Seagrass genomes reveal ancient polyploidy and adaptations to the marine environment.

We present chromosome-level genome assemblies from representative species of three independently evolved seagrass lineages: Posidonia oceanica, Cymodocea nodosa, Thalassia testudinum and Zostera marina. We also include a draft genome of Potamogeton acutifolius, belonging to a freshwater sister lineage to Zosteraceae. All seagrass species share an ancient whole-genome triplication, while additional whole-genome duplications were uncovered for C. nodosa, Z. marina and P. acutifolius. Comparative analysis of selected gene families suggests that the transition from submerged-freshwater to submerged-marine environments mainly involved fine-tuning of multiple processes (such as osmoregulation, salinity, light capture, carbon acquisition and temperature) that all had to happen in parallel, probably explaining why adaptation to a marine lifestyle has been exceedingly rare. Major gene losses related to stomata, volatiles, defence and lignification are probably a consequence of the return to the sea rather than the cause of it. These new genomes will accelerate functional studies and solutions, as continuing losses of the 'savannahs of the sea' are of major concern in times of climate change and loss of biodiversity.

Ocean current patterns drive the worldwide colonization of eelgrass (Zostera marina).

Currents are unique drivers of oceanic phylogeography and thus determine the distribution of marine coastal species, along with past glaciations and sea-level changes. Here we reconstruct the worldwide colonization history of eelgrass (Zostera marina L.), the most widely distributed marine flowering plant or seagrass from its origin in the Northwest Pacific, based on nuclear and chloroplast genomes. We identified two divergent Pacific clades with evidence for admixture along the East Pacific coast. Two west-to-east (trans-Pacific) colonization events support the key role of the North Pacific Current. Time-calibrated nuclear and chloroplast phylogenies yielded concordant estimates of the arrival of Z. marina in the Atlantic through the Canadian Arctic, suggesting that eelgrass-based ecosystems, hotspots of biodiversity and carbon sequestration, have only been present there for ~243 ky (thousand years). Mediterranean populations were founded ~44 kya, while extant distributions along western and eastern Atlantic shores were founded at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (~19 kya), with at least one major refuge being the North Carolina region. The recent colonization and five- to sevenfold lower genomic diversity of the Atlantic compared to the Pacific populations raises concern and opportunity about how Atlantic eelgrass might respond to rapidly warming coastal oceans.

A Pleistocene legacy structures variation in modern seagrass ecosystems.

Distribution of Earth's biomes is structured by the match between climate and plant traits, which in turn shape associated communities and ecosystem processes and services. However, that climate-trait match can be disrupted by historical events, with lasting ecosystem impacts. As Earth's environment changes faster than at any time in human history, critical questions are whether and how organismal traits and ecosystems can adjust to altered conditions. We quantified the relative importance of current environmental forcing versus evolutionary history in shaping the growth form (stature and biomass) and associated community of eelgrass (Zostera marina), a widespread foundation plant of marine ecosystems along Northern Hemisphere coastlines, which experienced major shifts in distribution and genetic composition during the Pleistocene. We found that eelgrass stature and biomass retain a legacy of the Pleistocene colonization of the Atlantic from the ancestral Pacific range and of more recent within-basin bottlenecks and genetic differentiation. This evolutionary legacy in turn influences the biomass of associated algae and invertebrates that fuel coastal food webs, with effects comparable to or stronger than effects of current environmental forcing. Such historical lags in phenotypic acclimatization may constrain ecosystem adjustments to rapid anthropogenic climate change, thus altering predictions about the future functioning of ecosystems.

The biogeography of community assembly: latitude and predation drive variation in community trait distribution in a guild of epifaunal crustaceans.

While considerable evidence exists of biogeographic patterns in the intensity of species interactions, the influence of these patterns on variation in community structure is less clear. Studying how the distributions of traits in communities vary along global gradients can inform how variation in interactions and other factors contribute to the process of community assembly. Using a model selection approach on measures of trait dispersion in crustaceans associated with eelgrass (Zostera marina) spanning 30° of latitude in two oceans, we found that dispersion strongly increased with increasing predation and decreasing latitude. Ocean and epiphyte load appeared as secondary predictors; Pacific communities were more overdispersed while Atlantic communities were more clustered, and increasing epiphytes were associated with increased clustering. By examining how species interactions and environmental filters influence community structure across biogeographic regions, we demonstrate how both latitudinal variation in species interactions and historical contingency shape these responses. Community trait distributions have implications for ecosystem stability and functioning, and integrating large-scale observations of environmental filters, species interactions and traits can help us predict how communities may respond to environmental change.

Adaptation of Temperate Seagrass to Arctic Light Relies on Seasonal Acclimatization of Carbon Capture and Metabolism.

Due to rising global surface temperatures, Arctic habitats are becoming thermally suitable for temperate species. Whether a temperate species can immigrate into an ice-free Arctic depends on its ability to tolerate extreme seasonal fluctuations in daylength. Thus, understanding adaptations to polar light conditions can improve the realism of models predicting poleward range expansions in response to climate change. Plant adaptations to polar light have rarely been studied and remain unknown in seagrasses. If these ecosystem engineers can migrate polewards, seagrasses will enrich biodiversity, and carbon capture potential in shallow coastal regions of the Arctic. Eelgrass (Zostera marina) is the most widely distributed seagrass in the northern hemisphere. As the only seagrass species growing as far north as 70°N, it is the most likely candidate to first immigrate into an ice-free Arctic. Here, we describe seasonal (and diurnal) changes in photosynthetic characteristics, and in genome-wide gene expression patterns under strong annual fluctuations of daylength. We compared PAM measurements and RNA-seq data between two populations at the longest and shortest day of the year: (1) a Mediterranean population exposed to moderate annual fluctuations of 10-14 h daylength and (2) an Arctic population exposed to high annual fluctuations of 0-24 h daylength. Most of the gene expression specificities of the Arctic population were found in functions of the organelles (chloroplast and mitochondrion). In winter, Arctic eelgrass conserves energy by repressing respiration and reducing photosynthetic energy fluxes. Although light-reactions, and genes involved in carbon capture and carbon storage were upregulated in summer, enzymes involved in CO2 fixation and chlorophyll-synthesis were upregulated in winter, suggesting that winter metabolism relies not only on stored energy resources but also on active use of dim light conditions. Eelgrass is unable to use excessive amounts of light during summer and demonstrates a significant reduction in photosynthetic performance under long daylengths, possibly to prevent photoinhibition constrains. Our study identified key mechanisms that allow eelgrass to survive under Arctic light conditions and paves the way for experimental research to predict whether and up to which latitude eelgrass can potentially migrate polewards in response to climate change.

Improved chromosome-level genome assembly and annotation of the seagrass, Zostera marina (eelgrass).

Background: Seagrasses (Alismatales) are the only fully marine angiosperms.  Zostera marina (eelgrass) plays a crucial role in the functioning of coastal marine ecosystems and global carbon sequestration. It is the most widely studied seagrass and has become a marine model system for exploring adaptation under rapid climate change. The original draft genome (v.1.0) of the seagrass  Z. marina (L.) was based on a combination of Illumina mate-pair libraries and fosmid-ends. A total of 25.55 Gb of Illumina and 0.14 Gb of Sanger sequence was obtained representing 47.7× genomic coverage. The assembly resulted in ~2000 unordered scaffolds (L50 of 486 Kb), a final genome assembly size of 203MB, 20,450 protein coding genes and 63% TE content. Here, we present an upgraded chromosome-scale genome assembly and compare v.1.0 and the new v.3.1, reconfirming previous results from Olsen et al. (2016), as well as pointing out new findings.   Methods: The same high molecular weight DNA used in the original sequencing of the Finnish clone was used. A high-quality reference genome was assembled with the MECAT assembly pipeline combining PacBio long-read sequencing and Hi-C scaffolding.  Results: In total, 75.97 Gb PacBio data was produced. The final assembly comprises six pseudo-chromosomes and 304 unanchored scaffolds with a total length of 260.5Mb and an N50 of 34.6 MB, showing high contiguity and few gaps (~0.5%). 21,483 protein-encoding genes are annotated in this assembly, of which 20,665 (96.2%) obtained at least one functional assignment based on similarity to known proteins.  Conclusions: As an important marine angiosperm, the improved  Z. marina genome assembly will further assist evolutionary, ecological, and comparative genomics at the chromosome level. The new genome assembly will further our understanding into the structural and physiological adaptations from land to marine life.

The Seagrass Methylome Is Associated With Variation in Photosynthetic Performance Among Clonal Shoots.

Evolutionary theory predicts that clonal organisms are more susceptible to extinction than sexually reproducing organisms, due to low genetic variation and slow rates of evolution. In agreement, conservation management considers genetic variation as the ultimate measure of a population's ability to survive over time. However, clonal plants are among the oldest living organisms on our planet. Here, we test the hypothesis that clonal seagrass meadows display epigenetic variation that complements genetic variation as a source of phenotypic variation. In a clonal meadow of the seagrass Zostera marina, we characterized DNA methylation among 42 shoots. We also sequenced the whole genome of 10 shoots to correlate methylation patterns with photosynthetic performance under exposure to and recovery from 27°C, while controlling for somatic mutations. Here, we show for the first time that clonal seagrass shoots display DNA methylation variation that is independent from underlying genetic variation, and associated with variation in photosynthetic performance under experimental conditions. It remains unknown to what degree this association could be influenced by epigenetic responses to transplantation-related stress, given that the methylomes showed a strong shift under acclimation to laboratory conditions. The lack of untreated control samples in the heat stress experiment did not allow us to distinguish methylome shifts induced by acclimation from such induced by heat stress. Notwithstanding, the co-variation in DNA methylation and photosynthetic performance may be linked via gene expression because methylation patterns varied in functionally relevant genes involved in photosynthesis, and in the repair and prevention of heat-induced protein damage. While genotypic diversity has been shown to enhance stress resilience in seagrass meadows, we suggest that epigenetic variation plays a similar role in meadows dominated by a single genotype. Consequently, conservation management of clonal plants should consider epigenetic variation as indicator of resilience and stability.

Integrating genetics, biophysical, and demographic insights identifies critical sites for seagrass conservation.

The eelgrass Zostera marina is an important foundation species of coastal areas in the Northern Hemisphere, but is continuing to decline, despite management actions. The development of new management tools is therefore urgent in order to prioritize limited resources for protecting meadows most vulnerable to local extinctions and identifying most valuable present and historic meadows to protect and restore, respectively. We assessed 377 eelgrass meadows along the complex coastlines of two fjord regions on the Swedish west coast-one is currently healthy and the other is substantially degraded. Shoot dispersal for all meadows was assessed with Lagrangian biophysical modeling (scale: 100-1,000 m) and used for barrier analysis and clustering; a subset (n = 22) was also assessed with population genetic methods (20 microsatellites) including diversity, structure, and network connectivity. Both approaches were in very good agreement, resulting in seven subpopulation groupings or management units (MUs). The MUs correspond to a spatial scale appropriate for coastal management of "waterbodies" used in the European Water Framework Directive. Adding demographic modeling based on the genetic and biophysical data as a third approach, we are able to assess past, present, and future metapopulation dynamics to identify especially vulnerable and valuable meadows. In a further application, we show how the biophysical approach, using eigenvalue perturbation theory (EPT) and distribution records from the 1980s, can be used to identify lost meadows where restoration would best benefit the present metapopulation. The combination of methods, presented here as a toolbox, allows the assessment of different temporal and spatial scales at the same time, as well as ranking of specific meadows according to key genetic, demographic and ecological metrics. It could be applied to any species or region, and we exemplify its versatility as a management guide for eelgrass along the Swedish west coast.

Seascape genetics and biophysical connectivity modelling support conservation of the seagrass Zostera marina in the Skagerrak-Kattegat region of the eastern North Sea.

Maintaining and enabling evolutionary processes within meta-populations are critical to resistance, resilience and adaptive potential. Knowledge about which populations act as sources or sinks, and the direction of gene flow, can help to focus conservation efforts more effectively and forecast how populations might respond to future anthropogenic and environmental pressures. As a foundation species and habitat provider, Zostera marina (eelgrass) is of critical importance to ecosystem functions including fisheries. Here, we estimate connectivity of Z. marina in the Skagerrak-Kattegat region of the North Sea based on genetic and biophysical modelling. Genetic diversity, population structure and migration were analysed at 23 locations using 20 microsatellite loci and a suite of analytical approaches. Oceanographic connectivity was analysed using Lagrangian dispersal simulations based on contemporary and historical distribution data dating back to the late 19th century. Population clusters, barriers and networks of connectivity were found to be very similar based on either genetic or oceanographic analyses. A single-generation model of dispersal was not realistic, whereas multigeneration models that integrate stepping-stone dispersal and extant and historic distribution data were able to capture and model genetic connectivity patterns well. Passive rafting of flowering shoots along oceanographic currents is the main driver of gene flow at this spatial-temporal scale, and extant genetic connectivity strongly reflects the "ghost of dispersal past" sensu Benzie, 1999. The identification of distinct clusters, connectivity hotspots and areas where connectivity has become limited over the last century is critical information for spatial management, conservation and restoration of eelgrass.

Decadal stability in genetic variation and structure in the intertidal seaweed Fucus serratus (Heterokontophyta: Fucaceae).

BACKGROUND: The spatial distribution of genetic diversity and structure has important implications for conservation as it reveals a species' strong and weak points with regard to stability and evolutionary capacity. Temporal genetic stability is rarely tested in marine species other than commercially important fishes, but is crucial for the utility of temporal snapshots in conservation management. High and stable diversity can help to mitigate the predicted northward range shift of seaweeds under the impact of climate change. Given the key ecological role of fucoid seaweeds along rocky shores, the positive effect of genetic diversity may reach beyond the species level to stabilize the entire intertidal ecosystem along the temperate North Atlantic. In this study, we estimated the effective population size, as well as temporal changes in genetic structure and diversity of the seaweed F. serratus using 22 microsatellite markers. Samples were taken across latitudes and a range of temperature regimes at seven locations with decadal sampling (2000 and 2010). RESULTS: Across latitudes, genetic structure and diversity remained stable over 5-10 generations. Stable small-scale structure enhanced regional diversity throughout the species' range. In accordance with its biogeographic history, effective population size and diversity peaked in the species' mid-range in Brittany (France), and declined towards its leading and trailing edge to the north and south. At the species' southern edge, multi-locus-heterozygosity displayed a strong decline from 1999 to 2010. CONCLUSION: Temporally stable genetic structure over small spatial scales is a potential driver for local adaptation and species radiation in the genus Fucus. Survival and adaptation of the low-diversity leading edge of F. serratus may be enhanced by regional gene flow and 'surfing' of favorable mutations or impaired by the accumulation of deleterious mutations. Our results have clear implications for the conservation of F. serratus at its genetically unique southern edge in Northwest Iberia, where increasing temperatures are likely the major cause for the decline not only of F. serratus, but also other intertidal and subtidal macroalgae. We expect that F. serratus will disappear from Northwest Iberia by 2100 if genetic rescue is not induced by the influx of genetic variation from Brittany.

Transitions between marine and freshwater environments provide new clues about the origins of multicellular plants and algae.

Marine-freshwater and freshwater-marine transitions have been key events in the evolution of life, and most major groups of organisms have independently undergone such events at least once in their history. Here, we first compile an inventory of bidirectional freshwater and marine transitions in multicellular photosynthetic eukaryotes. While green and red algae have mastered multiple transitions in both directions, brown algae have colonized freshwater on a maximum of six known occasions, and angiosperms have made the transition to marine environments only two or three times. Next, we review the early evolutionary events leading to the colonization of current habitats. It is commonly assumed that the conquest of land proceeded in a sequence from marine to freshwater habitats. However, recent evidence suggests that early photosynthetic eukaryotes may have arisen in subaerial or freshwater environments and only later colonized marine environments as hypersaline oceans were diluted to the contemporary level. Although this hypothesis remains speculative, it is important to keep these alternative scenarios in mind when interpreting the current habitat distribution of plants and algae. Finally, we discuss the roles of structural and functional adaptations of the cell wall, reactive oxygen species scavengers, osmoregulation, and reproduction. These are central for acclimatization to freshwater or to marine environments. We observe that successful transitions appear to have occurred more frequently in morphologically simple forms and conclude that, in addition to physiological studies of euryhaline species, comparative studies of closely related species fully adapted to one or the other environment are necessary to better understand the adaptive processes.

The genome of the seagrass Zostera marina reveals angiosperm adaptation to the sea.

Seagrasses colonized the sea on at least three independent occasions to form the basis of one of the most productive and widespread coastal ecosystems on the planet. Here we report the genome of Zostera marina (L.), the first, to our knowledge, marine angiosperm to be fully sequenced. This reveals unique insights into the genomic losses and gains involved in achieving the structural and physiological adaptations required for its marine lifestyle, arguably the most severe habitat shift ever accomplished by flowering plants. Key angiosperm innovations that were lost include the entire repertoire of stomatal genes, genes involved in the synthesis of terpenoids and ethylene signalling, and genes for ultraviolet protection and phytochromes for far-red sensing. Seagrasses have also regained functions enabling them to adjust to full salinity. Their cell walls contain all of the polysaccharides typical of land plants, but also contain polyanionic, low-methylated pectins and sulfated galactans, a feature shared with the cell walls of all macroalgae and that is important for ion homoeostasis, nutrient uptake and O2/CO2 exchange through leaf epidermal cells. The Z. marina genome resource will markedly advance a wide range of functional ecological studies from adaptation of marine ecosystems under climate warming, to unravelling the mechanisms of osmoregulation under high salinities that may further inform our understanding of the evolution of salt tolerance in crop plants.

Biodiversity mediates top-down control in eelgrass ecosystems: a global comparative-experimental approach.

Nutrient pollution and reduced grazing each can stimulate algal blooms as shown by numerous experiments. But because experiments rarely incorporate natural variation in environmental factors and biodiversity, conditions determining the relative strength of bottom-up and top-down forcing remain unresolved. We factorially added nutrients and reduced grazing at 15 sites across the range of the marine foundation species eelgrass (Zostera marina) to quantify how top-down and bottom-up control interact with natural gradients in biodiversity and environmental forcing. Experiments confirmed modest top-down control of algae, whereas fertilisation had no general effect. Unexpectedly, grazer and algal biomass were better predicted by cross-site variation in grazer and eelgrass diversity than by global environmental gradients. Moreover, these large-scale patterns corresponded strikingly with prior small-scale experiments. Our results link global and local evidence that biodiversity and top-down control strongly influence functioning of threatened seagrass ecosystems, and suggest that biodiversity is comparably important to global change stressors.

A meta-analysis reveals a positive correlation between genetic diversity metrics and environmental status in the long-lived seagrass Posidonia oceanica.

The seagrass Posidonia oceanica is a key engineering species structuring coastal marine systems throughout much of the Mediterranean basin. Its decline is of concern, leading to the search for short- and long-term indicators of seagrass health. Using ArcGIS maps from a recent, high-resolution (1-4 km) modelling study of 18 disturbance factors affecting coastal marine systems across the Mediterranean (Micheli et al. 2013, http://globalmarine.nceas.ucsb.edu/mediterranean/), we tested for correlations with genetic diversity metrics (allelic diversity, genotypic/clonal diversity and heterozygosity) in a meta-analysis of 56 meadows. Contrary to initial predictions, weak but significantly positive correlations were found for commercial shipping, organic pollution (pesticides) and cumulative impact. This counterintuitive finding suggests greater resistance and resilience of individuals with higher genetic and genotypic diversity under disturbance (at least for a time) and/or increased sexual reproduction under an intermediate disturbance model. We interpret the absence of low and medium levels of genetic variation at impacted locations as probable local extinctions of individuals that already exceeded their resistance capacity. Alternatively, high diversity at high-impact sites is likely a temporal artefact, reflecting the mismatch with pre-environmental impact conditions, especially because flowering and sexual recruitment are seldom observed. While genetic diversity metrics are a valuable tool for restoration and mitigation, caution must be exercised in the interpretation of correlative patterns as found in this study, because the exceptional longevity of individuals creates a temporal mismatch that may falsely suggest good meadow health status, while gradual deterioration of allelic diversity might go unnoticed.

A dated molecular phylogeny of manta and devil rays (Mobulidae) based on mitogenome and nuclear sequences.

Manta and devil rays are an iconic group of globally distributed pelagic filter feeders, yet their evolutionary history remains enigmatic. We employed next generation sequencing of mitogenomes for nine of the 11 recognized species and two outgroups; as well as additional Sanger sequencing of two mitochondrial and two nuclear genes in an extended taxon sampling set. Analysis of the mitogenome coding regions in a Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian framework provided a well-resolved phylogeny. The deepest divergences distinguished three clades with high support, one containing Manta birostris, Manta alfredi, Mobula tarapacana, Mobula japanica and Mobula mobular; one containing Mobula kuhlii, Mobula eregoodootenkee and Mobula thurstoni; and one containing Mobula munkiana, Mobula hypostoma and Mobula rochebrunei. Mobula remains paraphyletic with the inclusion of Manta, a result that is in agreement with previous studies based on molecular and morphological data. A fossil-calibrated Bayesian random local clock analysis suggests that mobulids diverged from Rhinoptera around 30 Mya. Subsequent divergences are characterized by long internodes followed by short bursts of speciation extending from an initial episode of divergence in the Early and Middle Miocene (19-17 Mya) to a second episode during the Pliocene and Pleistocene (3.6 Mya - recent). Estimates of divergence dates overlap significantly with periods of global warming, during which upwelling intensity - and related high primary productivity in upwelling regions - decreased markedly. These periods are hypothesized to have led to fragmentation and isolation of feeding regions leading to possible regional extinctions, as well as the promotion of allopatric speciation. The closely shared evolutionary history of mobulids in combination with ongoing threats from fisheries and climate change effects on upwelling and food supply, reinforces the case for greater protection of this charismatic family of pelagic filter feeders.

Genome-wide transcriptomic responses of the seagrasses Zostera marina and Nanozostera noltii under a simulated heatwave confirm functional types.

Genome-wide transcription analysis between related species occurring in overlapping ranges can provide insights into the molecular basis underlying different ecological niches. The co-occurring seagrass species, Zostera marina and Nanozostera noltii, are found in marine coastal environments throughout the northern hemisphere. Z. marina is often dominant in subtidal environments and subjected to fewer temperature extremes compared to the predominately intertidal and more stress-tolerant N. noltii. We exposed plants of both species to a realistic heat wave scenario in a common-stress-garden experiment. Using RNA-seq (~7million reads/library), four Z. marina and four N. noltii libraries were compared representing northern (Denmark) and southern (Italy) locations within the co-occurring range of the species' European distribution. A total of 8977 expressed genes were identified, of which 78 were directly related to heat stress. As predicted, both species were negatively affected by the heat wave, but showed markedly different molecular responses. In Z. marina the heat response was similar across locations in response to the heatwave at 26°C, with a complex response in functions related to protein folding, synthesis of ribosomal chloroplast proteins, proteins involved in cell wall modification and heat shock proteins (HSPs). In N. noltii the heat response markedly differed between locations, while HSP genes were not induced in either population. Our results suggest that as coastal seawater temperatures increase, Z. marina will disappear along its southern most ranges, whereas N. noltii will continue to move north. As a consequence, sub- and intertidal habitat partitioning may weaken in more northern regions because the higher thermal tolerance of N. noltii provides a competitive advantage in both habitats. Although previous studies have focused on HSPs, the present study clearly demonstrates that a broader examination of stress related genes is necessary.

Thermal stress resistance of the brown alga Fucus serratus along the North-Atlantic coast: acclimatization potential to climate change.

Seaweed-dominated communities are predicted to disappear south of 45° latitude on North-Atlantic rocky shores by 2200 because of climate change. The extent of predicted habitat loss, however, could be mitigated if the seaweeds' physiology is sufficiently plastic to rapidly acclimatize to the warmer temperatures. The main objectives of this study were to identify whether the thermal tolerance of the canopy-forming seaweed Fucus serratus is population-specific and where temperatures are likely to exceed its tolerance limits in the next 200 years. We measured the stress response of seaweed samples from four populations (Norway, Denmark, Brittany and Spain) to common-garden heat stress (20 °C-36 °C) in both photosynthetic performance and transcriptomic upregulation of heat shock protein genes. The two stress indicators did not correlate and likely measured different cellular components of the stress response, but both indicators revealed population-specific differences, suggesting ecotypic differentiation. Our results confirmed that thermal extremes will regularly reach physiologically stressful levels in Brittany (France) and further south by the end of the 22nd century. Although heat stress resilience in photosynthetic performance was higher at the species' southern distributional edge in Spain, the hsp expression pattern suggested that this edge-population experienced reduced fitness and limited responsiveness to further stressors. Thus, F. serratus may be unable to mitigate its predicted northward shift and may be at high risk to lose its center of genetic diversity and adaptability in Brittany (France). As it is an important intertidal key species, the disappearance of this seaweed will likely trigger major ecological changes in the entire associated ecosystem.

Climate change impact on seaweed meadow distribution in the North Atlantic rocky intertidal.

The North-Atlantic has warmed faster than all other ocean basins and climate change scenarios predict sea surface temperature isotherms to shift up to 600 km northwards by the end of the 21st century. The pole-ward shift has already begun for many temperate seaweed species that are important intertidal foundation species. We asked the question: Where will climate change have the greatest impact on three foundational, macroalgal species that occur along North-Atlantic shores: Fucus serratus, Fucus vesiculosus, and Ascophyllum nodosum? To predict distributional changes of these key species under three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) over the coming two centuries, we generated Ecological Niche Models with the program MAXENT. Model predictions suggest that these three species will shift northwards as an assemblage or "unit" and that phytogeographic changes will be most pronounced in the southern Arctic and the southern temperate provinces. Our models predict that Arctic shores in Canada, Greenland, and Spitsbergen will become suitable for all three species by 2100. Shores south of 45° North will become unsuitable for at least two of the three focal species on both the Northwest- and Northeast-Atlantic coasts by 2200. If these foundational species are unable to adapt to the rising temperatures, they will lose their centers of genetic diversity and their loss will trigger an unpredictable shift in the North-Atlantic intertidal ecosystem.

Can clade age alone explain the relationship between body size and diversity?

One of the most striking patterns observed among animals is that smaller-bodied taxa are generally much more diverse than larger-bodied taxa. This observation seems to be explained by the mere fact that smaller-bodied taxa tend to have an older evolutionary origin and have therefore had more time to diversify. A few studies, based on the prevailing null model of diversification (i.e. the stochastic constant-rate birth-death model), have suggested that this is indeed the correct explanation, and body-size dependence of speciation and extinction rates does not play a role. However, there are several potential shortcomings to these studies: a suboptimal statistical procedure and a relatively narrow range of body sizes in the analysed data. Here, we present a more coherent statistical approach, maximizing the likelihood of the constant-rate birth-death model with allometric scaling of speciation and extinction rates, given data on extant diversity, clade age and average body size in each clade. We applied our method to a dataset compiled from the literature that includes a wide range of Metazoan taxa (range from midges to elephants). We find that the higher diversity among small animals is indeed, partly, caused by higher clade age. However, it is also partly caused by the body-size dependence of speciation and extinction rates. We find that both the speciation rate and extinction rate decrease with body size such that the net diversification rate is close to 0. Even more interestingly, the allometric scaling exponent of speciation and extinction rates is approximately -0.25, which implies that the per generation speciation and extinction rates are independent of body size. This suggests that the observed relationship between diversity and body size pattern can be explained by clade age alone, but only if clade age is measured in generations rather than years. Thus, we argue that the most parsimonious explanation for the observation that smaller-bodied taxa are more diverse is that their evolutionary clock ticks faster.