Understanding the vulnerability of tree species to anthropogenic threats is important for the efficient planning of restoration and conservation efforts. We quantified and compared the effects of future climate change and four current threats (fire, habitat conversion, overgrazing and overexploitation) on the 50 most common tree species of the tropical dry forests of northwestern Peru and southern Ecuador. We used an ensemble modelling approach to predict species distribution ranges, employed freely accessible spatial datasets to map threat exposures, and developed a trait-based scoring approach to estimate species-specific sensitivities, using differentiated trait weights in accordance with their expected importance in determining species sensitivities to specific threats. Species-specific vulnerability maps were constructed from the product of the exposure maps and the sensitivity estimates. We found that all 50 species face considerable threats, with an average of 46% of species' distribution ranges displaying high or very high vulnerability to at least one of the five threats. Our results suggest that current levels of habitat conversion, overexploitation and overgrazing pose larger threats to most of the studied species than climate change. We present a spatially explicit planning strategy for species-specific restoration and conservation actions, proposing management interventions to focus on (a) in situ conservation of tree populations and seed collection for tree planting activities in areas with low vulnerability to climate change and current threats; (b) ex situ conservation or translocation of populations in areas with high climate change vulnerability; and (c) active planting or assisted regeneration in areas under high current threat vulnerability but low climate change vulnerability, provided that interventions are in place to lower threat pressure. We provide an online, user-friendly tool to visualize both the vulnerability maps and the maps indicating priority restoration and conservation actions.
Conservation of Natural Resources , Trees , Climate Change , Ecuador , Forests , Peru
Systematic investigations of the upper forest line (UFL) primarily concentrate on mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, whereas studies of Neotropical UFLs are still fragmentary. This article outlines the extraordinary high tree diversity at the UFL within the Andean Depression and unravels the links between the comparatively low position of the local UFL, high tree-species diversity, and climate. On the basis of Gentry's rapid inventory methodology for the tropics, vegetation sampling was conducted at 12 UFL sites, and local climate (temperature, wind, precipitation, and soil moisture) was investigated at six sites. Monotypic forests dominated by Polylepis were only found at the higher located margins of the Andean Depression while the lower situated core areas were characterized by a species-rich forest, which lacked the elsewhere dominant tree-species Polylepis. In total, a remarkably high tree-species number of 255 tree species of 40 different plant families was found. Beta-diversity was also high with more than two complete species turnovers. A non-linear relationship between the floristic similarity of the investigated study sites and elevation was detected. Temperatures at the investigated study sites clearly exceeded 5.5°C, the postulated threshold value for the upper tree growth limit in the tropics. Instead, quasi-permanent trade winds, high precipitation amounts, and high soil water contents affect the local position of the UFL in a negative way. Interestingly, most of the above-mentioned factors are also contributing to the high species richness. The result is a combination of a clearly marked upper forest line depression combined with an extraordinary forest line complexity, which was an almost unknown paradox.
