Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in Africa, Europe, and Asia (2005-2022): Multiple Change Point Analysis and Time Series Forecast.

LSD is an important transboundary disease affecting the cattle industry worldwide. The objectives of this study were to determine trends and significant change points, and to forecast the number of LSD outbreak reports in Africa, Europe, and Asia. LSD outbreak report data (January 2005 to January 2022) from the World Organization for Animal Health were analyzed. We determined statistically significant change points in the data using binary segmentation, and forecast the number of LSD reports using auto-regressive moving average (ARIMA) and neural network auto-regressive (NNAR) models. Four significant change points were identified for each continent. The year between the third and fourth change points (2016-2019) in the African data was the period with the highest mean of number of LSD reports. All change points of LSD outbreaks in Europe corresponded with massive outbreaks during 2015-2017. Asia had the highest number of LSD reports in 2019 after the third detected change point in 2018. For the next three years (2022-2024), both ARIMA and NNAR forecast a rise in the number of LSD reports in Africa and a steady number in Europe. However, ARIMA predicts a stable number of outbreaks in Asia, whereas NNAR predicts an increase in 2023-2024. This study provides information that contributes to a better understanding of the epidemiology of LSD.

Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli from pork in Muang district, Chiang Mai Province, Thailand.

Background and Aim: Contaminated pork is one of the transmission routes for pathogens. Extended-spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBL)-producing Escherichia coli is one of the critical threats to global public health. This study aimed to examine pork from different types of markets in Muang district, Chiangmai Province, Thailand, for a proportion of ESBL-producing E. coli, antibiotic resistance of ESBL-producing E. coli and ESBL-producing E. coli genotypes. Materials and Methods: Samples were collected from different market types; fresh markets, pork stores, and supermarkets, enriched and inoculated on selective media. Extended-spectrum beta-lactamases-producing E. coli was identified using double-disk diffusion method according to Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute 2016. Antibiotic susceptibility test was performed through VITEK® System and ESBL-encoding genes were detected using a multiplex polymerase chain reaction. Results: About 69% of the samples were positive to ESBL-producing E. coli and showed high rates of resistance for ampicillin (100%), piperacillin (100%), cefalexin (100%), cefpodoxime (100%), cefovecin (100%) and ceftiofur (100%), gentamycin (89.86%), and tetracycline (TE) (84.06%). All isolates were multiple drug resistant; resistance patterns of beta-lactams, aminoglycosides, TEs, nitrobenzene derivatives, and sulfonamide groups were observed. The ESBL-producing E. coli-positive isolates carried blaCTX-M groups (100%), blaTEM (98.55%), and blaSHV (1.45%). None of blaOXA was found in this study. Conclusion: Extended-spectrum beta-lactamases-producing E. coli was found in various types of markets; all isolates were detected as multidrug-resistant. The dissemination of such strains can conceivably cause concerning public health, implying that supervised antimicrobial use in pork production and sanitary food preparation is recommended.

Seroprevalence of the viral pig diseases among backyard pigs in Chiang Mai, Thailand.

The Participatory One-Health Disease Detection project (PODD) (www.cmonehealth.org) developed a health-based surveillance system with the local government of Chiang Mai community ownership that has been created a mobile application on smartphone for reporting an abnormal event, especially animal health. Previously, the PODD project has obtained a significant number of pig abnormal events. Therefore, there are likely to be some diseases that are currently circulating among backyard pigs. A cross-sectional serological study was undertaken to determine the risk factors for virus infection and prevalence of antibodies against the classical swine fever virus (CSFV), porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV), porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) and influenza A virus (IAV) among backyard pigs in Chiang Mai, Thailand. Antibodies against the CSFV, PRRSV and PCV2 in backyard pigs were shown in swine level to be 14 % (95 % CI: 9-20), 14 % (95 % CI: 10-19), and 15 % (95 % CI: 8-23), respectively. For the household level, antibodies against the CSFV, PRRSV and PCV2 were found to be 23 % (95 % CI: 13-37), 22 % (95 % CI: 14-23), and 48 % (95 % CI: 32-63), respectively, while antibodies against IAV were shown to be absent. The use of artificial insemination for breeding purposes has been considered to be a significant risk factor associated with PRRSV (OR = 21.08, 95 % CI: 1.92-232.02) and CSFV (OR = 7.7, 95 % CI: 1.49-39.90) infections. Meanwhile, a risk factor for PCV2 infection was found to significantly involve the feeding of pigs with commercial feed (OR = 9.64, 95 % CI: 1.85-50.26). The findings of this study indicate that infections with CSFV, PRRSV, and PCV2 remain a significant concern and may have an impact on the growth performance of the backyard pigs. The lack of antibodies against the influenza A virus has indicated a low degree of interspecies transmission of influenza A among backyard pigs in Chiang Mai, Thailand. Effective control measures need to be prepared and implemented, and these should include the strict regulation of pig imports as a free source of the viruses along with effective animal quarantine, policies, and appropriate vaccination programs.

Effectiveness of a Nanohydroxyapatite-Based Hydrogel on Alveolar Bone Regeneration in Post-Extraction Sockets of Dogs with Naturally Occurring Periodontitis.

Pathological mandibular fracture after dental extraction usually occurs in dogs with moderate to severe periodontitis. A nanohydroxyapatite-based hydrogel (HAP hydrogel) was developed to diminish the limitations of hydroxyapatite for post-extraction socket preservation (PSP). However, the effect of the HAP hydrogel in dogs has still not been widely investigated. Moreover, there are few studies on PSP in dogs suffering from clinical periodontitis. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the HAP hydrogel for PSP in dogs with periodontitis. In five dogs with periodontitis, the first molar (309 and 409) of each hemimandible was extracted. Consequently, all the ten sockets were filled with HAP-hydrogel. Intraoral radiography was performed on the day of operation and 2, 4, 8 and 12 weeks post operation. The Kruskal-Wallis test and paired t-test were adopted for alveolar bone regeneration analysis. The results demonstrated that the radiographic grading, bone height measurement, and bone regeneration analysis were positively significant at all follow-up times compared to the day of operation. Moreover, the scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy imaging after immersion showed a homogeneous distribution of apatite formation on the hydrogel surface. Our investigation suggested that the HAP hydrogel effectively enhances socket regeneration in dogs with periodontitis and can be applied as a bone substitute for PSP in veterinary dentistry.

Evaluation of strategies using simulation model to control a potential outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza among poultry farms in Central Luzon, Philippines.

The Philippines confirmed its first epidemic of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) on August 11, 2017. It ended in November of 2017. Despite the successful management of the epidemic, reemergence is a continuous threat. The aim of this study was to conduct a mathematical model to assess the spatial transmission of HPAI among poultry farms in Central Luzon. Different control strategies and the current government protocol of 1 km radius pre-emptive culling (PEC) from infected farms were evaluated. The alternative strategies include 0.5km PEC, 1.5km PEC, 2 km PEC, 2.5 km PEC, and 3 km PEC, no pre-emptive culling (NPEC). The NPEC scenario was further modeled with a time of government notification set at 24hours, 48 hours, and 72 hours after the detection. Disease spread scenarios under each strategy were generated using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) stochastic model. A spatial transmission kernel was calculated and used to represent all potential routes of infection between farms. We assumed that the latent period occurs between 1-2 days, disease detection at 5-7 days post-infection, notification of authorities at 5-7 days post-detection and start of culling at 1-3 days post notification. The epidemic scenarios were compared based on the number of infected farms, the total number of culled farms, and the duration of the epidemic. Our results revealed that the current protocol is the most appropriate option compared with the other alternative interventions considered among farms with reproductive ratio (Ri) > 1. Shortening the culling radius to 0.5 km increased the duration of the epidemic. Further increase in the PEC zone decreased the duration of the epidemic but may not justify the increased number of farms to be culled. Nonetheless, the no-pre-emptive culling (NPEC) strategy can be an effective alternative to the current protocol if farm managers inform the government immediately within 24 hours of observation of the presence of HPAI in their farms. Moreover, if notification is made on days 1-3 after the detection, the scale and length of the outbreak have been significantly reduced. In conclusion, this study provided a comparison of various control measures for confronting the spread of HPAI infection using the simulation model. Policy makers can use this information to enhance the effectiveness of the current control strategy.

Identification of High-Risk Areas for the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Central Luzon, Philippines.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) is a major problem in the poultry industry. It is highly contagious and is associated with a high mortality rate. The Philippines experienced an outbreak of avian influenza (AI) in 2017. As there is always a risk of re-emergence, efforts to manage disease outbreaks should be optimal. Linked to this is the need for an effective surveillance procedure to capture disease outbreaks at their early stage. Risk-based surveillance is the most effective and economical approach to outbreak management. This study evaluated the potential of commercial poultry farms in Central Luzon to transmit HPAI by calculating their respective reproductive ratios (R0). The reproductive number for each farm is based on the spatial kernel and the infectious period. A risk map has been created based on the calculated R0. There were 882 (76.63%) farms with R0 < 1. Farms with R0 ≥ 1 were all located in Pampanga Province. These farms were concentrated in the towns of San Luis (n = 12) and Candaba (n = 257). This study demonstrates the utility of mapping farm-level R0 estimates for informing HPAI risk management activities.

Spatiotemporal analyses of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in cattle farms in Chiang Mai and Lamphun, Thailand.

BACKGROUND: Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious and contagious febrile vesicular disease of cloven-hoofed livestock with high socio-economic consequences globally. In Thailand, FMD is endemic with 183 and 262 outbreaks occurring in the years 2015 and 2016, respectively. In this study, we aimed to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of FMD outbreaks among cattle in Chiang Mai and Lamphun provinces in the northern part of Thailand during the period of 2015-2016. A retrospective space-time scan statistic including a space-time permutation (STP) and the Poisson and Bernoulli models were applied in order to detect areas of high incidence of FMD. RESULTS: Results have shown that 9 and 8 clusters were identified by the STP model in 2015 and 2016, respectively, whereas 1 and 3 clusters were identified by the Poisson model, and 3 and 4 clusters were detected when the Bernoulli model was applied for the same time period. In 2015, the most likely clusters were observed in Chiang Mai and these had a minimum radius of 1.49 km and a maximum radius of 20 km. Outbreaks were clustered in the period between the months of May and October of 2015. The most likely clusters in 2016 were observed in central Lamphun based on the STP model and in the eastern area of Chiang Mai by the Poisson and Bernoulli models. The cluster size of the STP model (8.51 km) was smaller than those of the Poisson and Bernoulli models (> 20 km). The cluster periods in 2016 were approximately 7 months, while 4 months and 1 month were identified by the Poisson, Bernoulli and STP models respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The application of three models provided more information for FMD outbreak epidemiology. The findings from this study suggest the use of three different space-time scan models for the investigation process of outbreaks along with the follow-up process to identify FMD outbreak clusters. Therefore, active prevention and control strategies should be implemented in the areas that are most susceptible to FMD outbreaks.

Evidence of high EEHV antibody seroprevalence and spatial variation among captive Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in Thailand.

BACKGROUND: Elephant endotheliotropic herpesviruses (EEHV) can cause an acute highly fatal hemorrhagic disease in young Asian elephants (Elephas maximus), both ex situ and in situ. Amongst eight EEHV types described so far, type 1 (subtype 1A and 1B) is the predominant disease-associated type. Little is known about routes of infection and pathogenesis of EEHV, and knowledge of disease prevalence, especially in range countries, is limited. METHODS: A large cross-sectional serological survey was conducted in captive elephants (n = 994) throughout Thailand using an EEHV-1A glycoprotein B protein antigen specific antibody ELISA. RESULTS: Antibody seroprevalence was 42.3%, with 420 of 994 elephants testing positive. Associations between seropositivity and potential risk factors for EEHV infection were assessed and included: elephant age, sex, camp cluster size, management type (extensive versus intensive), sampling period (wet vs. dry season) and location of camp (region). Univariable regression analysis identified management system and region as risk factors for the presence of EEHV antibodies in elephants, with region being significant in the final multivariable regression model. Prevalence was highest in the North region of the country (49.4%). CONCLUSIONS: This study produced baseline serological data for captive elephants throughout Thailand, and showed a significant EEHV burden likely to be maintained in the captive population.

Inhibitory Effects and Killing Kinetics of Lactic Acid Rice Gel Against Pathogenic Bacteria Causing Bovine Mastitis.

Staphylococcus aureus and S. epidermidis are the major teat skin bacteria and lead to severe bovine mastitis. Teat antiseptic is an important tool for controlling intramammary infection. The antibacterial activity of lactic acid (LA) against one reference strain of S. aureus ATCC 25923 and two field strains including S. aureus and S. epidermidis was investigated using the broth microdilution method. Its minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) and minimum bactericidal concentration (MBC) were 0.5% for strains belonging to both species. An antiseptic preparation containing 5% LA with modified rice gel (LA-RG) was successfully prepared. Rheological behavior of LA-RG was found to be a pseudoplastic flow with thixotropy with viscosity of approximately 0.007 Pas. LA-RG exhibited a sufficient adhesive property in the rolling ball test with a length of 9.67 ± 0.04 cm. Killing kinetic studies of LA-RG showed that the killing rate of LA-RG was significantly faster than that of LA. After 32 min of exposure to LA-RG, approximately 86% and 60% of S. aureus and S. epidermidis were reduced, respectively. Abnormal bacterial cell surface after exposure to LA-RG was observed by scanning electron microscopy. It is concluded that LA-RG is a promising preparation as an alternative product for preventing mastitis in dairy cattle.