[The rules for predicting remission in patients with Cushing disease after successful endoscopic transnasal adenomectomy].

BACKGROUND: The recurrence rate after successful transnasal adenomectomy in Cushing’s disease (CD) can reach 47%. We have previously shown that patients with ACTH levels less than 7 pg/ml recurred over 3 years 4.5 times less often than patients with higher levels of ACTH, patients with cortisol levels below 123 nmol/l — in 3.4 times less than at higher values of this hormone, however, these indicators are dissociated in 41% of cases, so it is not possible use them for prediction separately. AIM: To develop a method for managing patients after successful transnasal adenomectomy depending on prognosis. METHODS: A monocenter retrospective comparative study included 349 patients (52 men, 297 women) with a confirmed diagnosis of CD, who underwent effective endoscopic transsphenoidal adenomectomy in 2007−2014. Various combinations of postoperative morning levels of ACTH and cortisol were analyzed. RESULTS: Based on the developed forecasting methods and their best characteristics, the following rules were formulated. If postoperative morning ACTH is less than 7 pg/ml and/or postoperative morning cortisol is less than 123 nmol/l, then the patient will remain in remission for 1 year with probability of 99% (95% CI 97%–100%) and for 3 years with probability of 86% (95% CI 80%–91%). CONCLUSION: The rules for predicting remission for 1 and 3 years for patients after neurosurgical treatment for CD are proposed. These rules are based on combinations of ACTH and cortisol levels.

Prediction of recurrence and remission within 3 years in patients with Cushing disease after successful transnasal adenomectomy.

BACKGROUND: Some laboratory and clinical features are associated with a probability of recurrence after transnasal adenomectomy for Cushing disease (CD). However, there is no consensus on a set of predictors. Rules for prediction of recurrence were not proposed earlier. AIM: To develop prediction model of recurrence/remission after successful neurosurgical treatment for CD. METHODS: Retrospective single-site comparative study included 349 patients (52 men and 297 women) with a verified diagnosis of CD who underwent effective endoscopic transsphenoidal adenomectomy between 2007 and 2014. Clinical and laboratory parameters were evaluated. Laboratory tests were performed using immunochemiluminescent method. Time-to-event analysis and ROC-analysis were applied. Multivariate models were developed using logistic regression and artificial neural network (ANN). RESULTS: Postoperative cortisol and ACTH levels and their combinations cannot be used for prediction of recurrence. ANN for prediction of recurrence within 3 years after successful surgery was developed. Input variables are age, duration of the disease, MRI data on adenoma, morning postoperative levels of ACTH and cortisol, output variable is binary (recurrence/remission). Predictive value for remission is 93%, 95% CI [89%; 96%], and predictive value for recurrence is 85%, 95% CI [71%; 94%]. Web-calculator based on the model is developed and free for use. CONCLUSION: Effective method for prediction of recurrence and long-term remission within 3 years after successful endoscopic transsphenoidal adenomectomy is proposed.