Sixteen-Year Longitudinal Evaluation of Blood-Based DNA Methylation Biomarkers for Early Prediction of Alzheimer's Disease.

BACKGROUND: DNA methylation (DNAm), an epigenetic mark reflecting both inherited and environmental influences, has shown promise for Alzheimer's disease (AD) prediction. OBJECTIVE: Testing long-term predictive ability (>15 years) of existing DNAm-based epigenetic age acceleration (EAA) measures and identifying novel early blood-based DNAm AD-prediction biomarkers. METHODS: EAA measures calculated from Illumina EPIC data from blood were tested with linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) in a longitudinal case-control sample (50 late-onset AD cases; 51 matched controls) with prospective data up to 16 years before clinical onset, and post-onset follow-up. Novel DNAm biomarkers were generated with epigenome-wide LMMs, and Sparse Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis applied at pre- (10-16 years), and post-AD-onset time-points. RESULTS: EAA did not differentiate cases from controls during the follow-up time (p > 0.05). Three new DNA biomarkers showed in-sample predictive ability on average 8 years pre-onset, after adjustment for age, sex, and white blood cell proportions (p-values: 0.022-<0.00001). Our longitudinally-derived panel replicated nominally (p = 0.012) in an external cohort (n = 146 cases, 324 controls). However, its effect size and discriminatory accuracy were limited compared to APOEɛ4-carriership (OR = 1.38 per 1 SD DNAm score increase versus OR = 13.58 for ɛ4-allele carriage; AUCs = 77.2% versus 87.0%). Literature review showed low overlap (n = 4) across 3275 AD-associated CpGs from 8 published studies, and no overlap with our identified CpGs.

Memory profiles predict dementia over 23-28 years in normal but not successful aging.

OBJECTIVES: Prospective studies suggest that memory deficits are detectable decades before clinical symptoms of dementia emerge. However, individual differences in long-term memory trajectories prior to diagnosis need to be further elucidated. The aim of the current study was to investigate long-term dementia and mortality risk for individuals with different memory trajectory profiles in a well-characterized population-based sample. METHODS: 1062 adults (aged 45-80 years) who were non-demented at baseline were followed over 23-28 years. Dementia and mortality risk were studied for three previously classified episodic memory trajectory groups: maintained high performance (Maintainers; 26%), average decline (Averages; 64%), and accelerated decline (Decliners; 12%), using multistate modeling to characterize individuals' transitions from an initial non-demented state, possibly to a state of dementia and/or death. RESULTS: The memory groups showed considerable intergroup variability in memory profiles, starting 10-15 years prior to dementia diagnosis, and prior to death. A strong relationship between memory trajectory group and dementia risk was found. Specifically, Decliners had more than a fourfold risk of developing dementia compared to Averages. In contrast, Maintainers had a 2.6 times decreased dementia risk compared to Averages, and in addition showed no detectable memory decline prior to dementia diagnosis. A similar pattern of association was found for the memory groups and mortality risk, although only among non-demented. CONCLUSION: There was a strong relationship between accelerated memory decline and dementia, further supporting the prognostic value of memory decline. The intergroup differences, however, suggest that mechanisms involved in successful memory aging may delay symptom onset.

Short Leukocyte Telomeres, But Not Telomere Attrition Rates, Predict Memory Decline in the 20-Year Longitudinal Betula Study.

Leukocyte telomere length (LTL) is a proposed biomarker for aging-related disorders, including cognitive decline and dementia. Long-term longitudinal studies measuring intra-individual changes in both LTL and cognitive outcomes are scarce, precluding strong conclusions about a potential aging-related relationship between LTL shortening and cognitive decline. This study investigated associations between baseline levels and longitudinal changes in LTL and memory performance across an up to 20-year follow-up in 880 dementia-free participants from a population-based study (mean baseline age: 56.8 years, range: 40-80; 52% female). Shorter baseline LTL significantly predicted subsequent memory decline (r = .34, 95% confidence interval: 0.06, 0.82), controlling for age, sex, and other relevant covariates. No significant associations were however observed between intra-individual changes in LTL and memory, neither concurrently nor with a 5-year time-lag between LTL shortening and memory decline. These results support the notion of short LTL as a predictive factor for aging-related memory decline, but suggest that LTL dynamics in adulthood and older age may be less informative of cognitive outcomes in aging. Furthermore, the results highlight the importance of long-term longitudinal evaluation of outcomes in biomarker research.

Effects of polygenic risk for Alzheimer's disease on rate of cognitive decline in normal aging.

Most people's cognitive abilities decline with age, with significant and partly genetically driven, individual differences in rate of change. Although APOE ɛ4 and genetic scores for late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) have been related to cognitive decline during preclinical stages of dementia, there is limited knowledge concerning genetic factors implied in normal cognitive aging. In the present study, we examined three potential genetic predictors of age-related cognitive decline as follows: (1) the APOE ɛ4 allele, (2) a polygenic score for general cognitive ability (PGS-cog), and (3) a polygenic risk score for late-onset AD (PRS-LOAD). We examined up to six time points of cognitive measurements in the longitudinal population-based Betula study, covering a 25-year follow-up period. Only participants that remained alive and non-demented until the most recent dementia screening (1-3 years after the last test occasion) were included (n = 1087). Individual differences in rate of cognitive change (composite score) were predicted by the PRS-LOAD and APOE ɛ4, but not by PGS-cog. To control for the possibility that the results reflected a preclinical state of Alzheimer's disease in some participants, we re-ran the analyses excluding cognitive data from the last test occasion to model cognitive change up-until a minimum of 6 years before potential onset of clinical Alzheimers. Strikingly, the association of PRS-LOAD, but not APOE ɛ4, with cognitive change remained. The results indicate that PRS-LOAD predicts individual difference in rate of cognitive decline in normal aging, but it remains to be determined to what extent this reflects preclinical Alzheimer's disease brain pathophysiology and subsequent risk to develop the disease.

Elevated plasma neurofilament light in aging reflects brain white-matter alterations but does not predict cognitive decline or Alzheimer's disease.

INTRODUCTION: We investigated neurofilament light (NFL) accumulation in normal aging as well as in preclinical and clinical Alzheimer's disease (AD) and assessed individual differences in NFL load in relation to cognition and brain white-matter integrity. METHODS: We analyzed longitudinal data covering 30 years (1988-2017). Cognitive testing was done up to six times. Plasma NFL was quantified for controls and 142 cases who developed AD over time, and longitudinal changes in NFL were quantified for 100 individuals with three brain-imaging sessions. RESULTS: Longitudinal analyses revealed age-related NFL increases with marked variability. AD cases had elevated NFL levels, while no significant group differences were seen in the preclinical phase. Variability in NFL levels showed non-significant correlations with cognition but was associated with brain white matter. DISCUSSION: Our findings suggest that elevated blood NFL, likely reflecting brain white-matter alterations, characterizes clinical AD, while NFL levels do not predict age-related cognitive impairment or impending AD.

Traffic-Related Air Pollution as a Risk Factor for Dementia: No Clear Modifying Effects of APOEɛ4 in the Betula Cohort.

It is widely known that the apolipoprotein E (APOE) ɛ4 allele imposes a higher risk for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Recent evidence suggests that exposure to air pollution is also a risk factor for AD, and results from a few studies indicate that the effect of air pollution on cognitive function and dementia is stronger in APOEɛ4 carriers than in non-carriers. Air pollution and interaction with APOEɛ4 on AD risk thus merits further attention. We studied dementia incidence over a 15-year period from the longitudinal Betula study in Northern Sweden. As a marker for long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution, we used modelled annual mean nitrogen oxide levels at the residential address of the participants at start of follow-up. Nitrogen oxide correlate well with fine particulate air pollution levels in the study area. We had full data on air pollution, incidence of AD and vascular dementia (VaD), APOEɛ4 carrier status, and relevant confounding factors for 1,567 participants. As expected, air pollution was rather clearly associated with dementia incidence. However, there was no evidence for a modifying effect by APOEɛ4 on the association (p-value for interaction > 0.30 for both total dementia (AD+VaD) and AD). The results from this study do not imply that adverse effects of air pollution on dementia incidence is limited to, or stronger in, APOEɛ4 carriers than in the total population.

Serum Metabolite Markers of Dementia Through Quantitative NMR Analysis: The Importance of Threonine-Linked Metabolic Pathways.

There is a great need for diagnostic biomarkers of impending dementia. Metabolite markers in blood have been investigated in several studies, but inconclusive findings encourage further investigation, particularly in the pre-diagnostic phase. In the present study, the serum metabolomes of 110 dementia or pre-diagnostic dementia individuals and 201 healthy individuals matched for age, gender, and education were analyzed by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy in combination with multivariate data analysis. 58 metabolites were quantified in each of the 311 samples. Individuals with dementia were discriminated from controls using a panel of seven metabolites, while the pre-diagnostic dementia subjects were distinguished from controls using a separate set of seven metabolites, where threonine was a common significant metabolite in both panels. Metabolite and pathway alterations specific for dementia and pre-diagnostic dementia were identified, in particular a disturbed threonine catabolism at the pre-diagnostic stage that extends to several threonine-linked pathways at the dementia stage.

Maintained memory in aging is associated with young epigenetic age.

Epigenetic alterations during aging have been proposed to contribute to decline in physical and cognitive functions, and accelerated epigenetic aging has been associated with disease and all-cause mortality later in life. In this study, we estimated epigenetic age dynamics in groups with different memory trajectories (maintained high performance, average decline, and accelerated decline) over a 15-year period. Epigenetic (DNA-methylation [DNAm]) age was assessed, and delta age (DNAm age - chronological age) was calculated in blood samples at baseline (age: 55-65 years) and 15 years later in 52 age- and gender-matched individuals from the Betula study in Sweden. A lower delta DNAm age was observed for those with maintained memory functions compared with those with average (p = 0.035) or accelerated decline (p = 0.037). Moreover, separate analyses revealed that DNAm age at follow-up, but not chronologic age, was a significant predictor of dementia (p = 0.019). Our findings suggest that young epigenetic age contributes to maintained memory in aging.

Smell Loss Predicts Mortality Risk Regardless of Dementia Conversion.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether dementia could explain the association between poor olfactory performance and mortality risk within a decade-long follow-up period. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Betula Study, Umeå, Sweden. PARTICIPANTS: A population-based sample of adult participants without dementia at baseline aged 40 to 90 (N = 1,774). MEASUREMENTS: Olfactory performance using the Scandinavian Odor-Identification Test (SOIT) and self-reported olfactory function; several social, cognitive, and medical risk factors at baseline; and incident dementia during the following decade. RESULTS: Within the 10-year follow-up, 411 of 1,774 (23.2%) participants had died. In a Cox model, the association between higher SOIT score and lower mortality was significant (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.74 per point interval, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.71-0.77, P < .001). The effect was attenuated, but remained significant, after controlling for age, sex, education, and health-related and cognitive variables (HR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.87-0.97, P = .001). The association between SOIT score and mortality was retained after controlling for dementia conversion before death (HR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.87-0.97, P = .001). Similar results were obtained for self-reported olfactory dysfunction. CONCLUSION: Poor odor identification and poor self-reported olfactory function are associated with greater likelihood of future mortality. Dementia does not attenuate the association between olfactory loss and mortality, suggesting that olfactory loss might mark deteriorating health, irrespective of dementia.

NMR analysis of the human saliva metabolome distinguishes dementia patients from matched controls.

Saliva is a biofluid that is sensitive to metabolic changes and is straightforward to collect in a non-invasive manner, but it is seldom used for metabolite analysis when studying neurodegenerative disorders. We present a procedure for both an untargeted and targeted analysis of the saliva metabolome in which nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy is used in combination with multivariate data analysis. The applicability of this approach is demonstrated on saliva samples selected from the 25 year prospective Betula study, including samples from dementia subjects with either Alzheimer's disease (AD) or vascular dementia at the time of sampling or who developed it by the next sampling/assessment occasion five years later, and age-, gender-, and education-matched control individuals without dementia. Statistically significant multivariate models were obtained that separated patients with dementia from controls and revealed seven discriminatory metabolites. Dementia patients showed significantly increased concentrations of acetic acid (fold change (fc) = 1.25, p = 2 × 10(-5)), histamine (fc = 1.26, p = 0.019), and propionate (fc = 1.35, p = 0.002), while significantly decreased levels were observed for dimethyl sulfone (fc = 0.81, p = 0.005), glycerol (fc = 0.79, p = 0.04), taurine (fc = 0.70, p = 0.007), and succinate (fc = 0.62, p = 0.008). Histamine, succinate, and taurine are known to be important in AD, and acetic acid and glycerol are involved in related pathways. Dimethyl sulfone and propionate originate from the diet and bacterial flora and might reflect poorer periodontal status in the dementia patients. For these seven metabolites, a weak but statistically significant pre-diagnostic value was observed. Taken together, we present a robust and general NMR analysis approach for studying the saliva metabolome that has potential use for screening and early detection of dementia.

Long-term episodic memory decline is associated with olfactory deficits only in carriers of ApoE-є4.

The ɛ4 allele of the Apolipoprotein E gene is a genetic risk factor for late-onset dementia of the Alzheimers' type (DAT), which is characterized by loss of both episodic memory and olfactory functions. Little is known about the possible role of ɛ4 in the association between ongoing episodic memory decline and olfactory deficits in the general population, but such information is relevant in determining the relevance of olfaction as a marker of DAT risk. The present study was based on a large, population-based sample (n=1087, aged 45-90 years, of which 324 were ɛ4-carriers). Episodic memory change rates were established using data collected every 5 years for a 10-20 year interval leading up to an olfactory assessment using the Scandinavian Odor Identification Test at the last wave of data collection. Participants were classified according to whether or not their episodic memory ability declined more rapidly than the age-typical norm (by >1SD). Our main result is that only in ɛ4-carriers was episodic memory decline associated with odor identification impairment. In individuals without ɛ4, odor identification was unrelated to episodic memory decline status. Follow-up analyses indicated that this moderation by ɛ4 was due to the olfactory nature of the identification test, and that the effect was not caused by 63 individuals with dementia. Our results suggest that the ɛ4 determines the functional association between ongoing episodic memory decline and olfaction. These findings are consistent with the notion that ɛ4-carriers with DAT, compared to non-carriers, display a cortical atrophy pattern that is more focused on mediotemporal lobe regions supporting olfactory and episodic memory functions. Olfactory and memory assessments might provide complementary information on mediotemporal atrophy prior to clinical dementia onset, but the ɛ4 should be considered when using olfactory assessment as an early-stage indicator.