How complex should models be? Comparing correlative and mechanistic range dynamics models.

Criticism has been levelled at climate-change-induced forecasts of species range shifts that do not account explicitly for complex population dynamics. The relative importance of such dynamics under climate change is, however, undetermined because direct tests comparing the performance of demographic models vs. simpler ecological niche models are still lacking owing to difficulties in evaluating forecasts using real-world data. We provide the first comparison of the skill of coupled ecological-niche-population models and ecological niche models in predicting documented shifts in the ranges of 20 British breeding bird species across a 40-year period. Forecasts from models calibrated with data centred on 1970 were evaluated using data centred on 2010. We found that more complex coupled ecological-niche-population models (that account for dispersal and metapopulation dynamics) tend to have higher predictive accuracy in forecasting species range shifts than structurally simpler models that only account for variation in climate. However, these better forecasts are achieved only if ecological responses to climate change are simulated without static snapshots of historic land use, taken at a single point in time. In contrast, including both static land use and dynamic climate variables in simpler ecological niche models improve forecasts of observed range shifts. Despite being less skilful at predicting range changes at the grid-cell level, ecological niche models do as well, or better, than more complex models at predicting the magnitude of relative change in range size. Therefore, ecological niche models can provide a reasonable first approximation of the magnitude of species' potential range shifts, especially when more detailed data are lacking on dispersal dynamics, demographic processes underpinning population performance, and change in land cover.

The role of conservative versus innovative nesting behavior on the 25-year population expansion of an avian predator.

Species ranges often change in relation to multiple environmental and demographic factors. Innovative behaviors may affect these changes by facilitating the use of novel habitats, although this idea has been little explored. Here, we investigate the importance of behavior during range change, using a 25-year population expansion of Bonelli's eagle in southern Portugal. This unique population is almost exclusively tree nesting, while all other populations in western Europe are predominantly cliff nesting. During 1991-2014, we surveyed nest sites and estimated the year when each breeding territory was established. We approximated the boundaries of 84 territories using Dirichlet tessellation and mapped topography, land cover, and the density of human infrastructures in buffers (250, 500, and 1,000 m) around nest and random sites. We then compared environmental conditions at matching nest and random sites within territories using conditional logistic regression, and used quantile regression to estimate trends in nesting habitats in relation to the year of territory establishment. Most nests (>85%, n = 197) were in eucalypts, maritime pines, and cork oaks. Nest sites were farther from the nests of neighboring territories than random points, and they were in areas with higher terrain roughness, lower cover by agricultural and built-up areas, and lower road and powerline densities. Nesting habitat selection varied little with year of territory establishment, although nesting in eucalypts increased, while cliff nesting and cork oak nesting, and terrain roughness declined. Our results suggest that the observed expansion of Bonelli's eagles was facilitated by the tree nesting behavior, which allowed the colonization of areas without cliffs. However, all but a very few breeding pairs settled in habitats comparable to those of the initial population nucleus, suggesting that after an initial trigger possibly facilitated by tree nesting, the habitat selection remained largely conservative. Overall, our study supports recent calls to incorporate information on behavior for understanding and predicting species range shifts.