Monitoring Influenza C and D Viruses in Patients With Respiratory Diseases in Japan, January 2018 to March 2023.

BACKGROUND: Influenza viruses can cause zoonotic infections that pose public health risks. Surveillance of influenza A and B viruses is conducted globally; however, information on influenza C and D viruses is limited. Longitudinal monitoring of influenza C virus in humans has been conducted in several countries, but there has been no long-term monitoring of influenza D virus in humans. The public health risks associated with the influenza D virus therefore remain unknown. METHODS: We established a duplex real-time RT-PCR to detect influenza C and D viruses and analyzed respiratory specimens collected from 2144 patients in Japan with respiratory diseases between January 2018 and March 2023. We isolated viruses and conducted hemagglutination inhibition tests to examine antigenicity and focus reduction assays to determine susceptibility to the cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitor baloxavir marboxil. RESULTS: We detected three influenza C viruses belonging to the C/Kanagawa- or C/Sao Paulo-lineages, which recently circulated globally. None of the specimens was positive for the influenza D virus. The C/Yokohama/1/2022 strain, isolated from the specimen with the highest viral RNA load and belonging to the C/Kanagawa-lineage, showed similar antigenicity to the reference C/Kanagawa-lineage strain and was susceptible to baloxavir. CONCLUSIONS: Our duplex real-time RT-PCR is useful for the simultaneous detection of influenza C and D viruses from the same specimen. Adding the influenza D virus to the monitoring of the influenza C virus would help in assessing the public health risks posed by this virus.

Increased risk of rhinovirus infection in children during the coronavirus disease-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was first detected in Japan in January 2020 and has spread throughout the country. Previous studies have reported that viral interference among influenza virus, rhinovirus, and other respiratory viruses can affect viral infections at the host and population level. METHODS: To investigate the impact of COVID-19 on influenza and other respiratory virus infections, we analyzed clinical specimens collected from 2244 patients in Japan with respiratory diseases between January 2018 and September 2020. RESULTS: The frequency of influenza and other respiratory viruses (coxsackievirus A and B; echovirus; enterovirus; human coronavirus 229E, HKU1, NL63, and OC43; human metapneumovirus; human parainfluenza virus 1, 2, 3, and 4; human parechovirus; human respiratory syncytial virus; human adenovirus; human bocavirus; human parvovirus B19; herpes simplex virus type 1; and varicella-zoster virus) was appreciably reduced among all patients during the COVID-19 pandemic except for that of rhinovirus in children younger than 10 years, which was appreciably increased. COVID-19 has not spread among this age group, suggesting an increased risk of rhinovirus infection in children. CONCLUSIONS: Rhinovirus infections should be continuously monitored to understand their increased risk during the COVID-19 pandemic and viral interference with SARS-CoV-2.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of influenza vaccination during pregnancy in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women and infants are known as high risk groups for influenza. WHO recommend pregnant women be vaccinated with inactivated influenza vaccine. In Japan, some municipalities started to give subsidy to encourage pregnant women to receive a shot on their own accord, which has made the introduction of seasonal antepartum maternal vaccination program (AMVP) into the routine vaccination list a current topic in health policy and has raised the need to evaluate the value for money of such possibility. METHODS: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate the efficiency of conducting AMVP in Japan. A decision tree model was adopted taking into consideration the duration of single-year vaccine effectiveness for infants and for mothers. The program targeted pregnant women aged 20-49 years old at or over 12 weeks gestation during October 1 through March 30. Estimated probabilities of treatments received due to influenza for pregnant/postpartum women or their infants varied by calendar time, vaccination status, and/or gestational age. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) compared with current no-AMVP from societal perspective was calculated. Transition probabilities, utility weights to estimate quality-adjusted life year (QALY), and disease treatment costs were either calculated or extracted from literature. Costs per vaccination was assumed at ¥3,529/US$32.1. RESULTS: AMVP reduces disease treatment costs, while the reduction cannot offset the vaccination cost. Incremental QALYs were at 0.00009, among them 84.2% were from infants. ICER was ¥7,779,356/US$70,721 per QALY gained. One-way sensitivity analyses revealed that vaccine effectiveness for infant and costs per shot were the two main key variables affecting the ICER. CONCLUSION: We found that vaccinating pregnant women with influenza vaccine to prevent unvaccinated infants and pregnant/postpartum women from influenza-associated disease in Japan can be cost-effective from societal perspective, under the WHO-suggested "cost-effective" criteria (1-3 times of GDP).

Assessing frontline HIV service provider efficiency using data envelopment analysis: a case study of Philippine social hygiene clinics (SHCs).

BACKGROUND: Globally, local and frontline HIV service delivery units have been deployed to halt the HIV epidemic. However, with the limited resources, there is a need to understand how these units can deliver their optimum outputs/outcomes efficiently given the inputs. This study aims to determine the efficiency of the social hygiene clinics (SHC) in the Philippines as well as to determine the association of the meta-predictor to the efficiencies. METHODS: In determining efficiency, we used the variables from two data sources namely the 2012 Philippine HIV Costing study and 2011 Integrated HIV Behavioral and Serologic Surveillance, as inputs and outputs, respectively. Various data management protocols and initial assumptions in data matching, imputation and variable selection, were used to create the final dataset with 9 SHCs. We used data envelopment analysis (DEA) to analyse the efficiency, while variations in efficiencies were analysed using Tobit regression with area-specific meta-predictors. RESULTS: There were potentially inefficient use of limited resources among sampled SHC in both aggregate and key populations. Tobit regression results indicated that income was positively associated with efficiency, while HIV prevalence was negatively associated with the efficiency variations among the SHCs. CONCLUSIONS: We were able to determine the inefficiently performing SHCs in the Philippines. Though currently inefficient, these SHCs may adjust their inputs and outputs to become efficient in the future. While there were indications of income and HIV prevalence to be associated with the efficiency variations, the results of this case study may only be limited in generalisability, thus further studies are warranted.

Cost-effectiveness of Recombinant Zoster Vaccine (RZV) and Varicella Vaccine Live (VVL) against herpes zoster and post-herpetic neuralgia among adults aged 65 and over in Japan.

BACKGROUND: The approval of the extended use of 1-dose varicella vaccine (VVL) in adults aged 50 and older against herpes zoster (HZ) in 2016 and the 2-dose recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) in 2018 raised the need to evaluate the value for money between these two vaccines. METHODS: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis with Markov modelling to evaluate the efficiency of the immunisation programmes from payer's perspective. Eight strategies with different ages to receive VVL or RZV were set, namely: 65-84 year old (y.o.), 70-84 y.o., 75-84 y.o., and 80-84 y.o. VVL- or RZV-strategy. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) compared with curative care scenario were calculated. The health statuses following the target cohort were as follows: acute HZ followed by recovery, post-herpetic neuralgia followed by recovery, post HZ/PHN, recurrence of HZ, and general death. RESULTS: At the vaccination cost ¥8000 (US$73) for 1-dose ZVL and ¥30,000 (US$273) for 2-dose RZV, ICERs ranged from ¥2,633,587/US$23,942 (age 80-84 y.o.) to ¥3,434,267 or US$31,221 (age 65-84 y.o.)/QALY gained for VVL-strategies; from ¥5,262,227 or US$47,838 (age 80-84 y.o.) to ¥6,278,557 or US$57,078/QALY gained (age 65-84 y.o.) for RZV-strategies. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves derived from probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that if the cost-effective threshold was at ¥3,000,000 or US$27,273/QALY, the acceptability was 90.7% and 8.8% for 65-84 VVL-strategy and 65-84 RZV-strategy, respectively; if at ¥5,000,000 or US$45,455/QALY, 56.2% and 43.8%, and if at ¥10,000,000 or US$90,909/QALY 11.9% and 88.1%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Vaccinating individuals aged 65-84 y.o., 70-84 y.o., 75-84 y.o., 80-84 y.o. with VVL or RZV to prevent HZ-associated disease in Japan can be cost-effective from payer's perspective, with vaccination costs at ¥8,000 per shot for VVL, ¥30,000 for 2-dose RZV. While the results suggesting that only 65-84 VVL-strategy and 65-84 RZV strategy should be considered when introducing HZ immunisation programme. The optimal strategy varies depending on the willingness-to-pay threshold.

Predominant Detection of the Subgroup A2b Human Metapneumovirus Strain with a 111-Nucleotide Duplication in the G gene in Yokohama City, Japan in 2018.

Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) has been a major causative agent of acute respiratory infections in humans. Recently, two types of variant A2b subtype HMPV strains possessing a 111- or 180-nucleotide duplication (nt-dup) in the G gene (HMPV A2b180nt-dup and HMPV A2b111nt-dup, respectively) were detected in Japan, Spain, Vietnam, and China. Our surveillance for infectious agents in Yokohama City, Japan revealed that the HMPV A2b111nt-dup strain became predominant in Yokohama City in 2018. In contrast, no classic HMPV A2b strain was detected after 2017. These data indicate a beneficial role of the 111nt-dup in the G gene for the transmission of HMPV.

Genetic and antigenic characterisation of influenza A(H3N2) viruses isolated in Yokohama during the 2016/17 and 2017/18 influenza seasons.

BACKGROUND: Influenza A(H3N2) virus rapidly evolves to evade human immune responses, resulting in changes in the antigenicity of haemagglutinin (HA). Therefore, continuous genetic and antigenic analyses of A(H3N2) virus are necessary to detect antigenic mutants as quickly as possible. AIM: We attempted to phylogenetically and antigenically capture the epidemic trend of A(H3N2) virus infection in Yokohama, Japan during the 2016/17 and 2017/18 influenza seasons. METHODS: We determined the HA sequences of A(H3N2) viruses detected in Yokohama, Japan during the 2016/17 and 2017/18 influenza seasons to identify amino acid substitutions and the loss or gain of potential N-glycosylation sites in HA, both of which potentially affect the antigenicity of HA. We also examined the antigenicity of isolates using ferret antisera obtained from experimentally infected ferrets. RESULTS: Influenza A(H3N2) viruses belonging to six clades (clades 3C.2A1, 3C.2A1a, 3C.2A1b, 3C.2A2, 3C.2A3 and 3C.2A4) were detected during the 2016/17 influenza season, whereas viruses belonging to two clades (clades 3C.2A1b and 3C.2A2) dominated during the 2017/18 influenza season. The isolates in clades 3C.2A1a and 3C.2A3 lost one N-linked glycosylation site in HA relative to other clades. Antigenic analysis revealed antigenic differences among clades, especially clade 3C.2A2 and 3C.2A4 viruses, which showed distinct antigenic differences from each other and from other clades in the antigenic map. CONCLUSION: Multiple clades, some of which differed antigenically from others, co-circulated in Yokohama, Japan during the 2016/17 and 2017/18 influenza seasons.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of drugs for osteoporosis treatment in elderly Japanese women at high risk of fragility fractures: comparison of denosumab and weekly alendronate.

This study's purpose was to clarify the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis treatment. Denosumab treatment was cost-effective compared with alendronate treatment for elderly Japanese women at high risk of fragility fractures. Denosumab treatment might be cost-effective for patients with lower bone mineral density. PURPOSE: In Japan's super-aged society, the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis are a critical issue with implications for the medical economy. This study's purpose was to clarify the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis treatment with denosumab versus weekly alendronate for elderly Japanese women at high risk of fragility fractures. METHODS: A Markov model was used for simulation analysis. The modeled population was 75-year-old Japanese women with a bone mineral density (BMD) of 65% of the young adult mean (YAM) (T-score, - 2.87) and a history of previous vertebral body fracture. The simulation model was repeated until patient age reached 100 years or death. Analysis was performed from the societal perspective. Costs and epidemiological data were derived from previous studies. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated from the simulation. We compared the ICER with willingness-to-pay. Additional analyses were performed with different combinations of age and BMD. Sensitivity analysis verified the robustness of the analysis. RESULTS: For the modeled population, the ICER of denosumab versus alendronate treatment was estimated at US$40,241/quality-adjusted life year (QALY). The ICER of denosumab for 80-year-old women whose BMD was 60% of YAM was estimated at US$22,469/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Assuming willingness-to-pay as US$50,000/QALY, denosumab treatment for 75-year-old Japanese women with a BMD of 65% of YAM and a history of previous vertebral body fracture was cost-effective compared with alendronate treatment. Among over 75 years of age, denosumab treatment might be more cost-effective than alendronate for patients with a BMD of 65% of YAM or lower.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of pertussis vaccination during pregnancy in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Both re-emergence of pertussis outbreak among adolescents/adults and recent approval of the extended use of DTaP vaccine for boosting adolescents/adults against pertussis in Japan, have raised the possibility of using aP-containing vaccine in pregnant women to protect neonates and unvaccinated infants. There is a need, therefore, to evaluate the value for money of such possibility. METHODS: We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of conducting antepartum maternal vaccination (AMV) strategy in Japan. Considering the duration of vaccine effectiveness for infant (single year) and for mother (multiple years), the decision tree model and Markov model was adapted for infant and mother, respectively. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) compared with current no AMV strategy from societal perspective were calculated. The transition probabilities, utility weights to estimate quality-adjusted life year (QALY), and disease treatment costs were either calculated or extracted from literature. Costs per vaccination was assumed at ¥6000/US$54.5. Markov model for mothers with one-year cycle runs up to year four after vaccination, based on the waning of vaccine effectiveness. Infant who survived from pertussis was assumed to live until to his/her life expectancy. RESULTS: AMV strategy reduces disease treatment costs, while the reduction cannot offset the vaccination cost. Incremental QALYs were at 0.0002802, among them 79.5% were from infants, and others from mothers. ICER was ¥9,149,317/US$83,176 per QALY gained. One-way sensitivity analyses identified that the incidence rate and costs per shot were the two main key variables to impact the ICER. CONCLUSION: We found that vaccinating pregnant women with aP-containing vaccine to prevent neonatal and unvaccinated infants from pertussis-associated disease in Japan can be cost-effective from societal perspective, under the WHO-suggested "cost-effective" criteria (1 to 3 times of GDP). Pertussis is expected be designated as a notifiable disease in 2018, re-analysis should be conducted when straightforward incidence data is available.

Mass Spectrometric Analysis of Synthetic Organic Pigments.

Though synthetic organic colorants are used in various applications nowadays, there is the concern that impurities by-produced during the manufacturing and degradation products in some of these colorants are persistent organic pollutants and carcinogens. Thus, it is important to identify the synthetic organic colorants in various products, such as commercial paints, ink, cosmetics, food, textile, and plastics. Dyes, which are soluble in water and other solvents, could be analyzed by chromatographic methods. In contrast, it is difficult to analyze synthetic organic pigments by these methods because of their insolubility. This review is an overview of mass spectrometric analysis of synthetic organic pigments by various ionization methods. We highlight a recent study of textile samples by atmospheric pressure solid analysis probe MS. Furthermore, the mass spectral features of synthetic organic pigments and their separation from other components such as paint media and plasticizers are discussed.

A novel 111-nucleotide duplication in the G gene of human metapneumovirus.

In 2017, novel human metapneumovirus (HMPV) A2b subgroup strains with a 111-nucleotide duplication in the G gene was detected by the present team. These strains were related to previously identified HMPV A2b strains with a 180-nucleotide duplication; however, they appeared to be different strains, produced by an independent duplication event. The recent evolution of HMPV suggests that careful monitoring of this virus is required.

Cost-effectiveness of varicella vaccine against herpes zoster and post-herpetic neuralgia for elderly in Japan.

BACKGROUND: The extended use of varicella vaccine in adults aged 50 and older against herpes zoster (HZ) was recently approved in Japan, which has raised the need to evaluate its value for money. METHODS: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis with Markov modelling to evaluate the efficiency of varicella vaccine immunisation programme for the elderly in Japan. Four strategies with different ages to receive a shot of vaccine were set, namely: (1) 65-84, (2) 70-84, (3) 75-84 and (4) 80-84years old (y.o.). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) compared with no programme from societal perspective were calculated. The health statuses following the target cohort are as follows: without any HZ-related disease, acute HZ followed by recovery, post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) followed by recovery, post HZ/PHN, and general death. The transition probabilities, utility weights to estimate quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and disease treatment costs were either calculated or cited from literature. Costs of per course of vaccination were assumed at ¥10,000 (US$91). The model with one-year cycle runs until the surviving individual reached 100 y.o. RESULTS: ICERs ranged from ¥2,812,000/US$25,680 to ¥3,644,000/US$33,279 per QALY gained, with 65-84 y.o. strategy having the lowest ICER and 80-84 y.o. strategy the highest. None of the alternatives was strongly dominated by the other, while 80-84 y.o. and 70-84 y.o. strategy were extendedly dominated by 65-84 y.o. STRATEGY: Probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that the probabilities that ICER is under ¥5,000,000/US$45,662 per QALY gained was at 100% for 65-84 y.o., 70-84 y.o., 75-84 y.o. strategy, respectively, and at 98.4% for 80-84 y.o. CONCLUSION: We found that vaccinating individuals aged 65-84, 70-84, 75-84, and 80-84 with varicella vaccine to prevent HZ-associated disease in Japan can be cost-effective from societal perspective, with 65-84 y.o. strategy as the optimal alternative. Results are supported by one-way sensitivity analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

Economic evaluation of routine infant rotavirus immunisation program in Japan.

Two rotavirus vaccines are currently available in Japan. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of routine infant rotavirus immunisation program without defining which vaccine to be evaluated, which reflects the current deliberation at the Health Science Council in charge of Immunisation and Vaccine established by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan. Three ICERs were estimated, one from payers' perspective and 2 from societal perspective depending on the scenarios to uptake vaccines. The health statuses following the birth cohort were as follows: not infected by rotavirus, asymptomatic infection, outpatients after infection, hospitalised after infection, developing encephalitis/encephalopathy followed by recovery, sequelae, and death. Costs of per course of vaccination was ¥30,000 (US$283; US$1 = ¥106). The model runs for 60 months with one month cycle. From payers' perspective, estimated ICERs were ¥6,877,000 (US$64,877) per QALY. From societal perspective, immunisation program turns out to be cost-saving for 75% simultaneous vaccination scenario, while it is at ¥337,000 (US$3,179) per QALY gained with vaccine alone scenario. The probability of rotavirus immunisation program to be under ¥5,000,000 (US$47,170) per QALY was at 19.8%, 40.7%, and 75.6% when costs per course of vaccination were set at ¥30,000 (US$283), ¥25,000 (US$236), and ¥20,000 (US$189), respectively. Rotavirus immunisation program has a potential to be cost-effective from payers' perspective and even cost-saving from societal perspective in Japan, however, caution should be taken with regard to the interpretation of the results as cost-effectiveness is critically dependent on vaccination costs.

Economic Evaluation of Immunisation Programme of 23-Valent Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine and the Inclusion of 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in the List for Single-Dose Subsidy to the Elderly in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Currently in Japan, both 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV-23) and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-13) are available for the elderly for the prevention of S. pneumoniae-related diseases. PPSV-23 was approved in 1988, while the extended use of PCV-13 was approved for adults aged 65 and older in June 2014. Despite these two vaccines being available, the recently launched national immunisation programme for the elderly only subsidised PPSV-23. The framework of the current immunisation programme lasts for five years. The elderly population eligible for the subsidised PPSV-23 shot for the 1st year are those aged 65, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 95 and ≥ 100. While from the 2nd year to the 5th year, those who will age 65, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 95 and 100 will receive the same subsidised shot. METHODS: We performed economic evaluations to (1) evaluate the efficiency of alternative strategies of PPSV-23 single-dose immunisation programme, and (2) investigate the efficiency of PCV-13 inclusion in the list for single-dose pneumococcal vaccine immunisation programme. Three alternative strategies were created in this study, namely: (1) current PPSV-23 strategy, (2) 65 to 80 (as "65-80 PPSV-23 strategy"), and (3) 65 and older (as "≥ 65 PPSV-23 strategy"). We constructed a Markov model depicting the S. pneumoniae-related disease course pathways. The transition probabilities, utility weights to estimate quality adjusted life year (QALY) and disease treatment costs were either calculated or cited from literature. Cost of per shot of vaccine was ¥ 8,116 (US$74; US$1 = ¥ 110) for PPSV-23 and ¥ 10,776 (US$98) for PCV-13. The model runs for 15 years with one year cycle after immunisation. Discounting was at 3%. RESULTS: Compared to current PPSV-23 strategy, 65-80 PPSV-23 strategy cost less but gained less, while the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of ≥ 65 PPSV-23 strategy was ¥ 5,025,000 (US$45,682) per QALY gained. PCV-13 inclusion into the list for single-dose subsidy has an ICER of ¥ 377,000 (US$3,427) per QALY gained regardless of the PCV-13 diffusion level. These ICERs were found to be cost-effective since they are lower than the suggested criterion by WHO of three times GDP (¥ 11,000,000 or US$113,636 per QALY gained), which is the benchmark used in judging the cost-effectiveness of an immunisation programmne. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that switching current PPSV-23 strategy to ≥ 65 PPSV-23 strategy or including PCV-13 into the list for single-dose subsidy to the elderly in Japan has value for money.

Evaluation of health-related quality of life for hypothesized medical states associated with cervical cancer.

BACKGROUND: When evaluating health-economics for cervical cancer prevention policies in Japan, it is important to use Japanese value settings. This study aimed to obtain preference-based measures (preference measures) for hypothesized health states among healthy Japanese women, and to examine differences between the EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) and standard gamble (SG) instruments. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The investigation was performed among female students at a nursing university. We used written hypothetical scenarios describing three grades of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and eight stages of cervical cancer, both at diagnosis and after medical intervention. Preference measures were evaluated using both EQ-5D and SG. RESULTS: We received responses from 136 women. The mean number of respondents per stage was 24.6 (SD: 2.7). At diagnosis, average EQ-5D scores for CIN1, CIN2, CIN3, IA1, IA2, IB1, IB2, IIA, IIB, III, and IV stages were 0.84 (0.14), 0.78 (0.12), 0.73 (0.10), 0.78 (0.12), 0.72 (0.12), 0.63 (0.13), 0.64 (0.12), 0.68 (0.08), 0.62 (0.13), 0.55 (0.21), and 0.18 (0.24), respectively. Using one-way analysis of variance with the Tukey-Kramer method for multiple comparisons (each stage vs. CIN1), we found significant differences for IB1 and more advanced stages (p<0.05). After medical intervention, corresponding EQ-5D scores were 0.84 (0.12), 0.81 (0.12), 0.84 (0.12), 0.80 (0.15), 0.78 (0.11), 0.64 (0.15), 0.63 (0.15), 0.71 (0.15), 0.50 (0.17), 0.52 (0.17), 0.21 (0.28). The multiple comparisons identified significant differences for IB1 and more advanced stages, excepting IIA (p<0.05). SG evaluations were more variable and relatively higher than EQ-5D evaluations. CONCLUSIONS: We obtained preference measures for three grades of CIN1-3 and eight stages of cervical cancer. In combination with appropriate sensitivity analyses, these preference measures will provide a basis for an economic evaluation of cervical cancer prevention in Japan. We suggest that EQ-5D is appropriate for cost-utility analysis of this topic.

Economic evaluation of vaccination programme of mumps vaccine to the birth cohort in Japan.

The most common preventative measure against mumps is vaccination with mumps vaccine. In most parts of the world, mumps vaccine is routinely delivered through live attenuated Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR) vaccine. In Japan, receiving mumps vaccine is voluntary and vaccine uptake rate is less than 30%. The introduction of mumps vaccine into routine vaccination schedule has become one of the current topics in health policy and has raised the need to evaluate efficient ways in protecting children from mumps-related diseases in Japan. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis with Markov model and calculated incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of 11 different programmes; a single-dose programme at 12-16 months and 10 two-dose programmes with second dose uptakes at ages 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11. Our base-case analyse set the cost per shot at ¥6951 (US$72; 1US$=96.8). Results show that single-dose programme dominates status quo. On the other hand, ICERs of all 10 two-dose programmes are under ¥6,300,000 (US$65,082) per QALY from payer's perspective while it ranged from cost-saving to <¥7,000,000 (US$72,314) per QALY from societal perspective. By adopting WHO's classification that an intervention is cost-effective if ICER (in QALY) is between one and three times of GDP as a criterion, either of the vaccination programme is concluded as cost-effective from payer's or societal perspectives. Likewise, to uptake second dose at 3-5 years old is more favourable than an uptake at any other age because of lower incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

Willingness to pay for public health services in rural Central Java, Indonesia: methodological considerations when using the contingent valuation method.

In the health sectors of low- and middle-income countries, contingent valuation method (CVM) studies on willingness to pay (WTP) have been used to gather information on demand variation or financial perspectives alongside price setting, such as the introduction of user fees and valuation of quality improvements. However, WTP found in most CVM studies have only explored the preferences that consumers express through their WTP without exploring whether they are actually able to pay for it. Therefore, this study examines the issues pertaining to WTP estimation for health services using the conventional CVM. We conducted 202 household interviews in 2008, in which we asked respondents about three types of public health services in Indonesia and assessed WTP estimated by the conventional CVM as well as in the scenario of "resorting to debt" to recognize their budget constraints. We find that all the demand curves for both WTP scenarios show gaps. Furthermore, the gap for midwife services is negatively affected by household income and is larger for the poor. These results prove that CVM studies on WTP do not always reveal WTP in the latter scenario. Those findings suggest that WTP elicited by the conventional CVM is different to that from the maximum price that prevents respondents from resorting to debt as their WTP. In order to bridge this gap in the body of knowledge on this topic, studies should improve the scenarios that CVM analyses use to explore WTP. Furthermore, because valuing or pricing health services based on the results of CVM studies on WTP alone can exacerbate the inequity of access to these services, information provided by such studies requires careful interpretation when used for this purpose, especially for the poor and vulnerable sections of society.

Length of hospital stay in Japan 1971-2008: hospital ownership and cost-containment policies.

The average length of stay (LOS) is considered one of the most significant indicators of hospital management. The steep decline in the average LOS among Japanese hospitals since the 1980s is considered to be due to cost-containment policies directed at reducing LOS. Japan's hospital sector is characterised by a diversity of ownership types. We took advantage of this context to examine different hospital behaviours associated with ownership types. Analysing government data published from 1971 to 2008 for the effect of a series of cost-containment policies aimed at reducing LOS revealed distinctly different paths behind the declines in LOS between privately owned and publicly owned hospitals. In the earlier years, private hospitals focused on providing long-term care to the elderly, while in the later years, they made a choice between providing long-term care and providing acute care with reduced LOS and bonus payments. By contrast, the majority of public hospitals opted to provide acute care with reduced LOS in line with public targets.

Economic evaluation of vaccination programme of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine to the birth cohort in Japan.

Japan is now preparing to incorporate PCV-7 into the national childhood immunisation programme. Our recently published economic evaluation of using PCV-7 to the birth cohort suggests that the cost to gain one QALY is lower than the WHO's cost-effectiveness criterion for intervention. However, many countries have started to introduce PCV-13 into their national immunisation schedule replacing PCV-7 for preventing pneumococcal diseases among young children. These raise the need to appraise the 'value for money' of replacing PCV-7 with PCV-13 vaccination programme in Japan. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis with Markov model and calculated incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Our base-case analyses, which assumed both PCVs have no net indirect effect and set the cost of PCV-7/PCV-13 per shot at ¥10,000 (US$125)/¥13,000 (US$163). The results show that in Base-case A (assumed PCV-13 has no additional protection against AOM compared to PCV-7), replacing PCV-7 with PCV-13 will cost ¥37,722,901 (US$471,536) or ¥35,584,455 (US$444,850) per QALY when the caregiver's productivity loss is not included or is included, respectively. While in Base-case B (assumed PCV-13 has additional protection against AOM compared to PCV-7), ¥343,830 (US$4298) per QALY or more QALY is gained by saving money without or with caregiver's productivity loss, respectively. We also find that, in Base-case B if cost per PCV-13 shot is equal to or less than that ¥17,000, then a PCV-13 vaccination programme offered to the birth cohort in Japan is likely to be a socially acceptable option compared to the current PCV-7 vaccination programme. Furthermore, if cost per PCV-13 shot is equal to or less than ¥12,000, replacing PCV-7 with PCV-13 will save money and gain more QALYs. While in Base-case A, the replacement can only be socially acceptable if cost per PCV-13 shot is equal to or less than ¥11,000.