Sediment delivery to sustain the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta under climate change and anthropogenic impacts.

The principal nature-based solution for offsetting relative sea-level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is the unabated delivery, dispersal, and deposition of the rivers' ~1 billion-tonne annual sediment load. Recent hydrological transport modeling suggests that strengthening monsoon precipitation in the 21st century could increase this sediment delivery 34-60%; yet other studies demonstrate that sediment could decline 15-80% if planned dams and river diversions are fully implemented. We validate these modeled ranges by developing a comprehensive field-based sediment budget that quantifies the supply of Ganges-Brahmaputra river sediment under varying Holocene climate conditions. Our data reveal natural responses in sediment supply comparable to previously modeled results and suggest that increased sediment delivery may be capable of offsetting accelerated sea-level rise. This prospect for a naturally sustained Ganges-Brahmaputra delta presents possibilities beyond the dystopian future often posed for this system, but the implementation of currently proposed dams and diversions would preclude such opportunities.

Chaos in a simple model of a delta network.

The flux partitioning in delta networks controls how deltas build land and generate stratigraphy. Here, we study flux-partitioning dynamics in a delta network using a simple numerical model consisting of two orders of bifurcations. Previous work on single bifurcations has shown periodic behavior arising due to the interplay between channel deepening and downstream deposition. We find that coupling between upstream and downstream bifurcations can lead to chaos; despite its simplicity, our model generates surprisingly complex aperiodic yet bounded dynamics. Our model exhibits sensitive dependence on initial conditions, the hallmark signature of chaos, implying long-term unpredictability of delta networks. However, estimates of the predictability horizon suggest substantial room for improvement in delta-network modeling before fundamental limits on predictability are encountered. We also observe periodic windows, implying that a change in forcing (e.g., due to climate change) could cause a delta to switch from predictable to unpredictable or vice versa. We test our model by using it to generate stratigraphy; converting the temporal Lyapunov exponent to vertical distance using the mean sedimentation rate, we observe qualitatively realistic patterns such as upwards fining and scale-dependent compensation statistics, consistent with ancient and experimental systems. We suggest that chaotic behavior may be common in geomorphic systems and that it implies fundamental bounds on their predictability. We conclude that while delta "weather" (precise configuration) is unpredictable in the long-term, delta "climate" (statistical behavior) is predictable.

Natural processes in delta restoration: application to the Mississippi Delta.

Restoration of river deltas involves diverting sediment and water from major channels into adjoining drowned areas, where the sediment can build new land and provide a platform for regenerating wetland ecosystems. Except for local engineered structures at the points of diversion, restoration mainly relies on natural delta-building processes. Present understanding of such processes is sufficient to provide a basis for determining the feasibility of restoration projects through quantitative estimates of land-building rates and sustainable wetland area under different scenarios of sediment supply, subsidence, and sea-level rise. We are not yet to the point of being able to predict the evolution of a restored delta in detail. Predictions of delta evolution are based on field studies of active deltas, deltas in mine-tailings ponds, experimental deltas, and countless natural experiments contained in the stratigraphic record. These studies provide input for a variety of mechanistic delta models, ranging from radially averaged formulations to more detailed models that can resolve channels, topography, and ecosystem processes. Especially exciting areas for future research include understanding the mechanisms by which deltaic channel networks self-organize, grow, and distribute sediment and nutrients over the delta surface and coupling these to ecosystem processes, especially the interplay of topography, network geometry, and ecosystem dynamics.

Comment on "Wetland sedimentation from hurricanes Katrina and Rita".

Turner et al. (Reports, 20 October 2006, p. 449) measured sedimentation from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in coastal Louisiana and inferred that storm deposition overwhelms direct Mississippi River sediment input. However, their annualized hurricane deposition rate is overestimated, whereas riverine deposition is underestimated by at least an order of magnitude. Their numbers do not provide a credible basis for decisions about coastal restoration.