Dose-Response Relationship in Patients with Liver Metastases from Neuroendocrine Neoplasms Undergoing Radioembolization with 90Y Glass Microspheres.

The benefit of multicompartment dosimetry in the radioembolization of neuroendocrine neoplasms is not firmly established. We retrospectively assessed its potential with patient outcome. Methods: Forty-three patients were eligible. The association of mean absorbed dose (MAD) for tumors and treatment response was tested per lesion with a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, and the association of MAD with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival was tested per patient using uni- and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Results: The area under the curve for treatment response based on MAD was 0.79 (cutoff, 196.6 Gy; P < 0.0001). For global PFS, grade (grade 2 vs. 1: hazard ratio [HR], 2.51; P = 0.042; grade 3 vs. 1: HR, 62.44; P < 0.001), tumor origin (HR, 6.58; P < 0.001), and MAD (HR, 0.998; P = 0.003) were significant. For overall survival, no prognostic parameters were significant. Conclusion: In line with prior publications, a MAD of more than 200 Gy seemed to favor treatment response. MAD was also associated with PFS and may be of interest for radioembolization planning for neuroendocrine neoplasm patients.

PET quantification performance of the oversize-volume-of-interest approach in the context of tumour dosimetry in radionuclide therapy planning.

OBJECTIVE: The partial-volume effect (PVE) is an important factor impairing tumour quantification in molecular imaging. The commonly used contour-volume-of-interest (contour-VOI) approach to correct for this effect employs phantom-based recovery coefficients. Applying oversize-VOIs could offer superior quantification accuracy in small lesions. The oversize-VOI approach uses a large oversize volume to determine the total tumour activity after applying a background correction. Aims of this study were to provide a procedure for the application of an oversize-VOI approach and to compare its performance to the contour-VOI approach in PET imaging. APPROACH: A sphere tumour model was simulated to determine the oversize diameter that contained 90%, 95%, and 98% of the total activity as a function of the tumour size. Experimental investigations involving phantom and clinical data were conducted on a digital PET/CT scanner. In the phantom investigation, 12 spherical tumour inserts (diameters ranging from 3.7 to 37.4 mm) containing18F-solution were used. The accuracy of the contour- and oversize-VOI approach was evaluated for different signal-to-background ratios (20 to 3). Clinically, both approaches were applied on PET/CT images acquired with18F-labelled prostate-specific membrane antigen in prostate cancer patients. MAIN RESULTS: From the tumour model, we deduced that an oversize-VOI of two PET spatial resolutions larger than the physical lesion diameter contains at least 98% of the total activity for lesions with diameters down to one PET spatial resolution, while minimizing the background contribution. Both approaches were robust against varying phantom and clinical imaging conditions. Performance of the oversize-VOI approach was favorable for lesions below 10 mm in diameter, whereas the contour-VOI approach was slightly more accurate for sizes above 10 mm. SIGNIFICANCE: The oversize-VOI approach facilitates image quantification of small tumours. It is simple and effective to correct for the PVE, and may be used in pre-therapeutic (small) tumour dosimetry.

Safety and Efficacy of Para-Aminohippurate Coinfusion for Renal Protection During Peptide Receptor Radiotherapy in Patients with Neuroendocrine Tumors.

Para-aminohippurate, also known as p-aminohippuric acid (PAH), is used clinically to measure effective renal plasma flow. Preclinically, it was shown to reduce 177Lu-DOTATOC uptake in the kidneys while improving bioavailability compared with amino acid (AA) coinfusion. We report the safety and efficacy of PAH coinfusion during peptide receptor radiotherapy in patients with neuroendocrine tumors. Methods: Twelve patients with metastatic or unresectable gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors received 177Lu-DOTATOC in 33 treatment cycles. Either 8 g of PAH or a mixture of 25 g of arginine and 25 g of lysine were coinfused. Safety was assessed by monitoring laboratory data, including hematologic and renal data, as well as electrolytes obtained before and 24 h after treatment. For radiation dosimetry, whole-body scans were performed at 1, 24, and 48 h and a SPECT/CT scan was performed at 48 h, along with blood sampling at 5 min and 0.5, 2, 4, 24, and 48 h after administration. Absorbed dose estimations for the kidneys and bone marrow were performed according to the MIRD concept. Results: In 15 treatment cycles, PAH was coinfused. No changes in mean creatinine level, glomerular filtration rate, and serum electrolytes were observed before or 24 h after treatment when using PAH protection (P ≥ 0.20), whereas serum chloride and serum phosphate increased significantly under AA (both P < 0.01). Kidney-absorbed dose coefficients were 0.60 ± 0.14 Gy/GBq with PAH and 0.53 ± 0.16 Gy/GBq with AA. Based on extrapolated cumulative kidney-absorbed doses for 4 cycles, 1 patient with PAH protection and 1 patient with AA protection in our patient group would exceed the 23-Gy conservative threshold. The bone marrow-absorbed dose coefficient was 0.012 ± 0.004 Gy/GBq with PAH and 0.012 ± 0.003 Gy/GBq with AA. Conclusion: PAH is a promising alternative to AA for renal protection during peptide receptor radiotherapy. Further research is required to systematically investigate the safety profile and radiation dosimetry at varying PAH plasma concentrations.

Biodistribution and radiation dosimetry of 124I-mIBG in adult patients with neural crest tumours and extrapolation to paediatric models.

AIM: Positron emission tomography (PET) using 124I-mIBG has been established for imaging and pretherapeutic dosimetry. Here, we report the first systematic analysis of the biodistribution and radiation dosimetry of 124I-mIBG in patients with neural crest tumours and project the results to paediatric patient models. METHODS: Adult patients with neural crest tumours who underwent sequential 124I-mIBG PET were included in this retrospective single-center analysis. PET data were acquired 4, 24, 48, and/or 120 h after administration of a mean of 43 MBq 124I-mIBG. Whole-body counting and blood sampling were performed at 2, 4, 24, 48 and 120 h after administration. Absorbed organ dose and effective dose coefficients were estimated in OLINDA/EXM 2.2 according to the MIRD formalism. Extrapolation to paediatric models was performed based on mass-fraction scaling of the organ-specific residence times. Biodistribution data for adults were also projected to 123I-mIBG and 131I-mIBG. RESULTS: Twenty-one patients (11 females, 10 males) were evaluated. For adults, the organs exposed to the highest dose per unit administered activity were urinary bladder (1.54 ± 0.40 mGy/MBq), salivary glands (0.77 ± 0.28 mGy/MBq) and liver (0.65 ± 0.22 mGy/MBq). Mean effective dose coefficient for adults was 0.25 ± 0.04 mSv/MBq (male: 0.24 ± 0.03 mSv/MBq, female: 0.26 ± 0.06 mSv/MBq), and increased gradually to 0.29, 0.44, 0.69, 1.21, and 2.94 mSv/MBq for the 15-, 10-, 5-, 1-years-old, and newborn paediatric reference patients. Projected mean effective dose coefficients for 123I-mIBG and 131I-mIBG for adults were 0.014 ± 0.002 mSv/MBq and 0.18 ± 0.04 mSv/MBq, respectively. CONCLUSION: PET-based derived radiation dosimetry data for 124I-mIBG from this study agreed well with historical projected data from ICRP 53. The effective dose coefficients presented here may aid in guidance for establishing weight-based activity administration protocols.

Quantification performance of silicon photomultiplier-based PET for small 18F-, 68Ga- and 124I-avid lesions in the context of radionuclide therapy planning.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to investigate conditions for reliable quantification of sub-centimeter lesions with low18F,68Ga, and124I uptake using a silicon photomultiplier-based PET/CT system. METHODS: A small tumor phantom was investigated under challenging but clinically realistic conditions resembling prostate and thyroid cancer lymph node metastases (6 spheres with 3.7-9.7 mm in diameter, 9 different activity concentrations ranging from about 0.25-25 kBq/mL, and a signal-to-background ratio of 20). Radionuclides with different positron branching ratios and prompt gamma coincidence contributions were investigated. Maximum-, contour-, and oversize-based partial volume effect (PVE) correction approaches were applied. Detection and quantification performance were estimated, considering a ±30 % deviation between imaged-derived and true activity concentrations as acceptable. A standard and a prolonged acquisition time and two image reconstruction algorithms (time-of-flight with/without point spread function modelling) were analyzed. Clinical data were evaluated to assess agreement of PVE-correction approaches indicating lesion quantification validity. RESULTS: The smallest 3.7-mm sphere was not visible. If the lesions were clearly observed, quantification was, except for a few cases, acceptable using contour- or oversized-based PVE-corrections. Quantification accuracy did not substantially differ between 18F, 68Ga, and 124I. No systematic differences between the analyzed reconstruction algorithms or shorter and larger acquisition times were observed. In the clinical evaluation of 20 lesions, an excellent statistical agreement between oversize- and contour-based PVE-corrections was observed. CONCLUSIONS: At the lower end of size (<10 mm) and activity concentration ranges of lymph-node metastases, quantification with reasonable accuracy is possible for 18F, 68Ga, and 124I, possibly allowing pre-therapeutic lesion dosimetry and individualized radionuclide therapy planning.

Voxel-Based Dosimetry Predicts Hepatotoxicity in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Undergoing Radioembolization with 90Y Glass Microspheres.

Personalized dosimetry holds promise to improve radioembolization treatment outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. To this end, tolerance absorbed doses for nontumor liver tissue are assessed by calculating the mean absorbed dose to the whole nontumor liver tissue (AD-WNTLT), which may be limited by its neglect of nonuniform dose distribution. Thus, we analyzed whether voxel-based dosimetry could be more accurate in predicting hepatotoxicity in HCC patients undergoing radioembolization. Methods: In total, 176 HCC patients were available for this retrospective analysis; of these, 78 underwent partial- and 98 whole-liver treatment. Posttherapeutic changes in bilirubin were graded using the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events. We performed voxel-based and multicompartment dosimetry using pretherapeutic 99mTc-labeled human serum albumin SPECT and contrast-enhanced CT/MRI and defined the following dosimetry parameters: AD-WNTLT; the nontumor liver tissue volume exposed to at least 20 Gy (V20), at least 30 Gy (V30), and at least 40 Gy (V40); and the threshold absorbed dose to the 20% (AD-20) and 30% (AD-30) of nontumor liver tissue with the lowest absorbed dose. Their impact on hepatotoxicity after 6 mo was analyzed using the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve; thresholds were identified using the Youden index. Results: The area under the curve for prediction of posttherapeutic grade 3+ increases in bilirubin was acceptable for V20 (0.77), V30 (0.78), and V40 (0.79), whereas it was low for AD-WNTLT (0.67). The predictive value could further be increased in the subanalysis of patients with whole-liver treatment, where a good discriminatory power was found for V20 (0.80), V30 (0.82), V40 (0.84), AD-20 (0.80), and AD-30 (0.82) and an acceptable discriminatory power was found for AD-WNTLT (0.63). The accuracies of V20 (P = 0.03), V30 (P = 0.009), V40 (P = 0.004), AD-20 (P = 0.04), and AD-30 (P = 0.02) were superior to that of AD-WNTLT but did not differ significantly from each other. The respective thresholds were 78% (V30), 72% (V40), and 43 Gy (AD-30). Statistical significance was not reached for partial-liver treatment. Conclusion: Voxel-based dosimetry may more accurately predict hepatotoxicity than multicompartment dosimetry in HCC patients undergoing radioembolization, which could enable dose escalation or deescalation with the intent to optimize treatment response. Our results indicate that a V40 of 72% may be particularly useful in whole-liver treatment. However, further research is warranted to validate these results.

Intraoperative Molecular Positron Emission Tomography Imaging for Intraoperative Assessment of Radical Prostatectomy Specimens.

In this prospective two-center feasibility study, we evaluate the diagnostic value of intraoperative ex vivo specimenPET/CT imaging of radical prostatectomy (RP) and lymphadenectomy specimens. Ten patients with high-risk prostate cancer underwent clinical prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) preoperatively on the day of surgery. Six patients received 68Ga-PSMA-11 and four 18F-PSMA-1007. Radioactivity of the resected specimen was measured again using a novel specimenPET/CT device (AURA10; XEOS Medical, Gent, Belgium) developed for intraoperative margin assessment. All index lesions of staging multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging could be visualized. Overall, specimenPET/CT correlated well with conventional PET/CT regarding detection of suspicious tracer foci (Pearson coefficient 0.935). In addition, specimenPET/CT demonstrated all lymph node metastases detected on conventional PET/CT (n = 3), as well as three previously undetected lymph node metastases. Importantly, all positive or close (<1 mm) surgical margins could be visualized in agreement with histopathology. In conclusion, specimenPET/CT enables detection of PSMA-avid lesions and warrants further investigation to tailor RP, based on a good correlation with final pathology. Future trials will prospectively compare ex vivo specimenPET/CT with a frozen section analysis for the detection of positive surgical margins and assessment of biochemical recurrence-free survival. Patient summary: In this report, we examined prostatectomy and lymphadenectomy specimens for suspicious positron emission tomography (PET) signals after preoperative tracer injection. It was found that in all cases, a good signal could be visualized, with a promising correlation of surface assessment compared with histopathology. We conclude that specimenPET imaging is feasible and may help improve oncological outcomes in the future.

Is There a Role of Artificial Intelligence in Preclinical Imaging?

This review provides an overview of the current opportunities for integrating artificial intelligence methods into the field of preclinical imaging research in nuclear medicine. The growing demand for imaging agents and therapeutics that are adapted to specific tumor phenotypes can be excellently served by the evolving multiple capabilities of molecular imaging and theranostics. However, the increasing demand for rapid development of novel, specific radioligands with minimal side effects that excel in diagnostic imaging and achieve significant therapeutic effects requires a challenging preclinical pipeline: from target identification through chemical, physical, and biological development to the conduct of clinical trials, coupled with dosimetry and various pre, interim, and post-treatment staging images to create a translational feedback loop for evaluating the efficacy of diagnostic or therapeutic ligands. In virtually all areas of this pipeline, the use of artificial intelligence and in particular deep-learning systems such as neural networks could not only address the above-mentioned challenges, but also provide insights that would not have been possible without their use. In the future, we expect that not only the clinical aspects of nuclear medicine will be supported by artificial intelligence, but that there will also be a general shift toward artificial intelligence-assisted in silico research that will address the increasingly complex nature of identifying targets for cancer patients and developing radioligands.

18F-PSMA Cerenkov Luminescence and Flexible Autoradiography Imaging in a Prostate Cancer Mouse Model and First Results of a Radical Prostatectomy Feasibility Study in Men.

Intraoperative identification of positive resection margins (PRMs) in high-risk prostate cancer (PC) needs improvement. Cerenkov luminescence imaging (CLI) with 68Ga-PSMA-11 is promising, although limited by low residual activity and artificial signals. Here, we aimed to assess the value of CLI and flexible autoradiography (FAR) with 18F-PSMA-1007. Methods: Mice bearing subcutaneous PSMA-avid RM1-PGLS tumors were administered 18F-PSMA-1007, and PET/CT was performed. After the animals had been killed, organs were excised and measured signals in CLI and FAR CLI were correlated with tracer activity concentrations (ACs) obtained from PET/CT. For clinical assessment, 7 high-risk PC patients underwent radical prostatectomy immediately after preoperative 18F-PSMA PET/CT. Contrast-to-noise ratios (CNRs) were calculated for both imaging modalities in intact specimens and after incision above the index lesion. Results: In the heterotopic in vivo mouse model (n = 5), CLI did not detect any lesion. FAR CLI detected a distinct signal in all mice, with a lowest AC of 7.25 kBq/mL (CNR, 5.48). After incision above the index lesion of the prostate specimen, no increased signal was observed at the cancer area in CLI. In contrast, using FAR CLI, a signal was detectable in 6 of 7 patients. The AC in the missed index lesion was 1.85 kBq/mL, resulting in a detection limit of at least 2.06 kBq/mL. Histopathology demonstrated 2 PRMs, neither of which was predicted by CLI or FAR CLI. Conclusion: 18F-PSMA FAR CLI was superior to CLI in tracer-related signal detectability. PC was could be visualized in radical prostatectomy down to 2.06 kBq/mL. However, the detection of PRMs was limited. Direct anatomic correlation of FAR CLI is challenging because of the scintillator overlay.

Routine Third Trimester Sonogram: Friend or Foe.

Several risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcomes can be identified by a routine third trimester ultrasound scan. However, there is also potential for harm, anxiety, and additional health care costs through unnecessary intervention due to false positive results. The evidence base informing the balance of risks and benefits of universal screening is inadequate to fully inform decision making. However, data on the diagnostic effectiveness of universal ultrasound suggest that better methods are required to result in net benefit, with the exception of screening for presentation near term, where a clinical and economic case can be made for its implementation.

Late Pregnancy Ultrasound to Screen for and Manage Potential Birth Complications in Nulliparous Women: A Cost-Effectiveness and Value of Information Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Fetal growth restriction is a major risk factor for stillbirth. A routine late-pregnancy ultrasound scan could help detect this, allowing intervention to reduce the risk of stillbirth. Such a scan could also detect fetal presentation and predict macrosomia. A trial powered to detect stillbirth differences would be extremely large and expensive. OBJECTIVES: It is therefore critical to know whether this would be a good investment of public research funds. The aim of this study is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of various late-pregnancy screening and management strategies based on current information and predict the return on investment from further research. METHODS: Synthesis of current evidence structured into a decision model reporting expected costs, quality-adjusted life-years, and net benefit over 20 years and value-of-information analysis reporting predicted return on investment from future clinical trials. RESULTS: Given a willingness to pay of £20 000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, the most cost-effective strategy is a routine presentation-only scan for all women. Universal ultrasound screening for fetal size is unlikely to be cost-effective. Research exploring the cost implications of induction of labor has the greatest predicted return on investment. A randomized, controlled trial with an endpoint of stillbirth is extremely unlikely to be a value for money investment. CONCLUSION: Given current value-for-money thresholds in the United Kingdom, the most cost-effective strategy is to offer all pregnant women a presentation-only scan in late pregnancy. A randomized, controlled trial of screening and intervention to reduce the risk of stillbirth following universal ultrasound to detect macrosomia or fetal growth restriction is unlikely to represent a value for money investment.

Fetal umbilical artery Doppler as a tool for universal third trimester screening: A systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy.

The objective of this study was to investigate the accuracy of universal third trimester umbilical artery (UA) Doppler to predict adverse pregnancy outcome at term. We searched Medline, EMBASE, the Cochrane library and ClinicalTrials.gov from inception to October 2020 and we also analyzed previously unpublished data from a prospective cohort study of nulliparous women, the Pregnancy Outcome Prediction (POP) study. We included studies that performed a third-trimester ultrasound scan in unselected, low or mixed risk populations, excluding studies which only included high risk pregnancies. Meta-analysis was performed using the hierarchal summary receiver operating characteristic curve (HSROC) analysis and bivariate logit-normal models. We identified 13 studies (including the POP study) involving 67,764 pregnancies which met our inclusion criteria. The overall quality was variable and only six studies (N = 5777 patients) blinded clinicians to the UA Doppler result. The summary sensitivity and positive likelihood ratio (LR) for small for gestational age (SGA; birthweight <10th centile) were 21.7% (95% CI 13.2-33.6%) and 2.65 (95% CI 1.89-3.72) respectively. The summary positive LR for NICU admission and metabolic acidosis were 1.35 (95% CI 0.93-1.97) and 1.34 (95% CI 0.86-2.08) respectively. The results were similar in the POP study: associations with SGA (positive LR 2.66 [95% CI 2.11-3.36]) and severe SGA (birthweight <3rd centile; positive LR 3.27 [95% CI 2.29-4.68]) but no statistically significant association with neonatal morbidity. We conclude that third trimester UA Doppler has moderate predictive accuracy for small for gestational age but not for indicators of neonatal morbidity in unselected and low risk pregnancies.

Universal late pregnancy ultrasound screening to predict adverse outcomes in nulliparous women: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Currently, pregnant women are screened using ultrasound to perform gestational aging, typically at around 12 weeks' gestation, and around the middle of pregnancy. Ultrasound scans thereafter are performed for clinical indications only. OBJECTIVES: We sought to assess the case for offering universal late pregnancy ultrasound to all nulliparous women in the UK. The main questions addressed were the diagnostic effectiveness of universal late pregnancy ultrasound to predict adverse outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of either implementing universal ultrasound or conducting further research in this area. DESIGN: We performed diagnostic test accuracy reviews of five ultrasonic measurements in late pregnancy. We conducted cost-effectiveness and value-of-information analyses of screening for fetal presentation, screening for small for gestational age fetuses and screening for large for gestational age fetuses. Finally, we conducted a survey and a focus group to determine the willingness of women to participate in a future randomised controlled trial. DATA SOURCES: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library from inception to June 2019. REVIEW METHODS: The protocol for the review was designed a priori and registered. Eligible studies were identified using keywords, with no restrictions for language or location. The risk of bias in studies was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2) tool. Health economic modelling employed a decision tree analysed via Monte Carlo simulation. Health outcomes were from the fetal perspective and presented as quality-adjusted life-years. Costs were from the perspective of the public sector, defined as NHS England, and the costs of special educational needs. All costs and quality-adjusted life-years were discounted by 3.5% per annum and the reference case time horizon was 20 years. RESULTS: Umbilical artery Doppler flow velocimetry, cerebroplacental ratio, severe oligohydramnios and borderline oligohydramnios were all either non-predictive or weakly predictive of the risk of neonatal morbidity (summary positive likelihood ratios between 1 and 2) and were all weakly predictive of the risk of delivering a small for gestational age infant (summary positive likelihood ratios between 2 and 4). Suspicion of fetal macrosomia is strongly predictive of the risk of delivering a large infant, but it is only weakly, albeit statistically significantly, predictive of the risk of shoulder dystocia. Very few studies blinded the result of the ultrasound scan and most studies were rated as being at a high risk of bias as a result of treatment paradox, ascertainment bias or iatrogenic harm. Health economic analysis indicated that universal ultrasound for fetal presentation only may be both clinically and economically justified on the basis of existing evidence. Universal ultrasound including fetal biometry was of borderline cost-effectiveness and was sensitive to assumptions. Value-of-information analysis indicated that the parameter that had the largest impact on decision uncertainty was the net difference in cost between an induced delivery and expectant management. LIMITATIONS: The primary literature on the diagnostic effectiveness of ultrasound in late pregnancy is weak. Value-of-information analysis may have underestimated the uncertainty in the literature as it was focused on the internal validity of parameters, which is quantified, whereas the greatest uncertainty may be in the external validity to the research question, which is unquantified. CONCLUSIONS: Universal screening for presentation at term may be justified on the basis of current knowledge. The current literature does not support universal ultrasonic screening for fetal growth disorders. FUTURE WORK: We describe proof-of-principle randomised controlled trials that could better inform the case for screening using ultrasound in late pregnancy. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017064093. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 15. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Ultrasound scans allow doctors to check on the health of an unborn infant. Usually, all pregnant women receive a scan at about 3 months and about 5 months of pregnancy. After that, women are offered a scan during birth only if they have risk factors or if a problem develops. Problems can arise in the later stages of pregnancy, including issues with the infant's growth or whether or not the infant is breech. Some of these problems may be prevented if a scan is carried out, but scans can also be inaccurate. When they are, a woman may receive unnecessary treatment, which could even harm her or her infant. In this study we set out to review previous research about how good ultrasound scanning is at detecting infants who may be born with a condition. This study focused on detecting if the infant was too big or too small. Unfortunately, much of the previous research was not carried out to a high standard. Scanning can detect the size of a infant relatively well, but it is much less clear if scanning can predict complications that may harm the infant during birth. We also studied the costs and outcomes of scanning. We calculated the extra cost required to scan every woman and compared this with the extra benefits from preventing complications. One thing that ultrasound scans detect is whether the infant is presenting head first or bottom first (a 'breech presentation'), as infants presenting breech have high risks of complications. Scanning all women to check whether or not their infant is presenting breech seems to be cost-effective and the cost savings may even be higher than the cost of implementation, although this depends on how much the scan would cost. Whether or not it is worthwhile scanning all infants to see if they are above or below the thresholds for normal size is less clear. A larger research study could provide more reliable numbers from which to draw a conclusion. We show how such a study could be designed, so that a single study could tell us both how well scans can predict adverse outcomes and how helpful this information is.

Universal third-trimester ultrasonic screening using fetal macrosomia in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome: A systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of screening for macrosomia is not well established. One of the critical elements of an effective screening program is the diagnostic accuracy of a test at predicting the condition. The objective of this study is to investigate the diagnostic effectiveness of universal ultrasonic fetal biometry in predicting the delivery of a macrosomic infant, shoulder dystocia, and associated neonatal morbidity in low- and mixed-risk populations. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a predefined literature search in Medline, Excerpta Medica database (EMBASE), the Cochrane library and ClinicalTrials.gov from inception to May 2020. No language restrictions were applied. We included studies where the ultrasound was performed as part of universal screening and those that included low- and mixed-risk pregnancies and excluded studies confined to high risk pregnancies. We used the estimated fetal weight (EFW) (multiple formulas and thresholds) and the abdominal circumference (AC) to define suspected large for gestational age (LGA). Adverse perinatal outcomes included macrosomia (multiple thresholds), shoulder dystocia, and other markers of neonatal morbidity. The risk of bias was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool. Meta-analysis was carried out using the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and the bivariate logit-normal (Reitsma) models. We identified 41 studies that met our inclusion criteria involving 112,034 patients in total. These included 11 prospective cohort studies (N = 9986), one randomized controlled trial (RCT) (N = 367), and 29 retrospective cohort studies (N = 101,681). The quality of the studies was variable, and only three studies blinded the ultrasound findings to the clinicians. Both EFW >4,000 g (or 90th centile for the gestational age) and AC >36 cm (or 90th centile) had >50% sensitivity for predicting macrosomia (birthweight above 4,000 g or 90th centile) at birth with positive likelihood ratios (LRs) of 8.74 (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.84-11.17) and 7.56 (95% CI 5.85-9.77), respectively. There was significant heterogeneity at predicting macrosomia, which could reflect the different study designs, the characteristics of the included populations, and differences in the formulas used. An EFW >4,000 g (or 90th centile) had 22% sensitivity at predicting shoulder dystocia with a positive likelihood ratio of 2.12 (95% CI 1.34-3.35). There was insufficient data to analyze other markers of neonatal morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that suspected LGA is strongly predictive of the risk of delivering a large infant in low- and mixed-risk populations. However, it is only weakly (albeit statistically significantly) predictive of the risk of shoulder dystocia. There was insufficient data to analyze other markers of neonatal morbidity.

Screening for breech presentation using universal late-pregnancy ultrasonography: A prospective cohort study and cost effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite the relative ease with which breech presentation can be identified through ultrasound screening, the assessment of foetal presentation at term is often based on clinical examination only. Due to limitations in this approach, many women present in labour with an undiagnosed breech presentation, with increased risk of foetal morbidity and mortality. This study sought to determine the cost effectiveness of universal ultrasound scanning for breech presentation near term (36 weeks of gestational age [wkGA]) in nulliparous women. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Pregnancy Outcome Prediction (POP) study was a prospective cohort study between January 14, 2008 and July 31, 2012, including 3,879 nulliparous women who attended for a research screening ultrasound examination at 36 wkGA. Foetal presentation was assessed and compared for the groups with and without a clinically indicated ultrasound. Where breech presentation was detected, an external cephalic version (ECV) was routinely offered. If the ECV was unsuccessful or not performed, the women were offered either planned cesarean section at 39 weeks or attempted vaginal breech delivery. To compare the likelihood of different mode of deliveries and associated long-term health outcomes for universal ultrasound to current practice, a probabilistic economic simulation model was constructed. Parameter values were obtained from the POP study, and costs were mainly obtained from the English National Health Service (NHS). One hundred seventy-nine out of 3,879 women (4.6%) were diagnosed with breech presentation at 36 weeks. For most women (96), there had been no prior suspicion of noncephalic presentation. ECV was attempted for 84 (46.9%) women and was successful in 12 (success rate: 14.3%). Overall, 19 of the 179 women delivered vaginally (10.6%), 110 delivered by elective cesarean section (ELCS) (61.5%) and 50 delivered by emergency cesarean section (EMCS) (27.9%). There were no women with undiagnosed breech presentation in labour in the entire cohort. On average, 40 scans were needed per detection of a previously undiagnosed breech presentation. The economic analysis indicated that, compared to current practice, universal late-pregnancy ultrasound would identify around 14,826 otherwise undiagnosed breech presentations across England annually. It would also reduce EMCS and vaginal breech deliveries by 0.7 and 1.0 percentage points, respectively: around 4,196 and 6,061 deliveries across England annually. Universal ultrasound would also prevent 7.89 neonatal mortalities annually. The strategy would be cost effective if foetal presentation could be assessed for £19.80 or less per woman. Limitations to this study included that foetal presentation was revealed to all women and that the health economic analysis may be altered by parity. CONCLUSIONS: According to our estimates, universal late pregnancy ultrasound in nulliparous women (1) would virtually eliminate undiagnosed breech presentation, (2) would be expected to reduce foetal mortality in breech presentation, and (3) would be cost effective if foetal presentation could be assessed for less than £19.80 per woman.

Retosiban Prevents Stretch-Induced Human Myometrial Contractility and Delays Labor in Cynomolgus Monkeys.

Context: Stretch of the myometrium promotes its contractility and is believed to contribute to the control of parturition at term and to the increased risk of preterm birth in multiple pregnancies. Objective: To determine the effects of the putative oxytocin receptor (OTR) inverse agonist retosiban on (1) the contractility of human myometrial explants and (2) labor in nonhuman primates. Design: Human myometrial biopsies were obtained at planned term cesarean, and explants were exposed to stretch in the presence and absence of a range of drugs, including retosiban. The in vivo effects of retosiban were determined in cynomolgus monkeys. Results: Prolonged mechanical stretch promoted myometrial extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK)1/2 phosphorylation. Moreover, stretch-induced stimulation of myometrial contractility was prevented by ERK1/2 inhibitors. Retosiban (10 nM) prevented stretch-induced stimulation of myometrial contractility and phosphorylation of ERK1/2. Moreover, the inhibitory effect of retosiban on stretch-induced ERK1/2 phosphorylation was prevented by coincubation with a 100-fold excess of a peptide OTR antagonist, atosiban. Compared with vehicle-treated cynomolgus monkeys, treatment with oral retosiban (100 to 150 days of gestational age) reduced the risk of spontaneous delivery (hazard ratio = 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.60, P = 0.015). Conclusions: The OTR acts as a uterine mechanosensor, whereby stretch increases myometrial contractility through agonist-free activation of the OTR. Retosiban prevents this through inverse agonism of the OTR and, in vivo, reduced the likelihood of spontaneous labor in nonhuman primates. We hypothesize that retosiban may be an effective preventative treatment of preterm birth in high-risk multiple pregnancies, an area of unmet clinical need.

The Effect of an Oxytocin Receptor Antagonist (Retosiban, GSK221149A) on the Response of Human Myometrial Explants to Prolonged Mechanical Stretch.

Multiple pregnancy is a major cause of spontaneous preterm birth, which is related to uterine overdistention. The objective of this study was to determine whether an oxytocin receptor antagonist, retosiban (GSK221149A), inhibited the procontractile effect of stretch on human myometrium. Myometrial biopsies were obtained at term planned cesarean delivery (n = 12). Each biopsy specimen was dissected into 8 strips that were exposed in pairs to low or high stretch (0.6 or 2.4 g) in the presence of retosiban (1 µM) or vehicle (dimethylsulfoxide) for 24 hours. Subsequently, we analyzed the contractile responses to KCl and oxytocin in the absence of retosiban. We found that incubation under high stretch in vehicle alone increased the response of myometrial explants to both KCl (P = .007) and oxytocin (P = .01). However, there was no statistically significant effect of stretch when explants were incubated with retosiban (P = .3 and .2, respectively). Incubation with retosiban in low stretch had no statistically significant effect on the response to either KCl or oxytocin (P = .8 and >.9, respectively). Incubation with retosiban in high stretch resulted in a statistically significant reduction (median fold change, interquartile range, P) in the response to both KCl (0.74, 0.60-1.03, P = .046) and oxytocin (0.71, 0.53-0.91, P = .008). The greater the effect of stretch on explants from a given patient, the greater was the inhibitory effect of retosiban (r = -0.65, P = .02 for KCl and r= -0.73, P = .007 for oxytocin). These results suggest that retosiban prevented stretch-induced stimulation of human myometrial contractility. Retosiban treatment is a potential approach for preventing preterm birth in multiple pregnancy.

Birth weight percentile and the risk of term perinatal death.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the association between birth weight percentile and the risk of perinatal death at term in relation to the cause of death. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of all term singleton births in delivery units in Scotland between 1992 and 2008 (n=784,576), excluding perinatal deaths ascribed to congenital anomaly. RESULTS: There were 1,700 perinatal deaths in the cohort, which were not the result of congenital anomaly (21.7/10,000 women at term). We observed a reversed J-shaped association between birth weight percentile and the risk of antepartum stillbirth in all women, but the associations significantly differed (P<.001) according to smoking status. The highest risk (adjusted odds ratio referent to 21st-80th percentile, 95% confidence interval) among nonsmokers was for birth weight third or less percentile (10.5, 8.2-13.3), but there were also positive associations for birth weight percentiles 4th-10th (3.8, 3.0-4.8), 11th-20th (1.9, 1.5-2.4), and 98th-100th (1.8, 1.3-2.4). Among smokers, the associations with being small were weaker and the associations with being large were stronger. We also observed a reversed J-shaped association between birth weight percentile and the risk of delivery-related perinatal death (ie, intrapartum stillbirth or neonatal death), but there was no interaction with smoking. The highest risk was for birth weight greater than the 97th percentile (2.3, 1.6-3.3), but there were also associations with third or less percentile (2.1, 1.4-3.1), 4th-10th (1.8, 1.4-2.4), and 11th-20th (1.5, 1.2-2.0). Analysis of the attributable fraction indicated that approximately one in three antepartum stillbirths and one in six delivery-related deaths at term could be related to birth weight percentile outside the range 21st-97th percentile. CONCLUSION: Effective detection of variation in fetal size at term has potential as a screening test for the risk of perinatal death. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II.