A European-scale analysis reveals the complex roles of anthropogenic and climatic factors in driving the initiation of large wildfires.

Analysing wildfire initiation patterns and identifying their primary drivers is essential for the development of more efficient fire prevention strategies. However, such analyses have traditionally been conducted at local or national scales, hindering cross-border comparisons and the formulation of broad-scale policy initiatives. In this study, we present an analysis of the spatial variability of wildfire initiations across Europe, focusing specifically on moderate to large fires (> 100 ha), and examining the influence of both human and climatic factors on initiation areas. We estimated drivers of fire initiation using machine learning algorithms, specifically Random Forest (RF), covering the majority of the European territory (referred to as the "ET scale"). The models were trained using data on fire initiations extracted from a satellite burned area product, comprising fires occurring from 2001 to 2019. We developed six RF models: three considering all fires larger than 100 ha, and three focused solely on the largest events (> 1000 ha). Models were developed using climatic and human predictors separately, as well as both types of predictors mixed together. We found that both climatic and mixed models demonstrated moderate predictive capacity, with AUC values ranging from 79 % to 81 %; while models based only on human variables have had poor predictive capacity (AUC of 60 %). Feature importance analysis, using Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP), allowed us to assess the primary drivers of wildfire initiations across the European Territory. Aridity and evapotranspiration had the strongest effect on fire initiation. Among human variables, population density and aging had considerable effects on fire initiation, the former with a strong effect in mixed models estimating large fires, while the latter had a more important role in the prediction of very large fires. Distance to roads and forest-agriculture interfaces were also relevant in some initiation models. A better understanding of drivers of main fire events should help designing European forest fire management strategies, particularly in the light of growing importance of climate change, as it would affect both fire severity and areas at risk. Factors of fire initiation should also be part of a comprehensive approach for fire risk assessment, reduction and adaption, contributing to more effective wildfire management and mitigation across the continent.

Prevalencia y pronóstico de la lepra en Pinar del Río / Prevalence and prognosis of leprosy in Pinar del Rio

Introducción: la lepra es una enfermedad infecciosa crónica, granulomatosa, transmisible, poco contagiosa, causada por el bacilo Mycobacterium leprae, que afecta principalmente la piel, los nervios periféricos, la mucosa de las vías respiratorias superiores, los ojos y otras estructuras. Objetivo: estimar la prevalencia real a partir del cálculo de la prevalencia oculta y el pronóstico de la lepra en Pinar del Río para el 2013. Material y método: se realizó un estudio observacional descriptivo de carácter prospectivo, para la obtención de la información se revisaron las tarjetas de declaración obligatoria y las encuestas epidemiológicas de los casos de lepra. Se calcularon diferentes indicadores: tasa de prevalencia de lepra, la prevalencia oculta y el pronóstico de la enfermedad por el método de alisamiento exponencial. Resultados: la prevalencia de la lepra en la provincia en los últimos años tiene una tendencia al descenso, existiendo una diferencia entre la prevalencia conocida y la prevalencia real, al incrementarse esta última con la sumatoria de la prevalencia oculta que fue de 5 casos, con un pronóstico para la enfermedad para el 2013, similar al año anterior. Conclusión: el estudios reveló que aunque la lepra no constituye un problema de salud en la provincia, existen brechas en el sistema de vigilancia, que se identifican con el calculo del estimado de la prevalecía oculta que representa el número de casos de lepra, que no se diagnosticaron en la provincia en los últimos cinco años, lo que influirá en los indicadores operacionales y epidemiológicos del programa de lepra.

Introduction: leprosy is a chronic, mildly contagious granulomatous disease caused by the bacillus Mycobacterium leprae, affecting chiefly the skin, the peripheral nerves, the mucosa of the upper respiratory tracts, the eyes and other structures. Objective: to estimate the real prevalence by the calculation of the hidden prevalence and the prognosis of leprosy in Pinar del Río for the year 2013. Material and method: an observational descriptive study of prospective character was carried out; for obtaining the information, compulsory declaration cards and the epidemiological surveys of the leprosy cases were reviewed. Several indicators were calculated: leprosy prevalence rate, hidden prevalence, and the prognosis of the disease by the method of exponential smoothing. Results: in the last years, the prevalence of leprosy in P. Rio has a tendency towards decrease, existing a difference between the known prevalence and the real prevalence, on the increase of the latter to the sum of the hidden prevalence of 5 cases, with a forecast in the disease for 2013 similar to the previous year. Conclusion: the study revealed that although leprosy does not constitute a health problem in the Province, there are gaps in the surveillance system, identified after calculation of the estimate of hidden prevalence representing the number of leprosy cases, not diagnosed in the Province in the last five years, which will have an influence in the operational and epidemiological indicators of the leprosy program.

Prevalencia y pronóstico de la lepra en Pinar del Río

La lepra es una enfermedad infecciosa crónica, granulomatosa, transmisible, poco contagiosa, causada por el bacilo Mycobacterium leprae, que afecta principalmente la piel, los nervios periféricos, la mucosa de las vías respiratorias superiores, los ojos y otras estructuras. El objetivo fue estimar la prevalencia real a partir del cálculo de la prevalencia oculta y el pronóstico de la lepra en Pinar del Río para el 2013. Se realizó un estudio observacional descriptivo de carácter prospectivo, para la obtención de la información se revisaron las tarjetas de declaración obligatoria y las encuestas epidemiológicas de los casos de lepra. Se calcularon diferentes indicadores: tasa de prevalencia de lepra, la prevalencia oculta y el pronóstico de la enfermedad por el método de alisamiento exponencial. La prevalencia de la lepra en la provincia en los últimos años tiene una tendencia al descenso, existiendo una diferencia entre la prevalencia conocida y la prevalencia real, al incrementarse esta última con la sumatoria de la prevalencia oculta que fue de 5 casos, con un pronóstico para la enfermedad para el 2013, similar al año anterior. El estudios reveló que aunque la lepra no constituye un problema de salud en la provincia, existen brechas en el sistema de vigilancia, que se identifican con el calculo del estimado de la prevalecía oculta que representa el número de casos de lepra, que no se diagnosticaron en la provincia en los últimos cinco años, lo que influirá en los indicadores operacionales y epidemiológicos del programa de lepra(AU)

Leprosy is a chronic, mildly contagious granulomatous disease caused by the bacillus Mycobacterium leprae, affecting chiefly the skin, the peripheral nerves, the mucosa of the upper respiratory tracts, the eyes and other structures.Objective: to estimate the real prevalence by the calculation of the hidden prevalence and the prognosis of leprosy in Pinar del Río for the year 2013. An observational descriptive study of prospective character was carried out; for obtaining the information, compulsory declaration cards and the epidemiological surveys of the leprosy cases were reviewed. Several indicators were calculated: leprosy prevalence rate, hidden prevalence, and the prognosis of the disease by the method of exponential smoothing. In the last years, the prevalence of leprosy in P. Rio has a tendency towards decrease, existing a difference between the known prevalence and the real prevalence, on the increase of the latter to the sum of the hidden prevalence of 5 cases, with a forecast in the disease for 2013 similar to the previous year. The study revealed that although leprosy does not constitute a health problem in the Province, there are gaps in the surveillance system, identified after calculation of the estimate of hidden prevalence representing the number of leprosy cases, not diagnosed in the Province in the last five years, which will have an influence in the operational and epidemiological indicators of the leprosy program(AU)