Early Diagnosis and Treatment of COPD and Asthma - A Randomized, Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Many persons with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma have not received a diagnosis, so their respiratory symptoms remain largely untreated. METHODS: We used a case-finding method to identify adults in the community with respiratory symptoms without diagnosed lung disease. Participants who were found to have undiagnosed COPD or asthma on spirometry were enrolled in a multicenter, randomized, controlled trial to determine whether early diagnosis and treatment reduces health care utilization for respiratory illness and improves health outcomes. Participants were assigned to receive the intervention (evaluation by a pulmonologist and an asthma-COPD educator who were instructed to initiate guideline-based care) or usual care by their primary care practitioner. The primary outcome was the annualized rate of participant-initiated health care utilization for respiratory illness. Secondary outcomes included changes from baseline to 1 year in disease-specific quality of life, as assessed with the St. George Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ; scores range from 0 to 100, with lower scores indicating better health status); symptom burden, as assessed with the COPD Assessment Test (CAT; scores range from 0 to 40, with lower scores indicating better health status); and forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1). RESULTS: Of 38,353 persons interviewed, 595 were found to have undiagnosed COPD or asthma and 508 underwent randomization: 253 were assigned to the intervention group and 255 to the usual-care group. The annualized rate of a primary-outcome event was lower in the intervention group than in the usual-care group (0.53 vs. 1.12 events per person-year; incidence rate ratio, 0.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.36 to 0.63; P<0.001). At 12 months, the SGRQ score was lower than the baseline score by 10.2 points in the intervention group and by 6.8 points in the usual-care group (difference, -3.5 points; 95% CI, -6.0 to -0.9), and the CAT score was lower than the baseline score by 3.8 points and 2.6 points, respectively (difference, -1.3 points; 95% CI, -2.4 to -0.1). The FEV1 increased by 119 ml in the intervention group and by 22 ml in the usual-care group (difference, 94 ml; 95% CI, 50 to 138). The incidence of adverse events was similar in the trial groups. CONCLUSIONS: In this trial in which a strategy was used to identify adults in the community with undiagnosed asthma or COPD, those who received pulmonologist-directed treatment had less subsequent health care utilization for respiratory illness than those who received usual care. (Funded by Canadian Institutes of Health Research; UCAP ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03148210.).

Anticipating undiagnosed asthma in symptomatic adults with normal pre- and post-bronchodilator spirometry: a decision tool for bronchial challenge testing.

BACKGROUND: Some patients with asthma demonstrate normal spirometry and remain undiagnosed without further testing. OBJECTIVE: To determine clinical predictors of asthma in symptomatic adults with normal spirometry, and to generate a tool to help clinicians decide who should undergo bronchial challenge testing (BCT). METHODS: Using random-digit dialling and population-based case-finding, we recruited adults from the community with respiratory symptoms and no previous history of diagnosed lung disease. Participants with normal pre- and post-bronchodilator spirometry subsequently underwent BCT. Asthma was diagnosed in those with symptoms and a methacholine provocative concentration (PC20) of < 8 mg/ml. Sputum and blood eosinophils, and exhaled nitric oxide were measured. Univariate analyses identified potentially predictive variables, which were then used to construct a multivariable logistic regression model to predict asthma. Model sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) were calculated. RESULTS: Of 132 symptomatic individuals with normal spirometry, 34 (26%) had asthma. Of those ultimately diagnosed with asthma, 33 (97%) answered 'yes' to a question asking whether they experienced cough, chest tightness or wheezing provoked by exercise or cold air. Other univariate predictors of asthma included female sex, pre-bronchodilator FEV1 percentage predicted, and percent positive change in FEV1 post bronchodilator. A multivariable model containing these predictive variables yielded an AUC of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.72-0.91), a sensitivity of 82%, and a specificity of 66%. The model was used to construct a nomogram to advise clinicians which patients should be prioritized for BCT. CONCLUSIONS: Four readily available patient characteristics demonstrated a high sensitivity and AUC for predicting undiagnosed asthma in symptomatic adults with normal pre- and post-bronchodilator spirometry. These characteristics can potentially help clinicians to decide which individuals with normal spirometry should be investigated with bronchial challenge testing. However, further prospective validation of our decision tool is required.

Non-adherence to COPD medications and its association with adverse events: A longitudinal population based cohort study of older adults.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between non-adherence to long term chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) medications and COPD related emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations in patients with incident COPD, utilizing time varying measures of adherence as well as accounting for time-varying confounding impacted by prior adherence. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study between 2007-2017 among individuals aged 66 years and older with incident COPD using multiple linked administrative health databases from the province of Ontario, Canada. Adherence to COPD medications was measured using time varying proportion of days covered based on insurance claims for medications dispensed at community pharmacies. The parametric g-formula was used to assess the association between time-varying adherence (in the last 90-days) to COPD medications and risk of COPD related hospitalizations and ED visits while accounting for time varying confounding by COPD severity. RESULTS: Overall, 60,251 individuals with incident COPD were included; mean age was 76 (SD 7) and 59% were male. Mean adherence over the entire follow-up was 23% (SD 0.3). There were 7248 (12%) COPD related ED visits (2.8 events per 100 person years [PY]) and 9188 (15%) COPD related hospitalizations (3.5 events per 100 PY). Compared to those with 0% 90-day adherence, those with adherence between 1-33% had a 19% decreased risk of COPD related ED visits (adjusted risk ratio[aRR]:0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI]:0.78-0.83), those with adherence between 34%-67% had a 18% decreased risk (aRR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.77-0.85) while those with 68%-100% 90-day adherence had a 63% increased risk of COPD related ED visits (aRR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.47-1.78). Nearly identical results were obtained for COPD specific hospitalizations. CONCLUSION: After accounting for time varying confounding by COPD severity, the highest time varying 90-days adherence was associated with an increased risk of both COPD related ED visits and hospitalizations compared to the lowest adherence categories. Differences in COPD severity between adherence categories, perception of need for medication management in the higher adherence categories, and potential residual confounding makes it difficult to disentangle the independent effects of adherence from the severity of the condition itself.

Impact of Undiagnosed Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Asthma on Symptoms, Quality of Life, Healthcare Use, and Work Productivity.

Rationale: A significant proportion of individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma remain undiagnosed. Objectives: The objective of this study was to evaluate symptoms, quality of life, healthcare use, and work productivity in subjects with undiagnosed COPD or asthma compared with those previously diagnosed, as well as healthy control subjects. Methods: This multicenter population-based case-finding study randomly recruited adults with respiratory symptoms who had no previous history of diagnosed lung disease from 17 Canadian centers using random digit dialing. Participants who exceeded symptom thresholds on the Asthma Screening Questionnaire or the COPD Diagnostic Questionnaire underwent pre- and post-bronchodilator spirometry to determine if they met diagnostic criteria for COPD or asthma. Two control groups, a healthy group without respiratory symptoms and a symptomatic group with previously diagnosed COPD or asthma, were similarly recruited. Measurements and Main Results: A total of 26,905 symptomatic individuals were interviewed, and 4,272 subjects were eligible. Of these, 2,857 completed pre- and post-bronchodilator spirometry, and 595 (21%) met diagnostic criteria for COPD or asthma. Individuals with undiagnosed COPD or asthma reported greater impact of symptoms on health status and daily activities, worse disease-specific and general quality of life, greater healthcare use, and poorer work productivity than healthy control subjects. Individuals with undiagnosed asthma had symptoms, quality of life, and healthcare use burden similar to those of individuals with previously diagnosed asthma, whereas subjects with undiagnosed COPD were less disabled than those with previously diagnosed COPD. Conclusions: Undiagnosed COPD or asthma imposes important, unmeasured burdens on the healthcare system and is associated with poor health status and negative effects on work productivity.

2023 Canadian Thoracic Society Guideline on Pharmacotherapy in Patients With Stable COPD.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patient care must include confirming a diagnosis with postbronchodilator spirometry. Because of the clinical heterogeneity and the reality that airflow obstruction assessed by spirometry only partially reflects disease severity, a thorough clinical evaluation of the patient should include assessment of symptom burden and risk of exacerbations that permits the implementation of evidence-informed pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic interventions. This guideline provides recommendations from a comprehensive systematic review with a meta-analysis and expert-informed clinical remarks to optimize maintenance pharmacologic therapy for individuals with stable COPD, and a revised and practical treatment pathway based on new evidence since the 2019 update of the Canadian Thoracic Society (CTS) Guideline. The key clinical questions were developed using the Patients/Population (P), Intervention(s) (I), Comparison/Comparator (C), and Outcome (O) model for three questions that focuses on the outcomes of symptoms (dyspnea)/health status, acute exacerbations, and mortality. The evidence from this systematic review and meta-analysis leads to the recommendation that all symptomatic patients with spirometry-confirmed COPD should receive long-acting bronchodilator maintenance therapy. Those with moderate to severe dyspnea (modified Medical Research Council ≥ 2) and/or impaired health status (COPD Assessment Test ≥ 10) and a low risk of exacerbations should receive combination therapy with a long-acting muscarinic antagonist/long-acting ẞ2-agonist (LAMA/LABA). For those with a moderate/severe dyspnea and/or impaired health status and a high risk of exacerbations should be prescribed triple combination therapy (LAMA/LABA/inhaled corticosteroids) azithromycin, roflumilast or N-acetylcysteine is recommended for specific populations; a recommendation against the use of theophylline, maintenance systemic oral corticosteroids such as prednisone and inhaled corticosteroid monotherapy is made for all COPD patients.

Complexity in clinical diagnoses of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is a clinical syndrome with various causes. It is not uncommon that COPD patients presenting with dyspnea have multiple causes for their symptoms including AECOPD, pneumonia, or congestive heart failure occurring concurrently. METHODS: To identify clinical, radiographic, and laboratory characteristics that might help distinguish AECOPD from another dominant disease in patients with a history of COPD, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of hospitalized patients with admitting diagnosis of AECOPD who were screened for a prospective randomized controlled trial from Sep 2016 to Mar 2018. Clinical characteristics, course in hospital, and final diagnosis at discharge were reviewed and adjudicated by two authors. The final diagnosis of each patient was determined based on the synthesis of all presenting signs and symptoms, imaging, and laboratory results. We adhered to AECOPD diagnosis definitions based on the GOLD guidelines. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify any associated features of AECOPD with and without other acute processes contributing to dyspnea. RESULTS: Three hundred fifteen hospitalized patients with admitting diagnosis of AECOPD were included. Mean age was 72.5 (SD 10.6) years. Two thirds (65.4%) had spirometry defined COPD. The most common presenting symptom was dyspnea (96.5%), followed by cough (67.9%), and increased sputum (57.5%). One hundred and eighty (57.1%) had a final diagnosis of AECOPD alone whereas 87 (27.6%) had AECOPD with other conditions and 48 (15.2%) did not have AECOPD after adjudication. Increased sputum purulence (OR 3.35, 95%CI 1.68-6.69) and elevated venous pCO2 (OR 1.04, 95%CI 1.01 - 1.07) were associated with a diagnosis of AECOPD but these were not associated with AECOPD alone without concomitant conditions. Radiographic evidence of pleural effusion (OR 0.26, 95%CI 0.12 - 0.58) was negatively associated with AECOPD with or without other conditions while radiographic evidence of pulmonary edema (OR 0.31; 95%CI 0.11 - 0.91) and lobar pneumonia (OR 0.13, 95%CI 0.07 - 0.25) suggested against the diagnosis of AECOPD alone. CONCLUSION: The study highlighted the complexity and difficulty of AECOPD diagnosis. A more specific clinical tool to diagnose AECOPD is needed.

Barriers and facilitators to improving patient safety learning systems: a systematic review of qualitative studies and meta-synthesis.

BACKGROUND: The implementation and continuous improvement of patient safety learning systems (PSLS) is a principal strategy for mitigating preventable harm to patients. Although substantial efforts have sought to improve these systems, there is a need to more comprehensively understand critical success factors. This study aims to summarise the barriers and facilitators perceived by hospital staff and physicians to influence the reporting, analysis, learning and feedback within PSLS in hospitals. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-synthesis by searching MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), CINAHL, Scopus and Web of Science. We included English-language manuscripts of qualitative studies evaluating effectiveness of the PSLS and excluded studies evaluating specific individual adverse events, such as systems for tracking only medication side effects, for example. We followed the Joanna Briggs Institute methodology for qualitative systematic reviews. RESULTS: We extracted data from 22 studies, after screening 2475 for inclusion/exclusion criteria. The included studies focused on reporting aspects of the PSLS, however, there were important barriers and facilitators across the analysis, learning and feedback phases. We identified the following barriers for effective use of PSLS: inadequate organisational support with shortage of resources, lack of training, weak safety culture, lack of accountability, defective policies, blame and a punitive environment, complex system, lack of experience and lack of feedback. We identified the following enabling factors: continuous training, a balance between accountability and responsibility, leaders as role models, anonymous reporting, user-friendly systems, well-structured analysis teams, tangible improvement. CONCLUSION: Multiple barriers and facilitators to uptake of PSLS exist. These factors should be considered by decision makers seeking to enhance the impact of PSLS. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No formal ethical approval or consent were required as no primary data were collected.

Comparing the Hospital Frailty Risk Score and the Clinical Frailty Scale Among Older Adults With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbation.

Importance: Frailty is associated with severe morbidity and mortality among people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Interventions such as pulmonary rehabilitation can treat and reverse frailty, yet frailty is not routinely measured in pulmonary clinical practice. It is unclear how population-based administrative data tools to screen for frailty compare with standard bedside assessments in this population. Objective: To determine the agreement between the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) and the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) among hospitalized individuals with COPD and to determine the sensitivity and specificity of the HFRS (vs CFS) to detect frailty. Design, Setting, and Participants: A cross-sectional study was conducted among hospitalized patients with COPD exacerbation. The study was conducted in the respiratory ward of a single tertiary care academic hospital (The Ottawa Hospital, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada). Participants included consenting adult inpatients who were admitted with a diagnosis of acute COPD exacerbation from December 2016 to June 2019 and who used a clinical care pathway for COPD. There were no specific exclusion criteria. Data analysis was performed in March 2022. Exposure: Degree of frailty measured by the CFS. Main Outcomes and Measures: The HFRS was calculated using hospital administrative data. Primary outcomes were the sensitivity and specificity of the HFRS to detect frail and nonfrail individuals according to CFS assessments of frailty, and the secondary outcome was the optimal probability threshold of the HFRS to discriminate frail and nonfrail individuals. Results: Among 99 patients with COPD exacerbation (mean [SD] age, 70.6 [9.5] years; 56 women [57%]), 14 (14%) were not frail, 33 (33%) were vulnerable, 18 (18%) were mildly frail, and 34 (34%) were moderately to severely frail by the CFS. The HFRS (vs CFS) had a sensitivity of 27% and specificity of 93% to detect frail vs nonfrail individuals. The optimal probability threshold for the HFRS was 1.4 points or higher. The corresponding sensitivity to detect frailty was 69%, and the specificity was 57%. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, using the population-based HFRS to screen for frailty yielded poor detection of frailty among hospitalized patients with COPD compared with the bedside CFS. These findings suggest that use of the HFRS in this population may result in important missed opportunities to identify and provide early intervention for frailty, such as pulmonary rehabilitation.

Patient and physician factors associated with symptomatic undiagnosed asthma or COPD.

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear why some symptomatic individuals with asthma or COPD remain undiagnosed. Here, we compare patient and physician characteristics between symptomatic individuals with obstructive lung disease (OLD) who are undiagnosed and individuals with physician-diagnosed OLD. METHODS: Using random-digit dialling and population-based case finding, we recruited 451 participants with symptomatic undiagnosed OLD and 205 symptomatic control participants with physician-diagnosed OLD. Data on symptoms, quality of life and healthcare utilisation were analysed. We surveyed family physicians of participants in both groups to elucidate differences in physician practices that could contribute to undiagnosed OLD. RESULTS: Participants with undiagnosed OLD had lower mean pre-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s percentage predicted compared with those who were diagnosed (75.2% versus 80.8%; OR 0.975, 95% CI 0.963-0.987). They reported greater psychosocial impacts due to symptoms and worse energy and fatigue than those with diagnosed OLD. Undiagnosed OLD was more common in participants whose family physicians were practising for >15 years and in those whose physicians reported that they were likely to prescribe respiratory medications without doing spirometry. Undiagnosed OLD was more common among participants who had never undergone spirometry (OR 10.83, 95% CI 6.18-18.98) or who were never referred to a specialist (OR 5.92, 95% CI 3.58-9.77). Undiagnosed OLD was less common among participants who had required emergency department care (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.20-0.97). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with symptomatic undiagnosed OLD have worse pre-bronchodilator lung function and present with greater psychosocial impacts on quality of life compared with their diagnosed counterparts. They were less likely to have received appropriate investigations and specialist referral for their respiratory symptoms.

Trends in outpatient and inpatient visits for separate ambulatory-care-sensitive conditions during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic: a province-based study.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic led to global disruptions in non-urgent health services, affecting health outcomes of individuals with ambulatory-care-sensitive conditions (ACSCs). Methods: We conducted a province-based study using Ontario health administrative data (Canada) to determine trends in outpatient visits and hospitalization rates (per 100,000 people) in the general adult population for seven ACSCs during the first pandemic year (March 2020-March 2021) compared to previous years (2016-2019), and how disruption in outpatient visits related to acute care use. ACSCs considered were chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, angina, congestive heart failure (CHF), hypertension, diabetes, and epilepsy. We used time series auto-regressive integrated moving-average models to compare observed versus projected rates. Results: Following an initial reduction (March-May 2020) in all types of visits, primary care outpatient visits (combined in-person and virtual) returned to pre-pandemic levels for asthma, angina, hypertension, and diabetes, remained below pre-pandemic levels for COPD, and rose above pre-pandemic levels for CHF (104.8 vs. 96.4, 95% CI: 89.4-104.0) and epilepsy (29.6 vs. 24.7, 95% CI: 22.1-27.5) by the end of the first pandemic year. Specialty visits returned to pre-pandemic levels for COPD, angina, CHF, hypertension, and diabetes, but remained above pre-pandemic levels for asthma (95.4 vs. 79.5, 95% CI: 70.7-89.5) and epilepsy (53.3 vs. 45.6, 95% CI: 41.2-50.5), by the end of the year. Virtual visit rates increased for all ACSCs. Among ACSCs, reductions in hospitalizations were most pronounced for COPD and asthma. CHF-related hospitalizations also decreased, albeit to a lesser extent. For angina, hypertension, diabetes, and epilepsy, hospitalization rates reduced initially, but returned to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year. Conclusion: This study demonstrated variation in outpatient visit trends for different ACSCs in the first pandemic year. No outpatient visit trends resulted in increased hospitalizations for any ACSC; however, reductions in rates of asthma, COPD, and CHF hospitalizations persisted.

Development and assessment of an educational intervention to improve the recognition of frailty on an acute care respiratory ward.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is a robust predictor of poor outcomes among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease yet is not measured in routine practice. We determined barriers and facilitators to measuring frailty in a hospital setting, designed and implemented a frailty-focused education intervention, and measured accuracy of frailty screening before and after education. METHODS: We conducted a pilot cross-sectional mixed-methods study on an inpatient respiratory ward over 6 months. We recruited registered nurses (RNs) with experience using the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). RNs evaluated 10 clinical vignettes and assigned a frailty score using the CFS. A structured frailty-focused education intervention was delivered to small groups. RNs reassigned frailty scores to vignettes 1 week after education. Outcomes included barriers and facilitators to assessing frailty in hospital, and percent agreement of CFS scores between RNs and a gold standard (determined by geriatricians) before and after education. RESULTS: Among 26 RNs, the median (IQR) duration of experience using the CFS was 1.5 (1-4) months. Barriers to assessing frailty included the lack of clinical directives to measure frailty and large acute workloads. Having collateral history from family members was the strongest perceived facilitator for frailty assessment. The median (IQR) percent agreement with the gold-standard frailty score across all cases was 55.8% (47.2%-60.6%) prior to the educational intervention, and 57.2% (44.1%-70.2%) afterwards. The largest increase in agreement occurred in the 'mildly frail' category, 65.4%-81% agreement. CONCLUSIONS: Barriers to assessing frailty in the hospital setting are external to the measurement tool itself. Accuracy of frailty assessment among acute care RNs was low, and frailty-focused rater training may improve accuracy. Subsequent work should focus on health system approaches to empower health providers to assess frailty, and on testing the effectiveness of frailty-focused education in large real-world settings.

Pulmonary sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection and factors associated with persistent abnormal lung function at six months after infection: Prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Information on the long-term pulmonary sequelae following SARS-CoV-2 infection is limited. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of hospitalized and non-hospitalized adult patients age >18 with documented SARS-CoV-2 infection by RT-PCR three months prior to enrolment between June and December 2020. Participants underwent full pulmonary function test (PFT), cardiopulmonary exercise testing at 3 months and 6 months. Primary outcome was mean differences of forced vital capacity (FVC), diffuse capacity of lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO), and oxygen consumption (VO2) at 6 vs. 3 months. Secondary outcomes were respiratory outcomes classified into 5 clinical groups-no lung disease, resolved lung disease, persistent lung disease, PFT abnormalities attributable to pre-existing lung disease or other factors, and mild PFT abnormalities of uncertain clinical significance. RESULTS: Fifty-one, 30 hospitalized and 21 non-hospitalized, participants were included. Median age was 51 years; 20 (39.2%) were female. Mean (±SD) percent predicted values of FVC, DLCO and VO2 at 3 vs 6-month-visits were 96.2 ± 15.6 vs. 97.6 ± 15.5, 73.74 ±18 vs. 78.5 ± 15.5, and 75.5 ± 18.9 vs. 76.1 ± 21.5, respectively. Nineteen (37%) patients had physiologic and/or radiographic evidence of lung disease at 3 months with eight (15.7%) continuing to have persistent disease at 6 months. History of diabetes, hypertension, ICU admission and elevated D-Dimer levels were associated with persistent lung disease at 6 months. INTERPRETATION: Persistent lung disease at 6 months post SARS-CoV-2 infection exists. Changes of lung function between 3- and 6-months are not significant. A longer follow-up is required to determine long-term prognosis.

Impact of respiratory viral infections on mortality and critical illness among hospitalized patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal respiratory viral infections are associated with exacerbations and morbidity among patients with COPD. The real-world clinical outcomes associated with seasonal viral infections are less well established among hospitalized patients. RESEARCH QUESTION: To estimate the association between seasonal respiratory viral infections, 30-day mortality, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission among hospitalized COPD patients. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted an analysis of a national prospective multicenter cohort of COPD patients hospitalized with acute respiratory illness during winter seasons (2011-2015) in Canada. Nasopharyngeal swabs were performed on all patients at the onset of hospital admission for diagnosis of viral infection. Primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and ICU admissions. Secondary outcomes included invasive/non-invasive ventilation use. RESULTS: Among 3931 hospitalized patients with COPD, 28.5% (1122/3931) were diagnosed with seasonal respiratory viral infection. Viral infection was associated with increased admission to ICU (OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.2-1.9) and need for mechanical ventilation (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.4-2.5), but was not associated with mortality (OR 1.1, 95% CI 0.8-1.4). Patients with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) were equally likely to require ICU admission (OR 1.09, 95% CI 0.67-1.78), and more likely to need non-invasive ventilation (OR 3.1; 95% CI 1.8-5.1) compared to patients with influenza. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest COPD patients requiring hospitalization for respiratory symptoms should routinely receive viral testing at admission, especially for RSV and influenza, to inform prognosis, clinical management, and infection control practices during winter seasons. Patients with COPD will be an important target population for newly developed RSV therapeutics. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT01517191.

Trends in all-cause mortality and inpatient and outpatient visits for ambulatory care sensitive conditions during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the management of ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) remains unknown. OBJECTIVES: To compare observed and expected (projected based on previous years) trends in all-cause mortality and healthcare use for ACSCs in the first year of the pandemic (March 2020 to March 2021). DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We conducted a population-based study using provincial health administrative data on general adul population (Ontario, Canada). OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Monthly all-cause mortality, and hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) and outpatient visit rates (per 100,000 people at-risk) for seven combined ACSCs (asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, angina, congestive heart failure, hypertension, diabetes, and epilepsy) during the first year were compared with similar periods in previous years (2016-2019) by fitting monthly time series autoregressive integrated moving-average models. RESULTS: Compared to previous years, all-cause mortality rates increased at the beginning of the pandemic (observed rate in March to May 2020 of 79.98 vs. projected of 71.24 [66.35-76.50]) and then returned to expected in June 2020-except among immigrants and people with mental health conditions where they remained elevated. Hospitalization and ED visit rates for ACSCs remained lower than projected throughout the first year: observed hospitalization rate of 37.29 versus projected of 52.07 (47.84-56.68); observed ED visit rate of 92.55 versus projected of 134.72 (124.89-145.33). ACSC outpatient visit rates decreased initially (observed rate of 4299.57 vs. projected of 5060.23 [4712.64-5433.46]) and then returned to expected in June 2020.

Comprehensive compartmental model and calibration algorithm for the study of clinical implications of the population-level spread of COVID-19: a study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: The complex dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has made obtaining reliable long-term forecasts of the disease progression difficult. Simple mechanistic models with deterministic parameters are useful for short-term predictions but have ultimately been unsuccessful in extrapolating the trajectory of the pandemic because of unmodelled dynamics and the unrealistic level of certainty that is assumed in the predictions. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We propose a 22-compartment epidemiological model that includes compartments not previously considered concurrently, to account for the effects of vaccination, asymptomatic individuals, inadequate access to hospital care, post-acute COVID-19 and recovery with long-term health complications. Additionally, new connections between compartments introduce new dynamics to the system and provide a framework to study the sensitivity of model outputs to several concurrent effects, including temporary immunity, vaccination rate and vaccine effectiveness. Subject to data availability for a given region, we discuss a means by which population demographics (age, comorbidity, socioeconomic status, sex and geographical location) and clinically relevant information (different variants, different vaccines) can be incorporated within the 22-compartment framework. Considering a probabilistic interpretation of the parameters allows the model's predictions to reflect the current state of uncertainty about the model parameters and model states. We propose the use of a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm for parameter calibration and model selection. This methodology considers a combination of prescribed parameter prior distributions for parameters that are known to be essential to the modelled dynamics and automatic relevance determination priors for parameters whose relevance is questionable. This is useful as it helps prevent overfitting the available epidemiological data when calibrating the parameters of the proposed model. Population-level administrative health data will serve as partial observations of the model states. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Approved by Carleton University's Research Ethics Board-B (clearance ID: 114596). Results will be made available through future publication.

Development and evaluation of an evidence-based, theory-grounded online Clinical Frailty Scale tutorial.

INTRODUCTION: Frailty is a robust predictor of adverse outcomes in older people. Practice guidelines recommend routine screening for frailty; however, this does not occur regularly. The Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) is a validated, feasible instrument that can be used in a variety of clinical settings and is associated with many adverse outcomes. Our objective was to develop and evaluate an online training module to guide frailty assessment using the CFS. METHODS: A multidisciplinary team of clinical experts developed an evidence-based, theory-grounded online training module for users who wished to perform frailty assessment using the CFS. The module was prospectively evaluated for user satisfaction, effectiveness and feasibility using a standardised questionnaire. Qualitative feedback was analysed with thematic analysis. RESULTS: Version 1 of the CFS module was used 627 times from 21 October 2019 to 24 March 2020. Satisfaction, effectiveness and feasibility of the module were positively rated (≥4/5 on a 5-point Likert scale n = 582 [93%], n = 507, [81%], n = 575, [91%], respectively). Qualitative feedback highlighted ease of use, likelihood of users to share the module with others and opportunities to increase multimedia content. CONCLUSION: An online tutorial, designed using evidence and theory to guide frailty assessment using the CFS, was positively rated by users. The module's content and structure was rated effective and feasible, and users were satisfied with, and likely to share, the module. Research evaluating the module's impact on the accuracy of frailty assessment is required.

Effect of implementation of a 12-dose once-weekly treatment (3HP) in addition to standard regimens to prevent TB on completion rates: Interrupted time series design.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine if offering a 12-dose once-weekly treatment (3HP) as an additional treatment option would result in an increase in the overall proportion of patients completing TB preventive treatment (TPT) above the baseline rate. METHODS: We analyzed outcomes in consecutive adults referred to a TB clinic from January 2010 to May 2019. Starting December 2016, 3HP was offered as an alternative to standard clinic regimens which included 9 months of daily isoniazid or 4 months of daily rifampin. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients who completed TPT among all patients who started treatment. Using segmented autoregression analysis, we compared completion at the end of the study with projected completion had the intervention not been introduced. RESULTS: A total of 2803 adults were referred for assessment over the study period. There was an absolute increase in completions among those who started a treatment of 19.0% at the end of the study between the observed intervention completion rate and the projected completion rate from the baseline study period (the completion rate had the 3HP intervention not been introduced) (76% observed vs 57% projected; 95% CI 6.6 to 31.4%; p = 0.004) and an absolute increase among those who were offered treatment (17.3%; 95% CI, 2.3 to 32.3%; p = 0.025). CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of 3HP for TPT as an alternative to the regular regimens offered resulted in a significant increase in the proportion of patients completing treatment. Our study provides evidence to support accelerated use of 3HP in Canada.

Association between frailty and patient outcomes after cancer surgery: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is associated with poor postoperative outcomes, but existing data do not describe frailty's interaction with tumour characteristics at the time of cancer surgery. Our objective was to estimate the association between frailty and long-term survival, and to explore any interaction with tumour stage and grade. METHODS: This was a population-based cohort study conducted using linked provincial health administrative data in Ontario, Canada (2009-20). Using a cancer registry, we identified adults having elective cancer surgery. Frailty was measured using a validated index (range 0-1; higher score=greater frailty). Associations between frailty and long-term postoperative survival (primary outcome) were estimated using proportional hazards regression. Secondary outcomes were length of stay, discharge destination, days alive at home, and healthcare costs. RESULTS: We identified and included 52 012 patients. Mean frailty score was 0.13 (standard deviation 0.07). During follow-up, 19 378 (37.3%) patients died. After adjustment for risk factors, each 10% increase in frailty was associated with a 1.60-fold relative decrease in survival (95% confidence interval: 1.56-1.64). The frailty-survival association was strongest for patients with lower stage and grade cancers. Increased frailty was associated with longer hospital stays (3 days), fewer days alive and at home (42 days yr-1), more frequent discharge to a nursing facility (2.38-fold), and increased healthcare costs ($6048). CONCLUSIONS: Patient frailty is associated with decreased long-term survival after cancer surgery. The association is stronger for early-stage and -grade cancers, which would otherwise have a better survival prognosis.