Frailty on the island of Ireland: evidence from the NICOLA and TILDA studies.

BACKGROUND: Aimed to compare the prevalence, characteristics, and associated mortality risk of frailty in Northern Ireland (NI) and the Republic of Ireland (ROI). METHODS: Secondary analysis of the first wave of two nationally representative cohorts, the Northern Ireland Cohort for the Longitudinal Study of Ageing or NICOLA study (N = 8504) and the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing or TILDA study (N = 8504). Frailty was assessed using a harmonized accumulation deficits frailty index (FI) containing 30 items. FI scores classified individuals as non-frail (<0.10), pre-frail (0.10-0.24) and frail (≥0.25). Linkage to respective administrative data sources provided mortality information with a follow-up time of 8 years. RESULTS: The prevalence of frailty was considerably higher in NI compared with the ROI (29.0% compared with 15.0%), though pre-frailty was slightly lower (35.8% and 37.3%, respectively). Age, female sex, and lower socio-economic status were consistently associated with a higher likelihood of both pre-frailty and frailty. In the pooled analysis, both frailty and pre-frailty were higher in NI (RR = 2.68, 95% CIs 2.45, 2.94 and RR = 1.30, 95% CIs 1.21, 1.40, respectively). Frailty was associated with an increased mortality risk in both cohorts, even after full adjustment for all other characteristics, being marginally higher in TILDA than in NICOLA (HR = 2.43, 95% CIs 2.03, 2.91 vs. HR = 2.31, 95% CIs 1.90, 2.79). CONCLUSIONS: Frailty is a major public health concern for both jurisdictions. Further research and monitoring are required to elucidate why there is a higher prevalence in NI and to identify factors in early life that may be driving these differences.

Adverse events after first and second doses of COVID-19 vaccination in England: a national vaccine surveillance platform self-controlled case series study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the incidence of adverse events of interest (AEIs) after receiving their first and second doses of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccinations, and to report the safety profile differences between the different COVID-19 vaccines. DESIGN: We used a self-controlled case series design to estimate the relative incidence (RI) of AEIs reported to the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners national sentinel network. We compared the AEIs that occurred seven days before and after receiving the COVID-19 vaccinations to background levels between 1 October 2020 and 12 September 2021. SETTING: England, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals experiencing AEIs after receiving first and second doses of COVID-19 vaccines. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: AEIs determined based on events reported in clinical trials and in primary care during post-license surveillance. RESULTS: A total of 7,952,861 individuals were vaccinated with COVID-19 vaccines within the study period. Among them, 781,200 individuals (9.82%) presented to general practice with 1,482,273 AEIs. Within the first seven days post-vaccination, 4.85% of all the AEIs were reported. There was a 3-7% decrease in the overall RI of AEIs in the seven days after receiving both doses of Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 (RI = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.91-0.94) and 0.96; 95% CI: 0.94-0.98), respectively) and Oxford-AstraZeneca ChAdOx1 (RI = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.98) for both doses), but a 20% increase after receiving the first dose of Moderna mRNA-1273 (RI = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.00-1.44)). CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccines are associated with a small decrease in the incidence of medically attended AEIs. Sentinel networks could routinely report common AEI rates, which could contribute to reporting vaccine safety.

Suicide risk following ED presentation with self-harm varies by hospital.

BACKGROUND: Patients presenting to Emergency Department (ED) with self-harm are recognized to be at high risk of suicide and other causes of death in the immediate period following ED presentation. It is also recognized that there is a large variation in the management and care pathways that these patients experience at EDs. AIMS: This study asks if there is a significant variation in mortality risk according to hospital attended and if this is explained by differences in care management. METHODS: Population-wide data from the Northern Ireland Registry of Self-Harm from April 2012 were linked with centrally held mortality records to December 2019, providing data on self-harm type and ED care. Cox proportional hazards models analyzed mortality risk, coded as suicide, all-external causes and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Analysis of the 64,350 ED presentations for self-harm by 30,011 individuals confirmed a marked variation across EDs in proportion of patients receiving mental health assessment and likelihood of admission to general and psychiatric wards. There was a significant variation in suicide risk following attendance according to ED attended with the three-fold range between the lowest (HRadj 0.32 95% CIs 0.16, 0.67) and highest. These differences persisted even after adjustment for patient characteristics, variation in types of self-harm, and care management at the ED. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that while the management of self-harm cases in the ED is important, it is the availability and access to, and level of engagement with, the subsequent management and care in the community rather than the immediate care at EDs that is most critical for patients presenting to ED with self-harm. However, the initial care in ED is an important gateway in initiating referrals to these services.

Childhood contact with social services and risk of suicide or sudden death in young adulthood: identifying hidden risk in a population-wide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Childhood out-of-home care is associated with premature death in adulthood, in particular death by suicide, accidents and violence. However, little is known about the mortality risk in the much larger population of adults that had contact with social services in childhood but never entered out-of-home care. We determine the association between all tiers of contact with children's social services and risk of suicide and other sudden deaths in young adulthood. METHODS: This population-wide, longitudinal, record-linkage study of adults in Northern Ireland born between 1985 and 1997 (n=437 008) followed each individual from age 18 years to July 2021 (maximum age 36 years). Cox regression models estimated the association between level of contact with social services in childhood (no contact; referred but assessed as not in need (NIN); child in need (CIN) and child in care (CIC)) and risk of death by suicide and sudden death in young adulthood. RESULTS: Individuals with childhood social care contact (n=51 097) comprised 11.7% of the cohort yet accounted for 35.3% of sudden deaths and 39.7% of suicide deaths. Risk of suicide or sudden death increased stepwise with level of childhood contact and was highest in adults with a history of out-of-home care (suicide HR 8.85 (95% CI 6.83 to 11.4)). Individuals assessed as NIN, and those deemed a CIN, had four times the risk of death by suicide in young adulthood compared with unexposed peers (HR 4.25 (95% CI 3.26 to 5.53) and HR 4.49 (95% CI 3.75 to 5.39), respectively). CONCLUSION: Childhood contact with social services is a risk marker for death by suicide and sudden death in young adulthood. Risk is not confined to adults with a history of out-of-home care but extends to the much larger population that had contact with social services but never entered care.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on self-harm and self-harm/suicide ideation: population-wide data linkage study and time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns were predicted to have a major impact on suicidal behaviour, including self-harm. However, current studies have produced contradictory findings with limited trend data. AIMS: Nine years of linked individual-level administrative data were utilised to examine changes in hospital-presenting self-harm and ideation (thoughts of self-harm or suicide) before and during the pandemic. METHOD: National self-harm registry data were linked to demographic and socioeconomic indicators from healthcare registration records (n = 1 899 437). Monthly presentations of self-harm or ideation were split (pre-COVID-19 restrictions: April 2012 to February 2020; and during restrictions: March to September 2020). Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were trained in R taking into consideration trends and seasonal effects. Forecast ('expected') monthly values were compared with 'actual' values, stratified by demographic factors and method of harm. RESULTS: The number of individuals presenting with self-harm or ideation dropped significantly at the beginning of the pandemic (March-May 2020), before returning mostly to expected trends from June 2020. Stratified analysis showed similar presentation trends across most demographic subgroups except for those aged over 65 years, living alone or in affluent areas, where presentations remained unaffected, and those aged under 16 years, where numbers presenting with self-harm or ideation increased above expected levels. CONCLUSIONS: Although population trends show an overall drop in presentations before a return to 'normal' from June 2020, the demographic profile of those presenting with self-harm or ideation varied significantly, with increases in children under the age of 16 years. This highlights important potential target groups who may have been most negatively affected by the pandemic.

Maternal multimorbidity and preterm birth in Scotland: an observational record-linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity is common in women across the life course. Preterm birth is the single biggest cause of neonatal mortality and morbidity. We aim to estimate the prevalence of multimorbidity in pregnant women and to examine the association between maternal multimorbidity and PTB. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study using electronic health records from the Scottish Morbidity Records. All pregnancies among women aged 15 to 49 with a conception date between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2018 were included. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of two or more pre-existing long-term physical or mental health conditions, and complex multimorbidity as the presence of four or more. It was calculated at the time of conception using a predefined list of 79 conditions published by the MuM-PreDiCT consortium. PTB was defined as babies born alive between 24 and less than 37 completed weeks of gestation. We used Generalised Estimating Equations adjusted for maternal age, socioeconomic status, number of previous pregnancies, BMI, and smoking history to estimate the effect of maternal pre-existing multimorbidity. Absolut rates are reported in the results and tables, whilst Odds Ratios (ORs) are adjusted (aOR). RESULTS: Thirty thousand five hundred fifty-seven singleton births from 27,711 pregnant women were included in the analysis. The prevalence of pre-existing multimorbidity and complex multimorbidity was 16.8% (95% CI: 16.4-17.2) and 3.6% (95% CI: 3.3-3.8), respectively. The prevalence of multimorbidity in the youngest age group was 10.2%(95% CI: 8.8-11.6), while in those 40 to 44, it was 21.4% (95% CI: 18.4-24.4), and in the 45 to 49 age group, it was 20% (95% CI: 8.9-31.1). In women without multimorbidity, the prevalence of PTB was 6.7%; it was 11.6% in women with multimorbidity and 15.6% in women with complex multimorbidity. After adjusting for maternal age, socioeconomic status, number of previous pregnancies, Body Mass Index (BMI), and smoking, multimorbidity was associated with higher odds of PTB (aOR = 1.64, 95% CI: 1.48-1.82). CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity at the time of conception was present in one in six women and was associated with an increased risk of preterm birth. Multimorbidity presents a significant health burden to women and their offspring. Routine and comprehensive evaluation of women with multimorbidity before and during pregnancy is urgently needed.

Key outcomes for reporting in studies of pregnant women with multiple long-term conditions: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Maternal multiple long-term conditions are associated with adverse outcomes for mother and child. We conducted a qualitative study to inform a core outcome set for studies of pregnant women with multiple long-term conditions. METHODS: Women with two or more pre-existing long-term physical or mental health conditions, who had been pregnant in the last five years or planning a pregnancy, their partners and health care professionals were eligible. Recruitment was through social media, patients and health care professionals' organisations and personal contacts. Participants who contacted the study team were purposively sampled for maximum variation. Three virtual focus groups were conducted from December 2021 to March 2022 in the United Kingdom: (i) health care professionals (n = 8), (ii) women with multiple long-term conditions (n = 6), and (iii) women with multiple long-term conditions (n = 6) and partners (n = 2). There was representation from women with 20 different physical health conditions and four mental health conditions; health care professionals from obstetrics, obstetric/maternal medicine, midwifery, neonatology, perinatal psychiatry, and general practice. Participants were asked what outcomes should be reported in all studies of pregnant women with multiple long-term conditions. Inductive thematic analysis was conducted. Outcomes identified in the focus groups were mapped to those identified in a systematic literature search in the core outcome set development. RESULTS: The focus groups identified 63 outcomes, including maternal (n = 43), children's (n = 16) and health care utilisation (n = 4) outcomes. Twenty-eight outcomes were new when mapped to the systematic literature search. Outcomes considered important were generally similar across stakeholder groups. Women emphasised outcomes related to care processes, such as information sharing when transitioning between health care teams and stages of pregnancy (continuity of care). Both women and partners wanted to be involved in care decisions and to feel informed of the risks to the pregnancy and baby. Health care professionals additionally prioritised non-clinical outcomes, including quality of life and financial implications for the women; and longer-term outcomes, such as children's developmental outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The findings will inform the design of a core outcome set. Participants' experiences provided useful insights of how maternity care for pregnant women with multiple long-term conditions can be improved.

Record linkage studies of primary care utilisation after release from prison: A scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: There is a need to improve the implementation and provision of continuity of care between prison and community in order that people who have been in prison and have a history of low engagement with services or who are vulnerable receive appropriate and timely health care and treatment. Observational studies using record linkage have investigated continuity of care after release from prison but this type of research evidence has not been synthesised. OBJECTIVE: This paper presents a protocol designed to review record linkage studies about primary care utilisation after prison release in order to inform future research and guide service organisation and delivery towards people who are at-risk following release from prison. METHODS: This scoping review will follow the framework by Arksey and O'Malley (5 stages) and guidance developed by the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI). MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science Core Collection will be searched (January 2012-March 2023) using terms relating to (i) 'former prisoners' and (ii) 'primary care'. The review will focus on observational studies that have investigated this topic using linked data from two or more sources. Two authors will independently screen titles and abstracts (step 1) and full publications (step 2) using predefined eligibility criteria. Data will be extracted from included publications using a piloted data charting form. This review will map the findings in this research area by methodology, key findings and gaps in research, and current evidence will be synthesised narratively given the expected considerable heterogeneity across studies. DISCUSSION: This review is part of a work programme on health in prison (Administrative Data Research Centre, Northern Ireland). This work may be used to inform future research, policy and practice. Findings will be shared with stakeholders, published in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at relevant conferences. Ethical approval is not required.

Predictors and consequences of homelessness in whole-population observational studies that used administrative data: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Homelessness is a complex societal and public health challenge. Limited information exists about the population-level health and social care-related predictors and consequences of persons with lived experience of homelessness (PEH). Studies that focus on population subgroups or ad hoc questionnaires to gather data are of relatively limited generalisability to whole-population health surveillance and planning. The aim of this study was to find and synthesise information about the risk factors for, and consequences of, experiencing homelessness in whole-population studies that used routine administrative data. METHOD: We performed a systematic search using EMBASE, MEDLINE, the Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) and PsycINFO research databases for English-language studies published from inception until February 2023 that reported analyses of administrative data about homelessness and health and social care-related predictors and consequences. We followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. RESULTS: Of the 1224 articles reviewed, 30 publications met the inclusion criteria. The included studies examined a wide range of topic areas, and the homelessness definitions used in each varied considerably. Studies were categorised into several topic areas: Mortality, morbidity and COVID-19; health care usage and hospital re-admission; care home admission and shelter stay; and other (e.g. employment, crime victimisation). The studies reported that that the physical and mental health of people who experience homelessness was worse than that of the general population. Homeless individuals were more likely to have higher risk of hospitalisation, more likely to use emergency departments, have higher mortality rates and were at greater risk of needing intensive care or of dying from COVID-19 compared with general population. Additionally, homeless individuals were more likely to be incarcerated or unemployed. The effects were strongest for those who experienced being homeless as a child compared to those who experienced being homeless later on in life. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first systematic review of whole-population observational studies that used administrative data to identify causes and consequences associated with individuals who are experiencing homelessness. While the scientific literature provides evidence on some of the possible risk factors associated with being homeless, research into this research topic has been limited and gaps still remain. There is a need for more standardised best practice approaches to understand better the causes and consequences associated with being homeless.

The development of a core outcome set for studies of pregnant women with multimorbidity.

BACKGROUND: Heterogeneity in reported outcomes can limit the synthesis of research evidence. A core outcome set informs what outcomes are important and should be measured as a minimum in all future studies. We report the development of a core outcome set applicable to observational and interventional studies of pregnant women with multimorbidity. METHODS: We developed the core outcome set in four stages: (i) a systematic literature search, (ii) three focus groups with UK stakeholders, (iii) two rounds of Delphi surveys with international stakeholders and (iv) two international virtual consensus meetings. Stakeholders included women with multimorbidity and experience of pregnancy in the last 5 years, or are planning a pregnancy, their partners, health or social care professionals and researchers. Study adverts were shared through stakeholder charities and organisations. RESULTS: Twenty-six studies were included in the systematic literature search (2017 to 2021) reporting 185 outcomes. Thematic analysis of the focus groups added a further 28 outcomes. Two hundred and nine stakeholders completed the first Delphi survey. One hundred and sixteen stakeholders completed the second Delphi survey where 45 outcomes reached Consensus In (≥70% of all participants rating an outcome as Critically Important). Thirteen stakeholders reviewed 15 Borderline outcomes in the first consensus meeting and included seven additional outcomes. Seventeen stakeholders reviewed these 52 outcomes in a second consensus meeting, the threshold was ≥80% of all participants voting for inclusion. The final core outcome set included 11 outcomes. The five maternal outcomes were as follows: maternal death, severe maternal morbidity, change in existing long-term conditions (physical and mental), quality and experience of care and development of new mental health conditions. The six child outcomes were as follows: survival of baby, gestational age at birth, neurodevelopmental conditions/impairment, quality of life, birth weight and separation of baby from mother for health care needs. CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity in pregnancy is a new and complex clinical research area. Following a rigorous process, this complexity was meaningfully reduced to a core outcome set that balances the views of a diverse stakeholder group.

Predictors and Consequences of Homelessness: Protocol for a Cohort Study Design Using Linked Routine Data.

BACKGROUND: Homelessness is a global burden, estimated to impact more than 100 million people worldwide. Individuals and families experiencing homelessness are more likely to have poorer physical and mental health than the general population. Administrative data is being increasingly used in homelessness research. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to combine administrative health care data and social housing data to better understand the consequences and predictors associated with being homeless. METHODS: We will be linking health and social care administrative databases from Northern Ireland, United Kingdom. We will conduct descriptive analyses to examine trends in homelessness and investigate risk factors for key outcomes. RESULTS: The results of our analyses will be shared with stakeholders, reported at conferences and in academic journals, and summarized in policy briefing notes for policymakers. CONCLUSIONS: This study will aim to identify predictors and consequences of homelessness in Northern Ireland using linked housing, health, and social care data. The findings of this study will examine trends and outcomes in this vulnerable population using routinely collected health and social care administrative data. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/42404.

Trajectories in chronic disease accrual and mortality across the lifespan in Wales, UK (2005-2019), by area deprivation profile: linked electronic health records cohort study on 965,905 individuals.

Background: Understanding and quantifying the differences in disease development in different socioeconomic groups of people across the lifespan is important for planning healthcare and preventive services. The study aimed to measure chronic disease accrual, and examine the differences in time to individual morbidities, multimorbidity, and mortality between socioeconomic groups in Wales, UK. Methods: Population-wide electronic linked cohort study, following Welsh residents for up to 20 years (2000-2019). Chronic disease diagnoses were obtained from general practice and hospitalisation records using the CALIBER disease phenotype register. Multi-state models were used to examine trajectories of accrual of 132 diseases and mortality, adjusted for sex, age and area-level deprivation. Restricted mean survival time was calculated to measure time spent free of chronic disease(s) or mortality between socioeconomic groups. Findings: In total, 965,905 individuals aged 5-104 were included, from a possible 2.9 m individuals following a 5-year clearance period, with an average follow-up of 13.2 years (12.7 million person-years). Some 673,189 (69.7%) individuals developed at least one chronic disease or died within the study period. From ages 10 years upwards, the individuals living in the most deprived areas consistently experienced reduced time between health states, demonstrating accelerated transitions to first and subsequent morbidities and death compared to their demographic equivalent living in the least deprived areas. The largest difference were observed in 10 and 20 year old males developing multimorbidity (-0.45 years (99% CI: -0.45, -0.44)) and in 70 year old males dying after developing multimorbidity (-1.98 years (99% CI: -2.01, -1.95)). Interpretation: This study adds to the existing literature on health inequalities by demonstrating that individuals living in more deprived areas consistently experience accelerated time to diagnosis of chronic disease and death across all ages, accounting for competing risks. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, Health Data Research UK, and Administrative Data Research Wales.

Record linkage studies of drug-related deaths among adults who were released from prison to the community: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: There are public health concerns about an increased risk of mortality after release from prison. The objectives of this scoping review were to investigate, map and summarise evidence from record linkage studies about drug-related deaths among former adult prisoners. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO and Web of Science were searched for studies (January 2011- September 2021) using keywords/index headings. Two authors independently screened all titles and abstracts using inclusion and exclusion criteria and subsequently screened full publications. Discrepancies were discussed with a third author. One author extracted data from all included publications using a data charting form. A second author independently extracted data from approximately one-third of the publications. Data were entered into Microsoft Excel sheets and cleaned for analysis. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were pooled (where possible) using a random-effects DerSimonian-Laird model in STATA. RESULTS: A total of 3680 publications were screened by title and abstract, and 109 publications were fully screened; 45 publications were included. The pooled drug-related SMR was 27.07 (95%CI 13.32- 55.02; I 2 = 93.99%) for the first two weeks (4 studies), 10.17 (95%CI 3.74-27.66; I 2 = 83.83%) for the first 3-4 weeks (3 studies) and 15.58 (95%CI 7.05-34.40; I 2 = 97.99%) for the first 1 year after release (3 studies) and 6.99 (95%CI 4.13-11.83; I 2 = 99.14%) for any time after release (5 studies). However, the estimates varied markedly between studies. There was considerable heterogeneity in terms of study design, study size, location, methodology and findings. Only four studies reported the use of a quality assessment checklist/technique. CONCLUSIONS: This scoping review found an increased risk of drug-related death after release from prison, particularly during the first two weeks after release, though drug-related mortality risk remained elevated for the first year among former prisoners. Evidence synthesis was limited as only a small number of studies were suitable for pooled analyses for SMRs due to inconsistencies in study design and methodology.

The mental health of all children in contact with social services: a population-wide record-linkage study in Northern Ireland.

AIMS: Children in contact with social services are at high risk for mental ill health, but it is not known what proportion of the child population has contact with social services or how risk varies within this group compared to unexposed peers. We aim to quantify the extent and nature of contact with social services within the child population in Northern Ireland (NI) and the association with mental ill health. We also examine which social care experiences identify those most at risk. METHODS: This is a population-based record-linkage study of 497,269 children (aged under 18 years) alive and resident in NI in 2015 using routinely collected health and social care data. Exposure was categorized as (1) no contact, (2) referred but assessed as not in need (NIN), (3) child in need (CIN) and (4) child in care (CIC). Multilevel logistic regression analyses estimated odds ratios (ORs) for mental ill health indicated by receipt of psychotropic medication (antidepressants, anxiolytics, antipsychotics and hypnotics), psychiatric hospital admission and hospital-presenting self-harm or ideation. RESULTS: Over one in six children (17.2%, n = 85,792) were currently or previously in contact with social services, and almost one child in every 20 (4.8%, n = 23,975) had contact in 2015. Likelihood of any mental ill health outcome increased incrementally with the level of contact with social services relative to unexposed peers: NIN (OR 5.90 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.10-6.83]), CIN (OR 5.99 [95% CI 5.50-6.53]) and CIC (OR 12.60 [95% CI 10.63-14.95]). All tiers of contact, number of referrals, number of care episodes and placement type were strongly associated with the likelihood of mental ill health. CONCLUSION: Children who have contact with social services account for a large and disproportionate amount of mental ill health in the child population. Likelihood of poor mental health across indicators is highest in care experienced children but also extends to the much larger population of children in contact with social services but never in care. Findings suggest a need for targeted mental health screening and enhanced support for all children in contact with social services.

Mortality risk following self-harm in young people: a population cohort study using the Northern Ireland Registry of Self-Harm.

BACKGROUND: Self-harm is a recognised predictor of suicide and is most common in those aged under 25 years. The aims of this study were to describe the characteristics of young people who present with self-harm; quantify the risk of suicide and other causes of death during follow up, and to identify factors associated with mortality risk. METHODS: The Northern Ireland Registry of Self-Harm (NIRSH) is a national registry capturing complete data on all presentations made to the 12 Emergency Departments (EDs) in Northern Ireland (NI). Data relating to self-harm presentations registered in the NIRSH between 2012 and 2015 were linked to primary care registrations and death records up until 31st December 2018. Logistic regression was employed to examine the factors associated with self-harm. Cox regression was used to estimate mortality risk following self-harm and explore the associated risk factors. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 390,740 individuals aged 10-24 years registered with a General Practitioner (GP) in NI. During follow-up, 4,450 individuals presented with self-harm. Rates of self-harm were highest in females, those aged 20-24 years (ORadj  = 3.53, 95% CI 3.28-3.80, p < .001), and in the most deprived areas (ORadj  = 2.71, 95% CI 2.45-2.99, p < .001). Thirty five individuals who presented with self-harm died by suicide, accounting for 23% of all suicide deaths in the cohort. Suicide risk was increased 19-fold in those who presented with self-harm after adjustment for age, sex and area-level factors (HRadj  = 19.00, 95% CI 12.80-28.21, p < .001). Increased suicide risk was observed in males (HRadj  = 2.04, 95% CI 0.99-4.23, p = .05) and those using more violent methods of self-injury (HRadj  = 3.89, 95% CI 1.65-9.13, p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Young people who self-harm are at a significantly greater risk of suicide. Almost a quarter of young people who died by suicide in NI had presented to EDs with self-harm, highlighting that the ED may provide a nodal point of intervention among a typically hard to identify and reach population.

Maternal and child outcomes for pregnant women with pre-existing multiple long-term conditions: protocol for an observational study in the UK.

INTRODUCTION: One in five pregnant women has multiple pre-existing long-term conditions in the UK. Studies have shown that maternal multiple long-term conditions are associated with adverse outcomes. This observational study aims to compare maternal and child outcomes for pregnant women with multiple long-term conditions to those without multiple long-term conditions (0 or 1 long-term conditions). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Pregnant women aged 15-49 years old with a conception date between 2000 and 2019 in the UK will be included with follow-up till 2019. The data source will be routine health records from all four UK nations (Clinical Practice Research Datalink (England), Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (Wales), Scotland routine health records and Northern Ireland Maternity System) and the Born in Bradford birth cohort. The exposure of two or more pre-existing, long-term physical or mental health conditions will be defined from a list of health conditions predetermined by women and clinicians. The association of maternal multiple long-term conditions with (a) antenatal, (b) peripartum, (c) postnatal and long-term and (d) mental health outcomes, for both women and their children will be examined. Outcomes of interest will be guided by a core outcome set. Comparisons will be made between pregnant women with and without multiple long-term conditions using modified Poisson and Cox regression. Generalised estimating equation will account for the clustering effect of women who had more than one pregnancy episode. Where appropriate, multiple imputation with chained equation will be used for missing data. Federated analysis will be conducted for each dataset and results will be pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Approval has been obtained from the respective data sources in each UK nation. Study findings will be submitted for publications in peer-reviewed journals and presented at key conferences.

Polypharmacy during pregnancy and associated risk factors: a retrospective analysis of 577 medication exposures among 1.5 million pregnancies in the UK, 2000-2019.

BACKGROUND: The number of medications prescribed during pregnancy has increased over the past few decades. Few studies have described the prevalence of multiple medication use among pregnant women. This study aims to describe the overall prevalence over the last two decades among all pregnant women and those with multimorbidity and to identify risk factors for polypharmacy in pregnancy. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted between 2000 and 2019 using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) pregnancy register. Prescription records for 577 medication categories were obtained. Prevalence estimates for polypharmacy (ranging from 2+ to 11+ medications) were presented along with the medications commonly prescribed individually and in pairs during the first trimester and the entire pregnancy period. Logistic regression models were performed to identify risk factors for polypharmacy. RESULTS: During the first trimester (812,354 pregnancies), the prevalence of polypharmacy ranged from 24.6% (2+ medications) to 0.1% (11+ medications). During the entire pregnancy period (774,247 pregnancies), the prevalence ranged from 58.7 to 1.4%. Broad-spectrum penicillin (6.6%), compound analgesics (4.5%) and treatment of candidiasis (4.3%) were commonly prescribed. Pairs of medication prescribed to manage different long-term conditions commonly included selective beta 2 agonists or selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors (SSRIs). Risk factors for being prescribed 2+ medications during the first trimester of pregnancy include being overweight or obese [aOR: 1.16 (1.14-1.18) and 1.55 (1.53-1.57)], belonging to an ethnic minority group [aOR: 2.40 (2.33-2.47), 1.71 (1.65-1.76), 1.41 (1.35-1.47) and 1.39 (1.30-1.49) among women from South Asian, Black, other and mixed ethnicities compared to white women] and smoking or previously smoking [aOR: 1.19 (1.18-1.20) and 1.05 (1.03-1.06)]. Higher and lower age, higher gravidity, increasing number of comorbidities and increasing level of deprivation were also associated with increased odds of polypharmacy. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of polypharmacy during pregnancy has increased over the past two decades and is particularly high in younger and older women; women with high BMI, smokers and ex-smokers; and women with multimorbidity, higher gravidity and higher levels of deprivation. Well-conducted pharmaco-epidemiological research is needed to understand the effects of multiple medication use on the developing foetus.

Adverse events following first and second dose COVID-19 vaccination in England, October 2020 to September 2021: a national vaccine surveillance platform self-controlled case series study.

BackgroundPost-authorisation vaccine safety surveillance is well established for reporting common adverse events of interest (AEIs) following influenza vaccines, but not for COVID-19 vaccines.AimTo estimate the incidence of AEIs presenting to primary care following COVID-19 vaccination in England, and report safety profile differences between vaccine brands.MethodsWe used a self-controlled case series design to estimate relative incidence (RI) of AEIs reported to the national sentinel network, the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub. We compared AEIs (overall and by clinical category) 7 days pre- and post-vaccination to background levels between 1 October 2020 and 12 September 2021.ResultsWithin 7,952,861 records, 781,200 individuals (9.82%) presented to general practice with 1,482,273 AEIs, 4.85% within 7 days post-vaccination. Overall, medically attended AEIs decreased post-vaccination against background levels. There was a 3-7% decrease in incidence within 7 days after both doses of Comirnaty (RI: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.91-0.94 and RI: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.94-0.98, respectively) and Vaxzevria (RI: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.98). A 20% increase was observed after one dose of Spikevax (RI: 1.20; 95% CI: 1.00-1.44). Fewer AEIs were reported as age increased. Types of AEIs, e.g. increased neurological and psychiatric conditions, varied between brands following two doses of Comirnaty (RI: 1.41; 95% CI: 1.28-1.56) and Vaxzevria (RI: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.97-1.78).ConclusionCOVID-19 vaccines are associated with a small decrease in medically attended AEI incidence. Sentinel networks could routinely report common AEI rates, contributing to reporting vaccine safety.

Protocol for development and validation of postpartum cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction model incorporating reproductive and pregnancy-related candidate predictors.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death among women. CVD is associated with reduced quality of life, significant treatment and management costs, and lost productivity. Estimating the risk of CVD would help patients at a higher risk of CVD to initiate preventive measures to reduce risk of disease. The Framingham risk score and the QRISK® score are two risk prediction models used to evaluate future CVD risk in the UK. Although the algorithms perform well in the general population, they do not take into account pregnancy complications, which are well known risk factors for CVD in women and have been highlighted in a recent umbrella review. We plan to develop a robust CVD risk prediction model to assess the additional value of pregnancy risk factors in risk prediction of CVD in women postpartum. METHODS: Using candidate predictors from QRISK®-3, the umbrella review identified from literature and from discussions with clinical experts and patient research partners, we will use time-to-event Cox proportional hazards models to develop and validate a 10-year risk prediction model for CVD postpartum using Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) primary care database for development and internal validation of the algorithm and the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank for external validation. We will then assess the value of additional candidate predictors to the QRISK®-3 in our internal and external validations. DISCUSSION: The developed risk prediction model will incorporate pregnancy-related factors which have been shown to be associated with future risk of CVD but have not been taken into account in current risk prediction models. Our study will therefore highlight the importance of incorporating pregnancy-related risk factors into risk prediction modeling for CVD postpartum.