Unraveling the unknown: Adaptive spatial planning to enhance climate resilience for the endangered Swamp Grass-babbler (Laticilla cinerascens) with habitat connectivity and complexity approach.

The endangered and poorly known Swamp Grass-babbler, Laticilla cinerascens (Passeriformes: Pellorneidae), confronts critical threats and vulnerability due to its specific habitat requirements and restricted populations in the northeastern region of the Indian Subcontinent. This study investigates the distribution of the species, habitat quality, geometry and shape complexity of connectivity among the protected areas (PAs), and responses to climate change in Northeast India under different climate change pathways by utilizing ensemble distribution models, and ecological metrics. From the total distribution extent (1,42,000 km2), approximately 9366 km2 (6.59 %) is identified as the suitable habitat for this threatened species. Historically centered around Dibru Saikhowa National Park (DSNP), the species faced a drastic decline due to anthropogenic activities and alteration in land use and lover cover. The study also reveals a significant decline in suitable habitat for L. cinerascens in future climate scenarios, with alarming reductions under SSP126 (>10 % in the timeframe 2041-2060 and > 30 % from 2061 to 2080), SSP245 (>90 % in both time periods), and SSP585 (>90 % in both timeframes) from the present scenario. At present, DSNP has the most suitable habitat within the distribution range but is projected to decline (>90 %) under more severe climate change scenarios, as observed in other PAs. Landscape fragmentation analysis indicates a shift in habitat geometry, highlighting the intricate impact of climate change. It predicts a substantial 343 % increase (in the SSP126) in small habitat patches in the future. Connectivity analysis among PAs shows a significant shift, with a decline exceeding 20 %. The analysis of shape complexity and connectivity geometry reveals a significant increase of over 220 % in the fragmentation of connectivity among PAs between 2061 and 2080 under the SSP585 climate change scenario compared to the present conditions. The study underscores the urgent need for conservation actions, emphasizing the complex interplay of climate change, habitat suitability, and fragmentation. Prioritizing PAs with suitable habitats and assessing their connectivity is crucial. Adaptive management strategies are essential to address ongoing environmental changes and safeguard biodiversity. Future research in critical areas is needed to establish long-term monitoring programs to lead/extend effective conservation strategies.

Distribution Model Reveals Rapid Decline in Habitat Extent for Endangered Hispid Hare: Implications for Wildlife Management and Conservation Planning in Future Climate Change Scenarios.

The hispid hare, Caprolagus hispidus, belonging to the family Leporidae is a small grassland mammal found in the southern foothills of the Himalayas, in India, Nepal, and Bhutan. Despite having an endangered status according to the IUCN Red List, it lacks studies on its distribution and is threatened by habitat loss and land cover changes. Thus, the present study attempted to assess the habitat suitability using the species distribution model approach for the first time and projected its future in response to climate change, habitat, and urbanization factors. The results revealed that out of the total geographical extent of 188,316 km2, only 11,374 km2 (6.03%) were identified as suitable habitat for this species. The results also revealed that habitat significantly declined across its range (>60%) under certain climate change scenarios. Moreover, in the present climate scenario protected areas such as Shuklaphanta National Park (0.837) in Nepal exhibited the highest mean extent of habitat whereas, in India, Dibru-Saikhowa National Park (0.631) is found to be the most suitable habitat. Notably, two protected areas in Uttarakhand, India, specifically Corbett National Park (0.530) and Sonanandi Wildlife Sanctuary (0.423), have also demonstrated suitable habitats for C. hispidus. Given that protected areas showing a future rise in habitat suitability might also be regarded as potential sites for species translocation, this study underscores the importance of implementing proactive conservation strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on this species. It is essential to prioritize habitat restoration, focused protection measures, and further species-level ecological exploration to address these challenges effectively. Furthermore, fostering transboundary collaboration and coordinated conservation actions between nations is crucial to safeguarding the long-term survival of the species throughout its distribution range.

Matrilineal phylogeny and habitat suitability of the endangered spotted pond turtle (Geoclemys hamiltonii; Testudines: Geoemydidae): a two-dimensional approach to forecasting future conservation consequences.

The spotted pond turtle (Geoclemys hamiltonii) is a threatened and less explored species endemic to Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan. To infer structural variation and matrilineal phylogenetic interpretation, the present research decoded the mitogenome of G. hamiltonii (16,509 bp) using next-generation sequencing technology. The mitogenome comprises 13 protein-coding genes (PCGs), 22 transfer RNAs (tRNAs), two ribosomal RNAs (rRNAs), and one AT-rich control region (CR) with similar strand symmetry in vertebrates. The ATG was identified as a start codon in most of the PCGs except Cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (cox1), which started with the GTG codon. The non-coding CR of G. hamiltonii was determined to have a unique structure and variation in different domains and stem-loop secondary structure as compared with other Batagurinae species. The PCGs-based Bayesian phylogeny inferred strong monophyletic support for all Batagurinae species and confirmed the sister relationship of G. hamiltonii with Pangshura and Batagur taxa. We recommend generating more mitogenomic data for other Batagurinae species to confirm their population structure and evolutionary relationships. In addition, the present study aims to infer the habitat suitability and habitat quality of G. hamiltonii in its global distribution, both in the present and future climatic scenarios. We identify that only 58,542 km2 (7.16%) of the total range extent (817,341 km2) is suitable for this species, along with the fragmented habitats in both the eastern and western ranges. Comparative habitat quality assessment suggests the level of patch shape in the western range is higher (71.3%) compared to the eastern range. Our results suggest a massive decline of approximately 65.73% to 70.31% and 70.53% to 75.30% under ssp245 and ssp585 future scenarios, respectively, for the years between 2021-2040 and 2061-2080 compared with the current distribution. The present study indicates that proper conservation management requires greater attention to the causes and solutions to the fragmented distribution and safeguarding of this endangered species in the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins.

Mid-Pleistocene Transitions Forced Himalayan ibex to Evolve Independently after Split into an Allopatric Refugium.

Pleistocene glaciations had profound impact on the spatial distribution and genetic makeup of species in temperate ecosystems. While the glacial period trapped several species into glacial refugia and caused abrupt decline in large populations, the interglacial period facilitated population growth and range expansion leading to allopatric speciation. Here, we analyzed 40 genomes of four species of ibex and found that Himalayan ibex in the Pamir Mountains evolved independently after splitting from its main range about 0.1 mya following the Pleistocene species pump concept. Demographic trajectories showed Himalayan ibex experienced two historic bottlenecks, one each c. 0.8-0.5 mya and c. 50-30 kya, with an intermediate large population expansion c. 0.2-0.16 mya coinciding with Mid-Pleistocene Transitions. We substantiate with multi-dimensional evidence that Himalayan ibex is an evolutionary distinct phylogenetic species of Siberian ibex which need to be prioritized as Capra himalayensis for taxonomic revision and conservation planning at a regional and global scale.

Genetic Characterization and Insular Habitat Enveloping of Endangered Leaf-Nosed Bat, Hipposideros nicobarulae (Mammalia: Chiroptera) in India: Phylogenetic Inference and Conservation Implication.

The Nicobar leaf-nosed Bat (Hipposideros nicobarulae) was described in the early 20th century; however, its systematic classification has been debated for over 100 years. This endangered and endemic species has achieved species status through morphological data in the last 10 years. However, the genetic information and phylogenetic relationships of H. nicobarulae remain neglected. The generated mitochondrial cytochrome b gene (mtCytb) sequences (438 bp) of H. nicobarulae contains 53.42-53.65% AT composition and 1.82% variable sites. The studied species, H. nicobarulae maintains an 8.1% to 22.6% genetic distance from other Hipposideros species. The genetic divergence estimated in this study is congruent with the concept of gene speciation in bats. The Bayesian and Maximum-Likelihood phylogenies clearly discriminated all Hipposideros species and showed a sister relationship between H. nicobarulae and H. cf. antricola. Current mtCytb-based investigations of H. nicobarulae have confirmed the species status at the molecular level. Further, the MaxEnt-based species distribution modelling illustrates the most suitable habitat of H. nicobarulae (294 km2), of which the majority (171 km2) is located on Great Nicobar Island. The present study suggests rigorous sampling across the range, taxonomic coverage, the generation of multiple molecular markers (mitochondrial and nuclear), as well as more ecological information, which will help in understanding population genetic structure, habitat suitability, and the implementation of appropriate conservation action plans for H. nicobarulae and other Hipposideros species.

Whether curse or blessing: A counterintuitive perspective on global pest thrips infestation under climatic change with implications to agricultural economics.

The improvement and application of pest models to predict yield losses is still a challenge for the scientific community. However, pest models were targeted chiefly towards scheduling scouting or pesticide applications to deal with pest infestation. Thysanoptera (thrips) significantly impact the productivity of many economically important crops worldwide. Until now, no comprehensive study is available on the global distribution of pest thrips, as well as on the extent of cropland vulnerability worldwide. Further, nothing is known about the climate change impacts on these insects. Thus the present study was designed to map the global distribution and quantify the extent of cropland vulnerability in the present and future climate scenarios using data of identified pest thrips within the genus, i.e., Thrips, Frankliniella, and Scirtothrips. Our found significant niche contraction under the climate change scenarios and thrips may reside primarily in their thermal tolerance thresholds. About 3,98,160 km2 of cropland globally was found to be affected in the present scenario. However, it may significantly reduce to 5530 Km2 by 2050 and 1990 km2 by 2070. Further, the thrips distribution mostly getting restricted to Eastern North America, the North-western of the Indian sub-continent, and the north of Europe. Among all realms, thrips may lose ground in the Indo-Malayan realm at the most and get restricted to only 27 out of 825 terrestrial ecoregions. The agrarian communities of the infested regions may get benefit if these pests get wiped out, but on the contrary, we may lose species diversity. Moreover, the vacated niche may attract other invasive species, which may seriously impact the species composition and agricultural productivity. The present study findings can be used in making informed decisions about prioritizing future economic and research investments on the thrips in light of anticipated climate change impacts.

Multi-species occupancy modeling suggests interspecific interaction among the three ungulate species.

Species with sympatric distribution influence ecosystem dynamics and are impacted by the presence of other co-existing species. Assessing the coexistence and the role of interspecific interactions with the landscape variables is necessary to know the species co-occurrence in space. In the Indian Himalayan region, such studies are completely lacking due to limited efforts being made, mainly because of complex terrains and inaccessible landscape features. We used camera trapping and sign survey in a multi-species occupancy framework to understand the influence of environmental variables on occupancy and detection probability of species-specific and pair-wise interaction of the three ungulates in Uttarkashi. Our results concluded that individual species' occupancy probabilities were related both to the environmental variables and the presence or absence of other interacting species. Our top model showed evidence of interspecific interaction among species pairs, and the occupancy probability of species one varied in the presence or absence of another species. The overall activity patterns were similar among all the three species and were found active throughout the day. The activity overlap between sambar-barking deer (Dhat1 value = 0.85) was considerably higher than barking deer-goral (Dhat1 value = 0.78). The findings of the present study will be useful for the conservation and management of ungulates in the Indian Himalayan and adjoining regions.

From poops to planning: A broad non-invasive genetic survey of large mammals from the Indian Himalayan Region.

Large forested landscapes often harbour significant amount of biodiversity and support mankind by rendering various livelihood opportunities and ecosystem services. Their periodic assessment for health and ecological integrity is essential for timely mitigation of any negative impact of human use due to over harvesting of natural resources or unsustainable developmental activities. In this context, monitoring of mega fauna may provide reasonable insights about the connectivity and quality of forested habitats. In the present study, we conducted a largest non-invasive genetic survey to explore mammalian diversity and genetically characterized 13 mammals from the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR). We analyzed 4806 faecal samples using 103 autosomal microsatellites and with three mitochondrial genes, we identified 37 species of mammal. We observed low to moderate level of genetic variability and most species exhibited stable demographic history. We estimated an unbiased population genetic account (PGAunbias) for 13 species that may be monitored after a fixed time interval to understand species performance in response to the landscape changes. The present study has been evident to show pragmatic permeability with the representative sampling in the IHR in order to facilitate the development of species-oriented conservation and management programmes.

Living with a large predator: Assessing the root causes of Human-brown bear conflict and their spatial patterns in Lahaul valley, Himachal Pradesh.

Brown bear-mediated conflicts have caused immense economic loss to the local people living across the distribution range. In India, limited knowledge is available on the Himalayan brown bear (HBB), making human-brown bear conflict (HBC) mitigation more challenging. In this study, we studied HBC in the Lahaul valley using a semi-structured questionnaire survey by interviewing 398 respondents from 37 villages. About 64.8% of respondents reported conflict in two major groups-crop damage (30.6%) and livestock depredations (6.2%), while 28% reported both. Conflict incidences were relatively high in summer and frequently occurred in areas closer to the forest (<500 m) and between the elevations range of 2700 m to 3000 m above sea level (asl). The dependency of locals on forest resources (70%) for their livelihood makes them vulnerable to HBC. The "upper lower" class respondents were most impacted among the various socioeconomic classes. Two of the four clusters were identified as HBC hot spots in Lahaul valley using SaTscan analysis. We also obtained high HBC in cluster II with a 14.35 km radius. We found that anthropogenic food provisioning for HBB, livestock grazing in bear habitats, and poor knowledge of animal behavior among the communities were the major causes of HBC. We suggest horticulture crop waste management, controlled and supervised grazing, ecotourism, the constitution of community watch groups, and others to mitigate HBC. We also recommend notifying a few HBB abundant sites in the valley as protected areas for the long-term viability of the HBB in the landscape.

Landscape use and co-occurrence pattern of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its prey species in the fragile ecosystem of Spiti Valley, Himachal Pradesh.

The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) plays a vital role in maintaining the integrity of the high mountain ecosystem by regulating prey populations and maintaining plant community structure. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the role of the snow leopard and its interaction with prey species. Further, elucidating landscape use and co-occurrence of snow leopard and its prey species can be used to assess the differential use of habitat, allowing them to coexist. We used camera trapping and sign survey to study the interactions of snow leopard and its prey species (Siberian Ibex- Capra sibrica and Blue sheep-Pseudois nayaur) in the Spiti valley Himachal Pradesh. Using the occupancy modelling, we examined whether these prey and predator species occur together more or less frequently than would be expected by chance. To understand this, we have used ten covariates considering the ecology of the studied species. Our results suggest habitat covariates, such as LULC16 (barren area), LULC10 (grassland), ASP (aspect), SLP (slope) and DW (distance to water), are important drivers of habitat use for the snow leopard as well as its prey species. Furthermore, we found that the snow leopard detection probability was high if the site was used by its prey species, i.e., ibex and blue sheep. Whereas, in the case of the prey species, the probability of detection was low when the predator (snow leopard) was present and detected. Besides this, our results suggested that both species were less likely to detect together than expected if they were independent (Snow leopard-Ibex, Delta = 0.29, and snow leopard-blue sheep, Delta = 0.28, both the values are <1, i.e., avoidance). Moreover, despite the predation pressure, the differential anti-predation habitat selection and restriction of temporal activities by the prey species when snow leopard is present allows them to co-exist. Therefore, considering the strong link between the habitat use by the snow leopard and its prey species, it is imperative to generate quantitative long-term data on predator-prey densities and the population dynamics of its prey species in the landscape.

Future simulated landscape predicts habitat loss for the Golden Langur (Trachypithecus geei): A range level analysis for an endangered primate.

Trachypithecus geei Khajuria, 1956 or Golden langur are an endangered colobine primate species that are distributed in the transboundary region of Bhutan and India. The species is severely threatened because of increasing habitat fragmentation and isolation across its entire range, especially the populations in Assam, India. The distribution range of the species has not been updated for the last two decades, nor is there any proper evaluation of the habitat requirements for the species. Therefore, we mapped the habitat suitability for the species across its entire distribution and projected its habitat suitability on the simulated landscape for the future (2031). The results indicate that out of the total range extent (66,320 km2), only 12,265 km2 (18.49%) is suitable for the species at present, which will further be reduced to 8884 km2 by the year 2031, indicating major range contraction. These suitable habitats are largely scattered and fragmented in southern range of the species. Among the predictors used, the distance to evergreen and deciduous broadleaf forest was the strongest predictor out of the 35 used for model building. Moreover, land use and land cover were found to be more informative than the climatic variables. Much of the suitable habitats of the species are located outside the protected area network in the landscape. Therefore, we identified landscape configurations and suitable habitat areas for the future conservation and monitoring of Golden Langur in the protected areas of its range.

Mitochondrial DNA and Distribution Modelling Evidenced the Lost Genetic Diversity and Wild-Residence of Star Tortoise, Geochelone elegans (Testudines: Testudinidae) in India.

The Indian star tortoise (Geochelone elegans) is a massively traded animal in South Asia. To mitigate this risk, the conservation agencies recommended guidelines to safeguard this charismatic species in nature. We adopted mitochondrial DNA-based investigation and performed species distribution modeling of G. elegans throughout its distribution range in the Indian subcontinent. The genetic analyses revealed weak genetic landscape shape interpolations, low intraspecific distances (0% to 1.5%) with mixed haplotype diversity, and a single molecular operational taxonomic unit (MOTU) in the cytochrome b gene dataset. The star tortoise, G. elegans, and its sister species Geochelone platynota showed a monophyletic clustering in the Bayesian (BA) phylogeny. We also attempt to understand the habitat suitability and quality of G. elegans in its distribution range. Our results suggest that, out of the extant area, only 56,495 km2 (9.90%) is suitable for this species, with regions of highest suitability in Sri Lanka. Comparative habitat quality estimation suggests the patch shape complexity and habitat fragmentation are greater in the western and southern ranges of India, which have been greatly influenced by an increased level of urbanization and agriculture practices. We have also provided a retrospect on the potential threat to G. elegans related to the wildlife trade on the regional and international spectrum. Our results detected multiple trading hubs and junctions overlying within the suitable ranges which need special attention in the vicinity. The present study calls for a proper conservation strategy to combat the fragmented distribution and explicitly recommends intensive genetic screening of founder individuals or isolated adult colonies, implementing scientific breeding, and subsequent wild release to restore the lost genetic diversity of star tortoises.

Non-protected areas demanding equitable conservation strategies as of protected areas in the Central Himalayan region.

The present study aims to explore the mammalian diversity of Darjeeling district using camera traps along with questionnaire survey in protected area (PA) and non- protected area (Non-PA). We also attempted to understand the influence of habitat variables on mammalian species richness using the generalized linear mixed models (GLMM). A total of 30 mammal species were recorded of which 21 species were detected through camera trapping with the most abundant records of barking deer (Muntiacus muntjak) and least of the elusive Chinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla) and red panda (Ailurus fulgens). Additionally, melanistic forms of four mammals were also recorded. The mammalian species richness, their capture rate and naïve occupancy did not differ significantly among the PA and Non-PA. The GLMM revealed that the proportions of oak and bamboo in the forest, percentage canopy cover and camera trap operational days (wAICc = 0.145, wBIC = 0.603) were significant predictors of species richness in the study. We suggest Non-PA forest of Darjeeling should be given equal conservation importance as to the PA. Landscape based conservation planning will be imperative for achieving long term conservation goals in the study area.

Landscape-level habitat management plan through geometric reserve design for critically endangered Hangul (Cervus hanglu hanglu).

Hangul (Cervus hanglu hanglu), the only red deer subspecies surviving in the Indian subcontinent, is of top conservation priority with global importance. Unfortunately, it has lost much of its historical distribution range, and it is now confined to Dachigam landscape within the Kashmir valley of India. The Government of India initiated a recovery plan in 2008 to augment their numbers through ex-situ conservation programs. However, it was necessary to identify potential hangul habitats in Kashmir valley for adopting landscape-level conservation planning for the species. Based on geometric aspects of reserve design, we modeled hangul habitat using an ensemble approach to identify hangul habitats. The present model indicates that the conifer and broadleaf mixed forests were the most suitable habitats. Only 9% of the total study landscape was found suitable for the species. We identified corridors among the suitable habitat blocks, which may be vital for the species' long-term genetic viability. We suggest reorganizing the existing management of Dachigam National Park (NP) following the landscape level and habitat block-level management planning based on the core principles of geometric reserve design. We recommend that the identified patch (PID-6) in the southern region of the landscape to be converted into a Conservation Reserve or merged with the Overa-Aru Wildlife Sanctuary. This habitat patch PID-6 may be a stepping stone habitat and vital for maintaining the species landscape connectivity and metapopulation dynamics.

Adaptive spatial planning of protected area network for conserving the Himalayan brown bear.

Large mammals that occur in low densities, particularly in the high-altitude areas, are globally threatened due to fragile climatic and ecological envelopes. Among bear species, the Himalayan brown bear (Ursus arctos isabellinus) has a distribution that is restricted to Himalayan highlands with relatively small and fragmented populations. To date, very little scientific information on the Himalayan brown bear, which is vital for the conservation of the species and the management of its habitats, especially in protected areas of the landscape, is available. The present study aims to understand the effectiveness of existing Himalayan Protected Areas in terms of representativeness for the conservation of Himalayan brown bear (HBB), an umbrella species in high-altitude habitats of the Himalayan region. We used the ensemble approach of the species distribution model and then assessed biological connectivity to predict the current and future distribution and movement of HBB in climate change scenarios for the year 2050. Approximately 33 protected areas (PAs) currently possess suitable habitats. Our model suggests a massive decline of approximately 73.38% and 72.87% under 4.5 and 8.5 representative concentration pathway (RCP) respectively in the year 2050 compared with the current distribution. The predicted change in suitability will result in loss of habitats from thirteen PAs; eight will become completely uninhabitable by the year 2050, followed by loss of connectivity in the majority of PAs. Habitat configuration analysis suggested a 40% decline in the number of suitable patches, a reduction in large habitat patches (up to 50%) and aggregation of suitable areas (9%) by 2050, indicating fragmentation. The predicted change in geographic isotherm will result in loss of habitats from thirteen PAs, eight of them will become completely inhabitable. Hence, these PAs may lose their effectiveness and representativeness in achieving the very objective of their existence or conservation goals. Therefore, we recommend adaptive spatial planning for protecting suitable habitats distributed outside the PA for climate change adaptation.

Fine-scale landscape genetics unveiling contemporary asymmetric movement of red panda (Ailurus fulgens) in Kangchenjunga landscape, India.

Wildlife management in rapid changing landscapes requires critical planning through cross cutting networks, and understanding of landscape features, often affected by the anthropogenic activities. The present study demonstrates fine-scale spatial patterns of genetic variation and contemporary gene flow of red panda (Ailurus fulgens) populations with respect to landscape connectivity in Kangchenjunga Landscape (KL), India. The study found about 1,309.54 km2 area suitable for red panda in KL-India, of which 62.21% area fell under the Protected Area network. We identified 24 unique individuals from 234 feces collected at nine microsatellite loci. The spatially explicit and non-explicit Bayesian clustering algorithms evident to exhibit population structuring and supported red panda populations to exist in meta-population frame work. In concurrence to the habitat suitability and landscape connectivity models, gene flow results supported a contemporary asymmetric movement of red panda by connecting KL-India in a crescent arc. We demonstrate the structural-operational connectivity of corridors in KL-India that facilitated red panda movement in the past. We also seek for cooperation in Nepal, Bhutan and China to aid in preparing for a comprehensive monitoring plan for the long-term conservation and management of red panda in trans-boundary landscapes.

Past, Present and Future: Combining habitat suitability and future landcover simulation for long-term conservation management of Indian rhino.

The Indian rhino (Rhinoceros unicornis) is susceptible to habitat change and fragmentation due to illegal logging, rapid urbanization and non-forest use and therefore were confined in to isolated areas throughout its distribution. The present study was conducted in Gorumara landscape which is composed of two protected areas (PAs) viz., Gorumara National Park (GNP) and Chapramari Wildlife Sanctuary. Both PAs were separated by a territorial forest range (Bridge Area), which is between both the PAs and under high anthropogenic disturbance. The study was designed to understand the impacts of landcover change on habitat suitability of R. unicornis in a multi-temporal scenario from 1998 to 2018 using ensemble approach and also to simulate the future habitat suitability for 2028. Our result suggests a significant increase in woodland cover inside the PAs, whereas the grassland cover has increased outside the PA in territorial range. We found a strong positive association of R. unicornis with grasslands. The Comparison of the future suitability model of 2028 with that of 2018 indicates a substantial increase in rhino suitable area by 13% in the territorial forest. Hence, bringing the territorial forest into the PA network, will be a crucial step to increase the fodder availability and better connectivity for the long term survival of the species.

Changing landscape configuration demands ecological planning: Retrospect and prospect for megaherbivores of North Bengal.

The Gorumara National Park (GNP) is an important conservation area located in the northern region of West Bengal State, India, as it provides habitat for three megaherbivores: Indian One-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis), Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) and Gaurs (Bos gaurus). It harbours one of the last population of the one-horned rhino. In the present study, landscape change and configuration were investigated by comparing three Landsat images, from 1998, 2008 and 2018. The images were classified into six different landcover classes following standard methodology. The present study also involves evaluation of landscape and anthropogenic predictors influence on the megaherbivores of GNP, followed by future landcover simulation for the year 2028. The result shows a significant decrease in the grassland cover from 18.87 km2 to 8.27 km2 from 1998 to 2018, whereas the woodland cover has increased from 50.14 km2 to 62.09 km2 between 1998 and 2018. The landscape configuration indices such as Number of Patches (NP), Patch Density (PD), Interspersion and Juxtaposition (IJI), Aggregation Index (AI) and Mean Shape Index (SHAPE AM) indicated that the landscapes has lost complexity in the spatial placement of patches of different Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) classes. Also, the landscape over the three decades has become uniform in terms of diversity of patches, because of earlier plantation activities by the forest managers. Result also indicated that grassland, along with its class metrics are the top predictors contributing 43.6% in explaining the spatial distribution of megaherbivores in GNP. Results from the simulated landcover of 2028 suggest a possible decline in overall grassland by 6.23% and a subsequent upsurge in woodland by 6.09% from 2018. The present result will be useful in guiding the forest management in developing habitat improvement strategies for the long- term viability of megaherbivore populations of rhino, gaur and elephant in the GNP.

Identifying suitable habitat and corridors for Indian Grey Wolf (Canis lupus pallipes) in Chotta Nagpur Plateau and Lower Gangetic Planes: A species with differential management needs.

Different Biogeographic provinces and environmental factors are known to influence the dispersibility of long-ranging carnivores over the landscape. However, lack of empirical data on long-ranging carnivores may lead to erroneous decisions in formulating management plans. The Indian Grey wolf (Canis lupus pallipes) is known to be distributed in the vast areas of the Indian subcontinent. However, the actual population estimates are available only for Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Bihar. Whereas, its distribution, population and habitat ecology is poorly known from the eastern region. Hence, this article aimed to evaluate the habitat suitability along with landscape connectivity for the species over the two major biogeographic provinces of India, i.e., Lower Gangetic Plains (7b) and Chhota Nagpur Plateau (6b). The present model with significantly higher Area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.981, indicates its accuracy in predicting the suitable habitats and identifying biological corridors by using environmental, topological and anthropogenic variables. Precipitation of the driest quarter and the precipitation of seasonality were the two best performing variables in our model, capable of explaining about 26% and 22.4% variation in the data respectively. Out of the total area i.e. 4,16,665 Km2, about 18,237 Km2 (4.37%) was found to be highly suitable area and about 3,16,803 Km2 (76.03%) areas as least suitable. The corridor analysis indicated that the habitat connectivity was highest in the border line area of the two biotic provinces located in the south-eastern zone via districts of Purba Singhbhum and Paschim Singhbhum of Jharkhand state and Bankura and West Midnapore districts of West Bengal state. Among the Protected Areas (PAs), natural corridors exist connecting the Simlipal National Park (NP)-Satkosia Wildlife Santuray (WLS), Dalma ranges of Chotta Nagpur plateau along with Badrama WLS, Khulasuni WLS and Debrigarh WLS. Differential management through landscape level planning may be helpful in securing the future of the species in the landscape.