Assessing freedom from chronic wasting disease in semi-domesticated reindeer in Norway and Sweden.

Establishing freedom from disease is a key component of surveillance and may have direct consequences for trade and economy. Transboundary populations pose challenges in terms of variable legislation, efforts, and data availability between countries, often limiting surveillance efficiency. Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a contagious prion disease of cervids. The long incubation period and slow initial epidemic growth make it notoriously difficult to detect CWD in the early phase of an epidemic. The recent emergence of CWD in wild reindeer in Norway poses a threat to approximately 250,000 semi-domesticated reindeer in Norway and 250,000 in Sweden, including transboundary populations. Here, we provide a first analysis of surveillance data (2016-2022) from all reindeer districts in Norway and Sweden to determine the probability of freedom from CWD infection. During the six years, 6017 semi-domesticated reindeer were tested in Sweden and 51,974 in Norway. Most samples came from healthy slaughtered animals (low risk). Reindeer use large and remote areas and (high risk) samples from fallen stock and animals with clinical signs were difficult to obtain. A scenario tree model was run for seven different set of values for the input parameters (design prevalence within and between districts, probability of introduction, and relative risks) to determine the effect on surveillance sensitivity. At the national level, the mean probability of disease freedom was 59.0 % in Sweden and 87.0 % in Norway by 2021. The most marked effect on sensitivity was varying the design prevalence both within and between districts. Uncertainty about relative risk ratios affected sensitivity for Sweden more than for Norway, due to the higher proportion of animals in the high-risk group in the former (13.8 % vs. 2.1 %, respectively). A probability of disease freedom of 90 % or higher was reached in 8.2 % of the 49 districts in Sweden and 43.5 % of the 46 districts in Norway for a design prevalence of 0.5 %. The probability of freedom remained below 60 % in 29 districts (59.2 %) in Sweden and 10 districts (21.7 %) in Norway. At the national level, only Norway had a sufficiently large number of samples to reach a probability of more than 95 % of disease freedom within a period of 10 years. Our cross-border assessment forms an important knowledge base for designing future surveillance efforts depending on the spatial pattern of prevalence of CWD and risk of spread.

Sporadic cases of chronic wasting disease in old moose - an epidemiological study.

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies or prion diseases comprise diseases with different levels of contagiousness under natural conditions. The hypothesis has been raised that the chronic wasting disease (CWD) cases detected in Nordic moose (Alces alces) may be less contagious, or not contagious between live animals under field conditions. This study aims to investigate the epidemiology of CWD cases detected in moose in Norway, Sweden and Finland using surveillance data from 2016 to 2022.In total, 18 CWD cases were detected in Nordic moose. All moose were positive for prion (PrPres) detection in the brain, but negative in lymph nodes, all were old (mean 16 years; range 12-20) and all except one, were female. Age appeared to be a strong risk factor, and the sex difference may be explained by few males reaching high age due to hunting targeting calves, yearlings and males.The cases were geographically scattered, distributed over 15 municipalities. However, three cases were detected in each of two areas, Selbu in Norway and Arjeplog-Arvidsjaur in Sweden. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was applied to investigate the likelihood of such clustering occurring by chance, given the assumption of a non-contagious disease. The empirical P-value for obtaining three cases in one Norwegian municipality was less than 0.05, indicating clustering. However, the moose in Selbu were affected by different CWD strains, and over a 6 year period with intensive surveillance, the apparent prevalence decreased, which would not be expected for an ongoing outbreak of CWD. Likewise, the three cases in Arjeplog-Arvidsjaur could also indicate clustering, but management practices promotes a larger proportion of old females and the detection of the first CWD case contributed to increased awareness and sampling.The results of our study show that the CWD cases detected so far in Nordic moose have a different epidemiology compared to CWD cases reported from North America and in Norwegian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus). The results support the hypothesis that these cases are less contagious or not contagious between live animals under field conditions. To enable differentiation from other types of CWD, we support the use of sporadic CWD (sCWD) among the names already in use.

Heterogeneity of pathological prion protein accumulation in the brain of moose (Alces alces) from Norway, Sweden and Finland with chronic wasting disease.

Prion diseases are a group of neurodegenerative, transmissible, and fatal disorders that affect several animal species. They are characterized by the conformational conversion of the cellular prion protein (PrPC) into the pathological prion protein (PrPSc). In 2016, chronic wasting disease (CWD) gained great importance at European level due to the first disease detection in a wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) in Norway. The subsequent intensive CWD surveillance launched in cervids resulted in the detection of CWD in moose (Alces alces), with 11 cases in Norway, 3 in Finland and 4 in Sweden. These moose cases differ considerably from CWD cases in North American and reindeer in Norway, as PrPSc was detectable in the brain but not in lymphoid tissues. These facts suggest the occurrence of a new type of CWD. Here, we show some immunohistochemical features that are clearly different from CWD cases in North American and Norwegian reindeer. Further, the different types of PrPSc deposits found among moose demonstrate strong variations between the cases, supporting the postulation that these cases could carry multiple strains of CWD.

Monitoring of chronic wasting disease (CWD) (IV).

The European Commission requested an analysis of the Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) monitoring programme in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland (9 January 2017-28 February 2022). Thirteen cases were detected in reindeer, 15 in moose and 3 in red deer. They showed two phenotypes, distinguished by the presence or absence of detectable disease-associated normal cellular prion protein (PrP) in lymphoreticular tissues. CWD was detected for the first time in Finland, Sweden and in other areas of Norway. In countries where the disease was not detected, the evidence was insufficient to rule out its presence altogether. Where cases were detected, the prevalence was below 1%. The data also suggest that the high-risk target groups for surveillance should be revised, and 'road kill' removed. Data show that, in addition to differences in age and sex, there are differences in the prion protein gene (PRNP) genotypes between positive and negative wild reindeer. A stepwise framework has been proposed with expanded minimum background surveillance to be implemented in European countries with relevant cervid species. Additional surveillance may include ad hoc surveys for four different objectives, specific to countries with/without cases, focusing on parallel testing of obex and lymph nodes from adult cervids in high-risk target groups, sustained over time, using sampling units and a data-driven design prevalence. Criteria for assessing the probability of CWD presence have been outlined, based on the definition of the geographical area, an annual assessment of risk of introduction, sustained minimum background surveillance, training and engagement of stakeholders and a surveillance programme based on data-driven parameters. All positive cases should be genotyped. Sample sizes for negative samples have been proposed to detect and estimate the frequency of PRNP polymorphisms. Double-strand sequencing of the entire PRNP open reading frame should be undertaken for all selected samples, with data collated in a centralised collection system at EU level.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI H5Nx, Clade 2.3.4.4.b) in Poultry and Wild Birds in Sweden: Synopsis of the 2020-2021 Season.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI, Gs/Gd lineage) was introduced to Europe in 2005 and has since caused numerous outbreaks in birds. The 2020-2021 season was the hitherto most devastating when considering bird numbers and duration in Europe. Surveillance data, virologic results and epidemiologic investigations from the 2020-2021 outbreaks in Sweden were analysed. Subtypes H5N8 and H5N5 were detected on 24 farms with poultry or other captive birds. In wild birds, subtypes H5N8, H5N5, H5N1, H5N4, H5Nx were detected in 130 out of 811 sampled birds. There was a spatiotemporal association between cases in wild birds and poultry. Based on phylogeny and epidemiology, most of the introductions of HPAI to commercial poultry were likely a result of indirect contact with wild birds. A definite route of introduction to poultry could not be established although some biosecurity breaches were observed. No spread between farms was identified but airborne spread between flocks on the same farm was suspected. Our findings exemplify the challenges posed by the continuously changing influenza viruses that seem to adapt to a broader species spectrum. This points to the importance of wild bird surveillance, compliance to biosecurity, and identification of risk factors for introduction on poultry farms.

Chronic wasting disease in Europe: new strains on the horizon.

Prion diseases are fatal neurodegenerative disorders with known natural occurrence in humans and a few other mammalian species. The diseases are experimentally transmissible, and the agent is derived from the host-encoded cellular prion protein (PrPC), which is misfolded into a pathogenic conformer, designated PrPSc (scrapie). Aggregates of PrPSc molecules, constitute proteinaceous infectious particles, known as prions. Classical scrapie in sheep and goats and chronic wasting disease (CWD) in cervids are known to be infectious under natural conditions. In CWD, infected animals can shed prions via bodily excretions, allowing direct host-to-host transmission or indirectly via prion-contaminated environments. The robustness of prions means that transmission via the latter route can be highly successful and has meant that limiting the spread of CWD has proven difficult. In 2016, CWD was diagnosed for the first time in Europe, in reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) and European moose (Alces alces). Both were diagnosed in Norway, and, subsequently, more cases were detected in a semi-isolated wild reindeer population in the Nordfjella area, in which the first case was identified. This population was culled, and all reindeer (approximately 2400) were tested for CWD; 18 positive animals, in addition to the first diagnosed case, were found. After two years and around 25,900 negative tests from reindeer (about 6500 from wild and 19,400 from semi-domesticated) in Norway, a new case was diagnosed in a wild reindeer buck on Hardangervidda, south of the Nordfjella area, in 2020. Further cases of CWD were also identified in moose, with a total of eight in Norway, four in Sweden, and two cases in Finland. The mean age of these cases is 14.7 years, and the pathological features are different from North American CWD and from the Norwegian reindeer cases, resembling atypical prion diseases such as Nor98/atypical scrapie and H- and L-forms of BSE. In this review, these moose cases are referred to as atypical CWD. In addition, two cases were diagnosed in red deer (Cervus elaphus) in Norway. The emergence of CWD in Europe is a threat to European cervid populations, and, potentially, a food-safety challenge, calling for a swift, evidence-based response. Here, we review data on surveillance, epidemiology, and disease characteristics, including prion strain features of the newly identified European CWD agents.

First Detection of Chronic Wasting Disease in Moose (Alces alces) in Sweden.

We report the first detection of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in Sweden, in three old female moose (Alces alces). Prions (PrPCWD) were detected in brain but not in lymph nodes. The findings are similar to previously described CWD cases in old moose in Norway, where a spontaneous origin is hypothesized.

Evaluation of Strategies to Control a Potential Outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Sweden.

To minimize the potential consequences of an introduction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Europe, European Union (EU) member states are required to present a contingency plan. This study used a simulation model to study potential outbreak scenarios in Sweden and evaluate the best control strategies. The model was informed by the Swedish livestock structure using herd information from cattle, pig, and small ruminant holdings in the country. The contact structure was based on animal movement data and studies investigating the movements between farms of veterinarians, service trucks, and other farm visitors. All scenarios of outbreak control included depopulation of detected herds, 3 km protection and 10 km surveillance zones, movement tracing, and 3 days national standstill. The effect of availability of surveillance resources, i.e., number of field veterinarians per day, and timeliness of enforcement of interventions, was assessed. With the estimated currently available resources, an FMD outbreak in Sweden is expected to be controlled (i.e., last infected herd detected) within 3 weeks of detection in any evaluated scenario. The density of farms in the area where the epidemic started would have little impact on the time to control the outbreak, but spread in high density areas would require more surveillance resources, compared to areas of lower farm density. The use of vaccination did not result in a reduction in the expected number of infected herds. Preemptive depopulation was able to reduce the number of infected herds in extreme scenarios designed to test a combination of worst-case conditions of virus introduction and spread, but at the cost of doubling the number of herds culled. This likely resulted from a combination of the small outbreaks predicted by the spread model, and the high efficacy of the basic control measures evaluated, under the conditions of the Swedish livestock industry, and considering the assumed control resources available. The results indicate that the duration and extent of FMD outbreaks could be kept limited in Sweden using the EU standard control strategy and a 3 days national standstill.

Swedish Farmers' Opinions about Biosecurity and Their Intention to Make Professionals Use Clean Protective Clothing When Entering the Stable.

The study was part of a series of studies aiming to increase knowledge about spread and prevention of livestock diseases in Sweden. A specific biosecurity behavior, i.e., making professionals (e.g., veterinarian, repairman, livestock transporter) wear clean protective clothing when entering the stables was investigated through focus groups and a questionnaire survey. This behavior was seen as a proxy for other biosecurity behaviors. As part of questionnaire development, three focus group discussions with a total of 11 participating livestock farmers were held. The questionnaire was based on the model of Theory of Planned Behavior. Response was received from 2,081 farmers. In the focus groups, farmers expressed a willingness to provide visitors with clean protective clothing. However, some had experienced difficulties in making veterinarians use protective clothing, and mentioned a reluctance to correct their veterinarians. The participants mostly focused on diseases regulated by control programs, especially Salmonella. In parts, participants were well informed but some showed a lack of knowledge concerning routes of disease spread. They also mentioned external factors that made them deviate from biosecurity recommendations. Farmers called for biosecurity advice with focus on cost-benefit return. Among survey respondents, the intention to make visitors wear protective clothing was moderate. Analysis of underlying elements showed that a majority of farmers (88%) had a neutral attitude, i.e., they were neither in favor nor against this behavior. Measures of subjective norm indicated a varying degree of social pressure among respondents. However, the majority (63%) indicated a strong behavioral control, thus suggesting that they could make visitors use protective clothing if they wanted to. Although most farmers (84%) indicated a strong willingness to comply with the opinion of their veterinarians in biosecurity matters, 30% replied that their farm veterinarian is indifferent or negative toward making visitors use protective clothing. Demographic factors were significantly associated with the intention, and farmers with pigs, larger herds, and female farmers had a stronger intention. Regional differences were also found. The findings provide new insights into why farmers apply, or do not apply, biosecurity routines, and will be useful in the on-going work to improve farm biosecurity in Sweden.

Differing perceptions - Swedish farmers' views of infectious disease control.

Although farm biosecurity reduces the risk of disease spread among livestock, this knowledge is not always applied. Farmers' application of disease preventive measures is expected to depend on many things, e.g. whether they consider disease prevention possible and demographic factors. In this study, Swedish livestock farmers' perspectives on occurrence, control and communication related to infectious livestock diseases were investigated. A questionnaire study was performed in 2012-2013, and included responses from almost 2000 livestock farmers with cattle, pigs, sheep or goats. Associations between responses and factors related to herd type and demography were investigated using multivariable regression models. Results showed a strong general agreement among farmers that disease prevention is important. However, results also showed differing opinions among farmers. For example, female farmers indicated higher levels of perceived knowledge of disease spread and a stronger belief that they can prevent disease introduction. Results indicate that farmers who believe they have the necessary knowledge, have stronger sense of control and also demand that others take responsibility to prevent spread. Furthermore, dairy farmers were more likely to respond that repeated exposure to infections could be beneficial for animal health. The number of perceived disease outbreaks was also higher among these farmers. Regarding government issued compensation to farmers in case of outbreaks, a wide range of opinions were recorded. Responses confirm that the farm veterinarian is an important source of disease information and several different communication channels are needed to reach farmers. In conclusion, our results show that factors such as gender, education level and age influence how prevention and occurrence of disease outbreaks are perceived and best communicated. We suggest that efforts are made to increase knowledge about disease prevention among farmers and veterinary practitioners and that farm veterinarians should be encouraged to motivate farmers to strengthen farm biosecurity.

Patterns of between-farm contacts via professionals in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Infectious diseases of livestock have negative consequences for animal production as well as animal health and welfare and can be transmitted between farms via direct (live animal movements) as well as indirect (via physical vectors such as, people, transport vehicles and fomites) contacts. The objective of the study was to examine the travel patterns of professionals visiting Swedish farms (veterinarians, milk tanker drivers, artificial inseminators, maintenance technicians and livestock hauliers). This was done by obtaining records of the farms visited by a sample of professionals in the above categories in one week in January, one week in April, one week in July and one week in October in the Swedish counties Västerbotten, Södermanland, Västergötland and Skåne. RESULTS: There were twelve participating organisations, and data was provided for one to three individuals/vehicles/veterinary practices per professional category and per geographic region (except for dairy service technicians and livestock hauliers who did not provide data from all regions). There was a trend towards larger areas covered and smaller number of farms visited per week in the north, but exceptions occurred and there were regional variations. Generally, the greatest areas were travelled by milk tankers and livestock hauliers, and the profession travelling over the smallest areas tended to be the veterinarians. Milk tankers visited most farms per week, one milk tanker could visit between 23 and 90 farms per week and travel over areas between 717 km² and 23,512 km² per week. CONCLUSIONS: Valuable insight into the travel patterns of Swedish professionals has emerged although the implications of the study largely concern highly infectious diseases. Movement of live animals pose the greatest risk for the spread of infectious animal diseases; however indirect contacts are important for many diseases. The results of this study indicate that in Sweden a highly contagious disease might spread over a large area in the time span of one incubation period, which ought to be kept in mind in case of an outbreak and in outbreak investigations. The difficulties in contacting some professionals visiting farms could be a problem in an outbreak situation.

A novel method to identify herds with an increased probability of disease introduction due to animal trade.

In the design of surveillance, there is often a desire to target high risk herds. Such risk-based approaches result in better allocation of resources and improve the performance of surveillance activities. For many contagious animal diseases, movement of live animals is a main route of transmission, and because of this, herds that purchase many live animals or have a large contact network due to trade can be seen as a high risk stratum of the population. This paper presents a new method to assess herd disease risk in animal movement networks. It is an improvement to current network measures that takes direction, temporal order, and also movement size and probability of disease into account. In the study, the method was used to calculate a probability of disease ratio (PDR) of herds in simulated datasets, and of real herds based on animal movement data from dairy herds included in a bulk milk survey for Coxiella burnetii. Known differences in probability of disease are easily incorporated in the calculations and the PDR was calculated while accounting for regional differences in probability of disease, and also by applying equal probability of disease throughout the population. Each herd's increased probability of disease due to purchase of animals was compared to both the average herd and herds within the same risk stratum. The results show that the PDR is able to capture the different circumstances related to disease prevalence and animal trade contact patterns. Comparison of results based on inclusion or exclusion of differences in risk also highlights how ignoring such differences can influence the ability to correctly identify high risk herds. The method shows a potential to be useful for risk-based surveillance, in the classification of herds in control programmes or to represent influential contacts in risk factor studies.

On-farm biosecurity as perceived by professionals visiting Swedish farms.

BACKGROUND: On-farm biosecurity is an important part of disease prevention and control, this applies to live animal contacts as well as indirect contacts e.g. via professionals visiting farms in their work. The objectives of this study were to investigate how professionals visiting animal farms in Sweden in their daily work perceive the on-farm conditions for biosecurity, the factors that influence their own biosecurity routines and what they describe as obstacles for biosecurity. Suggestions for improvements were also asked for. Questionnaires were distributed to professionals visiting farms in their daily work; veterinarians, livestock hauliers, artificial insemination technicians, animal welfare inspectors and cattle hoof trimmers. The sample was a convenience sample, based on accessibility to registers or collaboration with organisations distributing the questionnaire. Respondents were asked about the availability of certain biosecurity conditions related to farm visits, e.g. if facilities for hand washing were available, how important different factors were for their own routines and, through open ended questions, to describe obstacles and suggestions for improvement. RESULTS: After data cleaning, there were responses from 368 persons. There was a difference in the proportion of visited farms reported to have certain biosecurity measures in place related to animal species present on the farm. In general, visited pig farms had a higher proportion of biosecurity measures in place, whereas the conditions were poorer on sheep and goat farms and horse farms. There were also differences between the visitor categories; the perceived conditions for biosecurity varied between the groups, e.g. livestock hauliers did not have access to hand washing facilities as often as veterinarians did. In all groups, a majority of the respondents perceived obstacles for on-farm biosecurity, among veterinarians 66% perceived that there were obstacles. Many of the reported obstacles related to the very basics of biosecurity, such as access to soap and water. Responsibility was identified to be a key issue; while some farmers expect visitors to take responsibility for keeping up biosecurity they do not provide the adequate on-farm conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Many of the respondents reported obstacles for keeping good biosecurity related to on-farm conditions. There was a gap when it came to responsibility which needs to be clarified. Visitors need to take responsibility for avoiding spread of disease, while farmers need to assume responsibility for providing adequate conditions for on-farm biosecurity.

EpiContactTrace: an R-package for contact tracing during livestock disease outbreaks and for risk-based surveillance.

BACKGROUND: During outbreak of livestock diseases, contact tracing can be an important part of disease control. Animal movements can also be of relevance for risk-based surveillance and sampling, i.e. both when assessing consequences of introduction or likelihood of introduction. In many countries, animal movement data are collected with one of the major objectives to enable contact tracing. However, often an analytical step is needed to retrieve appropriate information for contact tracing or surveillance. RESULTS: In this study, an open source tool was developed to structure livestock movement data to facilitate contact-tracing in real time during disease outbreaks and for input in risk-based surveillance and sampling. The tool, EpiContactTrace, was written in the R-language and uses the network parameters in-degree, out-degree, ingoing contact chain and outgoing contact chain (also called infection chain), which are relevant for forward and backward tracing respectively. The time-frames for backward and forward tracing can be specified independently and search can be done on one farm at a time or for all farms within the dataset. Different outputs are available; datasets with network measures, contacts visualised in a map and automatically generated reports for each farm either in HTML or PDF-format intended for the end-users, i.e. the veterinary authorities, regional disease control officers and field-veterinarians. EpiContactTrace is available as an R-package at the R-project website (http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/EpiContactTrace/). CONCLUSIONS: We believe this tool can help in disease control since it rapidly can structure essential contact information from large datasets. The reproducible reports make this tool robust and independent of manual compilation of data. The open source makes it accessible and easily adaptable for different needs.

A survey of visitors on Swedish livestock farms with reference to the spread of animal diseases.

BACKGROUND: In addition to livestock movements, other between-farm contacts such as visitors may contribute to the spread of contagious animal diseases. Knowledge about such contacts is essential for contingency planning. Preventive measures, risk-based surveillance and contact tracing may be facilitated if the frequency and type of between-farm contacts can be assessed for different types of farms. The aim of this study was to investigate the frequency and types of visitors on farms with cloven-hoofed animals in Sweden and to analyse whether there were differences in the number of visitors attributable to region, season, and type of herd. Data were collected from Swedish farmers through contact-logs covering two-week periods during four different seasons. RESULTS: In total, 482 (32%) farmers filled in the contact log for at least one period and the data represent 18,416 days. The average number of professional and non-professional visitors per day was 0.3 and 0.8, respectively. Whereas the number of professional visitors seemed to increase with increasing herd size, this relation was not seen for non-professional visits. The mean numbers of visitors per day were highest in the summer and in the farm category 'small mixed farm'. Reports of the visitors' degree of contact with the animals showed that veterinarians, AI-technicians, animal transporters and neighbours were often in direct contact with the animals or entered the stables and 8.8% of the repairmen were also in direct contact with animals, which was unexpected. In a multivariable analysis, species, herd size and season were significantly associated with the number of professional visitors as well as the number of visitors in direct contact with the animals. CONCLUSION: In conclusion there was a large variation between farms in the number and type of contacts. The number of visitors that may be more likely to spread diseases between farms was associated with animal species and herd size.

Application of network analysis parameters in risk-based surveillance - examples based on cattle trade data and bovine infections in Sweden.

Financial resources may limit the number of samples that can be collected and analysed in disease surveillance programmes. When the aim of surveillance is disease detection and identification of case herds, a risk-based approach can increase the sensitivity of the surveillance system. In this paper, the association between two network analysis measures, i.e. 'in-degree' and 'ingoing infection chain', and signs of infection is investigated. It is shown that based on regression analysis of combined data from a recent cross-sectional study for endemic viral infections and network analysis of animal movements, a positive serological result for bovine coronavirus (BCV) and bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) is significantly associated with the purchase of animals. For BCV, this association was significant also when accounting for herd size and regional cattle density, but not for BRSV. Examples are given for different approaches to include cattle movement data in risk-based surveillance by selecting herds based on network analysis measures. Results show that compared to completely random sampling these approaches increase the number of detected positives, both for BCV and BRSV in our study population. It is concluded that network measures for the relevant time period based on updated databases of animal movements can provide a simple and straight forward tool for risk-based sampling.

Network analysis of cattle and pig movements in Sweden: measures relevant for disease control and risk based surveillance.

Registration of cattle and pig movements is mandatory in Sweden and all registered movements between farms in the years 2006-2008 were investigated using network analysis. The networks were analysed as monthly and yearly networks, separately per species and with the two species together. Measures that have been previously discussed in relation to outbreaks and disease control were calculated; moreover a measure of the ingoing infection chain was constructed. The ingoing infection chain captures ingoing contacts through other holdings, taking the temporal aspect and sequence of the movements into account. The distribution of the contacts among the holdings was skewed. Many farms had few or no contacts, while others had many, a pattern which has also been described from other countries. The cattle network and the combined network showed a recurring seasonal pattern, while this was not seen in the pig network. The in-degree was not equivalent to the ingoing infection chain; there were holdings with limited direct contacts, but a large number of indirect contacts. The ingoing infection chain could be a useful measure when setting up strategies for disease control and for risk based surveillance as it identifies holdings with many contacts through live animal movements and thus at potentially higher risk for introduction of contagious diseases.

The prevalence of atypical scrapie in sheep from positive flocks is not higher than in the general sheep population in 11 European countries.

BACKGROUND: During the last decade, active surveillance for transmissible spongiform encephalopathies in small ruminants has been intensive in Europe. In many countries this has led to the detection of cases of atypical scrapie which, unlike classical scrapie, might not be contagious. EU legislation requires, that following detection of a scrapie case, control measures including further testing take place in affected flocks, including the culling of genotype susceptible to classical scrapie. This might result in the detection of additional cases. The aim of this study was to investigate the occurrence of additional cases in flocks affected by atypical scrapie using surveillance data collected in Europe in order to ascertain whether atypical scrapie, is contagious. RESULTS: Questionnaires were used to collect, at national level, the results of active surveillance and testing associated with flock outbreaks in 12 European countries. The mean prevalence of atypical scrapie was 5.5 (5.0-6.0) cases per ten thousand in abattoir surveillance and 8.1 (7.3-9.0) cases per ten thousand in fallen stock. By using meta-analysis, on 11 out of the 12 countries, we found that the probability of detecting additional cases of atypical scrapie in positive flocks was similar to the probability observed in animals slaughtered for human consumption (odds ratio, OR = 1.07, CI95%: 0.70-1.63) or among fallen stock (OR = 0.78, CI95%: 0.51-1.2). In contrast, when comparing the two scrapie types, the probability of detecting additional cases in classical scrapie positive flocks was significantly higher than the probability of detecting additional cases in atypical scrapie positive flocks (OR = 32.4, CI95%: 20.7-50.7). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that atypical scrapie is not contagious or has a very low transmissibility under natural conditions compared with classical scrapie. Furthermore this study stressed the importance of standardised data collection to make good use of the analyses undertaken by European countries in their efforts to control atypical and classical scrapie.

Spatial and temporal investigations of reported movements, births and deaths of cattle and pigs in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Livestock movements can affect the spread and control of contagious diseases and new data recording systems enable analysis of these movements. The results can be used for contingency planning, modelling of disease spread and design of disease control programs. METHODS: Data on the Swedish cattle and pig populations during the period July 2005 until June 2006 were obtained from databases held by the Swedish Board of Agriculture. Movements of cattle and pigs were investigated from geographical and temporal perspectives, births and deaths of cattle were investigated from a temporal perspective and the geographical distribution of holdings was also investigated. RESULTS: Most movements of cattle and pigs were to holdings within 100 km, but movements up to 1200 km occurred. Consequently, the majority of movements occurred within the same county or to adjacent counties. Approximately 54% of the cattle holdings and 45% of the pig holdings did not purchase any live animals. Seasonal variations in births and deaths of cattle were identified, with peaks in spring. Cattle movements peaked in spring and autumn. The maximum number of holdings within a 3 km radius of one holding was 45 for cattle and 23 for pigs, with large variations among counties. Missing data and reporting bias (digit preference) were detected in the data. CONCLUSION: The databases are valuable tools in contact tracing. However since movements can be reported up to a week after the event and some data are missing they cannot replace other methods in the acute phase of an outbreak. We identified long distance transports of cattle and pigs, and these findings support an implementation of a total standstill in the country in the case of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. The databases contain valuable information and improvements in data quality would make them even more useful.

Estimation of distance related probability of animal movements between holdings and implications for disease spread modeling.

Between holding contacts are more common over short distances and this may have implications for the dynamics of disease spread through these contacts. A reliable estimation of how contacts depend on distance is therefore important when modeling livestock diseases. In this study, we have developed a method for analyzing distant dependent contacts and applied it to animal movement data from Sweden. The data were analyzed with two competing models. The first model assumes that contacts arise from a purely distance dependent process. The second is a mixture model and assumes that, in addition, some contacts arise independent of distance. Parameters were estimated with a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach and the model probabilities were compared. We also investigated possible between model differences in predicted contact structures, using a collection of network measures. We found that the mixture model was a much better model for the data analyzed. Also, the network measures showed that the models differed considerably in predictions of contact structures, which is expected to be important for disease spread dynamics. We conclude that a model with contacts being both dependent on, and independent of, distance was preferred for modeling the example animal movement contact data.