Data error propagation in stacked bioclimatic envelope models.

Stacking is the process of overlaying inferred species potential distributions for multiple species based on outputs of bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs). The approach can be used to investigate patterns and processes of species richness. If data limitations on individual species distributions are inevitable, but how do they affect inferences of patterns and processes of species richness? We investigate the influence of different data sources on estimated species richness gradients in China. We fitted BEMs using species distributions data for 334 bird species obtained from (1) global range maps, (2) regional checklists, (3) museum records and surveys, and (4) citizen science data using presence-only (Mahalanobis distance), presence-background (MAXENT), and presence-absence (GAM and BRT) BEMs. Individual species predictions were stacked to generate species richness gradients. Here, we show that different data sources and BEMs can generate spatially varying gradients of species richness. The environmental predictors that best explained species distributions also differed between data sources. Models using citizen-based data had the highest accuracy, whereas those using range data had the lowest accuracy. Potential richness patterns estimated by GAM and BRT models were robust to data uncertainty. When multiple data sets exist for the same region and taxa, we advise that explicit treatments of uncertainty, such as sensitivity analyses of the input data, should be conducted during the process of modeling.

Potential for invasion of traded birds under climate and land-cover change.

Humans have moved species away from their native ranges since the Neolithic, but globalization accelerated the rate at which species are being moved. We fitted more than half million distribution models for 610 traded bird species on the CITES list to examine the separate and joint effects of global climate and land-cover change on their potential end-of-century distributions. We found that climate-induced suitability for modelled invasive species increases with latitude, because traded birds are mainly of tropical origin and much of the temperate region is 'tropicalizing.' Conversely, the tropics are becoming more arid, thus limiting the potential from cross-continental invasion by tropical species. This trend is compounded by forest loss around the tropics since most traded birds are forest dwellers. In contrast, net gains in forest area across the temperate region could compound climate change effects and increase the potential for colonization of low-latitude birds. Climate change has always led to regional redistributions of species, but the combination of human transportation, climate, and land-cover changes will likely accelerate the redistribution of species globally, increasing chances of alien species successfully invading non-native lands. Such process of biodiversity homogenization can lead to emergence of non-analogue communities with unknown environmental and socioeconomic consequences.

Dispersal abilities favor commensalism in animal-plant interactions under climate change.

Scientists still poorly understand how biotic interactions and dispersal limitation jointly interact and affect the ability of species to track suitable habitats under climate change. Here, we examine how animal-plant interactions and dispersal limitations might affect the responses of Brazil nut-dependent frogs facing projected climate change. Using ecological niche modelling and dispersal simulations, we forecast the future distributions of the Brazil nut tree and three commensalist frog species over time (2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090) in the regional rivalry (SSP370) scenario that includes great challenges to mitigation and adaptation. With the exception of one species, projections point to a decrease in suitable habitats of up to 40.6%. For frog species with potential reductions of co-occurrence areas, this is expected to reduce up to 23.8% of suitable areas for binomial animal-plant relationships. Even so, biotic interactions should not be lost over time. Species will depend on their own dispersal abilities to reach analogous climates in the future for maintaining ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa. However, ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa should be maintained in accordance with their own dispersal ability. When dispersal limitation is included in the models, the suitable range of all three frog species is reduced considerably by the end of the century. This highlights the importance of dispersal limitation inclusion for forecasting future distribution ranges when biotic interactions matter.

Response of an Afro-Palearctic bird migrant to glaciation cycles.

Migration allows animals to exploit spatially separated and seasonally available resources at a continental to global scale. However, responding to global climatic changes might prove challenging, especially for long-distance intercontinental migrants. During glacial periods, when conditions became too harsh for breeding in the north, avian migrants have been hypothesized to retract their distribution to reside within small refugial areas. Here, we present data showing that an Afro-Palearctic migrant continued seasonal migration, largely within Africa, during previous glacial-interglacial cycles with no obvious impact on population size. Using individual migratory track data to hindcast monthly bioclimatic habitat availability maps through the last 120,000 y, we show altered seasonal use of suitable areas through time. Independently derived effective population sizes indicate a growing population through the last 40,000 y. We conclude that the migratory lifestyle enabled adaptation to shifting climate conditions. This indicates that populations of resource-tracking, long-distance migratory species could expand successfully during warming periods in the past, which could also be the case under future climate scenarios.

rasterdiv-An Information Theory tailored R package for measuring ecosystem heterogeneity from space: To the origin and back.

Ecosystem heterogeneity has been widely recognized as a key ecological indicator of several ecological functions, diversity patterns and change, metapopulation dynamics, population connectivity or gene flow.In this paper, we present a new R package-rasterdiv-to calculate heterogeneity indices based on remotely sensed data. We also provide an ecological application at the landscape scale and demonstrate its power in revealing potentially hidden heterogeneity patterns.The rasterdiv package allows calculating multiple indices, robustly rooted in Information Theory, and based on reproducible open-source algorithms.

Improvements in reports of species redistribution under climate change are required.

Studies have documented climate change-induced shifts in species distributions but uncertainties associated with data and methods are typically unexplored. We reviewed 240 reports of climate-related species-range shifts and classified them based on three criteria. We ask whether observed distributional shifts are compared against random expectations, whether multicausal factors are examined on equal footing, and whether studies provide sufficient documentation to enable replication. We found that only ~12.1% of studies compare distributional shifts across multiple directions, ~1.6% distinguish observed patterns from random expectations, and ~19.66% examine multicausal factors. Last, ~75.5% of studies report sufficient data and results to allow replication. We show that despite gradual improvements over time, there is scope for raising standards in data and methods within reports of climate-change induced shifts in species distribution. Accurate reporting is important because policy responses depend on them. Flawed assessments can fuel criticism and divert scarce resources for biodiversity to competing priorities.

Toward community predictions: Multi-scale modelling of mountain breeding birds' habitat suitability, landscape preferences, and environmental drivers.

Across a large mountain area of the western Swiss Alps, we used occurrence data (presence-only points) of bird species to find suitable modelling solutions and build reliable distribution maps to deal with biodiversity and conservation necessities of bird species at finer scales. We have performed a multi-scale method of modelling, which uses distance, climatic, and focal variables at different scales (neighboring window sizes), to estimate the efficient scale of each environmental predictor and enhance our knowledge on how birds interact with their complex environment. To identify the best radius for each focal variable and the most efficient impact scale of each predictor, we have fitted univariate models per species. In the last step, the final set of variables were subsequently employed to build ensemble of small models (ESMs) at a fine spatial resolution of 100 m and generate species distribution maps as tools of conservation. We could build useful habitat suitability models for the three groups of species in the national red list. Our results indicate that, in general, the most important variables were in the group of bioclimatic variables including "Bio11" (Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter), and "Bio 4" (Temperature Seasonality), then in the focal variables including "Forest", "Orchard", and "Agriculture area" as potential foraging, feeding and nesting sites. Our distribution maps are useful for identifying the most threatened species and their habitat and also for improving conservation effort to locate bird hotspots. It is a powerful strategy to improve the ecological understanding of the distribution of bird species in a dynamic heterogeneous environment.

Land surface black-sky albedo at a fixed solar zenith angle and its relation to forest structure during peak growing season based on remote sensing data.

Satellite data provide the opportunity to explore different land surface properties, such as albedo (reflectivity) and forest structure, for multidisciplinary purposes. We estimated land surface black-sky albedo at shortwave, near-infrared and visible spectral regions at a fixed solar zenith angle (i.e., 38∘) during peak growing season in 2005 on a global scale. In addition, we estimated the links between albedo and forest structure variables including forest density [the number of trees/km2], tree cover [percent], and leaf area index [m2/m2] over pure forest pixels during peak growing season in 2005 on a global scale. We acquired and processed remotely sensed variables from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat satellite images. This article provides 1) dataset of black-sky albedo at fixed solar zenith angle at a 1-km spatial resolution, 2) comparison between black-sky albedos at fixed solar zenith angle and local noon at a 1-km spatial resolution that are grouped based on forest types with the classes of evergreen needleleaf, evergreen broadleaf, deciduous needleleaf, deciduous broadleaf, mixed and woody savannah forests, and also the major biome zones including boreal, mediterranean, temperate and tropical region. 3) the links between black-sky albedo at fixed solar zenith angle and forest structure using generalized additive models at a 0.5-degree spatial resolution during peak growing season in 2005. The pre-processing steps to enhance the accuracy of these datasets include: (1) identifying pure forest pixels, (2) excluding high slope pixels and those covered partially by water in the albedo product using high spatial resolution water (i.e., 30-m spatial resolution) and slope (i.e., 90-m spatial resolution) masks, and (3) using the most recent collection (collection 6) of MODIS satellite images. More details and interpretations of these datasets can be found in Alibakhshi et al. (2020) [1].

Comparison of three hybrid models to simulate land use changes: a case study in Qeshm Island, Iran.

Land use change simulation is an important issue for its role in predicting future trends and providing implications for sustainable land management. Hybrid models have become a recognized strategy to inform decision-makers, but further attempts are needed to warrant the reliability of their projected results. In view of this, three hybrid models, including the cellular automata-Markov chain-artificial neural network, cellular automata-Markov chain-logistic regression, and Markov chain-artificial neural network, were applied to simulate land use change on the largest island in Iran, Qeshm Island. The Figure of Merit (FOM) was used to measure the modeling accuracy of the simulations, with the FOMs for the three models 6.7, 5.1, and 4.5, respectively. Consequently, the cellular automata-Markov chain-artificial neural network most precisely simulates land use change on Qeshm Island and is, thus, used to simulate land use change until 2026. The simulation shows that the incremental trend of the built-up class will continue in the coming years. Meanwhile, the areas of valuable ecosystems, such as mangroves, tend to decrease. Despite the protection plans for mangroves, these areas require more attention and conservation planning. This study demonstrates a referential example to select the proper land use models for informing planning and management in similar coastal zones.

Using Accelerometer and GPS Data for Real-Life Physical Activity Type Detection.

This paper aims to examine the role of global positioning system (GPS) sensor data in real-life physical activity (PA) type detection. Thirty-three young participants wore devices including GPS and accelerometer sensors on five body positions and performed daily PAs in two protocols, namely semi-structured and real-life. One general random forest (RF) model integrating data from all sensors and five individual RF models using data from each sensor position were trained using semi-structured (Scenario 1) and combined (semi-structured + real-life) data (Scenario 2). The results showed that in general, adding GPS features (speed and elevation difference) to accelerometer data improves classification performance particularly for detecting non-level and level walking. Assessing the transferability of the models on real-life data showed that models from Scenario 2 are strongly transferable, particularly when adding GPS data to the training data. Comparing individual models indicated that knee-models provide comparable classification performance (above 80%) to general models in both scenarios. In conclusion, adding GPS data improves real-life PA type classification performance if combined data are used for training the model. Moreover, the knee-model provides the minimal device configuration with reliable accuracy for detecting real-life PA types.

Standards for distribution models in biodiversity assessments.

Demand for models in biodiversity assessments is rising, but which models are adequate for the task? We propose a set of best-practice standards and detailed guidelines enabling scoring of studies based on species distribution models for use in biodiversity assessments. We reviewed and scored 400 modeling studies over the past 20 years using the proposed standards and guidelines. We detected low model adequacy overall, but with a marked tendency of improvement over time in model building and, to a lesser degree, in biological data and model evaluation. We argue that implementation of agreed-upon standards for models in biodiversity assessments would promote transparency and repeatability, eventually leading to higher quality of the models and the inferences used in assessments. We encourage broad community participation toward the expansion and ongoing development of the proposed standards and guidelines.