HERMES: Holographic Equivariant neuRal network model for Mutational Effect and Stability prediction.

Predicting the stability and fitness effects of amino acid mutations in proteins is a cornerstone of biological discovery and engineering. Various experimental techniques have been developed to measure mutational effects, providing us with extensive datasets across a diverse range of proteins. By training on these data, traditional computational modeling and more recent machine learning approaches have advanced significantly in predicting mutational effects. Here, we introduce HERMES, a 3D rotationally equivariant structure-based neural network model for mutational effect and stability prediction. Pre-trained to predict amino acid propensity from its surrounding 3D structure, HERMES can be fine-tuned for mutational effects using our open-source code. We present a suite of HERMES models, pre-trained with different strategies, and fine-tuned to predict the stability effect of mutations. Benchmarking against other models shows that HERMES often outperforms or matches their performance in predicting mutational effect on stability, binding, and fitness. HERMES offers versatile tools for evaluating mutational effects and can be fine-tuned for specific predictive objectives.

Learning the shape of protein microenvironments with a holographic convolutional neural network.

Proteins play a central role in biology from immune recognition to brain activity. While major advances in machine learning have improved our ability to predict protein structure from sequence, determining protein function from its sequence or structure remains a major challenge. Here, we introduce holographic convolutional neural network (H-CNN) for proteins, which is a physically motivated machine learning approach to model amino acid preferences in protein structures. H-CNN reflects physical interactions in a protein structure and recapitulates the functional information stored in evolutionary data. H-CNN accurately predicts the impact of mutations on protein stability and binding of protein complexes. Our interpretable computational model for protein structure-function maps could guide design of novel proteins with desired function.

Reversible, tunable epigenetic silencing of TCF1 generates flexibility in the T cell memory decision.

The immune system encodes information about the severity of a pathogenic threat in the quantity and type of memory cells it forms. This encoding emerges from lymphocyte decisions to maintain or lose self-renewal and memory potential during a challenge. By tracking CD8+ T cells at the single-cell and clonal lineage level using time-resolved transcriptomics, quantitative live imaging, and an acute infection model, we find that T cells will maintain or lose memory potential early after antigen recognition. However, following pathogen clearance, T cells may regain memory potential if initially lost. Mechanistically, this flexibility is implemented by a stochastic cis-epigenetic switch that tunably and reversibly silences the memory regulator, TCF1, in response to stimulation. Mathematical modeling shows how this flexibility allows memory T cell numbers to scale robustly with pathogen virulence and immune response magnitudes. We propose that flexibility and stochasticity in cellular decisions ensure optimal immune responses against diverse threats.

Probabilities of developing HIV-1 bNAb sequence features in uninfected and chronically infected individuals.

HIV-1 broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) are able to suppress viremia and prevent infection. Their induction by vaccination is therefore a major goal. However, in contrast to antibodies that neutralize other pathogens, HIV-1-specific bNAbs frequently carry uncommon molecular characteristics that might prevent their induction. Here, we perform unbiased sequence analyses of B cell receptor repertoires from 57 uninfected and 46 chronically HIV-1- or HCV-infected individuals and learn probabilistic models to predict the likelihood of bNAb development. We formally show that lower probabilities for bNAbs are predictive of higher HIV-1 neutralization activity. Moreover, ranking bNAbs by their probabilities allows to identify highly potent antibodies with superior generation probabilities as preferential targets for vaccination approaches. Importantly, we find equal bNAb probabilities across infected and uninfected individuals. This implies that chronic infection is not a prerequisite for the generation of bNAbs, fostering the hope that HIV-1 vaccines can induce bNAb development in uninfected people.

H-Packer: Holographic Rotationally Equivariant Convolutional Neural Network for Protein Side-Chain Packing.

Accurately modeling protein 3D structure is essential for the design of functional proteins. An important sub-task of structure modeling is protein side-chain packing: predicting the conformation of side-chains (rotamers) given the protein's backbone structure and amino-acid sequence. Conventional approaches for this task rely on expensive sampling procedures over hand-crafted energy functions and rotamer libraries. Recently, several deep learning methods have been developed to tackle the problem in a data-driven way, albeit with vastly different formulations (from image-to-image translation to directly predicting atomic coordinates). Here, we frame the problem as a joint regression over the side-chains' true degrees of freedom: the dihedral χ angles. We carefully study possible objective functions for this task, while accounting for the underlying symmetries of the task. We propose Holographic Packer (H-Packer), a novel two-stage algorithm for side-chain packing built on top of two light-weight rotationally equivariant neural networks. We evaluate our method on CASP13 and CASP14 targets. H-Packer is computationally efficient and shows favorable performance against conventional physics-based algorithms and is competitive against alternative deep learning solutions.

Steering and controlling evolution - from bioengineering to fighting pathogens.

Control interventions steer the evolution of molecules, viruses, microorganisms or other cells towards a desired outcome. Applications range from engineering biomolecules and synthetic organisms to drug, therapy and vaccine design against pathogens and cancer. In all these instances, a control system alters the eco-evolutionary trajectory of a target system, inducing new functions or suppressing escape evolution. Here, we synthesize the objectives, mechanisms and dynamics of eco-evolutionary control in different biological systems. We discuss how the control system learns and processes information about the target system by sensing or measuring, through adaptive evolution or computational prediction of future trajectories. This information flow distinguishes pre-emptive control strategies by humans from feedback control in biotic systems. We establish a cost-benefit calculus to gauge and optimize control protocols, highlighting the fundamental link between predictability of evolution and efficacy of pre-emptive control.

Design of an optimal combination therapy with broadly neutralizing antibodies to suppress HIV-1.

Infusion of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) has shown promise as an alternative to anti-retroviral therapy against HIV. A key challenge is to suppress viral escape, which is more effectively achieved with a combination of bNAbs. Here, we propose a computational approach to predict the efficacy of a bNAb therapy based on the population genetics of HIV escape, which we parametrize using high-throughput HIV sequence data from bNAb-naive patients. By quantifying the mutational target size and the fitness cost of HIV-1 escape from bNAbs, we predict the distribution of rebound times in three clinical trials. We show that a cocktail of three bNAbs is necessary to effectively suppress viral escape, and predict the optimal composition of such bNAb cocktail. Our results offer a rational therapy design for HIV, and show how genetic data can be used to predict treatment outcomes and design new approaches to pathogenic control.

Mutual information maximization for amortized likelihood inference from sampled trajectories: MINIMALIST.

Simulation-based inference enables learning the parameters of a model even when its likelihood cannot be computed in practice. One class of methods uses data simulated with different parameters to infer models of the likelihood-to-evidence ratio, or equivalently the posterior function. Here we frame the inference task as an estimation of an energy function parametrized with an artificial neural network. We present an intuitive approach, named MINIMALIST, in which the optimal model of the likelihood-to-evidence ratio is found by maximizing the likelihood of simulated data. Within this framework, the connection between the task of simulation-based inference and mutual information maximization is clear, and we show how several known methods of posterior estimation relate to alternative lower bounds to mutual information. These distinct objective functions aim at the same optimal energy form and therefore can be directly benchmarked. We compare their accuracy in the inference of model parameters, focusing on four dynamical systems that encompass common challenges in time series analysis: dynamics driven by multiplicative noise, nonlinear interactions, chaotic behavior, and high-dimensional parameter space.

T cell immune responses deciphered.

A machine-learning approach reveals antigen encoding that predicts T cell responses.

Antigenic evolution of human influenza H3N2 neuraminidase is constrained by charge balancing.

As one of the main influenza antigens, neuraminidase (NA) in H3N2 virus has evolved extensively for more than 50 years due to continuous immune pressure. While NA has recently emerged as an effective vaccine target, biophysical constraints on the antigenic evolution of NA remain largely elusive. Here, we apply combinatorial mutagenesis and next-generation sequencing to characterize the local fitness landscape in an antigenic region of NA in six different human H3N2 strains that were isolated around 10 years apart. The local fitness landscape correlates well among strains and the pairwise epistasis is highly conserved. Our analysis further demonstrates that local net charge governs the pairwise epistasis in this antigenic region. In addition, we show that residue coevolution in this antigenic region is correlated with the pairwise epistasis between charge states. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of quantifying epistasis and the underlying biophysical constraint for building a model of influenza evolution.

Dynamics of B cell repertoires and emergence of cross-reactive responses in patients with different severities of COVID-19.

Individuals with the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) show varying severity of the disease, ranging from asymptomatic to requiring intensive care. Although monoclonal antibodies specific to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been identified, we still lack an understanding of the overall landscape of B cell receptor (BCR) repertoires in individuals with COVID-19. We use high-throughput sequencing of bulk and plasma B cells collected at multiple time points during infection to characterize signatures of the B cell response to SARS-CoV-2 in 19 individuals. Using principled statistical approaches, we associate differential features of BCRs with different disease severity. We identify 38 significantly expanded clonal lineages shared among individuals as candidates for responses specific to SARS-CoV-2. Using single-cell sequencing, we verify the reactivity of BCRs shared among individuals to SARS-CoV-2 epitopes. Moreover, we identify the natural emergence of a BCR with cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 in some individuals. Our results provide insights important for development of rational therapies and vaccines against COVID-19.

Deep generative selection models of T and B cell receptor repertoires with soNNia.

Subclasses of lymphocytes carry different functional roles to work together and produce an immune response and lasting immunity. Additionally to these functional roles, T and B cell lymphocytes rely on the diversity of their receptor chains to recognize different pathogens. The lymphocyte subclasses emerge from common ancestors generated with the same diversity of receptors during selection processes. Here, we leverage biophysical models of receptor generation with machine learning models of selection to identify specific sequence features characteristic of functional lymphocyte repertoires and subrepertoires. Specifically, using only repertoire-level sequence information, we classify CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, find correlations between receptor chains arising during selection, and identify T cell subsets that are targets of pathogenic epitopes. We also show examples of when simple linear classifiers do as well as more complex machine learning methods.

Optimal evolutionary decision-making to store immune memory.

The adaptive immune system provides a diverse set of molecules that can mount specific responses against a multitude of pathogens. Memory is a key feature of adaptive immunity, which allows organisms to respond more readily upon re-infections. However, differentiation of memory cells is still one of the least understood cell fate decisions. Here, we introduce a mathematical framework to characterize optimal strategies to store memory to maximize the utility of immune response over an organism's lifetime. We show that memory production should be actively regulated to balance between affinity and cross-reactivity of immune receptors for an effective protection against evolving pathogens. Moreover, we predict that specificity of memory should depend on the organism's lifespan, and shorter lived organisms with fewer pathogenic encounters should store more cross-reactive memory. Our framework provides a baseline to gauge the efficacy of immune memory in light of an organism's coevolutionary history with pathogens.

Dynamics of B-cell repertoires and emergence of cross-reactive responses in COVID-19 patients with different disease severity.

COVID-19 patients show varying severity of the disease ranging from asymptomatic to requiring intensive care. Although a number of SARS-CoV-2 specific monoclonal antibodies have been identified, we still lack an understanding of the overall landscape of B-cell receptor (BCR) repertoires in COVID-19 patients. Here, we used high-throughput sequencing of bulk and plasma B-cells collected over multiple time points during infection to characterize signatures of B-cell response to SARS-CoV-2 in 19 patients. Using principled statistical approaches, we determined differential features of BCRs associated with different disease severity. We identified 38 significantly expanded clonal lineages shared among patients as candidates for specific responses to SARS-CoV-2. Using single-cell sequencing, we verified reactivity of BCRs shared among individuals to SARS-CoV-2 epitopes. Moreover, we identified natural emergence of a BCR with cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 in a number of patients. Our results provide important insights for development of rational therapies and vaccines against COVID-19.

Dynamics of B-cell repertoires and emergence of cross-reactive responses in COVID-19 patients with different disease severity.

COVID-19 patients show varying severity of the disease ranging from asymptomatic to requiring intensive care. Although a number of SARS-CoV-2 specific monoclonal antibodies have been identified, we still lack an understanding of the overall landscape of B-cell receptor (BCR) repertoires in COVID-19 patients. Here, we used high-throughput sequencing of bulk and plasma B-cells collected over multiple time points during infection to characterize signatures of B-cell response to SARS-CoV-2 in 19 patients. Using principled statistical approaches, we determined differential features of BCRs associated with different disease severity. We identified 38 significantly expanded clonal lineages shared among patients as candidates for specific responses to SARS-CoV-2. Using single-cell sequencing, we verified reactivity of BCRs shared among individuals to SARS-CoV-2 epitopes. Moreover, we identified natural emergence of a BCR with cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 in a number of patients. Our results provide important insights for development of rational therapies and vaccines against COVID-19.

Information-Geometric Optimization with Natural Selection.

Evolutionary algorithms, inspired by natural evolution, aim to optimize difficult objective functions without computing derivatives. Here we detail the relationship between classical population genetics of quantitative traits and evolutionary optimization, and formulate a new evolutionary algorithm. Optimization of a continuous objective function is analogous to searching for high fitness phenotypes on a fitness landscape. We describe how natural selection moves a population along the non-Euclidean gradient that is induced by the population on the fitness landscape (the natural gradient). We show how selection is related to Newton's method in optimization under quadratic fitness landscapes, and how selection increases fitness at the cost of reducing diversity. We describe the generation of new phenotypes and introduce an operator that recombines the whole population to generate variants. Finally, we introduce a proof-of-principle algorithm that combines natural selection, our recombination operator, and an adaptive method to increase selection and find the optimum. The algorithm is extremely simple in implementation; it has no matrix inversion or factorization, does not require storing a covariance matrix, and may form the basis of more general model-based optimization algorithms with natural gradient updates.

SOS: online probability estimation and generation of T-and B-cell receptors.

SUMMARY: Recent advances in modelling VDJ recombination and subsequent selection of T- and B-cell receptors provide useful tools to analyse and compare immune repertoires across time, individuals and tissues. A suite of tools-IGoR, OLGA and SONIA-have been publicly released to the community that allow for the inference of generative and selection models from high-throughput sequencing data. However, using these tools requires some scripting or command-line skills and familiarity with complex datasets. As a result, the application of the above models has not been available to a broad audience. In this application note, we fill this gap by presenting Simple OLGA & SONIA (SOS), a web-based interface where users with no coding skills can compute the generation and post-selection probabilities of their sequences, as well as generate batches of synthetic sequences. The application also functions on mobile phones. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: SOS is freely available to use at sites.google.com/view/statbiophysens/sos with source code at github.com/statbiophys/sos.

Generative models of T-cell receptor sequences.

T-cell receptors (TCR) are key proteins of the adaptive immune system, generated randomly in each individual, whose diversity underlies our ability to recognize infections and malignancies. Modeling the distribution of TCR sequences is of key importance for immunology and medical applications. Here, we compare two inference methods trained on high-throughput sequencing data: a knowledge-guided approach, which accounts for the details of sequence generation, supplemented by a physics-inspired model of selection; and a knowledge-free variational autoencoder based on deep artificial neural networks. We show that the knowledge-guided model outperforms the deep network approach at predicting TCR probabilities, while being more interpretable, at a lower computational cost.

Major antigenic site B of human influenza H3N2 viruses has an evolving local fitness landscape.

Antigenic drift of influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) is enabled by facile evolvability. However, HA antigenic site B, which has become immunodominant in recent human H3N2 influenza viruses, is also evolutionarily constrained by its involvement in receptor binding. Here, we employ deep mutational scanning to probe the local fitness landscape of HA antigenic site B in six different human H3N2 strains spanning from 1968 to 2016. We observe that the fitness landscape of HA antigenic site B can be very different between strains. Sequence variants that exhibit high fitness in one strain can be deleterious in another, indicating that the evolutionary constraints of antigenic site B have changed over time. Structural analysis suggests that the local fitness landscape of antigenic site B can be reshaped by natural mutations via modulation of the receptor-binding mode. Overall, these findings elucidate how influenza virus continues to explore new antigenic space despite strong functional constraints.

The size of the immune repertoire of bacteria.

Some bacteria and archaea possess an immune system, based on the CRISPR-Cas mechanism, that confers adaptive immunity against viruses. In such species, individual prokaryotes maintain cassettes of viral DNA elements called spacers as a memory of past infections. Typically, the cassettes contain several dozen expressed spacers. Given that bacteria can have very large genomes and since having more spacers should confer a better memory, it is puzzling that so little genetic space would be devoted by prokaryotes to their adaptive immune systems. Here, assuming that CRISPR functions as a long-term memory-based defense against a diverse landscape of viral species, we identify a fundamental tradeoff between the amount of immune memory and effectiveness of response to a given threat. This tradeoff implies an optimal size for the prokaryotic immune repertoire in the observational range.