ask whether these effects of ED crowding on patients are caused by poor clinical prioritisation or a quality-quantity trade-off generated by a binding capacity constraint. We study the effects of crowding created by lower-severity patients on the outcomes of approximately 13 million higher-severity patients attending the 140 public EDs in England between April 2016 and March 2017. Our identification approach relies on high-dimensional fixed effects to account for planned capacity. Unexpected demand from low-severity patients has very limited effects on the care provided to higher-severity patients throughout their entire pathway in ED. Detrimental effects of crowding caused by low-severity patients materialise only at very high levels of unexpected demand, suggesting that binding resource constraints impact patient care only when demand greatly exceeds the ED's expectations. These effects are smaller than those caused by crowding induced by higher-severity patients, suggesting an efficient prioritisation of incoming patients in EDs.

How do hospitals respond to payment unbundling for diagnostic imaging of suspected cancer patients?

Payments for some diagnostic scans undertaken in outpatient settings were unbundled from Diagnosis Related Group based payments in England in April 2013 to address under-provision. Unbundled scans attracted additional payments of between £45 and £748 directly following the reform. We examined the effect on utilization of these scans for patients with suspected cancer. We also explored whether any detected effects represented real increases in use of scans or better coding of activity. We applied difference-in-differences regression to patient-level data from Hospital Episodes Statistics for 180 NHS hospital Trusts in England, between April 2010 and March 2018. We also explored heterogeneity in recorded use of scans before and after the unbundling at hospital Trust-level. Use of scans increased by 0.137 scans per patient following unbundling, a 134% relative increase. This increased annual national provider payments by £79.2 million. Over 15% of scans recorded after the unbundling were at providers that previously recorded no scans, suggesting some of the observed increase in activity reflected previous under-coding. Hospitals recorded substantial increases in diagnostic imaging for suspected cancer in response to payment unbundling. Results suggest that the reform also encouraged improvements in recording, so the real increase in testing is likely lower than detected.

Level of attendance at the English National Health Service Diabetes Prevention Programme and risk of progression to type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the dose-response relationship between the level of attendance at the English National Health Service Diabetes Prevention Programme (DPP) and risk of progression to type 2 diabetes amongst individuals participating in the programme. METHODS: We linked data on DPP attendance for 51,803 individuals that were referred to the programme between 1st June 2016 and 31st March 2018 and attended at least one programme session, with primary care records of type 2 diabetes diagnoses from the National Diabetes Audit up to 31st March 2020. Weibull survival regressions were used to estimate the association between the number of programme sessions attended and risk of progression to type 2 diabetes. RESULTS: Risk of developing type 2 diabetes declined significantly for individuals attending seven of the 13 programme sessions and continued to decline further up to 12 sessions. Attending the full 13 sessions was associated with a 45.5% lower risk (HR: 0.545 95% CI: 0.455 to 0.652). Compared to individuals that only partially attended the programme, attendance at 60% or more of the sessions was associated with a 30.7% lower risk of type 2 diabetes (HR: 0.693 95% CI: 0.645 to 0.745). CONCLUSIONS: Reducing the risk of progression to type 2 diabetes through diabetes prevention programmes requires a minimum attendance level at seven of the 13 programme sessions (54%). Retaining participants beyond this minimum level yields further benefits in diabetes risk reduction. Commissioners may wish to consider altering provider payment schedules to incentivise higher retention levels beyond 60% of programme sessions.

Do Informal Care Recipients Internalise Carer Burden? Examining the Impact of Informal Care Receipt on Health Behaviours.

BACKGROUND: Providing informal care has a negative effect on the caregiver's health and well-being, but little is known about how individuals respond to receiving informal care. Care recipients may improve their health behaviours to minimise the onerousness of caregiving and the stress faced by their carer from seeing a loved one in ill-health. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to examine whether informal care recipients internalise the potential for carer spillovers through changes in health behaviours. METHODS: We used data from 3250 older adults with care needs who took part in the UK Household Longitudinal Study between 2017 and 2019. We examined the response to informal care receipt in terms of the probability of engaging in four health behaviours: healthy diet, physical activity, smoking and alcohol consumption. We estimated average treatment effects using regression adjustment with inverse probability treatment weights, comparing individuals that received informal care to those receiving either formal or no care. RESULTS: We found that informal care receipt increased the probability of refraining from negative health behaviours (smoking and alcohol consumption) but reduced the probability of engaging in positive health behaviours (eating fruits and/or vegetables and physical activity). CONCLUSIONS: The asymmetric effects detected suggest that the underlying mechanisms are different, and care recipients may be engaging in risk and effort compensation between negative and positive health behaviours. Failure to account for the behavioural responses from informal care recipients may lead to under-estimation or over-estimation of the extent of caregiving burden and the effectiveness of interventions impacting informal carers.

How do family doctors respond to reduced waiting times for cancer diagnosis in secondary care?

Reducing waiting times is a priority in public health systems. Efforts of healthcare providers to shorten waiting times could be negated if they simultaneously induce substantial increases in demand. However, separating out the effects of changes in supply and demand on waiting times requires an exogenous change in one element. We examine the impact of a pilot programme in some English hospitals to shorten waiting times for urgent diagnosis of suspected cancer on family doctors' referrals. We examine referrals from 6,666 family doctor partnerships to 145 hospitals between 1st April 2012 and 31st March 2019. Five hospitals piloted shorter waiting times initiatives in 2017. Using continuous difference-in-differences regression, we exploit the pilot as a 'supply shifter' to estimate the effect of waiting times on referral volumes for two suspected cancer types: bowel and lung. The proportion of referred patients breaching two-week waiting times targets for suspected bowel cancer fell by 3.9 percentage points in pilot hospitals in response to the policy, from a baseline of 4.8%. Family doctors exposed to the pilot increased their referrals (demand) by 10.8%. However, the pilot was not successful for lung cancer, with some evidence that waiting times increased, and a corresponding reduction in referrals of -10.5%. Family doctor referrals for suspected cancer are responsive at the margin to waiting times. Healthcare providers may struggle to achieve long-term reductions in waiting times if supply-side improvements are offset by increases in demand.

Evaluating the Short-Term Costs and Benefits of a Nationwide Diabetes Prevention Programme in England: Retrospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Prevention programmes typically incur short-term costs and uncertain long-term benefits. We use the National Health Service (NHS) England Diabetes Prevention Programme (NHS-DPP) to investigate whether behaviour change programmes may be cost-effective even within the short-term participation period. METHODS: We analysed 384,611 referrals between June 2016 and March 2019. We estimated NHS costs using implementation costs and provider payments. We used linear regressions to relate utility changes to the number of sessions attended, based on responses to the five-level EQ-5D (EQ-5D-5L) at baseline and final session for 18,959 participants. We then calculated the corresponding quality-adjusted life year (QALY) change for all 384,611 referrals by combining the estimated regression coefficients with the observed level of attendance, with individuals that did not attend any programme sessions being assumed to experience zero benefit. In secondary analysis, we added weight change, recorded for 18,105 participants to the regression and applied predicted values to all referrals with missing weight change values estimated using multiple imputation with chained equations. We then estimated the cost-per-QALY generated. RESULTS: Average cost per referral was £119 (standard deviation: £118; 2020 price year, UK £ Sterling). Each session attended was associated with a 0.0042 increase in utility (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.0025-0.0059). This generated 1,773 QALYs across all referrals (95% CI: 889-2,656). Cost-per-QALY was £24,929 (95% CI: £16,635-49,720) when implementation costs were excluded. Secondary analysis showed each session attended and kilogram of weight lost were associated with 0.0034 (95% CI: 0.0016-0.0051) and 0.0025 (95% CI: 0.0020-0.0031) increases in utility, respectively. These generated 1,542 QALYs, at a cost-per-QALY of £28,661 when implementation costs were excluded. CONCLUSION: Participants experienced small utility gains from session attendance and weight loss during their programme participation. These benefits alone made this low-cost behaviour change programme potentially cost-effective in the short-term.

Pay-for-Performance incentives for specialised services in England: a mixed methods evaluation.

BACKGROUND: A Pay-for-Performance (P4P) programme, known as Prescribed Specialised Services Commissioning for Quality and Innovation (PSS CQUIN), was introduced for specialised services in the English NHS in 2013/2014. These services treat patients with rare and complex conditions. We evaluate the implementation of PSS CQUIN contracts between 2016/2017 and 2018/2019. METHODS: We used a mixed methods evaluative approach. In the quantitative analysis, we used a difference-in-differences design to evaluate the effectiveness of ten PSS CQUIN schemes across a range of targeted outcomes. Potential selection bias was addressed using propensity score matching. We also estimated impacts on costs by scheme and financial year. In the qualitative analysis, we conducted semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions to gain insights into the complexities of contract design and programme implementation. Qualitative data analysis was based on the constant comparative method, inductively generating themes. RESULTS: The ten PSS CQUIN schemes had limited impact on the targeted outcomes. A statistically significant improvement was found for only one scheme: in the clinical area of trauma, the incentive scheme increased the probability of being discharged from Adult Critical Care within four hours of being clinically ready by 7%. The limited impact may be due to the size of the incentive payments, the complexity of the schemes' design, and issues around ownership, contracting and flexibility. CONCLUSION: The PSS CQUIN schemes had little or no impact on quality improvements in specialised services. Future P4P programmes in healthcare could benefit from lessons learnt from this study on incentive design and programme implementation.

Population, workforce, and organisational characteristics affecting appointment rates: a retrospective cross-sectional analysis in primary care.

BACKGROUND: The recent publication of data on appointment volumes for all general practices in England has enabled representative analysis of factors affecting appointment activity rates for the first time. AIM: To identify population, workforce, and organisational predictors of practice variations in appointment volume. DESIGN AND SETTING: A multivariable cross-sectional regression analysis of 6284 general practices in England was undertaken using data from August-October 2022. METHOD: Multivariable regression analyses was conducted. It related population age and deprivation, numbers of GPs, nurses, and other care professionals, and organisation characteristics to numbers of appointments by staff type and to proportions of appointments on the same or next day after booking. RESULTS: Appointment levels were higher at practices serving rural areas. Practices serving more deprived populations had more appointments with other care professionals but not GPs. One additional full-time equivalent (FTE) GP was associated with an extra 175 appointments over 3 months. Additional FTEs of other staff types were associated with larger differences in appointment rates (367 appointments per additional nurse and 218 appointments per additional other care professional over 3 months). There was evidence of substitution between staff types in appointment provision. Levels of staffing were not associated with proportions of same-or next-day appointments. CONCLUSION: Higher staffing levels are associated with more appointment provision, but not speed of appointment availability. New information on activity levels has shown evidence of substitution between GPs and other care professionals in appointment provision and demonstrated additional workload for practices serving deprived and rural areas.

Engagement with a nationally-implemented digital behaviour change intervention: Usage patterns over the 9-month duration of the National Health Service Digital Diabetes Prevention Programme.

Background: Digital behaviour change interventions may offer a scalable way to promote weight loss by increasing physical activity and improving diet. However, user engagement is necessary for such benefits to be achieved. There is a dearth of research that assesses engagement with nationally implemented digital programmes offered in routine practice. The National Health Service Digital Diabetes Prevention Programme (NHS-DDPP) is a nine-month digital behaviour change intervention delivered by independent providers for adults in England who are at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes. This study reports engagement with the NHS-DDPP for users enrolled onto the programme over the nine-month duration. Methods: Anonymous usage data was obtained for a cohort of service users (n = 1826) enrolled on the NHS-DDPP with three independent providers, between December 2020 and June 2021. Usage data were obtained for time spent in app, and frequency of use of NHS-DDPP intervention features in the apps including self-monitoring, goal setting, receiving educational content (via articles) and social support (via health coaches and group forums), to allow patterns of usage of these key features to be quantified across the nine-month intervention. Median usage was calculated within nine 30-day engagement periods to allow a longitudinal analysis of the dose of usage for each feature. Results: App usage declined from a median of 32 min (IQR 191) in month one to 0 min (IQR 14) in month nine. Users self-monitored their behaviours (e.g., physical activity and diet) a median of 117 times (IQR 451) in the apps over the nine-month programme. The open group discussion forums were utilised less regularly (accessed a median of 0 times at all time-points). There was higher engagement with some intervention features (e.g., goal setting) when support from a health coach was linked to those features. Conclusions: App usage decreased over the nine-month programme, although the rate at which the decrease occurred varied substantially between individuals and providers. Health coach support may promote engagement with specific intervention features. Future research should assess whether engagement with particular features of digital diabetes prevention programmes is associated with outcomes such as reduced bodyweight and HbA1c levels.

Improving Peer Online Forums (iPOF): protocol for a realist evaluation of peer online mental health forums to inform practice and policy.

INTRODUCTION: Peer online mental health forums are commonly used and offer accessible support. Positive and negative impacts have been reported by forum members and moderators, but it is unclear why these impacts occur, for whom and in which forums. This multiple method realist study explores underlying mechanisms to understand how forums work for different people. The findings will inform codesign of best practice guidance and policy tools to enhance the uptake and effectiveness of peer online mental health forums. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: In workstream 1, we will conduct a realist synthesis, based on existing literature and interviews with approximately 20 stakeholders, to generate initial programme theories about the impacts of forums on members and moderators and mechanisms driving these. Initial theories that are relevant for forum design and implementation will be prioritised for testing in workstream 2.Workstream 2 is a multiple case study design with mixed methods with several online mental health forums differing in contextual features. Quantitative surveys of forum members, qualitative interviews and Corpus-based Discourse Analysis and Natural Language Processing of forum posts will be used to test and refine programme theories. Final programme theories will be developed through novel triangulation of the data.Workstream 3 will run alongside workstreams 1 and 2. Key stakeholders from participating forums, including members and moderators, will be recruited to a Codesign group. They will inform the study design and materials, refine and prioritise theories, and codesign best policy and practice guidance. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was granted by Solihull Research Ethics Committee (IRAS 314029). Findings will be reported in accordance with RAMESES (Realist And MEta-narrative Evidence Syntheses: Evolving Standards) guidelines, published as open access and shared widely, along with codesigned tools. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN 62469166; the protocol for the realist synthesis in workstream one is prospectively registered at PROSPERO CRD42022352528.

Referral to the NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme and conversion from nondiabetic hyperglycaemia to type 2 diabetes mellitus in England: A matched cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: The NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (NDPP) is a behaviour change programme for adults who are at risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM): people with raised blood glucose levels, but not in the diabetic range, diagnosed with nondiabetic hyperglycaemia (NDH). We examined the association between referral to the programme and reducing conversion of NDH to T2DM. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Cohort study of patients attending primary care in England using clinical Practice Research Datalink data from 1 April 2016 (NDPP introduction) to 31 March 2020 was used. To minimise confounding, we matched patients referred to the programme in referring practices to patients in nonreferring practices. Patients were matched based on age (≥3 years), sex, and ≥365 days of NDH diagnosis. Random-effects parametric survival models evaluated the intervention, controlling for numerous covariates. Our primary analysis was selected a priori: complete case analysis, 1-to-1 practice matching, up to 5 controls sampled with replacement. Various sensitivity analyses were conducted, including multiple imputation approaches. Analysis was adjusted for age (at index date), sex, time from NDH diagnosis to index date, BMI, HbA1c, total serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, prescription of metformin, smoking status, socioeconomic status, a diagnosis of depression, and comorbidities. A total of 18,470 patients referred to NDPP were matched to 51,331 patients not referred to NDPP in the main analysis. Mean follow-up from referral was 482.0 (SD = 317.3) and 472.4 (SD = 309.1) days, for referred to NDPP and not referred to NDPP, respectively. Baseline characteristics in the 2 groups were similar, except referred to NDPP were more likely to have higher BMI and be ever-smokers. The adjusted HR for referred to NDPP, compared to not referred to NDPP, was 0.80 (95% CI: 0.73 to 0.87) (p < 0.001). The probability of not converting to T2DM at 36 months since referral was 87.3% (95% CI: 86.5% to 88.2%) for referred to NDPP and 84.6% (95% CI: 83.9% to 85.4%) for not referred to NDPP. Associations were broadly consistent in the sensitivity analyses, but often smaller in magnitude. As this is an observational study, we cannot conclusively address causality. Other limitations include the inclusion of controls from the other 3 UK countries, data not allowing the evaluation of the association between attendance (rather than referral) and conversion. CONCLUSIONS: The NDPP was associated with reduced conversion rates from NDH to T2DM. Although we observed smaller associations with risk reduction, compared to what has been observed in RCTs, this is unsurprising since we examined the impact of referral, rather than attendance or completion of the intervention.

Does recruiting patients to diabetes prevention programmes via primary care reinforce existing inequalities in care provision between general practices? A retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Primary care plays a crucial role in identifying patients' needs and referring at-risk individuals to preventive services. However, well-established variations in care delivery may be replicated in this prevention activity. OBJECTIVE: To examine whether recruiting patients to the English NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme via primary care reinforces existing inequalities in care provision between practices, in terms of clinical quality, accessibility and resources. METHODS: We generated annual practice-level counts of referrals across the first 4 years of the programme (June 2016 to March 2020). These were linked to 15 indicators of practice clinical quality, access and resources measured during 2018/19. We used random effects Poisson regressions to examine associations between referrals and these indicators, controlling for practice and population characteristics, for 6871 practices in England. RESULTS: On average, practices made 3.72 referrals per 1000 population annually and rates varied substantially between practices. Referral rates were positively associated with the quality of clinical care provided. A 1 SD higher level of achievement on Quality and Outcomes Framework diabetes indicators was associated with an 11% (95% CI: 8% to 14%) higher referral rate. This positive association was consistent across all five clinical quality indicators. There was no association between referral rates and accessibility, overall payments or staffing. Associations between referrals and receiving different supplementary payments over the core contract were mixed, with 8%-11% lower referral rates for some payments but not for others. CONCLUSION: Recruiting patients to diabetes prevention programmes via primary care reinforces existing inequalities between general practices in the clinical quality of care they provide. This leaves patients registered with practices providing lower quality clinical care even more disadvantaged. Providing additional support to lower quality practices or using alternative recruitment methods may be necessary to avoid differential engagement in prevention programmes from widening these variations and potential health inequalities further.

Population level impact of the NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme on incidence of type 2 diabetes in England: An observational study.

Background: The NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (DPP) is the first nationwide type 2 diabetes prevention programme targeting people with prediabetes. It was rolled out across England from 2016 in three waves. We evaluate the population level impact of the NHS DPP on incidence rates of type 2 diabetes. Methods: We use data from the National Diabetes Audit, which records all individuals across England who have been diagnosed with type 2 diabetes by 2019. We use difference-in-differences regression models to estimate the impact of the phased introduction of the DPP on type 2 diabetes incidence. We compare patients registered with the 3,282 general practices enrolled from 2016 (wave 1) and the 1,610 practices enrolled from 2017 (wave 2) to those registered with the 1,584 practices enrolled from 2018 (final wave). Findings: Incidence rates of type 2 diabetes in wave 1 practices in 2018 and 2019 were significantly lower than would have been expected in the absence of the DPP (difference-in-differences Incident Rate Ratio (IRR) = 0·938 (95% CI 0·905 to 0·972)). Incidence rates were also significantly lower than expected for wave 2 practices in 2019 (difference-in-differences IRR = 0·927 (95% CI 0·885 to 0·972)). These results remained consistent across several robustness checks. Interpretation: Introduction of the NHS DPP reduced population incidence of type 2 diabetes. Longer follow-up is required to explore whether these effects are maintained or if diabetes onset is delayed. Funding: This research was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (Health Services and Delivery Research, 16/48/07 - Evaluating the NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (NHS DPP): the DIPLOMA research programme (Diabetes Prevention - Long Term Multimethod Assessment)). The views and opinions expressed in this manuscript are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the NHS, the National Institute for Health and Care Research or the Department of Health and Social Care.

The diagonal approach: A theoretic framework for the economic evaluation of vertical and horizontal interventions in healthcare.

The diagonal approach is a health system funding concept wherein vertical approaches targeting specific diseases are combined with horizontal approaches intended to strengthen health systems broadly. This taxonomy can also be used to classify health system interventions as either vertical or horizontal. Previous studies have used mathematical programming to evaluate horizontal interventions, but these models have not allowed concurrent evaluation of different types of horizontal interventions or captured spillovers and intertemporal effects. This paper aims to develop a theoretic framework for the diagonal approach. The framework is articulated through integer programming, maximizing health benefits given constraints by identifying the optimal set of both vertical and horizontal interventions to fund. The theoretic framework for the diagonal approach is developed by synthesizing and expanding three prior works. The decision problem is synthesised to allow concurrent evaluation of three different types of horizontal interventions, those: (i) improving health system efficiency, (ii) improving capacity, and (iii) investing in new platforms. Linear programs are converted to integer form, relaxing previous assumptions related to constant returns to scale and divisibility of interventions. The framework is expanded to evaluate multiple budget constraints and options for new platforms. A new form for the value function is used to estimate the benefits of intervention combinations, capturing spillovers between vertical and horizontal interventions and dynamic returns to scale. The decision problem is specified inferotemporally, explicitly capturing the impact of the time horizon on the optimal choice set. Dynamic examples are provided to demonstrate the advantages of the diagonal approach over prior frameworks. This framework extends existing works, enabling simultaneous comparison of various combinations of both vertical and horizontal interventions, capturing spillovers and intertemporal effects. The diagonal approach framework defines decision problems flexibly and realistically, forming the basis for future applied work. Implementation would improve resource allocation and patient health outcomes.

Framework for identification and measurement of spillover effects in policy implementation: intended non-intended targeted non-targeted spillovers (INTENTS).

BACKGROUND: There is increasing awareness among researchers and policymakers of the potential for healthcare interventions to have consequences beyond those initially intended. These unintended consequences or "spillover effects" result from the complex features of healthcare organisation and delivery and can either increase or decrease overall effectiveness. Their potential influence has important consequences for the design and evaluation of implementation strategies and for decision-making. However, consideration of spillovers remains partial and unsystematic. We develop a comprehensive framework for the identification and measurement of spillover effects resulting from changes to the way in which healthcare services are organised and delivered. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review to map the existing literature on spillover effects in health and healthcare interventions and used the findings of this review to develop a comprehensive framework to identify and measure spillover effects. RESULTS: The scoping review identified a wide range of different spillover effects, either experienced by agents not intentionally targeted by an intervention or representing unintended effects for targeted agents. Our scoping review revealed that spillover effects tend to be discussed in papers only when they are found to be statistically significant or might account for unexpected findings, rather than as a pre-specified feature of evaluation studies. This hinders the ability to assess all potential implications of a given policy or intervention. We propose a taxonomy of spillover effects, classified based on the outcome and the unit experiencing the effect: within-unit, between-unit, and diagonal spillover effects. We then present the INTENTS framework: Intended Non-intended TargEted Non-Targeted Spillovers. The INTENTS framework considers the units and outcomes which may be affected by an intervention and the mechanisms by which spillover effects are generated. CONCLUSIONS: The INTENTS framework provides a structured guide for researchers and policymakers when considering the potential effects that implementation strategies may generate, and the steps to take when designing and evaluating such interventions. Application of the INTENTS framework will enable spillover effects to be addressed appropriately in future evaluations and decision-making, ensuring that the full range of costs and benefits of interventions are correctly identified.

Unseen patterns of preventable emergency care: Emergency department visits for ambulatory care sensitive conditions.

OBJECTIVE: Admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) are often used to measure potentially preventable emergency care. Visits to emergency departments with ACSCs may also be preventable care but are excluded from such measures if patients are not admitted. We established the extent and composition of this preventable emergency care. METHODS: We analysed 1,505,979 emergency department visits (5% of the national total) between 1 April 2015 and 31 March 2017 at six hospital Trusts in England, using International Classification of Diseases diagnostic coding. We calculated the number of visits for each ACSC and examined the proportions of these visits that did not result in admission by condition and patient characteristics. RESULTS: 11.1% of emergency department visits were for ACSCs. 55.0% of these visits did not result in hospital admission. Whilst the majority of ACSC visits were for acute rather than chronic conditions (59.4% versus 38.4%), acute visits were much more likely to conclude without admission (70.3% versus 33.4%). Younger, more deprived and ethnic minority patients were less likely to be admitted when they visited the emergency department with an ACSC. CONCLUSIONS: Over half of preventable emergency care is not captured by measures of admissions. The probability of admission at a preventable visit varies substantially between conditions and patient groups. Focussing only on admissions for ACSCs provides an incomplete and skewed picture of the types of conditions and patients receiving preventable care. Measures of preventable emergency care should include visits in addition to admissions.

The older prisoner health and social care assessment and plan (OHSCAP) versus treatment as usual: a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Older people are the fastest-growing demographic group among prisoners in England and Wales and they have complex health and social care needs. Their care is frequently ad hoc and uncoordinated. No previous research has explored how to identify and appropriately address the needs of older adults in prison. We hypothesised that the Older prisoner Health and Social Care Assessment and Plan (OHSCAP) would significantly increase the proportion of met health and social care needs 3 months after prison entry, compared to treatment as usual (TAU). METHODS: The study was a parallel randomised controlled trial (RCT) recruiting male prisoners aged 50 and over from 10 prisons in northern England. Participants received the OHSCAP or TAU. A clinical trials unit used minimisation with a random element as the allocation procedure. Data analysis was conducted blind to allocation status. The intervention group had their needs assessed using the OHSCAP tool and care plans were devised; processes that lasted approximately 30 min in total per prisoner. TAU included the standard prison health assessment and care. The intention to treat principle was followed. The trial was registered with the UK Clinical Research Network Portfolio (ISRCTN ID: 11841493) and was closed on 30 November 2016. RESULTS: Data were collected between 28 January 2014 and 06 April 2016. Two hundred and forty nine older prisoners were assigned TAU of which 32 transferred prison; 12 were released; 2 withdrew and 1 was deemed unsafe to interview. Two hundred and fifty three 3 prisoners were assigned the OHSCAP of which 33 transferred prison; 11 were released; 6 withdrew and 1 was deemed unsafe to interview. Consequently, data from 202 participants were analysed in each of the two groups. There were no significant differences in the number of unmet needs as measured by the Camberwell Assessment of Needs - Forensic Short Version (CANFOR-S). The mean number of unmet needs for the OHSCAP group at follow-up was 2.03 (SD = 2.07) and 2.06 (SD = 2.11) for the TAU group (mean difference = 0.088; 95% CI - 0.276 to 0.449, p = 0.621). No adverse events were reported. CONCLUSION: The OHSCAP was fundamentally not implemented as planned, partly due to the national prison staffing crisis that ensued during the study period. Therefore, those receiving the OHSCAP did not experience improved outcomes compared to those who received TAU. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials: ISRCTN11841493 , 25/10/2012.

The effects of structure, process and outcome incentives on primary care referrals to a national prevention programme.

Despite widespread use, evidence is sparse on whether financial incentives in healthcare should be linked to structure, process or outcome. We examine the impact of different incentive types on the quantity and effectiveness of referrals made by general practices to a new national prevention programme in England. We measured effectiveness by the number of referrals resulting in programme attendance. We surveyed local commissioners about their use of financial incentives and linked this information to numbers of programme referrals and attendances from 5170 general practices between April 2016 and March 2018. We used multivariate probit regressions to identify commissioner characteristics associated with the use of different incentive types and negative binomial regressions to estimate their effect on practice rates of referral and attendance. Financial incentives were offered by commissioners in the majority of areas (89%), with 38% using structure incentives, 69% using process incentives and 22% using outcome incentives. Compared to practices without financial incentives, neither structure nor process incentives were associated with statistically significant increases in referrals or attendances, but outcome incentives were associated with 84% more referrals and 93% more attendances. Outcome incentives were the only form of pay-for-performance to stimulate more participation in this national disease prevention programme.