RESUMEN
It is impossible to address the many complex needs of respiratory virus surveillance with a single system. Therefore, multiple surveillance systems and complementary studies must fit together as tiles in a "mosaic" to provide a complete picture of the risk, transmission, severity, and impact of respiratory viruses of epidemic and pandemic potential. Below we present a framework (WHO Mosaic Respiratory Surveillance Framework) to assist national authorities to identify priority respiratory virus surveillance objectives and the best approaches to meet them; to develop implementation plans according to national context and resources; and to prioritize and target technical assistance and financial investments to meet most pressing needs.
Asunto(s)
Gripe Humana , Virus , Humanos , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Pandemias/prevención & controlRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Simulation exercises can functionally validate World Health Organization (WHO) International Health Regulations (IHR 2005) core capacities. In 2018, the Vietnam Ministry of Health (MOH) conducted a full-scale exercise (FSX) in response to cases of severe viral pneumonia with subsequent laboratory confirmation for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) to evaluate the country's early warning and response capabilities for high-risk events. METHODS: An exercise planning team designed a complex fictitious scenario beginning with one case of severe viral pneumonia presenting at the hospital level and developed all the materials required for the exercise. Actors, controllers and evaluators were trained. In August 2018, a 3-day exercise was conducted in Quang Ninh province and Hanoi city, with participation of public health partners at the community, district, province, regional and national levels. Immediate debriefings and an after-action review were conducted after all exercise activities. Participants assessed overall exercise design, conduction and usefulness. RESULTS: FSX findings demonstrated that the event-based surveillance component of the MOH surveillance system worked optimally at different administrative levels. Detection and reporting of signals at the community and health facility levels were appropriate. Triage, verification and risk assessment were successfully implemented to identify a high-risk event and trigger timely response. The FSX identified infection control, coordination with internal and external response partners and process documentation as response challenges. Participants positively evaluated the exercise training and design. CONCLUSIONS: This exercise documents the value of exercising surveillance capabilities as part of a real-time operational scenario before facing a true emergency. The timing of this exercise and choice of disease scenario was particularly fortuitous given the subsequent appearance of COVID-19. As a result of this exercise and subsequent improvements made by the MOH, the country may have been better able to deal with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and contain it.
Asunto(s)
Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Vigilancia en Salud Pública/métodos , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/prevención & control , Humanos , Coronavirus del Síndrome Respiratorio de Oriente Medio/aislamiento & purificación , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Neumonía Viral/prevención & control , Vietnam/epidemiología , Organización Mundial de la SaludRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: In 2016-2017, Vietnam's Ministry of Health (MoH) implemented an event-based surveillance (EBS) pilot project in six provinces as part of Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA) efforts. This manuscript describes development and design of tools for monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of EBS in Vietnam. METHODS: A strategic EBS framework was developed based on the EBS implementation pilot project's goals and objectives. The main process and outcome components were identified and included input, activities, outputs, and outcome indicators. M&E tools were developed to collect quantitative and qualitative data. The tools included a supervisory checklist, a desk review tool, a key informant interview guide, a focus group discussion guide, a timeliness form, and an online acceptability survey. An evaluation team conducted field visits for assessment of EBS 5-9 months after implementation. RESULTS: The quantitative data collected provided evidence on the number and type of events that were being reported, the timeliness of the system, and the event-to-signal ratio. The qualitative and subjective data collected helped to increase understanding of the system's field utility and acceptance by field staff, reasons for non-compliance with established guidelines, and other factors influencing implementation. CONCLUSIONS: The use of M&E tools for the EBS pilot project in Vietnam provided data on signals and events reported, timeliness of reporting and response, perceptions and opinions of implementers, and fidelity of EBS implementation. These data were valuable for Vietnam's MoH to understand the function of the EBS program, and the success and challenges of implementing this project in Vietnam.
Asunto(s)
Monitoreo Epidemiológico , Salud Global , Brotes de Enfermedades , Humanos , Proyectos Piloto , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , VietnamRESUMEN
Community event-based surveillance aims to enhance the early detection of emerging public health threats and thus build health security. The Ministry of Health of Vietnam launched a community event-based surveillance pilot program in 6 provinces to improve the early warning functions of the existing surveillance system. An evaluation of the pilot program took place in 2017 and 2018. Data from this evaluation were analyzed to determine which factors were associated with increased detection and reporting. Results show that a number of small, local events were detected and reported through community event-based surveillance, supporting the notion that it would also facilitate the rapid detection and reporting of potentially larger events or outbreaks. The study showed the value of supportive supervision and monitoring to sustain community health worker reporting and the importance of conducting evaluations for community event-based surveillance programs to identify barriers to effective implementation.
Asunto(s)
Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Vigilancia de la Población/métodos , Evaluación de Programas y Proyectos de Salud , Salud Pública , Salud Global , Humanos , Proyectos Piloto , Medidas de Seguridad , VietnamRESUMEN
Surveillance and outbreak reporting systems in Vietnam required improvements to function effectively as early warning and response systems. Accordingly, the Ministry of Health of Vietnam, in collaboration with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, launched a pilot project in 2016 focusing on community and hospital event-based surveillance. The pilot was implemented in 4 of Vietnam's 63 provinces. The pilot demonstrated that event-based surveillance resulted in early detection and reporting of outbreaks, improved collaboration between the healthcare facilities and preventive sectors of the ministry, and increased community participation in surveillance and reporting.
Asunto(s)
Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Vigilancia de la Población , Instituciones de Salud , Hospitales , Humanos , Vietnam/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: In 2016, as a component of the Global Health Security Agenda, the Vietnam Ministry of Health expanded its existing influenza sentinel surveillance for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) to include testing for 7 additional viral respiratory pathogens. This article describes the steps taken to implement expanded SARI surveillance in Vietnam and reports data from 1 year of expanded surveillance. METHODS: The process of expanding the suite of pathogens for routine testing by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) included laboratory trainings, procurement/distribution of reagents, and strengthening and aligning SARI surveillance epidemiology practices at sentinel sites and regional institutes (RI). RESULTS: Surveillance data showed that of 4003 specimens tested by the RI laboratories, 20.2% (n = 810) were positive for influenza virus. Of the 3193 influenza-negative specimens, 41.8% (n = 1337) were positive for at least 1 non-influenza respiratory virus, of which 16.2% (n = 518), 13.4% (n = 428), and 9.6% (n = 308) tested positive for respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, and adenovirus, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The Government of Vietnam has demonstrated that expanding respiratory viral surveillance by strengthening and building upon an influenza platform is feasible, efficient, and practical.
Asunto(s)
Monitoreo Epidemiológico , Infecciones del Sistema Respiratorio/epidemiología , Virosis/epidemiología , Virus/aislamiento & purificación , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Orthomyxoviridae , Reacción en Cadena en Tiempo Real de la Polimerasa , Infecciones del Sistema Respiratorio/patología , Reacción en Cadena de la Polimerasa de Transcriptasa Inversa , Vietnam/epidemiología , Virosis/patología , Virus/clasificación , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
As of 13 July 2016, 13 countries have reported fetal Zika virus (ZIKV) infection. Here we report a case of fetal ZIKV infection that resulted from an infection originating in Vietnam.
RESUMEN
Capacity to receive, verify, analyze, assess, and investigate public health events is essential for epidemic intelligence. Public health Emergency Operations Centers (PHEOCs) can be epidemic intelligence hubs by 1) having the capacity to receive, analyze, and visualize multiple data streams, including surveillance and 2) maintaining a trained workforce that can analyze and interpret data from real-time emerging events. Such PHEOCs could be physically located within a ministry of health epidemiology, surveillance, or equivalent department rather than exist as a stand-alone space and serve as operational hubs during nonoutbreak times but in emergencies can scale up according to the traditional Incident Command System structure.
Asunto(s)
Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Salud Global , Modelos Organizacionales , Administración en Salud Pública , Camerún , Urgencias Médicas , Humanos , Estudios de Casos Organizacionales , Vigilancia de la Población , Administración en Salud Pública/métodos , Vietnam , Recursos HumanosRESUMEN
The Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA) was launched in February 2014 to bring countries with limited capacity into compliance with the International Health Regulations (IHR) (2005). Recent international public health events, such as the appearance of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus and the reappearance of Ebola in West Africa, have highlighted the importance of early detection of disease events and the interconnectedness of countries. Surveillance systems that allow early detection and recognition of signal events, a public health infrastructure that allows rapid notification and information sharing within countries and across borders, a trained epidemiologic workforce, and a laboratory network that can respond appropriately and rapidly are emerging as critical components of an early warning and response system. This article focuses on 3 aspects of the GHSA that will lead to improved capacities for the detection and response to outbreaks as required by the IHR: (1) early detection and reporting of events, (2) laboratory capacity, and (3) a trained epidemiologic workforce.
Asunto(s)
Biovigilancia , Creación de Capacidad , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Epidemiología/organización & administración , Salud Global , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Humanos , Cooperación Internacional , Laboratorios/normas , Laboratorios/provisión & distribución , Recursos HumanosRESUMEN
The World Health Organization recommends vaccination of pregnant women for seasonal influenza that can also protect infants aged below 6 months. We estimated incidence and disease burden of influenza in hospitalised children below and above 6 months of age in Hong Kong during a 6 year period. Discharge diagnoses for all admissions to public Hong Kong Hospital Authority hospitals, recorded in a central computerised database (Clinical Management System, CMS), were analysed for the period April 2005 to March 2011. Incidence estimates of influenza disease by age group were derived from CMS ICD codes 487-487.99. Laboratory-confirmed influenza infections from a single surveillance hospital were then linked to the CMS entries to assess possible over- and under-diagnosis of influenza based on CMS codes alone. Influenza was recorded as any primary or any secondary diagnosis in 1.3% (1158/86,582) of infants aged above 6 days to below 6 months and 4.3% (20,230/471,482) of children above 6 days to below 18 years. The unadjusted incidence rates per 100,000 person-years based on any CMS diagnosis of influenza in all admission to Hong Kong public hospitals were 627 in the below 2 months of age group and 1762 in the 2 month to below 6 month group. Incidence of hospitalisation for influenza in children was highest from 2 months to below 6 months. In the absence of vaccines for children below 6 months of age, effective vaccination of pregnant women may have a significant impact on reducing influenza hospitalisations in this age group.
Asunto(s)
Costo de Enfermedad , Hospitalización , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Adolescente , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Hong Kong/epidemiología , Humanos , Incidencia , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , EmbarazoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005-2009 for 20 countries covering â¼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%-85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000-249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons <65 y. Limitations include lack of representation of low-income countries among single-country estimates and an inability to study subsequent pandemic waves (2010-2012). CONCLUSIONS: We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was â¼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons <65 y of age occurred, so that many more life-years were lost. The burden varied greatly among countries, corroborating early reports of far greater pandemic severity in the Americas than in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. A collaborative network to collect and analyze mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
Asunto(s)
Causas de Muerte , Subtipo H1N1 del Virus de la Influenza A , Gripe Humana/mortalidad , Pandemias , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribución por Edad , Anciano , Américas/epidemiología , Australasia/epidemiología , Preescolar , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Gripe Humana/virología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos Estadísticos , Estaciones del Año , Organización Mundial de la Salud , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
When the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic spread across the globe from April 2009 to August 2010, many WHO Member States used antiviral drugs, specifically neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) oseltamivir and zanamivir, to treat influenza patients in critical condition. Antivirals have been found to be effective in reducing severity and duration of influenza illness, and likely reduce morbidity; however, it is unclear whether NAIs used during the pandemic reduced H1N1 mortality. To assess the association between antivirals and influenza mortality, at an ecologic level, country-level data on supply of oseltamivir and zanamivir were compared to laboratory-confirmed H1N1 deaths (per 100 000 people) from July 2009 to August 2010 in 42 WHO Member States. From this analysis, it was found that each 10% increase in kilograms of oseltamivir, per 100 000 people, was associated with a 1·6% reduction in H1N1 mortality over the pandemic period [relative rate (RR) = 0·84 per log increase in oseltamivir supply]. Each 10% increase in kilogram of active zanamivir, per 100 000, was associated with a 0·3% reduction in H1N1 mortality (RR = 0·97 per log increase). While limitations exist in the inference that can be drawn from an ecologic evaluation, this analysis offers evidence of a protective relationship between antiviral drug supply and influenza mortality and supports a role for influenza antiviral use in future pandemics. This article summarises the original study described previously, which can be accessed through the following citation: Miller PE, Rambachan A, Hubbard RJ, Li J, Meyer AE, et al. (2012) Supply of Neuraminidase Inhibitors Related to Reduced Influenza A (H1N1) Mortality during the 2009-2010 H1N1 Pandemic: An Ecological Study. PLoS ONE 7(9): e43491.
Asunto(s)
Antivirales/uso terapéutico , Subtipo H1N1 del Virus de la Influenza A/aislamiento & purificación , Gripe Humana/tratamiento farmacológico , Gripe Humana/virología , Neuraminidasa/antagonistas & inhibidores , Proteínas Virales/antagonistas & inhibidores , Antivirales/provisión & distribución , Humanos , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Gripe Humana/mortalidad , Oseltamivir/provisión & distribución , Oseltamivir/uso terapéutico , Pandemias , Análisis de Supervivencia , Resultado del Tratamiento , Zanamivir/provisión & distribución , Zanamivir/uso terapéuticoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Seasonal influenza activity varies with geography and time of year. OBJECTIVE: To describe how pandemic influenza A(H1N1)2009 [A(H1N1)pdm09] activity varied during the 2009-2010 pandemic. METHODS: We analyzed influenza virological data compiled by the World Health Organization from June 2009-August 2010. We calculated weekly proportions of A(H1N1)pdm09-positive specimens out of all A(H1N1)pdm09-positive specimens detected during the study period for each country. We compared parameters of pandemic activity (e.g., peak A[H1N1]pdm09 weekly proportion [peak activity], number of weeks between the 5th and 95th percentiles of A(H1N1)pdm09 cumulative weekly proportion [duration of activity]) between countries in temperate and tropical-subtropical regions. We quantified the proportion of A(H1N1)pdm09 out of all influenza A specimens by country and correlated it with countries' central latitudes. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 80 countries (47 temperate, 33 tropical-subtropical). The median proportion of cases identified during the peak week was higher in temperate (0·12) than in tropical-subtropical (0·09) regions (P<0·01). The median duration of activity was longer in tropical-subtropical (27 weeks) than in temperate countries (20 weeks) (P < 0·01). In most temperate countries (98%), peak pandemic activity occurred during the fall-winter period. There was a positive correlation between country central latitude and proportion of A(H1N1)pdm09 out of all influenza A specimens (r: 0·76; P<0·01). CONCLUSIONS: The transmission of A(H1N1)pdm09 exhibited similarities with seasonal influenza transmission in that activity varied between temperate and tropical-subtropical countries and by time of year. Our findings suggest the potential utility of accounting for these factors during future pandemic planning.
Asunto(s)
Subtipo H1N1 del Virus de la Influenza A/aislamiento & purificación , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Gripe Humana/transmisión , Pandemias , Estaciones del Año , Clima , Geografía , Salud Global , Humanos , Gripe Humana/virologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The global impact of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic (H1N1pdm) is not well understood. OBJECTIVES: We estimate overall and age-specific prevalence of cross-reactive antibodies to H1N1pdm virus and rates of H1N1pdm infection during the first year of the pandemic using data from published and unpublished H1N1pdm seroepidemiological studies. METHODS: Primary aggregate H1N1pdm serologic data from each study were stratified in standardized age groups and evaluated based on when sera were collected in relation to national or subnational peak H1N1pdm activity. Seropositivity was assessed using well-described and standardized hemagglutination inhibition (HI titers ≥ 32 or ≥ 40) and microneutralization (MN ≥ 40) laboratory assays. The prevalence of cross-reactive antibodies to the H1N1pdm virus was estimated for studies using sera collected prior to the start of the pandemic (between 2004 and April 2009); H1N1pdm cumulative incidence was estimated for studies in which collected both pre- and post-pandemic sera; and H1N1pdm seropositivity was calculated from studies with post-pandemic sera only (collected between December 2009-June 2010). RESULTS: Data from 27 published/unpublished studies from 19 countries/administrative regions - Australia, Canada, China, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong SAR, India, Iran, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Reunion Island, Singapore, United Kingdom, United States, and Vietnam - were eligible for inclusion. The overall age-standardized pre-pandemic prevalence of cross-reactive antibodies was 5% (95%CI 3-7%) and varied significantly by age with the highest rates among persons ≥ 65 years old (14% 95%CI 8-24%). Overall age-standardized H1N1pdm cumulative incidence was 24% (95%CI 20-27%) and varied significantly by age with the highest in children 5-19 (47% 95%CI 39-55%) and 0-4 years old (36% 95%CI 30-43%). CONCLUSIONS: Our results offer unique insight into the global impact of the H1N1 pandemic and highlight the need for standardization of seroepidemiological studies and for their inclusion in pre-pandemic preparedness plans. Our results taken together with recent global pandemic respiratory-associated mortality estimates suggest that the case fatality ratio of the pandemic virus was approximately 0.02%.
Asunto(s)
Anticuerpos Antivirales/inmunología , Subtipo H1N1 del Virus de la Influenza A/inmunología , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Factores de Edad , Humanos , Subtipo H1N1 del Virus de la Influenza A/genética , Subtipo H1N1 del Virus de la Influenza A/aislamiento & purificación , Gripe Humana/inmunología , Pandemias , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Serological studies can detect infection with a novel influenza virus in the absence of symptoms or positive virology, providing useful information on infection that goes beyond the estimates from epidemiological, clinical and virological data. During the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic, an impressive number of detailed serological studies were performed, yet the majority of serological data were available only after the first wave of infection. This limited the ability to estimate the transmissibility and severity of this novel infection, and the variability in methodology and reporting limited the ability to compare and combine the serological data. OBJECTIVES: To identify best practices for conduct and standardisation of serological studies on outbreak and pandemic influenza to inform public policy. METHODS/SETTING: An international meeting was held in February 2011 in Ottawa, Canada, to foster the consensus for greater standardisation of influenza serological studies. RESULTS: Best practices for serological investigations of influenza epidemiology include the following: classification of studies as pre-pandemic, outbreak, pandemic or inter-pandemic with a clearly identified objective; use of international serum standards for laboratory assays; cohort and cross-sectional study designs with common standards for data collection; use of serum banks to improve sampling capacity; and potential for linkage of serological, clinical and epidemiological data. Advance planning for outbreak studies would enable a rapid and coordinated response; inclusion of serological studies in pandemic plans should be considered. CONCLUSIONS: Optimising the quality, comparability and combinability of influenza serological studies will provide important data upon emergence of a novel or variant influenza virus to inform public health action.
Asunto(s)
Notificación de Enfermedades/métodos , Monitoreo Epidemiológico , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Guías de Práctica Clínica como Asunto , Salud Pública/métodos , Canadá/epidemiología , Humanos , Pruebas SerológicasRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The influenza A (H1N1) pandemic swept across the globe from April 2009 to August 2010 affecting millions. Many WHO Member States relied on antiviral drugs, specifically neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) oseltamivir and zanamivir, to treat influenza patients in critical condition. Such drugs have been found to be effective in reducing severity and duration of influenza illness, and likely reduced morbidity during the pandemic. However, it is less clear whether NAIs used during the pandemic reduced H1N1 mortality. METHODS: Country-level data on supply of oseltamivir and zanamivir were used to predict H1N1 mortality (per 100,000 people) from July 2009 to August 2010 in forty-two WHO Member States. Poisson regression was used to model the association between NAI supply and H1N1 mortality, with adjustment for economic, demographic, and health-related confounders. RESULTS: After adjustment for potential confounders, each 10% increase in kilograms of oseltamivir, per 100,000 people, was associated with a 1.6% reduction in H1N1 mortality over the pandemic period (relative rate (RR) = 0.84 per log increase in oseltamivir supply). While the supply of zanamivir was considerably less than that of oseltamivir in each Member State, each 10% increase in kilogram of active zanamivir, per 100,000, was associated with a 0.3% reduction in H1N1 mortality (RR = 0.97 per log increase). CONCLUSION: While there are limitations to the ecologic nature of these data, this analysis offers evidence of a protective relationship between antiviral drug supply and influenza mortality and supports a role for influenza antiviral use in future pandemics.
Asunto(s)
Inhibidores Enzimáticos/provisión & distribución , Inhibidores Enzimáticos/uso terapéutico , Subtipo H1N1 del Virus de la Influenza A/fisiología , Gripe Humana/tratamiento farmacológico , Gripe Humana/mortalidad , Neuraminidasa/antagonistas & inhibidores , Pandemias/prevención & control , Antivirales/farmacología , Antivirales/provisión & distribución , Antivirales/uso terapéutico , Geografía , Humanos , Subtipo H1N1 del Virus de la Influenza A/efectos de los fármacos , Neuraminidasa/metabolismo , Oseltamivir/provisión & distribución , Oseltamivir/uso terapéutico , Distribución de Poisson , Análisis de Regresión , Factores Socioeconómicos , Organización Mundial de la Salud , Zanamivir/provisión & distribución , Zanamivir/uso terapéuticoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The global burden of disease attributable to seasonal influenza virus in children is unknown. We aimed to estimate the global incidence of and mortality from lower respiratory infections associated with influenza in children younger than 5 years. METHODS: We estimated the incidence of influenza episodes, influenza-associated acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI), and influenza-associated severe ALRI in children younger than 5 years, stratified by age, with data from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Oct 31, 2010, and 16 unpublished population-based studies. We applied these incidence estimates to global population estimates for 2008 to calculate estimates for that year. We estimated possible bounds for influenza-associated ALRI mortality by combining incidence estimates with case fatality ratios from hospital-based reports and identifying studies with population-based data for influenza seasonality and monthly ALRI mortality. FINDINGS: We identified 43 suitable studies, with data for around 8 million children. We estimated that, in 2008, 90 million (95% CI 49-162 million) new cases of influenza (data from nine studies), 20 million (13-32 million) cases of influenza-associated ALRI (13% of all cases of paediatric ALRI; data from six studies), and 1 million (1-2 million) cases of influenza-associated severe ALRI (7% of cases of all severe paediatric ALRI; data from 39 studies) occurred worldwide in children younger than 5 years. We estimated there were 28,000-111,500 deaths in children younger than 5 years attributable to influenza-associated ALRI in 2008, with 99% of these deaths occurring in developing countries. Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any one setting. INTERPRETATION: Influenza is a common pathogen identified in children with ALRI and results in a substantial burden on health services worldwide. Sufficient data to precisely estimate the role of influenza in childhood mortality from ALRI are not available. FUNDING: WHO; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Asunto(s)
Salud Global , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Infecciones del Sistema Respiratorio/epidemiología , Estaciones del Año , Preescolar , Humanos , Incidencia , Lactante , Gripe Humana/complicaciones , Infecciones del Sistema Respiratorio/complicacionesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Since the start of the 2009 influenza A pandemic (H1N1pdm), the World Health Organization and its member states have gathered information to characterize the clinical severity of H1N1pdm infection and to assist policy makers to determine risk groups for targeted control measures. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data were collected on approximately 70,000 laboratory-confirmed hospitalized H1N1pdm patients, 9,700 patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), and 2,500 deaths reported between 1 April 2009 and 1 January 2010 from 19 countries or administrative regions--Argentina, Australia, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Madagascar, Mexico, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Thailand, the United States, and the United Kingdom--to characterize and compare the distribution of risk factors among H1N1pdm patients at three levels of severity: hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths. The median age of patients increased with severity of disease. The highest per capita risk of hospitalization was among patients <5 y and 5-14 y (relative risk [RR]â=â3.3 and 3.2, respectively, compared to the general population), whereas the highest risk of death per capita was in the age groups 50-64 y and ≥65 y (RRâ=â1.5 and 1.6, respectively, compared to the general population). Similarly, the ratio of H1N1pdm deaths to hospitalizations increased with age and was the highest in the ≥65-y-old age group, indicating that while infection rates have been observed to be very low in the oldest age group, risk of death in those over the age of 64 y who became infected was higher than in younger groups. The proportion of H1N1pdm patients with one or more reported chronic conditions increased with severity (medianâ=â31.1%, 52.3%, and 61.8% of hospitalized, ICU-admitted, and fatal H1N1pdm cases, respectively). With the exception of the risk factors asthma, pregnancy, and obesity, the proportion of patients with each risk factor increased with severity level. For all levels of severity, pregnant women in their third trimester consistently accounted for the majority of the total of pregnant women. Our findings suggest that morbid obesity might be a risk factor for ICU admission and fatal outcome (RRâ=â36.3). CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that risk factors for severe H1N1pdm infection are similar to those for seasonal influenza, with some notable differences, such as younger age groups and obesity, and reinforce the need to identify and protect groups at highest risk of severe outcomes. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
Asunto(s)
Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Subtipo H1N1 del Virus de la Influenza A/patogenicidad , Gripe Humana/mortalidad , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos/estadística & datos numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Índice de Masa Corporal , Niño , Preescolar , Enfermedad Crónica/epidemiología , Enfermedad Crónica/mortalidad , Interpretación Estadística de Datos , Femenino , Salud Global , Humanos , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Gripe Humana/virología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Oportunidad Relativa , Pandemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Embarazo , Prevalencia , Factores de Riesgo , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
UNLABELLED: INTRODUCTION AND SETTING: Our analysis compares the most comprehensive epidemiologic and virologic surveillance data compiled to date for laboratory-confirmed H1N1pdm patients between 1 April 2009 - 31 January 2010 from five temperate countries in the Southern Hemisphere-Argentina, Australia, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa. OBJECTIVE: We evaluate transmission dynamics, indicators of severity, and describe the co-circulation of H1N1pdm with seasonal influenza viruses. RESULTS: In the five countries, H1N1pdm became the predominant influenza strain within weeks of initial detection. South Africa was unique, first experiencing a seasonal H3N2 wave, followed by a distinct H1N1pdm wave. Compared with the 2007 and 2008 influenza seasons, the peak of influenza-like illness (ILI) activity in four of the five countries was 3-6 times higher with peak ILI consultation rates ranging from 35/1,000 consultations/week in Australia to 275/100,000 population/week in New Zealand. Transmission was similar in all countries with the reproductive rate ranging from 1.2-1.6. The median age of patients in all countries increased with increasing severity of disease, 4-14% of all hospitalized cases required critical care, and 26-68% of fatal patients were reported to have ≥1 chronic medical condition. Compared with seasonal influenza, there was a notable downward shift in age among severe cases with the highest population-based hospitalization rates among children <5 years old. National population-based mortality rates ranged from 0.8-1.5/100,000. CONCLUSIONS: The difficulty experienced in tracking the progress of the pandemic globally, estimating its severity early on, and comparing information across countries argues for improved routine surveillance and standardization of investigative approaches and data reporting methods.