Model Simulations and Predictions of Hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS) in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China: Roles of Aqueous Aerosols and Atmospheric Acidity.

Hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS) has been found to be an abundant organosulfur aerosol compound in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region with a measured maximum daily mean concentration of up to 10 µg per cubic meter in winter. However, the production medium of HMS in aerosols is controversial, and it is unknown whether chemical transport models are able to capture the variations of HMS during individual haze events. In this work, we modify the parametrization of HMS chemistry in the nested-grid GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, whose simulations provide a good account of the field measurements during winter haze episodes. We find the contribution of the aqueous aerosol pathway to total HMS is about 36% in winter in Beijing, due primarily to the enhancement effect of the ionic strength on the rate constants of the reaction between dissolved formaldehyde and sulfite. Our simulations suggest that the HMS-to-inorganic sulfate ratio will increase from the baseline of 7% to 13% in the near future, given the ambitious clean air and climate mitigation policies for the BTH region. The more rapid reductions in emissions of SO2 and NOx compared to NH3 alter the atmospheric acidity, which is a critical factor leading to the rising importance of HMS in particulate sulfur species.

A single-point modeling approach for the intercomparison and evaluation of ozone dry deposition across chemical transport models (Activity 2 of AQMEII4).

A primary sink of air pollutants and their precursors is dry deposition. Dry deposition estimates differ across chemical transport models, yet an understanding of the model spread is incomplete. Here, we introduce Activity 2 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative Phase 4 (AQMEII4). We examine 18 dry deposition schemes from regional and global chemical transport models as well as standalone models used for impact assessments or process understanding. We configure the schemes as single-point models at eight Northern Hemisphere locations with observed ozone fluxes. Single-point models are driven by a common set of site-specific meteorological and environmental conditions. Five of eight sites have at least 3 years and up to 12 years of ozone fluxes. The interquartile range across models in multiyear mean ozone deposition velocities ranges from a factor of 1.2 to 1.9 annually across sites and tends to be highest during winter compared with summer. No model is within 50 % of observed multiyear averages across all sites and seasons, but some models perform well for some sites and seasons. For the first time, we demonstrate how contributions from depositional pathways vary across models. Models can disagree with respect to relative contributions from the pathways, even when they predict similar deposition velocities, or agree with respect to the relative contributions but predict different deposition velocities. Both stomatal and nonstomatal uptake contribute to the large model spread across sites. Our findings are the beginning of results from AQMEII4 Activity 2, which brings scientists who model air quality and dry deposition together with scientists who measure ozone fluxes to evaluate and improve dry deposition schemes in the chemical transport models used for research, planning, and regulatory purposes.

Dry Deposition Methods Based on Turbulence Kinetic Energy: Part 1. Evaluation of Various Resistances and Sensitivity Studies Using a Single-Point Model.

Different functions are used to account for turbulence strength in the atmospheric boundary layer for different stability regimes. These functions are one of the sources for differences among different atmospheric models' predictions and associated biases. Also, turbulence strength is underrepresented in some of the resistance formulations. To address these issues with dry deposition, firstly we take advantage of three-dimensional (3-D) turbulence information in estimating resistances by proposing and validating a 3-D turbulence velocity scale that is relevant for different stability regimes of boundary layer. Secondly, we hypothesize and validate that friction velocity measured by 3-D sonic anemometer can be effectively replaced by the new turbulence velocity scale multiplied by the von Karman constant. Finally, we (1) present a set of resistance formulations for ozone (O3) based on the 3-D turbulence velocity scale; (2) intercompare estimations of such resistances with those obtained using existing formulations; and, (3) evaluate simulated O3 fluxes using a single-point dry deposition model against long-term observations of O3 fluxes at the Harvard Forest (MA) site. Results indicate that the new resistance formulations work very well in simulating surface latent heat and O3 fluxes when compared to respective existing formulations and measurements at a decadal time scale. Findings from this research may help to improve the capability of dry deposition schemes for better estimation of dry deposition fluxes and create opportunities for the development of a community dry deposition model for use in regional/global air quality models.

Peak radial growth of diffuse-porous species occurs during periods of lower water availability than for ring-porous and coniferous trees.

Climate models project warmer summer temperatures will increase the frequency and heat severity of droughts in temperate forests of Eastern North America. Hotter droughts are increasingly documented to affect tree growth and forest dynamics, with critical impacts on tree mortality, carbon sequestration and timber provision. The growing acknowledgement of the dominant role of drought timing on tree vulnerability to water deficit raises the issue of our limited understanding of radial growth phenology for most temperate tree species. Here, we use well-replicated dendrometer band data sampled frequently during the growing season to assess the growth phenology of 610 trees from 15 temperate species over 6 years. Patterns of diameter growth follow a typical logistic shape, with growth rates reaching a maximum in June, and then decreasing until process termination. On average, we find that diffuse-porous species take 16-18 days less than other wood-structure types to put on 50% of their annual diameter growth. However, their peak growth rate occurs almost a full month later than ring-porous and conifer species (ca. 24 ± 4 days; mean ± 95% credible interval). Unlike other species, the growth phenology of diffuse-porous species in our dataset is highly correlated with their spring foliar phenology. We also find that the later window of growth in diffuse-porous species, coinciding with peak evapotranspiration and lower water availability, exposes them to a higher water deficit of 88 ± 19 mm (mean ± SE) during their peak growth than ring-porous and coniferous species (15 ± 35 mm and 30 ± 30 mm, respectively). Given the high climatic sensitivity of wood formation, our findings highlight the importance of wood porosity as one predictor of species climatic sensitivity to the projected intensification of the drought regime in the coming decades.

Previously unaccounted atmospheric mercury deposition in a midlatitude deciduous forest.

Mercury is toxic to wildlife and humans, and forests are thought to be a globally important sink for gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) deposition from the atmosphere. Yet there are currently no annual GEM deposition measurements over rural forests. Here we present measurements of ecosystem-atmosphere GEM exchange using tower-based micrometeorological methods in a midlatitude hardwood forest. We measured an annual GEM deposition of 25.1 µg ⋅ m-2 (95% CI: 23.2 to 26.7 1 µg ⋅ m-2), which is five times larger than wet deposition of mercury from the atmosphere. Our observed annual GEM deposition accounts for 76% of total atmospheric mercury deposition and also is three times greater than litterfall mercury deposition, which has previously been used as a proxy measure for GEM deposition in forests. Plant GEM uptake is the dominant driver for ecosystem GEM deposition based on seasonal and diel dynamics that show the forest GEM sink to be largest during active vegetation growing periods and middays, analogous to photosynthetic carbon dioxide assimilation. Soils and litter on the forest floor are additional GEM sinks throughout the year. Our study suggests that mercury loading to this forest was underestimated by a factor of about two and that global forests may constitute a much larger global GEM sink than currently proposed. The larger than anticipated forest GEM sink may explain the high mercury loads observed in soils across rural forests, which impair water quality and aquatic biota via watershed Hg export.

Global Importance of Hydroxymethanesulfonate in Ambient Particulate Matter: Implications for Air Quality.

Sulfur compounds are an important constituent of particulate matter, with impacts on climate and public health. While most sulfur observed in particulate matter has been assumed to be sulfate, laboratory experiments reveal that hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS), an adduct formed by aqueous phase chemical reaction of dissolved HCHO and SO2, may be easily misinterpreted in measurements as sulfate. Here we present observational and modeling evidence for a ubiquitous global presence of HMS. We find that filter samples collected in Shijiazhuang, China, and examined with ion chromatography within 9 days show as much as 7.6 µg m-3 of HMS, while samples from Singapore examined 9-18 months after collection reveal ~0.6 µg m-3 of HMS. The Shijiazhuang samples show only minor traces of HMS 4 months later, suggesting that HMS had decomposed over time during sample storage. In contrast, the Singapore samples do not clearly show a decline in HMS concentration over 2 months of monitoring. Measurements from over 150 sites, primarily derived from the IMPROVE network across the United States, suggest the ubiquitous presence of HMS in at least trace amounts as much as 60 days after collection. The degree of possible HMS decomposition in the IMPROVE observations is unknown. Using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, we estimate that HMS may account for 10% of global particulate sulfur in continental surface air and over 25% in many polluted regions. Our results suggest that reducing emissions of HCHO and other volatile organic compounds may have a co-benefit of decreasing particulate sulfur.

Direct measurement forest carbon protocol: a commercial system-of-systems to incentivize forest restoration and management.

Forest carbon sequestration offsets are methodologically uncertain, comprise a minor component of carbon markets and do not effectively slow deforestation. The objective of this study is to describe a commercial scale in situ measurement approach for determination of net forest carbon sequestration projects, the Direct Measurement Forest Carbon Protocol™, to address forest carbon market uncertainties. In contrast to protocols that rely on limited forest mensuration, growth simulation and exclusion of CO2 data, the Direct Measurement Forest Carbon Protocol™ is based on standardized methods for direct determination of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 employing eddy covariance, a meteorological approach integrating forest carbon fluxes. NEE is used here as the basis for quantifying the first of its kind carbon financial products. The DMFCP differentiates physical, project and financial carbon within a System-of-Systems™ (SoS) network architecture. SoS sensor nodes, the Global Monitoring Platform™ (GMP), housing analyzers for CO2 isotopologues (e.g., 12CO2, 13CO2, 14CO2) and greenhouse gases are deployed across the project landscape. The SoS standardizes and automates GMP measurement, uncertainty and reporting functions creating diverse forest carbon portfolios while reducing cost and investment risk in alignment with modern portfolio theory. To illustrate SoS field deployment and operation, published annual NEE data for a tropical (Ankasa Park, Ghana, Africa) and a deciduous forest (Harvard Forest, Petersham, MA, USA) are used to forecast carbon revenue. Carbon pricing scenarios are combined with historical in situ NEE annual time-series to extrapolate pre-tax revenue for each project applied to 100,000 acres (40,469 hectares) of surrounding land. Based on carbon pricing of $5 to $36 per ton CO2 equivalent (tCO2eq) and observed NEE sequestration rates of 0.48 to 15.60 tCO2eq acre-1 yr-1, pre-tax cash flows ranging from $230,000 to $16,380,000 across project time-series are calculated, up to 5×  revenue for contemporary voluntary offsets, demonstrating new economic incentives to reverse deforestation. The SoS concept of operation and architecture, with engineering development, can be extended to diverse gas species across terrestrial, aquatic and oceanic ecosystems, harmonizing voluntary and compliance market products worldwide to assist in the management of global warming. The Direct Measurement Forest Carbon Protocol reduces risk of invalidation intrinsic to estimation-based protocols such as the Climate Action Reserve and the Clean Development Mechanism that do not observe molecular CO2 to calibrate financial products. Multinational policy applications such as the Paris Agreement and the United Nations Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation, constrained by Kyoto Protocol era processes, will benefit from NEE measurement avoiding unsupported claims of emission reduction, fraud, and forest conservation policy failure.

Dry Deposition of Ozone over Land: Processes, Measurement, and Modeling.

Dry deposition of ozone is an important sink of ozone in near surface air. When dry deposition occurs through plant stomata, ozone can injure the plant, altering water and carbon cycling and reducing crop yields. Quantifying both stomatal and nonstomatal uptake accurately is relevant for understanding ozone's impact on human health as an air pollutant and on climate as a potent short-lived greenhouse gas and primary control on the removal of several reactive greenhouse gases and air pollutants. Robust ozone dry deposition estimates require knowledge of the relative importance of individual deposition pathways, but spatiotemporal variability in nonstomatal deposition is poorly understood. Here we integrate understanding of ozone deposition processes by synthesizing research from fields such as atmospheric chemistry, ecology, and meteorology. We critically review methods for measurements and modeling, highlighting the empiricism that underpins modeling and thus the interpretation of observations. Our unprecedented synthesis of knowledge on deposition pathways, particularly soil and leaf cuticles, reveals process understanding not yet included in widely-used models. If coordinated with short-term field intensives, laboratory studies, and mechanistic modeling, measurements from a few long-term sites would bridge the molecular to ecosystem scales necessary to establish the relative importance of individual deposition pathways and the extent to which they vary in space and time. Our recommended approaches seek to close knowledge gaps that currently limit quantifying the impact of ozone dry deposition on air quality, ecosystems, and climate.

Disentangling the role of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance on rising forest water-use efficiency.

Multiple lines of evidence suggest that plant water-use efficiency (WUE)-the ratio of carbon assimilation to water loss-has increased in recent decades. Although rising atmospheric CO2 has been proposed as the principal cause, the underlying physiological mechanisms are still being debated, and implications for the global water cycle remain uncertain. Here, we addressed this gap using 30-y tree ring records of carbon and oxygen isotope measurements and basal area increment from 12 species in 8 North American mature temperate forests. Our goal was to separate the contributions of enhanced photosynthesis and reduced stomatal conductance to WUE trends and to assess consistency between multiple commonly used methods for estimating WUE. Our results show that tree ring-derived estimates of increases in WUE are consistent with estimates from atmospheric measurements and predictions based on an optimal balancing of carbon gains and water costs, but are lower than those based on ecosystem-scale flux observations. Although both physiological mechanisms contributed to rising WUE, enhanced photosynthesis was widespread, while reductions in stomatal conductance were modest and restricted to species that experienced moisture limitations. This finding challenges the hypothesis that rising WUE in forests is primarily the result of widespread, CO2-induced reductions in stomatal conductance.

Assessing the interplay between canopy energy balance and photosynthesis with cellulose δ18O: large-scale patterns and independent ground-truthing.

There are few whole-canopy or ecosystem scale assessments of the interplay between canopy temperature and photosynthesis across both spatial and temporal scales. The stable oxygen isotope ratio (δ18O) of plant cellulose can be used to resolve a photosynthesis-weighted estimate of canopy temperature, but the method requires independent confirmation. We compare isotope-resolved canopy temperatures derived from multi-year homogenization of tree cellulose δ18O to canopy-air temperatures weighted by gross primary productivity (GPP) at multiple sites, ranging from warm temperate to boreal and subalpine forests. We also perform a sensitivity analysis for isotope-resolved canopy temperatures that showed errors in plant source water δ18O lead to the largest errors in canopy temperature estimation. The relationship between isotope-resolved canopy temperatures and GPP-weighted air temperatures was highly significant across sites (p < 0.0001, R2 = 0.82), thus offering confirmation of the isotope approach. The previously observed temperature invariance from temperate to boreal biomes was confirmed, but the greater elevation of canopy temperature above air temperature in the boreal forest was not. Based on the current analysis, we conclude that canopy temperatures in the boreal forest are as warm as those in temperate systems because day-time-growing-season air temperatures are similarly warm.

Chlorophyll fluorescence tracks seasonal variations of photosynthesis from leaf to canopy in a temperate forest.

Accurate estimation of terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) remains a challenge despite its importance in the global carbon cycle. Chlorophyll fluorescence (ChlF) has been recently adopted to understand photosynthesis and its response to the environment, particularly with remote sensing data. However, it remains unclear how ChlF and photosynthesis are linked at different spatial scales across the growing season. We examined seasonal relationships between ChlF and photosynthesis at the leaf, canopy, and ecosystem scales and explored how leaf-level ChlF was linked with canopy-scale solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) in a temperate deciduous forest at Harvard Forest, Massachusetts, USA. Our results show that ChlF captured the seasonal variations of photosynthesis with significant linear relationships between ChlF and photosynthesis across the growing season over different spatial scales (R2  = 0.73, 0.77, and 0.86 at leaf, canopy, and satellite scales, respectively; P < 0.0001). We developed a model to estimate GPP from the tower-based measurement of SIF and leaf-level ChlF parameters. The estimation of GPP from this model agreed well with flux tower observations of GPP (R2  = 0.68; P < 0.0001), demonstrating the potential of SIF for modeling GPP. At the leaf scale, we found that leaf Fq '/Fm ', the fraction of absorbed photons that are used for photochemistry for a light-adapted measurement from a pulse amplitude modulation fluorometer, was the best leaf fluorescence parameter to correlate with canopy SIF yield (SIF/APAR, R2  = 0.79; P < 0.0001). We also found that canopy SIF and SIF-derived GPP (GPPSIF ) were strongly correlated to leaf-level biochemistry and canopy structure, including chlorophyll content (R2  = 0.65 for canopy GPPSIF and chlorophyll content; P < 0.0001), leaf area index (LAI) (R2  = 0.35 for canopy GPPSIF and LAI; P < 0.0001), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (R2  = 0.36 for canopy GPPSIF and NDVI; P < 0.0001). Our results suggest that ChlF can be a powerful tool to track photosynthetic rates at leaf, canopy, and ecosystem scales.

Ecosystem fluxes of hydrogen in a mid-latitude forest driven by soil microorganisms and plants.

Molecular hydrogen (H2 ) is an atmospheric trace gas with a large microbe-mediated soil sink, yet cycling of this compound throughout ecosystems is poorly understood. Measurements of the sources and sinks of H2 in various ecosystems are sparse, resulting in large uncertainties in the global H2 budget. Constraining the H2 cycle is critical to understanding its role in atmospheric chemistry and climate. We measured H2 fluxes at high frequency in a temperate mixed deciduous forest for 15 months using a tower-based flux-gradient approach to determine both the soil-atmosphere and the net ecosystem flux of H2 . We found that Harvard Forest is a net H2 sink (-1.4 ± 1.1 kg H2  ha-1 ) with soils as the dominant H2 sink (-2.0 ± 1.0 kg H2  ha-1 ) and aboveground canopy emissions as the dominant H2 source (+0.6 ± 0.8 kg H2  ha-1 ). Aboveground emissions of H2 were an unexpected and substantial component of the ecosystem H2 flux, reducing net ecosystem uptake by 30% of that calculated from soil uptake alone. Soil uptake was highly seasonal (July maximum, February minimum), positively correlated with soil temperature and negatively correlated with environmental variables relevant to diffusion into soils (i.e., soil moisture, snow depth, snow density). Soil microbial H2 uptake was correlated with rhizosphere respiration rates (r = 0.8, P < 0.001), and H2 metabolism yielded up to 2% of the energy gleaned by microbes from carbon substrate respiration. Here, we elucidate key processes controlling the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of H2 and raise new questions regarding the role of aboveground biomass as a source of atmospheric H2 and mechanisms linking soil H2 and carbon cycling. Results from this study should be incorporated into modeling efforts to predict the response of the H2 soil sink to changes in anthropogenic H2 emissions and shifting soil conditions with climate and land-use change.

Comparison of net ecosystem carbon exchange estimation in a mixed temperate forest using field eddy covariance and MODIS data.

Quantification of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) between the atmosphere and vegetation is of great importance for regional and global studies of carbon balance. The eddy covariance technique can quantify carbon budgets and the effects of environmental controls for many forest types across the continent but it only provides integrated CO2 flux measurements within tower footprints and need to be scaled up to large areas in combination with remote sensing observations. In this study we compare a multiple-linear regression (MR) model which relates enhanced vegetation index and land surface temperature derived from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS), and photosynthetically active radiation with the site-level NEE, for estimating carbon flux exchange between the ecosystem and the environment at the deciduous-dominated Harvard Forest to three other methods proposed in the literature. Six years (2001-2006) of eddy covariance and MODIS data are used and results show that the MR model has the best performance for both training (2001-2004, R (2) = 0.84, RMSE = 1.33 g Cm(-2) day(-1)) and validation (2005-2006, R (2) = 0.76, RMSE = 1.54 g Cm(-2) day(-1)) datasets comparing to the other ones. It provides the potential to estimate carbon flux exchange across different ecosystems at various time intervals for scaling up plot-level NEE of CO2 to large spatial areas.

Seasonal fluxes of carbonyl sulfide in a midlatitude forest.

Carbonyl sulfide (OCS), the most abundant sulfur gas in the atmosphere, has a summer minimum associated with uptake by vegetation and soils, closely correlated with CO2. We report the first direct measurements to our knowledge of the ecosystem flux of OCS throughout an annual cycle, at a mixed temperate forest. The forest took up OCS during most of the growing season with an overall uptake of 1.36 ± 0.01 mol OCS per ha (43.5 ± 0.5 g S per ha, 95% confidence intervals) for the year. Daytime fluxes accounted for 72% of total uptake. Both soils and incompletely closed stomata in the canopy contributed to nighttime fluxes. Unexpected net OCS emission occurred during the warmest weeks in summer. Many requirements necessary to use fluxes of OCS as a simple estimate of photosynthesis were not met because OCS fluxes did not have a constant relationship with photosynthesis throughout an entire day or over the entire year. However, OCS fluxes provide a direct measure of ecosystem-scale stomatal conductance and mesophyll function, without relying on measures of soil evaporation or leaf temperature, and reveal previously unseen heterogeneity of forest canopy processes. Observations of OCS flux provide powerful, independent means to test and refine land surface and carbon cycle models at the ecosystem scale.

Greenness indices from digital cameras predict the timing and seasonal dynamics of canopy-scale photosynthesis.

The proliferation of digital cameras co-located with eddy covariance instrumentation provides new opportunities to better understand the relationship between canopy phenology and the seasonality of canopy photosynthesis. In this paper we analyze the abilities and limitations of canopy color metrics measured by digital repeat photography to track seasonal canopy development and photosynthesis, determine phenological transition dates, and estimate intra-annual and interannual variability in canopy photosynthesis. We used 59 site-years of camera imagery and net ecosystem exchange measurements from 17 towers spanning three plant functional types (deciduous broadleaf forest, evergreen needleleaf forest, and grassland/crops) to derive color indices and estimate gross primary productivity (GPP). GPP was strongly correlated with greenness derived from camera imagery in all three plant functional types. Specifically, the beginning of the photosynthetic period in deciduous broadleaf forest and grassland/crops and the end of the photosynthetic period in grassland/crops were both correlated with changes in greenness; changes in redness were correlated with the end of the photosynthetic period in deciduous broadleaf forest. However, it was not possible to accurately identify the beginning or ending of the photosynthetic period using camera greenness in evergreen needleleaf forest. At deciduous broadleaf sites, anomalies in integrated greenness and total GPP were significantly correlated up to 60 days after the mean onset date for the start of spring. More generally, results from this work demonstrate that digital repeat photography can be used to quantify both the duration of the photosynthetically active period as well as total GPP in deciduous broadleaf forest and grassland/crops, but that new and different approaches are required before comparable results can be achieved in evergreen needleleaf forest.

Influence of physiological phenology on the seasonal pattern of ecosystem respiration in deciduous forests.

Understanding the environmental and biotic drivers of respiration at the ecosystem level is a prerequisite to further improve scenarios of the global carbon cycle. In this study we investigated the relevance of physiological phenology, defined as seasonal changes in plant physiological properties, for explaining the temporal dynamics of ecosystem respiration (RECO) in deciduous forests. Previous studies showed that empirical RECO models can be substantially improved by considering the biotic dependency of RECO on the short-term productivity (e.g., daily gross primary production, GPP) in addition to the well-known environmental controls of temperature and water availability. Here, we use a model-data integration approach to investigate the added value of physiological phenology, represented by the first temporal derivative of GPP, or alternatively of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation, for modeling RECO at 19 deciduous broadleaved forests in the FLUXNET La Thuile database. The new data-oriented semiempirical model leads to an 8% decrease in root mean square error (RMSE) and a 6% increase in the modeling efficiency (EF) of modeled RECO when compared to a version of the model that does not consider the physiological phenology. The reduction of the model-observation bias occurred mainly at the monthly time scale, and in spring and summer, while a smaller reduction was observed at the annual time scale. The proposed approach did not improve the model performance at several sites, and we identified as potential causes the plant canopy heterogeneity and the use of air temperature as a driver of ecosystem respiration instead of soil temperature. However, in the majority of sites the model-error remained unchanged regardless of the driving temperature. Overall, our results point toward the potential for improving current approaches for modeling RECO in deciduous forests by including the phenological cycle of the canopy.

Increase in forest water-use efficiency as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rise.

Terrestrial plants remove CO2 from the atmosphere through photosynthesis, a process that is accompanied by the loss of water vapour from leaves. The ratio of water loss to carbon gain, or water-use efficiency, is a key characteristic of ecosystem function that is central to the global cycles of water, energy and carbon. Here we analyse direct, long-term measurements of whole-ecosystem carbon and water exchange. We find a substantial increase in water-use efficiency in temperate and boreal forests of the Northern Hemisphere over the past two decades. We systematically assess various competing hypotheses to explain this trend, and find that the observed increase is most consistent with a strong CO2 fertilization effect. The results suggest a partial closure of stomata-small pores on the leaf surface that regulate gas exchange-to maintain a near-constant concentration of CO2 inside the leaf even under continually increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. The observed increase in forest water-use efficiency is larger than that predicted by existing theory and 13 terrestrial biosphere models. The increase is associated with trends of increasing ecosystem-level photosynthesis and net carbon uptake, and decreasing evapotranspiration. Our findings suggest a shift in the carbon- and water-based economics of terrestrial vegetation, which may require a reassessment of the role of stomatal control in regulating interactions between forests and climate change, and a re-evaluation of coupled vegetation-climate models.

Rate my data: quantifying the value of ecological data for the development of models of the terrestrial carbon cycle.

Primarily driven by concern about rising levels of atmospheric CO2, ecologists and earth system scientists are collecting vast amounts of data related to the carbon cycle. These measurements are generally time consuming and expensive to make, and, unfortunately, we live in an era where research funding is increasingly hard to come by. Thus, important questions are: "Which data streams provide the most valuable information?" and "How much data do we need?" These questions are relevant not only for model developers, who need observational data to improve, constrain, and test their models, but also for experimentalists and those designing ecological observation networks. Here we address these questions using a model-data fusion approach. We constrain a process-oriented, forest ecosystem C cycle model with 17 different data streams from the Harvard Forest (Massachusetts, USA). We iteratively rank each data source according to its contribution to reducing model uncertainty. Results show the importance of some measurements commonly unavailable to carbon-cycle modelers, such as estimates of turnover times from different carbon pools. Surprisingly, many data sources are relatively redundant in the presence of others and do not lead to a significant improvement in model performance. A few select data sources lead to the largest reduction in parameter-based model uncertainty. Projections of future carbon cycling were poorly constrained when only hourly net-ecosystem-exchange measurements were used to inform the model. They were well constrained, however, with only 5 of the 17 data streams, even though many individual parameters are not constrained. The approach taken here should stimulate further cooperation between modelers and measurement teams and may be useful in the context of setting research priorities and allocating research funds.