Twenty-year survival following lung transplantation.

Background: Lung transplantation median survival has seen improvements due to recognition of short-term survival factors but continues to trail behind other solid organs due to limited understanding of long-term survivorship. Given the creation of the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database in 1986, it was difficult to accrue data on long-term survivors until recently. This study characterizes factors impacting lung transplant survival beyond 20 years, conditional to 1-year survival. Methods: Lung transplant recipients listed in UNOS from 1987 to 2002 who survived to 1 post-transplant year were reviewed. Kaplan-Meier and adjusted Cox regression analyses were performed at 20 and 10 years to identify risk factors associated with long-term outcomes independent of their short-term effects. Results: A total of 6,172 recipients were analyzed, including 472 (7.6%) recipients who lived 20+ years. Factors associated with increased likelihood of 20-year survival were female-to-female gender match, recipient age 25-44, waitlist time >1 year, human leukocyte antigen (HLA) mismatch level 3, and donor cause of death: head trauma. Factors associated with decreased 20-year survival included recipient age ≥55, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease/emphysema (COPD/E) diagnosis, donor smoking history >20 pack-years, unilateral transplant, blood groups O&AB, recipient glomerular filtration rate (GFR) <10 mL/min, and donor GFR 20-29 mL/min. Conclusions: This is the first study identifying factors associated with multiple-decade survival following lung transplant in the United States. Despite its challenges, long-term survival is possible and more likely in younger females in good waitlist condition without COPD/E who receive a bilateral allograft from a non-smoking, gender-matched donor of minimal HLA mismatch. Further analysis of the molecular and immunologic implications of these conditions are warranted.

Survival Benefit of Solid-Organ Transplantation: 10-Year Update.

IMPORTANCE: Transplantation has transformed into a burgeoning field that is rapidly evolving to optimize organ distribution and survival outcomes. The years since 2012 (the last comprehensive study) have seen changes in transplantation, such as advances in immunotherapy and novel indices, that necessitate an updated analysis of survival benefit. DESIGN: Our goal was to determine the survival benefit for solid-organ transplants in the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database for a three decade period and provide updates on advancements since 2012. Our retrospective analysis examined data containing U.S. patient records from September 1, 1987, to September 1, 2021. RESULTS: We found that 3,430,272 life-years were saved over our transplant period (4.33 life-years saved per patient); kidney-1,998,492 life-years; liver -767,414; heart-435,312; lung-116,625; pancreas-kidney-123,463; pancreas-30,575; intestine-7901. After matching, 3,296,851 life-years were saved. Life-years saved and median survival increased for all organs between 2012 and 2021. Compared to 2012, median survival increased in kidney (from 12.4 to 14.76 years), liver (from 11.6 to 14.59), heart (9.5 to 11.73), lung (5.2 to 5.63), pancreas-kidney (from 14.5 to 16.88), pancreas (from 13.3 to 16.10). When compared to 2012, the percent transplanted increased in kidney, liver, heart, lung, and intestine, while pancreas-kidney and pancreas show decreased percent transplanted. CONCLUSION: Our study underscores the tremendous survival benefits of solid organ transplantation (over 3.4 million life-years saved) and shows improvements since 2012. Our study also highlights areas of transplantation, notably pancreas transplants, that may necessitate reinvigorated attention.

Trends in marginal lung allograft survival: Advanced-age donors improve.

INTRODUCTION: Although lung demand continues to outpace supply, 75% of potential donor lungs are discarded without being transplanted in the United States. To identify the discarded cohorts best suited to alleviate the lung shortage and reduce waitlist mortality, we explored changes in survival over time for five marginal donor definitions: age >60 years, smoking history >20 pack-years, PaO2 /FiO2  < 300 mmHg, purulent bronchoscopic secretions, and chest radiograph infiltrates. METHODS: Our retrospective cohort study separated 27 803 lung recipients in the UNOS Database into three 5-year eras by transplant date: 2005-2009, 2010-2014, and 2015-2019. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression and Kaplan-Meier analysis with log-rank test were used to compare survival across the eras. RESULTS: Three definitions-low PaO2 /FiO2 , purulent bronchoscopic secretions, and abnormal chest radiographs-did not bear out as truly marginal, demonstrating lack of significantly elevated risk. Advanced donor age demonstrated considerable survival improvement (HR (95% CI): 1.47 (1.26-1.72) in 2005-2009 down to 1.14 (.97-1.35) for 2015-2019), with protective factors being recipients <60 years, moderate recipient BMI, and low Lung Allocation Score (LAS). Donors with smoking history failed to demonstrate any significant improvement (HR (95% CI): 1.09 (1.01-1.17) in 2005-2009 increasing to 1.22 (1.08-1.38) in 2015-2019). CONCLUSIONS: Advanced donor age, previously the most significant risk factor, has improved to near-benchmark levels, demonstrating the possibility for matching older donors to healthier non-elderly recipients in selected circumstances. Low PaO2 /FiO2 , bronchoscopic secretions, and abnormal radiographs demonstrated survival on par with standard donors. Significant donor smoking history, a moderate risk factor, has failed to improve.