Amazon savannization and climate change are projected to increase dry season length and temperature extremes over Brazil.

Land use change and atmospheric composition, two drivers of climate change, can interact to affect both local and remote climate regimes. Previous works have considered the effects of greenhouse gas buildup in the atmosphere and the effects of Amazon deforestation in atmospheric general circulation models. In this study, we investigate the impacts of the Brazilian Amazon savannization and global warming in a fully coupled ocean-land-sea ice-atmosphere model simulation. We find that both savannization and global warming individually lengthen the dry season and reduce annual rainfall over large tracts of South America. The combined effects of land use change and global warming resulted in a mean annual rainfall reduction of 44% and a dry season length increase of 69%, when averaged over the Amazon basin, relative to the control run. Modulation of inland moisture transport due to savannization shows the largest signal to explain the rainfall reduction and increase in dry season length over the Amazon and Central-West. The combined effects of savannization and global warming resulted in maximum daily temperature anomalies, reaching values of up to 14 °C above the current climatic conditions over the Amazon. Also, as a consequence of both climate drivers, both soil moisture and surface runoff decrease over most of the country, suggesting cascading negative future impacts on both agriculture production and hydroelectricity generation.

Modeling of Human Rabies Cases in Brazil in Different Future Global Warming Scenarios.

Bat species have been observed to have the potential to expand their distribution in response to climate change, thereby influencing shifts in the spatial distribution and population dynamics of human rabies cases. In this study, we applied an ensemble niche modeling approach to project climatic suitability under different future global warming scenarios for human rabies cases in Brazil, and assessed the impact on the probability of emergence of new cases. We obtained notification records of human rabies cases in all Brazilian cities from January 2001 to August 2023, as reported by the State and Municipal Health Departments. The current and future climate data were sourced from a digital repository on the WorldClim website. The future bioclimatic variables provided were downscaled climate projections from CMIP6 (a global model ensemble) and extracted from the regionalized climate model HadGEM3-GC31-LL for three future socioeconomic scenarios over four periods (2021-2100). Seven statistical algorithms (MAXENT, MARS, RF, FDA, CTA, GAM, and GLM) were selected for modeling human rabies. Temperature seasonality was the bioclimatic variable with the highest relative contribution to both current and future consensus models. Future scenario modeling for human rabies indicated a trend of changes in the areas of occurrence, maintaining the current pace of global warming, population growth, socioeconomic instability, and the loss of natural areas. In Brazil, there are areas with a higher likelihood of climatic factors contributing to the emergence of cases. When assessing future scenarios, a change in the local climatic suitability is observed that may lead to a reduction or increase in cases, depending on the region.

Eficácia da ivermectina e atazanavir no tempo de recuperação dos sintomas de covid-19: uma coorte prospectiva / Effectiveness of ivermectin and atazanavir on time to resolution from covid-19 symptoms: a prospective cohort / Eficacia de ivermectina y atazanavir en el tiempo hasta lá resolución de los síntomas de covid-19: una cohorte prospectiva

Objetivo: avaliar a eficácia da Ivermectina e do Atazanavir em comparação com placebo no tempo de resolução dos sintomas e no tempo de duração da doença por COVID-19. Método: estudo observacional, de coorte prospectivo, longitudinal, descritivo e analítico com pacientes sintomáticos ambulatoriais, acompanhados por 06 meses em duas Unidades Básicas de Saúde para atendimento de COVID-19 em Teresina- Piauí, Brasil, no período de novembro a abril de 2021 identificados por amostragem aleatória 1:1:1. Foram realizados exames Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) para confirmação laboratorial da suspeita de infecção pelo novo coronavírus e avaliação sociodemográfica e clínica. Resultados: dos 87 pacientes randomizados, 62,1% (n=54) eram do sexo masculino, com média de idade de 35,1 anos, possuíam companheira (53,9%), baixa renda (50,6%), eutróficos (40,7%) e sem comorbidades de saúde (78,2%). Não houve diferença entre o tempo médio para resolução dos sintomas, que foi de 21 dias (IQR, 8-30) no grupo atazanavir, 30 dias (IQR, 5-90) no grupo ivermectina em comparação com 14 dias (IQR, 9-21) no grupo controle. No dia 180, houve resolução dos sintomas em 100% no grupo placebo, 93,9% no grupo atazanavir e 95% no grupo ivermectina. A duração mediana da doença foi de 08 dias em todos os braços do estudo. Conclusão: o tratamento com atazanavir (6 dias) e ivermectina (3 dias) não reduziu o tempo de resolução dos sintomas e nem o tempo de duração da doença entre os pacientes ambulatoriais com COVID-19 leve em comparação com o grupo placebo. Os resultados não suportam o uso de ivermectina e atazanavir para tratamento de COVID-19 leve a moderado.

Objective: to evaluate the effectiveness of Ivermectin and Atazanavir compared to placebo in the time to resolution of symptoms and duration of illness due to COVID-19. Method: observational, prospective, longitudinal, descriptive and analytical cohort study with symptomatic outpatients, followed for 06 months in two Basic Health Units for COVID-19 care in Teresina-Piauí, Brazil, from November to April 2021 identified by 1:1:1 random sampling. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests were performed for laboratory confirmation of suspected infection with the new coronavirus and sociodemographic and clinical evaluation. Results: of the 87 randomized patients, 62.1% (n=54) were male, with a mean age of 35.1 years, had a partner (53.9%), low income (50.6%), eutrophic (40.7%) and without health comorbidities (78.2%). There was no difference between the median time to resolution of symptoms, which was 21 days (IQR, 8-30) in the atazanavir group, 30 days (IQR, 5- 90) in the ivermectin group compared with 14 days (IQR, 9- 21) in the control group. At day 180, there was resolution of symptoms in 100% in the placebo group, 93.9% in the atazanavir group, and 95% in the ivermectin group. The median duration of illness was 8 days in all study arms. Conclusion: Treatment with atazanavir (6 days) and ivermectin (3 days) did not reduce the time to symptom resolution or the duration of illness among outpatients with mild COVID-19 compared to the placebo group. The results do not support the use of ivermectin and atazanavir for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19.

Objetivo: evaluar la efectividad de Ivermectina y Atazanavir en comparación con placebo en el tiempo de resolución de los síntomas y duración de la enfermedad por COVID-19. Método: estudio de cohorte observacional, prospectivo, longitudinal, descriptivo y analítico con pacientes ambulatorios sintomáticos, seguidos durante 06 meses en dos Unidades Básicas de Salud para atención de COVID-19 en Teresina-Piauí, Brasil, de noviembre a abril de 2021 identificados por 1:1:1 muestreo aleatorio. Se realizaron pruebas de reacción en cadena de la polimerasa con transcriptasa inversa (RT-PCR) para confirmación de laboratorio de sospecha de infección por el nuevo coronavirus y evaluación sociodemográfica y clínica. Resultados: de los 87 pacientes aleatorizados, 62,1% (n=54) eran del sexo masculino, con una edad media de 35,1 años, tenían pareja (53,9%), bajos ingresos (50,6%), eutróficos (40,7%) y sin comorbilidades de salud (78,2%). No hubo diferencia entre la mediana de tiempo hasta la resolución de los síntomas, que fue de 21 días (RIC, 8-30) en el grupo de atazanavir, 30 días (RIC, 5- 90) en el grupo de ivermectina en comparación con 14 días (RIC, 9 - 21) en el grupo control. En el día 180, hubo una resolución de los síntomas del 100 % en el grupo de placebo, del 93,9 % en el grupo de atazanavir y del 95 % en el grupo de ivermectina. La mediana de duración de la enfermedad fue de 8 días en todos los brazos del estudio. Conclusión: El tratamiento con atazanavir (6 días) e ivermectina (3 días) no redujo el tiempo de resolución de los síntomas ni la duración de la enfermedad entre los pacientes ambulatorios con COVID-19 leve en comparación con el grupo placebo. Los resultados no respaldan el uso de ivermectina y atazanavir para el tratamiento de la COVID-19 de leve a moderada.

Air pollution from forest burning as environmental risk for millions of inhabitants of the Brazilian Amazon: an exposure indicator for human health.

In this study, we propose an indicator of air pollution exposure to identify potential hazardous areas for human health in the Amazon and Central-West Regions of Brazil from 2010 to 2019. This indicator aggregates both concentrations and time of exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), according to the current limit recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). We used daily PM2.5 averages obtained from the Brazilian Health Integrated Environmental Information System (SISAM) to calculate the percentages of days with PM2.5 concentrations exceeding the limit of 15µg/m³ per year and per month. From 2010 to 2019, the months from August to October presented the largest areas and the highest percentages of days with unacceptable pollution concentration values, harmful to human health. These areas were concentrated in the Arc of Deforestation. Therefore, 60% of the residents of the Amazon and Central-West regions were subjected to inadequate air quality for approximately six months per year. The proposed indicator is reproducible and appropriate to monitor areas of exposure and risk for human health.

Modeling the Climatic Suitability of COVID-19 Cases in Brazil.

Studies have shown that climate may affect the distribution of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and its incidence and fatality rates. Here, we applied an ensemble niche modeling approach to project the climatic suitability of COVID-19 cases in Brazil. We estimated the cumulative incidence, mortality rate, and fatality rate of COVID-19 between 2020 and 2021. Seven statistical algorithms (MAXENT, MARS, RF, FDA, CTA, GAM, and GLM) were selected to model the climate suitability for COVID-19 cases from diverse climate data, including temperature, precipitation, and humidity. The annual temperature range and precipitation seasonality showed a relatively high contribution to the models, partially explaining the distribution of COVID-19 cases in Brazil based on the climatic suitability of the territory. We observed a high probability of climatic suitability for high incidence in the North and South regions and a high probability of mortality and fatality rates in the Midwest and Southeast regions. Despite the social, viral, and human aspects regulating COVID-19 cases and death distribution, we suggest that climate may play an important role as a co-factor in the spread of cases. In Brazil, there are regions with a high probability that climatic suitability will contribute to the high incidence and fatality rates of COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021.

Short-term association between ambient air pollution and cardio-respiratory mortality in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Several epidemiological studies have reported associations between ambient air pollution and mortality. However, relatively few studies have investigated this relationship in Brazil using individual-level data. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the short-term association between exposure to particulate matter <10 µm (PM10) and ozone (O3), and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, between 2012 and 2017. METHODS: We used a time-stratified case-crossover study design with individual-level mortality data. Our sample included 76,798 deaths from cardiovascular diseases and 36,071 deaths from respiratory diseases. Individual exposure to air pollutants was estimated by the inverse distance weighting method. We used data from seven monitoring stations for PM10 (24-hour mean), eight stations for O3 (8-hour max), 13 stations for air temperature (24-hour mean), and 12 humidity stations (24-hour mean). We estimated the mortality effects of PM10 and O3 over a 3-day lag using conditional logistic regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models. The models were adjusted for daily mean temperature and daily mean absolute humidity. Effect estimates were presented as odds ratios (OR) with their 95% confidence interval (CI) associated with a 10 µg/m3 increase in each pollutant exposure. RESULTS: No consistent associations were observed for both pollutant and mortality outcome. The cumulative OR of PM10 exposure was 1.01 (95% CI 0.99-1.02) for respiratory mortality and 1.00 (95% CI 0.99-1.01) for cardiovascular mortality. For O3 exposure, we also found no evidence of increased mortality for cardiovascular (OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00-1.01) or respiratory diseases (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.98-1.00). Our findings were similar across age and gender subgroups, and different model specifications. CONCLUSION: We found no consistent associations between the PM10 and O3 concentrations observed in our study and cardio-respiratory mortality. Future studies need to explore more refined exposure assessment methods to improve health risk estimates and the planning and evaluation of public health and environmental policies.

Heat waves and mortality in the Brazilian Amazon: Effect modification by heat wave characteristics, population subgroup, and cause of death.

BACKGROUND: The Brazilian Amazon faces overlapping socio-environmental, sanitary, and climate challenges, and is a hotspot of concern due to projected increases in temperature and in the frequency of heat waves. Understanding the effects of extreme events on health is a central issue for developing climate policies focused on the population's health. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the effects of heat waves on mortality in the Brazilian Amazon, examining effect modification according to various heat wave definitions, population subgroups, and causes of death. METHODS: We included all 32 Amazonian municipalities with more than 100,000 inhabitants. The study period was from 2000 to 2018. We obtained mortality data from the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Public Healthcare System, and meteorological data were derived from the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset. Heat waves were defined according to their intensity (90th; 92.5th; 95th; 97.5th and 99th temperature percentiles) and duration (≥2, ≥3, and ≥4 days). In each city, we used a time-stratified case-crossover study to estimate the effects of each heat wave definition on mortality, according to population subgroup and cause of death. The lagged effects of heat waves were estimated using conditional Poisson regression combined with distributed lag non-linear models. Models were adjusted for specific humidity and public holidays. Risk ratios were pooled for the Brazilian Amazon using a univariate random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: The pooled relative risks (RR) for mortality from total non-external causes varied between 1.03 (95% CI: 1.01-1.06), for the less stringent heat wave definition, and 1.18 (95% CI: 1.04-1.33) for the more stringent definition. The mortality risk rose as the heat wave intensity increased, although the increase from 2 to 3, and 3-4 days was small. Although not statistically different, our results suggest a higher mortality risk for the elderly, this was also higher for women than men, and for cardiovascular causes than for non-external or respiratory ones. CONCLUSIONS: Heat waves were associated with a higher risk of mortality from non-external causes and cardiovascular diseases. Heat wave intensity played a more important role than duration in determining this risk. Suggestive evidence indicated that the elderly and women were more vulnerable to the effects of heat waves on mortality.

Uso de Ivermectina e Atazanavir no tratamento da Covid-19: uma revisão de escopo / Use of Ivermectin and Atazanavir in the treatment of Covid-19: a scoping review / Uso de Ivermectina y Atazanavir en el tratamiento de Covid-19: una revisión de alcance

Objetivo: Examinar e mapear as evidências científicas sobre a eficácia do uso de ivermectina e atazanavir no tratamento de COVID-19. Metodologia: Scoping Review, baseado nos procedimentos recomendados pelo Instituto Joanna Briggs. Estabeleceu-se a pergunta norteadora: "Quais são as evidências científicas sobre o uso de ivermectina e atazanavir no tratamento de pacientes com sintomas leves de COVID-19?". Foram realizadas buscas em seis bases de dados nacionais e internacionais, sobre trabalhos publicados até dezembro de 2022. Dos 357 estudos encontrados, 22 foram selecionados para leitura na íntegra, resultando em uma amostra final de 11 estudos analisados. Resultados: As 11 publicações analisadas foram publicadas de 2020 a 2022 durante período pandêmico, de âmbito nacional e internacional com delineamento de estudos experimentais, do tipo ensaio clínico com randomização. Apenas 03 estudos (25%) testaram o atazanavir como intervenção conjugada a outras drogas, não evidenciando melhorias significativas em relação ao seu uso. Já no tratamento com Ivermectina, dos oito (75%) estudos que a testaram, apenas três (37,5%) recomendaram seu uso e cinco (62,5%) não suportam seu uso para tratamento de COVID-19 leve. O tempo de resolução dos sintomas variou de 8 a 10 dias nos braços tratados com ivermectina e em média 07 dias no tratamento com atazanavir. Não se detectou eventos adversos graves relacionados ao uso das duas drogas. Conclusão: As evidências que recomendavam o uso de ivermectina datam do início do período pandêmico, 2020, mas posteriormente, com a realização de ensaios clínicos robustos e controlados, novas evidências não suportam o uso de ivermectina e atazanavir no tratamento de COVID-19 leve mostrando que não houve diferença no tempo de resolução dos sintomas, na taxa de mortalidade, taxa de internação na UTI e tempo de hospitalização.

Objective: To examine and map the scientific evidence on the effectiveness of using ivermectin and atazanavir in the treatment of COVID-19. Methodology: Scoping Review, based on the procedures recommended by the Joanna Briggs Institute. The guiding question was established, "What is the scientific evidence on the use of ivermectin and atazanavir in the treatment of patients with mild symptoms of COVID-19?" Searches were conducted in six national and international databases on papers published until December 2022. Of the 357 studies found, 22 were selected for reading in full, resulting in a final sample of 11 studies analyzed. Results: The 11 publications analyzed were published from 2020 to 2022 during pandemic period, of national and international scope with experimental study design, of clinical trial type with randomization. Only 03 studies (25%) tested atazanavir as a combined intervention with other drugs, showing no significant improvements in relation to its use. As for the treatment with Ivermectin, of the eight (75%) studies that tested it, only three (37.5%) recommended its use and five (62.5%) did not support its use for treating mild COVID-19. The time to symptom resolution ranged from 8 to 10 days in the ivermectin-treated arms and on average 07 days in the atazanavir treatment. No serious adverse events related to the use of the two drugs were detected. Conclusion: evidence recommending the use of ivermectin dates back to the beginning of the pandemic period, 2020, but subsequently, with robust controlled clinical trials, new evidence does not support the use of ivermectin and atazanavir in the treatment of mild COVID-19 showing that there was no difference in time to symptom resolution, mortality rate, ICU admission rate, and length of hospital stay.

Objetivo: Examinar y mapear la evidencia científica sobre la eficacia del uso de ivermectina y atazanavir en el tratamiento de COVID-19. Metodología: Scoping Review, basada en los procedimientos recomendados por el Instituto Joanna Briggs. La pregunta guía era: "¿Cuál es la evidencia científica sobre el uso de ivermectina y atazanavir en el tratamiento de pacientes con síntomas leves de COVID-19? Se realizaron búsquedas en seis bases de datos nacionales e internacionales, en artículos publicados hasta diciembre de 2022. De los 357 estudios encontrados, se seleccionaron 22 para su lectura completa, lo que dio lugar a una muestra final de 11 estudios analizados. Resultados: Las 11 publicaciones analizadas fueron publicadas entre 2020 y 2022 durante el periodo pandémico, de ámbito nacional e internacional con diseño de estudio experimental, de tipo ensayo clínico con aleatorización. Apenas 03 estudios (25%) probaron el atazanavir como intervención combinada con otras drogas, sin evidenciar mejoras significativas en relación con su uso. En cuanto al tratamiento con Ivermectina, de los ocho (75%) estudios que la probaron, sólo tres (37,5%) recomendaron su uso y cinco (62,5%) no apoyaron su uso para tratar la COVID-19 leve. El tiempo transcurrido hasta la resolución de los síntomas osciló entre 8 y 10 días en los brazos tratados con ivermectina y una media de 07 días en el tratamiento con atazanavir. No se detectaron acontecimientos adversos graves relacionados con el uso de los dos fármacos. Conclusión: las pruebas que recomiendan el uso de ivermectina se remontan al inicio del periodo pandémico, 2020, pero posteriormente, con ensayos clínicos controlados sólidos, las nuevas pruebas no apoyan el uso de ivermectina y atazanavir en el tratamiento de la COVID-19 leve, lo que demuestra que no hubo diferencias en el tiempo hasta la resolución de los síntomas, la tasa de mortalidad, la tasa de ingreso en la UCI y la duración de la estancia hospitalaria.

Air pollution from forest burning as environmental risk for millions of inhabitants of the Brazilian Amazon: an exposure indicator for human health / Poluição do ar por queimadas florestais como risco ambiental para milhões de habitantes da Amazônia brasileira: um indicador de exposição para a saúde humana / Contaminación del aire por incendios forestales como riesgo ambiental para millones de habitantes de la Amazonía brasileña: un indicador de exposición para la salud humana

Abstract: In this study, we propose an indicator of air pollution exposure to identify potential hazardous areas for human health in the Amazon and Central-West Regions of Brazil from 2010 to 2019. This indicator aggregates both concentrations and time of exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), according to the current limit recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). We used daily PM2.5 averages obtained from the Brazilian Health Integrated Environmental Information System (SISAM) to calculate the percentages of days with PM2.5 concentrations exceeding the limit of 15µg/m³ per year and per month. From 2010 to 2019, the months from August to October presented the largest areas and the highest percentages of days with unacceptable pollution concentration values, harmful to human health. These areas were concentrated in the Arc of Deforestation. Therefore, 60% of the residents of the Amazon and Central-West regions were subjected to inadequate air quality for approximately six months per year. The proposed indicator is reproducible and appropriate to monitor areas of exposure and risk for human health.

Resumo: Este estudo propõe um indicador de exposição à poluição do ar para identificar potenciais áreas de risco para a saúde humana na região amazônica e no Centro-oeste do Brasil de 2010 a 2019. Esse indicador agrega as concentrações e o tempo de exposição à partículas finas de poluição (PM2.5), de acordo com o limite atual recomendado pela Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS). Foram utilizadas médias diárias de PM2.5 obtidas do Sistema de Informações Ambientais Integrado a Saúde (SISAM) para o cálculo dos percentuais de dias cujas concentrações ultrapassaram o limite de 15μg/m³ por ano e por mês. De 2010 a 2019, os meses de agosto a outubro apresentaram as maiores áreas e os maiores percentuais de dias com valores de concentração inaceitáveis para a saúde humana. Tais áreas estavam concentradas na região do arco do desmatamento. Além disso, 60% dos moradores da região amazônica e do Centro-oeste eram expostos a uma qualidade inadequada do ar por aproximadamente seis meses por ano. O indicador proposto é reprodutível e adequado para monitorizar as áreas de exposição e de risco para a saúde humana.

Resumen: Este estudio propone un indicador de exposición a la contaminación del aire para identificar posibles áreas de riesgo para la salud humana en la región amazónica y el Medio Oeste de Brasil de 2010 a 2019. Este indicador agrega las concentraciones y el tiempo de exposición a partículas finas de contaminación (PM2.5), de acuerdo con el límite actual recomendado por la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS). Se utilizaron los promedios diarios de PM2.5 obtenidos del Sistema Integrado de Información Ambiental en Salud (SISAM) para calcular el porcentaje de días cuyas concentraciones superaron el límite de 15μg/m³ por año y por mes. En la década de 2010 a 2019, los meses de agosto a octubre tuvieron las áreas más grandes y los porcentajes más altos de días con valores de concentración inaceptables para la salud humana. Tales áreas se concentraron en la región del arco de la deforestación. Además, el 60% de los residentes de la región amazónica y el Medio Oeste estuvieron sujetos a una calidad del aire inadecuada durante aproximadamente seis meses al año. El indicador propuesto es reproducible y adecuado para monitorizar las áreas de exposición y de riesgo para la salud humana.

Trend of morbidity and mortality indicators due to acute diarrheal disease in children under five years old in the State of Piauí (2000-2019) / Tendência de indicadores de morbimortalidade por doenças diarreicas agudas em menores de cinco anos no estado do Piauí (2000-2019)

Abstract Objectives: to analyze the trend of morbidity and mortality indicators due to acute diarrheal diseases in children under five years old in Piauí. Methods: ecological study with data from the Information Technology Department at the Public Health System. The indicators of hospitalization rate and coefficient of mortality from the disease between 2000 and 2019 were calculated. A descriptive analysis of the indicators was carried out in the studied period and by the macro-regions in the State. For trend analysis, the simple linear regression model with log-transformation was used. Trends were classified as increasing, decreasing and stable, with a significance level of 5%. Results: the average on hospitalization rate was higher in the semi-arid macro-region (36.6/1000 children under five years old) and lower in Teresina (14.9/1000 children under five years old). The mean mortality coefficients were higher in the coastal macro-region (0.98/1000 live births) and lower in Teresina (0.47/1000 live births). The indicators showed a downward trend in all analyzed locations (p<0.05). A turning point was noted from 2009, with a significant reduction in hospitalization rates in the savanna and semi-arid macro-regions. Conclusion: indicators of morbidity and mortality due to acute diarrheal diseases in children under five years old showed a downward trend in Piauí between 2000 and 2019, with differences in trends between the evaluated macro-regions.

Resumo Objetivos: analisar a tendência de indicadores de morbimortalidade por doenças diarreicas agudas em menores de cinco anos no Piauí. Métodos: estudo ecológico com dados do Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde. Calculou-se os indicadores taxa de internação e coeficiente de mortalidade pela doença entre 2000 e 2019. Realizou-se análise descritiva dos indicadores no período estudado e pelas macrorregiões do estado. Para análise da tendência, foi utilizado o modelo de regressão linear simples com log-transformação. As tendências foram classificadas como crescentes, decrescentes e estáveis, com nível de significância de 5%. Resultados: a média das taxas de internação foi maior na macrorregião semiárido (36,6/1000 menores de cinco anos) e menor em Teresina (14,9/1000 menores de cinco anos). A média dos coeficientes de mortalidade foi maior na macrorregião litoral (0,98/1000 nascidos vivos) e menor em Teresina (0,47/1000 nascidos vivos). Os indicadores mostraram tendência de redução em todos os locais analisados (p<0,05). Notou-se um ponto de inflexão a partir de 2009, com redução significativa das taxas de internação nas macrorregiões cerrados e semiárido. Conclusão: os indicadores de morbimortalidade por doenças diarreicas agudas em menores de cinco anos mostraram tendência de redução no Piauí entre 2000 e 2019, com diferenças das tendências entre as macrorregiões avaliadas.

Profile of hospital admissions and deaths due to severe acute respiratory syndrome caused by COVID-19 in Piauí, Brazil: a descriptive study, 2020-2021. / Perfil de internações e óbitos hospitalares por síndrome respiratória aguda grave causada por COVID-19 no Piauí: estudo descritivo, 2020-2021.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the profile and temporal variation of hospital admissions and deaths due to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) caused by COVID-19 in Piauí, Brazil, according to place of hospitalization. METHODS: We performed a descriptive study using data from the Influenza Surveillance Information System between 2020 and 2021. Case fatality ratio among hospital records with outcome and respective 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were calculated. RESULTS: We included 12,649 individuals who were mostly male (57.1%), Black (61.2%) and had one or two comorbidities (30.5%). Case fatality ratio among hospital records with outcome was higher in the state's interior region than in its capital, with proportion of 44.1% (95%CI 42.0;46.3) for those who were hospitalized, 82.3% (95%CI 79.7;84.8) for those admitted to intensive care units and 96.6% (95%CI 94.9;97.8) for those undergoing invasive mechanical ventilation. CONCLUSION: The study enabled characterization of the profile of SARS hospitalizations due to COVID-19 in Piauí and demonstrated high case fatality ratio, among hospital records with outcome, which remained high during the study period, especially in the interior of the state.

Perfil de internações e óbitos hospitalares por síndrome respiratória aguda grave causada por COVID-19 no Piauí: estudo descritivo, 2020-2021 / Perfil de ingresos y fallecimientos hospitalarios por síndrome respiratorio agudo grave por COVID-19 en Piauí, Brasil: estudio descriptivo, 2020-2021 / Profile of hospital admissions and deaths due to severe acute respiratory syndrome caused by COVID-19 in Piauí, Brazil: a descriptive study, 2020-2021

Objetivo: Descrever o perfil e a variação temporal de internações e óbitos hospitalares por síndrome respiratória aguda grave (SRAG) por COVID-19 no Piauí, Brasil, segundo local de internação. Métodos: Estudo descritivo sobre dados do Sistema de Informação da Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe de 2020 a 2021. Calculou-se a letalidade entre registros hospitalares com desfecho e respectivos intervalos de confiança de 95% (IC95%). Resultados: Foram incluídos 12.649 indivíduos majoritariamente do sexo masculino (57,1%), negros (61,2%), com uma ou duas comorbidades (30,5%). No interior, entre registros hospitalares com desfecho, a letalidade para internados (44,1%; IC95% 42,0;46,3), admitidos em unidades de terapia intensiva (82,3%; IC95% 79,7;84,8) e indivíduos submetidos a ventilação mecânica invasiva (96,6%; IC95% 94,9;97,8) foi maior do que na capital do estado. Conclusão: O estudo permitiu a caracterização do perfil das internações devidas a SRAG por COVID-19 no Piauí e demonstrou elevada letalidade entre registros hospitalares com desfechos, mantendo-se alta no período estudado, sobretudo no interior.

Objetivo: Describir el perfil y variación temporal de los ingresos y fallecimientos hospitalarios por síndrome respiratorio agudo grave (SRAG) causado por COVID-19 en Piauí, Brasil, según el lugar de ingreso. Métodos: Estudio descriptivo con datos del Sistema de Información de Vigilancia Epidemiológica de la Gripe de 2020 a 2021. Se calculó la letalidad entre los registros hospitalarios con desenlace con intervalo de confianza del 95% (IC95%). Resultados: Se incluyeran 12.649 individuos que eran en su mayoría del sexo masculino (57,1%), negros (61,2%) y tenían una o dos comorbilidades (30,5%). La letalidad entre los registros hospitalarios con desenlace fue mayor en el interior, con proporciones de 44,1% (IC95% 42,0;46,3) en individuos hospitalizados, 82,3% (IC95% 79,7;84,8) en unidades de cuidados intensivos y 96,6% (IC95% 94,9;97,8) de los sometidos a ventilación mecánica invasiva. Conclusión: El estudio permitió caracterizar el perfil de hospitalizaciones por SRAG por COVID-19 en Piauí y mostró una alta letalidad entre los registros hospitalarios con desenlace, que se mantuvo alta durante el período de estudio, especialmente en el interior.

Objective: To describe the profile and temporal variation of hospital admissions and deaths due to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) caused by COVID-19 in Piauí, Brazil, according to place of hospitalization. Methods: We performed a descriptive study using data from the Influenza Surveillance Information System between 2020 and 2021. Case fatality ratio among hospital records with outcome and respective 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were calculated. Results: We included 12,649 individuals who were mostly male (57.1%), Black (61.2%) and had one or two comorbidities (30.5%). Case fatality ratio among hospital records with outcome was higher in the state's interior region than in its capital, with proportion of 44.1% (95%CI 42.0;46.3) for those who were hospitalized, 82.3% (95%CI 79.7;84.8) for those admitted to intensive care units and 96.6% (95%CI 94.9;97.8) for those undergoing invasive mechanical ventilation. Conclusion: The study enabled characterization of the profile of SARS hospitalizations due to COVID-19 in Piauí and demonstrated high case fatality ratio, among hospital records with outcome, which remained high during the study period, especially in the interior of the state.

Tendência Temporal da Cobertura de Mamografias no Sistema Único de Saúde, Brasil, 2010-2019 / Temporal trend of Mammography Coverage in the National Health System, Brazil, 2010-2019 / Tendencia Temporal de la Cobertura de Mamografías en el Sistema Único de Salud, Brasil, 2010-2019

Introdução: O câncer de mama no Brasil apresenta elevadas taxas de incidência e mortalidade apesar da tendência de redução da mortalidade em algumas Regiões. Objetivo: Descrever a tendência da cobertura de mamografias de rastreamento nas Macrorregiões e Estados brasileiros e identificar a influência de Políticas Nacionais voltadas ao controle do câncer de mama entre 2010-2019. Método: Foi calculada a razão entre mamografias de rastreamento na faixa etária de 50-69 anos por local de residência e subtraída a população das residentes com plano de saúde na faixa etária e no período referidos. A tendência foi avaliada pelo modelo de regressão Joinpoint. Resultados: A cobertura aumentou no Brasil de 2010-2014 e apresentou queda de 2014-2019, com aumento na proporção de exames realizados na população-alvo. Esse padrão foi observado nas demais Regiões, exceto na Centro-Oeste, porém com ano de mudança da tendência diferente. Foram identificados dois pontos de mudança no país: de 2010-2014, com tendência crescente (APC 8,7, IC 95% 6,2; 11,3), e de 2014-2019, com tendência decrescente (APC -4,2, IC 95% -5,7; -2,7), ambos significantes. A Região Nordeste foi a única com três pontos de mudança de tendência: 2010-2012 (APC 30,3, IC 95% 22,9; 38,2), 2012-2017 (APC 4,7, IC 95% 3,0; 6,4) e 2017-2019 (APC -14,9, IC 95% -19,7; -9,8). Não foi identificada tendência para a Região Centro-Oeste. Conclusão: Houve crescimento na proporção de mamografias de rastreamento realizadas na população-alvo no período, para Brasil e Regiões, e tendência de redução na cobertura da mamografia a partir de 2014. Esses resultados indicam priorização da população-alvo do programa nas ações de rastreamento

Introduction: Breast cancer in Brazil has high incidence and mortality rates despite the declining trend of mortality in some regions. Objective:To describe the trend of mammograms screening coverage in Brazilian macroregions and states and identify the influence of the national breast cancer control policies between 2010-2019. Method: The ratio of screening mammograms in the age group of 50-69 years per local of residence was calculated minus the population of health-insured residents in that age group and period. The trend was evaluated by the Joinpoint regression model. Results: Coverage raised in Brazil from 2010-2014 and declined from 2014-2019, with increase of the proportion of exams in the target population. This pattern was noticed in other regions, except the Midwest, but with different year of shifting trend. Two significant shifting points were identified in the country: from 2010-2014, with increasing trend (APC 8.7, 95%CI 6.2; 11.3), and from 2014-2019 with decreasing trend (APC -4.2, 95%CI -5.7; -2.7). The Northeast region was the only one with three points of shifting trend: from 2010-2012 (APC 30.3, 95%CI 22.9; 38.2), 2012-2017 (APC 4.7, 95%CI 3.0; 6.4) and 2017-2019 (APC -14.9, 95%CI -19.7; -9.8). No trend was identified for the Midwest region. Conclusion: There was an increase in the proportion of screening mammograms performed in the target population in the period for Brazil and macroregions, and a declining trend in mammograms coverage from 2014 onwards. These results indicate the priority given to the target population in the program of screening actions

Introducción: El cáncer de mama en Brasil tiene altas tasas de incidencia y mortalidad a pesar de tendencia a reducción de mortalidad en algunas regiones. Objetivo: Describir tendencia en cobertura de mamografías de cribado en Macrorregiones y Estados brasileños e identificar influencia de políticas nacionales de control del cáncer de mama entre 2010-2019. Método: Calculó la razón entre mamografías de detección en grupo de edad 50-69 años por residencia, menos la población de las residentes con seguro médico en ese grupo de edad y período. La tendencia se evaluó mediante modelo de regresión Joinpoint. Resultados: Cobertura aumentó en Brasil de 2010-2014 y disminuyó de 2014-2019, con aumento em proporción de pruebas realizadas em población objetivo. Este patrón se observó en otras regiones, excepto Medio Oeste, con diferente año de cambio de tendencia. Se identificaron dos puntos de cambio en país: 2010-2014, con tendencia creciente (APC 8,7, IC 95% 6.2; 11.3), y 2014-2019 con tendencia decreciente (APC -4,2, IC 95% -5,7; -2,7), ambos significativos. Región Nordeste fue única con tres puntos de cambio de tendencia: 2010-2012 (APC 30,3, IC 95% 22,9; 38,2), 2012-2017 (APC 4,7, IC 95% 3,0; 6,4) y 2017-2019 (APC -14,9, IC 95% -19,7; -9,8). No se identificó ninguna tendencia para Región Medio Oeste. Conclusión: Hubo un aumento en proporción de mamografías de detección realizadas en población en período, para Brasil y regiones, y una tendencia a reducción de cobertura mamográfica a partir de 2014. Estos resultados indican priorización de población del programa en acciones de cribado

Suicide rates between men and women in Brazil, 2000-2017.

This study aimed to analyze the trend in the standardized suicide rates by gender, according to Brazil's geographic regions from 2000 to 2017. Mortality data were retrieved from the Brazilian Mortality Information System database. Linear regression models were used, and Durbin-Watson tests were applied to detect the independence of the residues, as well as Prais-Winsten to control serial autocorrelation. We classified the trends as increasing, decreasing, and stable at 5% significance level. The standardized rate of deaths by suicide for men increased by 75%, from 6.5 to 11.3 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. For women, the increase was 85%, from 1.6 to 3.0 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. We found a gradual increase in the standardized suicide rates in all regions for both genders. The growth magnitude of suicide rates in the South is twice for women, whereas for the Northeast it is greater for men. The South and the Central-West regions presented the highest rates, whereas the North the lowest. The trend of standardized rates of suicide is linear and significantly increasing for Brazil and its total geographic regions for both genders. Male and female suicide rates indicate different risk rates according to gender.

The effect of ambient temperature on blood pressure of patients undergoing hemodialysis in the Pantanal-Brazil.

The objective was to analyze the association of changes in pre-dialysis systolic and diastolic blood pressure with air temperature in a municipality in the Brazilian Pantanal, a tropical climate area. Longitudinal panel study, with analysis of mixed effects models of 133 hemodialysis patients in the city of Cáceres-Mato Grosso in 2014. Air temperature showed an inverse association with pre-dialysis systolic and diastolic blood pressure. With each increase of 1 °C in the mean air temperature, the pre-dialysis systolic blood pressure decreases -0.730mmHg (p ≤ 0.000) and the pre-dialysis diastolic blood pressure decreases -0.280mmHg (p ≤ 0.000). The estimated effect was greater for systolic blood pressure, but both pre-dialysis blood pressure measures are reduced with an increase in lag (up to two days), even when adjusted for relative air humidity. Air temperature is determinant for changes in pre-dialysis systolic and diastolic blood pressure in hemodialysis patients. The temperature effect was greater for systolic blood pressure than for diastolic blood pressure.

Mortality Risk from Respiratory Diseases Due to Non-Optimal Temperature among Brazilian Elderlies.

Over the past decade, Brazil has experienced and continues to be impacted by extreme climate events. This study aims to evaluate the association between daily average temperature and mortality from respiratory disease among Brazilian elderlies. A daily time-series study between 2000 and 2017 in 27 Brazilian cities was conducted. Data outcomes were daily counts of deaths due to respiratory diseases in the elderly aged 60 or more. The exposure variable was the daily mean temperature from Copernicus ERA5-Land reanalysis. The association was estimated from a two-stage time series analysis method. We also calculated deaths attributable to heat and cold. The pooled exposure-response curve presented a J-shaped format. The exposure to extreme heat increased the risk of mortality by 27% (95% CI: 15-39%), while the exposure to extreme cold increased the risk of mortality by 16% (95% CI: 8-24%). The heterogeneity between cities was explained by city-specific mean temperature and temperature range. The fractions of deaths attributable to cold and heat were 4.7% (95% CI: 2.94-6.17%) and 2.8% (95% CI: 1.45-3.95%), respectively. Our results show a significant impact of non-optimal temperature on the respiratory health of elderlies living in Brazil. It may support proactive action implementation in cities that have critical temperature variations.

Port and industrial compound of Pecém: an epidemiological survey. / Complexo industrial e portuário do Pecém: um inquérito epidemiológico.

This research aimed to analyze the dwellers' knowledge of the territories, Pecém Port and Industrial Compound (CIPP), the quality of life of the communities living in the vicinity of the enterprises, and the prevalence of hypertension and overweight. This is a home-based, epidemiological survey of four areas of the Family Health Strategy (ESF) in São Gonçalo do Amarante and one area of the ESF in Caucaia, Ceará, Brazil. The study was carried out between 10/2017 and 03/2018. Anthropometric and blood pressure measurements were performed, and sociodemographic data and knowledge about community, the CIPP, and quality of life were collected. A total of 69.8% of the 503 adults interviewed were female, and the mean age was 44 years. Parada was the area reporting the highest percentage of problems related to air particles (51.1%), the worst concept regarding the CIPP (40.1% bad), the highest percentage of worse quality of life (29, 1%), and greater desire to move to another place (31.5%). Pecém had the highest percentage of community problems related to violence, consumption of illicit drugs, and prostitution. We concluded that there are signs of impact on local populations' health and quality of life without more significant direct work/income benefits.

Esta pesquisa busca analisar o conhecimento dos moradores sobre o território, Complexo Industrial e Portuário do Pecém (CIPP), qualidade de vida das comunidades que vivem no entorno dos empreendimentos, além da prevalência de hipertensão e excesso de peso. Trata-se de um inquérito epidemiológico, de base domiciliar, envolvendo quatro áreas da Estratégia de Saúde da Família (ESF) do Município de São Gonçalo do Amarante e uma de Caucaia, Ceará, Brasil. O estudo foi realizado entre 10/2017 e 03/2018, em que foram realizadas aferições antropométricas e pressão arterial e coletados dados sociodemográficos e o conhecimento sobre comunidade, CIPP e qualidade de vida. Dos 503 adultos entrevistados, 69,8% eram do sexo feminino e a média de idade foi 44 anos. Parada foi a área que relatou o maior percentual de problemas relacionados às partículas aéreas (51,1%), pior conceito em relação ao CIPP (40,1% ruim), maior percentual de piora da qualidade de vida (29,1%) e maior desejo de mudar (31,5%). Pecém apresentou maior percentual de problemas na comunidade relacionados à violência, consumo de drogas ilícitas e prostituição. Conclui-se que se apresenta indícios de impacto na saúde e qualidade de vida das populações locais sem maiores benefícios diretos no trabalho/renda.

Complexo industrial e portuário do Pecém: um inquérito epidemiológico / Port and industrial compound of Pecém: an epidemiological survey

Resumo Esta pesquisa busca analisar o conhecimento dos moradores sobre o território, Complexo Industrial e Portuário do Pecém (CIPP), qualidade de vida das comunidades que vivem no entorno dos empreendimentos, além da prevalência de hipertensão e excesso de peso. Trata-se de um inquérito epidemiológico, de base domiciliar, envolvendo quatro áreas da Estratégia de Saúde da Família (ESF) do Município de São Gonçalo do Amarante e uma de Caucaia, Ceará, Brasil. O estudo foi realizado entre 10/2017 e 03/2018, em que foram realizadas aferições antropométricas e pressão arterial e coletados dados sociodemográficos e o conhecimento sobre comunidade, CIPP e qualidade de vida. Dos 503 adultos entrevistados, 69,8% eram do sexo feminino e a média de idade foi 44 anos. Parada foi a área que relatou o maior percentual de problemas relacionados às partículas aéreas (51,1%), pior conceito em relação ao CIPP (40,1% ruim), maior percentual de piora da qualidade de vida (29,1%) e maior desejo de mudar (31,5%). Pecém apresentou maior percentual de problemas na comunidade relacionados à violência, consumo de drogas ilícitas e prostituição. Conclui-se que se apresenta indícios de impacto na saúde e qualidade de vida das populações locais sem maiores benefícios diretos no trabalho/renda.

Abstract This research aimed to analyze the dwellers' knowledge of the territories, Pecém Port and Industrial Compound (CIPP), the quality of life of the communities living in the vicinity of the enterprises, and the prevalence of hypertension and overweight. This is a home-based, epidemiological survey of four areas of the Family Health Strategy (ESF) in São Gonçalo do Amarante and one area of the ESF in Caucaia, Ceará, Brazil. The study was carried out between 10/2017 and 03/2018. Anthropometric and blood pressure measurements were performed, and sociodemographic data and knowledge about community, the CIPP, and quality of life were collected. A total of 69.8% of the 503 adults interviewed were female, and the mean age was 44 years. Parada was the area reporting the highest percentage of problems related to air particles (51.1%), the worst concept regarding the CIPP (40.1% bad), the highest percentage of worse quality of life (29, 1%), and greater desire to move to another place (31.5%). Pecém had the highest percentage of community problems related to violence, consumption of illicit drugs, and prostitution. We concluded that there are signs of impact on local populations' health and quality of life without more significant direct work/income benefits.

Projections of excess cardiovascular mortality related to temperature under different climate change scenarios and regionalized climate model simulations in Brazilian cities.

BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need for more information about the climate change impact on health in order to strengthen the commitment to tackle climate change. However, few studies have quantified the health impact of climate change in Brazil and in the Latin America region. In this paper, we projected the impacts of temperature on cardiovascular (CVD) mortality according to two climate change scenarios and two regionalized climate model simulations in Brazilian cities. METHODS: We estimated the temperature-CVD mortality relationship in 21 Brazilian cities, using distributed lag non-linear models in a two-stage time-series analysis. We combined the observed exposure-response functions with the daily temperature projected under two representative concentration pathways (RCP), RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, and two regionalized climate model simulations, Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5. RESULTS: We observed a trend of reduction in mortality related to low temperatures and a trend of increase in mortality related to high temperatures, according to all the investigated models and scenarios. In most places, the increase in mortality related to high temperatures outweighed the reduction in mortality related to low temperatures, causing a net increase in the excess temperature-related mortality. These trends were steeper according to the higher emission scenario, RCP8.5, and to the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model. According to RCP8.5, our projections suggested that the temperature-related mortality fractions in 2090-99 compared to 2010-2019 would increase by 8.6% and 1.7%, under Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5, respectively. According to RCP4.5, these values would be 0.7% and -0.6%. CONCLUSIONS: For the same climate model, we observed a greater increase trend in temperature-CVD mortality according to RCP8.5, highlighting a greater health impact associated with the higher emission scenario. Our results may be useful to support public policies and strategies for mitigation of and adaptation to climate change, particularly in the health sector.

Temperature and cardiovascular mortality in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: effect modification by individual-level and neighbourhood-level factors.

BACKGROUND: Many factors related to susceptibility or vulnerability to temperature effects on mortality have been proposed in the literature. However, there is limited evidence of effect modification by some individual-level factors such as occupation, colour/race, education level and community-level factors. We investigated the effect modification of the temperature-cardiovascular mortality relationship by individual-level and neighbourhood-level factors in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. METHODS: We used a case-crossover study to estimate the total effect of temperature on cardiovascular mortality in Rio de Janeiro between 2001 and 2018, and the effect modification by individual-level and neighbourhood-level factors. Individual-level factors included sex, age, colour/race, education, and place of death. Neighbourhood-level characteristics included social development index (SDI), income, electricity consumption and demographic change. We used conditional Poisson regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models, adjusted for humidity and public holidays. RESULTS: Our results suggest a higher vulnerability to high temperatures among the elderly, women, non-hospitalised deaths, and people with a lower education level. Vulnerability to low temperatures was higher among the elderly, men, non-white people, and for primary education level. As for neighbourhood-level factors, we identified greater vulnerability to low and high temperatures in places with lower SDI, lower income, lower consumption of electricity, and higher demographic growth. CONCLUSION: The effects of temperature on cardiovascular disease mortality in Rio de Janeiro vary according to individual-level and neighbourhood-level factors. These findings are valuable to inform policymakers about the most vulnerable groups and places, in order to develop more effective and equitable public policies.