How TK-TD and population models for aquatic macrophytes could support the risk assessment for plant protection products.

This case study of the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) workshop MODELINK demonstrates the potential use of mechanistic effects models for macrophytes to extrapolate from effects of a plant protection product observed in laboratory tests to effects resulting from dynamic exposure on macrophyte populations in edge-of-field water bodies. A standard European Union (EU) risk assessment for an example herbicide based on macrophyte laboratory tests indicated risks for several exposure scenarios. Three of these scenarios are further analyzed using effect models for 2 aquatic macrophytes, the free-floating standard test species Lemna sp., and the sediment-rooted submerged additional standard test species Myriophyllum spicatum. Both models include a toxicokinetic (TK) part, describing uptake and elimination of the toxicant, a toxicodynamic (TD) part, describing the internal concentration-response function for growth inhibition, and a description of biomass growth as a function of environmental factors to allow simulating seasonal dynamics. The TK-TD models are calibrated and tested using laboratory tests, whereas the growth models were assumed to be fit for purpose based on comparisons of predictions with typical growth patterns observed in the field. For the risk assessment, biomass dynamics are predicted for the control situation and for several exposure levels. Based on specific protection goals for macrophytes, preliminary example decision criteria are suggested for evaluating the model outputs. The models refined the risk indicated by lower tier testing for 2 exposure scenarios, while confirming the risk associated for the third. Uncertainties related to the experimental and the modeling approaches and their application in the risk assessment are discussed. Based on this case study and the assumption that the models prove suitable for risk assessment once fully evaluated, we recommend that 1) ecological scenarios be developed that are also linked to the exposure scenarios, and 2) quantitative protection goals be set to facilitate the interpretation of model results for risk assessment.

A Bayesian approach to assessing the uncertainty in estimating bioconcentration factors in earthworms--the example of quinoxyfen.

BACKGROUND: Quinoxyfen is a fungicide of the phenoxyquinoline class used to control powdery mildew, Uncinula necator (Schw.) Burr. Owing to its high persistence and strong sorption in soil, it could represent a risk for soil organisms if they are exposed at ecologically relevant concentrations. The objective of this paper is to predict the bioconcentration factors (BCFs) of quinoxyfen in earthworms, selected as a representative soil organism, and to assess the uncertainty in the estimation of this parameter. Three fields in each of four vineyards in southern and northern Italy were sampled over two successive years. RESULTS: The measured BCFs varied over time, possibly owing to seasonal changes and the consequent changes in behaviour and ecology of earthworms. Quinoxyfen did not accumulate in soil, as the mean soil concentrations at the end of the 2 year monitoring period ranged from 9.16 to 16.0 µg kg⁻¹ dw for the Verona province and from 23.9 to 37.5 µg kg⁻¹ dw for the Taranto province, with up to eight applications per season. To assess the uncertainty of the BCF in earthworms, a probabilistic approach was used, firstly by building with weighted bootstrapping techniques a generic probabilistic density function (PDF) accounting for variability and incompleteness of knowledge. The generic PDF was then used to derive prior distribution functions, which, by application of Bayes' theorem, were updated with the new measurements and a posterior distribution was finally created. CONCLUSION: The study is a good example of probabilistic risk assessment. The means of mean and SD posterior estimates of log BCFworm (2.06, 0.91) are the 'best estimate values'. Further risk assessment of quinoxyfen and other phenoxyquinoline fungicides and realistic representative scenarios for modelling exercises required for future authorization and post-authorization requirements can now use this value as input.

Caged midge larvae (Chironomus riparius) for the assessment of metal bioaccumulation from sediments in situ.

First-stage larvae of the midge Chironomus riparius were exposed in small enclosures at 19 sites located in three different river basins in Flanders (Belgium). Sediments were sampled and sieved at 200 microm at all exposure sites. A layer of approximately 2 cm of sediment was placed in each cage and 100 midge larvae were added. Cages were placed in watercourses where resident midge larvae were present. Accumulation of Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Ni, and Zn was determined after four weeks of exposure when larvae had reached the fourth stage. Comparing metal levels between caged and resident larvae revealed no significant differences. A significant correlation between metal levels in caged and resident larvae was found when all sites were considered. However, such correlation was low (r2 = 0.28) for Pb. The highly significant r2 values found for Cu and Ni probably were due to only one site. Metal levels in tissue were related to levels in water and sediment, taking into account some sediment characteristics (particle size distribution and organic carbon) and oxygen level in the water. To determine the relative importance of these different sediment factors contributing to the variation in metal accumulation by the chironomids, nonlinear regression models were constructed. With the models used, 56.1, 32.2, and 57.4% of the variation for Cd, Pb, and Zn, respectively, could be described. None and 26.9% of the variation could be described for Cu and Ni, respectively. Among the environmental factors, organic carbon and oxygen levels in water were important in describing the accumulation of metals.

Herbicide risk assessment for non-target aquatic plants: sulfosulfuron--a case study.

Herbicides entering the aquatic environment by spray drift, run-off and leaching to field drains may cause adverse effects on non-target aquatic vegetation. The potential for such effects has typically been evaluated from tests with floating, monocotyledonous Lemna sp. However, concern has been expressed as to whether this species could be used to indicate potential effects on other vegetation types, particularly rooted, submerged, emergent or dicotyledonous species. In 1997, the Centre for Aquatic Plant Management undertook development of new tests based on the additional species, Glyceria maxima (Hartm) Holmb, Lagarosiphon major (Ridl) Moss and Myriophyllum spicatum L. The resulting methodology was used to assess the effects of the sulfonylurea herbicide, sulfosulfuron on these species. Data presented here demonstrate that exposure to initial sulfosulfuron concentrations of 3.33 microg litre(-1) for up to 21 days was tolerated by these species and that adverse effects were observed only when plants were exposed to initial concentrations of 3.33 and 10 microg litre(-1) for 70 days. As the occurrence of such high initial concentrations for long periods is unlikely in the aquatic environment, sulfosulfuron is not expected to have adverse effects on the growth of these species. This study has also demonstrated that G maxima, L major and M spicatum grown in small outdoor tanks can be used successfully to assess the effects of crop-protection products on non-target aquatic flora.