An evaluation of statistical models of microcystin detection in lakes applied forward under varying climate conditions.

Algal blooms can threaten human health if cyanotoxins such as microcystin are produced by cyanobacteria. Regularly monitoring microcystin concentrations in recreational waters to inform management action is a tool for protecting public health; however, monitoring cyanotoxins is resource- and time-intensive. Statistical models that identify waterbodies likely to produce microcystin can help guide monitoring efforts, but variability in bloom severity and cyanotoxin production among lakes and years makes prediction challenging. We evaluated the skill of a statistical classification model developed from water quality surveys in one season with low temporal replication but broad spatial coverage to predict if microcystin is likely to be detected in a lake in subsequent years. We used summertime monitoring data from 128 lakes in Iowa (USA) sampled between 2017 and 2021 to build and evaluate a predictive model of microcystin detection as a function of lake physical and chemical attributes, watershed characteristics, zooplankton abundance, and weather. The model built from 2017 data identified pH, total nutrient concentrations, and ecogeographic variables as the best predictors of microcystin detection in this population of lakes. We then applied the 2017 classification model to data collected in subsequent years and found that model skill declined but remained effective at predicting microcystin detection (area under the curve, AUC ≥ 0.7). We assessed if classification skill could be improved by assimilating the previous years' monitoring data into the model, but model skill was only minimally enhanced. Overall, the classification model remained reliable under varying climatic conditions. Finally, we tested if early season observations could be combined with a trained model to provide early warning for late summer microcystin detection, but model skill was low in all years and below the AUC threshold for two years. The results of these modeling exercises support the application of correlative analyses built on single-season sampling data to monitoring decision-making, but similar investigations are needed in other regions to build further evidence for this approach in management application.

Consumption explains intraspecific variation in nutrient recycling stoichiometry in a desert fish.

Consumer-driven nutrient recycling can have substantial effects on primary production and patterns of nutrient limitation in aquatic ecosystems by altering the rates as well as the relative supplies of the key nutrients nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). While variation in nutrient recycling stoichiometry has been well-studied among species, the mechanisms that explain intraspecific variation in recycling N:P are not well-understood. We examined the relative importance of potential drivers of variation in nutrient recycling by the fish Gambusia marshi among aquatic habitats in the Cuatro Ciénegas basin of Coahuila, Mexico. There, G. marshi inhabits warm thermal springs with high predation pressure as well as cooler, surface runoff-fed systems with low predation pressure. We hypothesized that variation in food consumption among these habitats would drive intraspecific differences in excretion rates and N:P ratios. Stoichiometric models predicted that temperature alone should not cause substantial variation in excretion N:P, but that further reducing consumption rates should substantially increase excretion N:P. We performed temperature and diet ration manipulation experiments in the laboratory and found strong support for model predictions. We then tested these predictions in the field by measuring nutrient recycling rates and ratios as well as body stoichiometry of fish from nine sites that vary in temperature and predation pressure. Fish from warm, high-predation sites excreted nutrients at a lower N:P ratio than fish from cool, low-predation sites, consistent with the hypothesis that reduced consumption under reduced predation pressure had stronger consequences for P retention and excretion among populations than did variation in body stoichiometry. These results highlight the utility of stoichiometric models for predicting variation in consumer-driven nutrient recycling within a phenotypically variable species.

Stable isotope turnover and half-life in animal tissues: a literature synthesis.

Stable isotopes of carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur are used as ecological tracers for a variety of applications, such as studies of animal migrations, energy sources, and food web pathways. Yet uncertainty relating to the time period integrated by isotopic measurement of animal tissues can confound the interpretation of isotopic data. There have been a large number of experimental isotopic diet shift studies aimed at quantifying animal tissue isotopic turnover rate λ (%·day(-1), often expressed as isotopic half-life, ln(2)/λ, days). Yet no studies have evaluated or summarized the many individual half-life estimates in an effort to both seek broad-scale patterns and characterize the degree of variability. Here, we collect previously published half-life estimates, examine how half-life is related to body size, and test for tissue- and taxa-varying allometric relationships. Half-life generally increases with animal body mass, and is longer in muscle and blood compared to plasma and internal organs. Half-life was longest in ecotherms, followed by mammals, and finally birds. For ectotherms, different taxa-tissue combinations had similar allometric slopes that generally matched predictions of metabolic theory. Half-life for ectotherms can be approximated as: ln (half-life) = 0.22*ln (body mass) + group-specific intercept; n = 261, p<0.0001, r2 = 0.63. For endothermic groups, relationships with body mass were weak and model slopes and intercepts were heterogeneous. While isotopic half-life can be approximated using simple allometric relationships for some taxa and tissue types, there is also a high degree of unexplained variation in our models. Our study highlights several strong and general patterns, though accurate prediction of isotopic half-life from readily available variables such as animal body mass remains elusive.

Crayfish impact desert river ecosystem function and litter-dwelling invertebrate communities through association with novel detrital resources.

Shifts in plant species distributions due to global change are increasing the availability of novel resources in a variety of ecosystems worldwide. In semiarid riparian areas, hydric pioneer tree species are being replaced by drought-tolerant plant species as water availability decreases. Additionally, introduced omnivorous crayfish, which feed upon primary producers, allochthonous detritus, and benthic invertebrates, can impact communities at multiple levels through both direct and indirect effects mediated by drought-tolerant plants. We tested the impact of both virile crayfish (Orconectes virilis) and litter type on benthic invertebrates and the effect of crayfish on detrital resources across a gradient of riparian vegetation drought-tolerance using field cages with leaf litter bags in the San Pedro River in Southeastern Arizona. Virile crayfish increased breakdown rate of novel drought-tolerant saltcedar (Tamarix ramosissima), but did not impact breakdown of drought-tolerant seepwillow (Baccharis salicifolia) or hydric Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremontii) and Gooding's willow (Salix goodingii). Effects on invertebrate diversity were observed at the litter bag scale, but no effects were found at the cage scale. Crayfish decreased alpha diversity of colonizing macroinvertebrates, but did not affect beta diversity. In contrast, the drought-tolerant litter treatment decreased beta diversity relative to hydric litter. As drought-tolerant species become more abundant in riparian zones, their litter will become a larger component of the organic matter budget of desert streams which may serve to homogenize the litter-dwelling community and support elevated populations of virile crayfish. Through impacts at multiple trophic levels, crayfish have a significant effect on desert stream ecosystems.