Reduced pertussis disease severity in infants following the introduction of pertussis vaccination of pregnant women in Spain, 2015-2019.

BACKGROUND: Maternal pertussis vaccination during the third trimester of pregnancy was implemented in 2015 in Spain, reaching a national coverage of 84% in 2019. In this ecological study, we investigated whether there was a change in the disease severity for pertussis in infants upon introduction of prenatal pertussis vaccination. METHODS: We performed a time-trend analysis of infant pertussis hospitalizations during 2005-2019 in Spain using national register data. Annual hospitalization rates per 100,000 population and the mean length of hospitalization were calculated for infants < 3 months of age (target group benefiting from the prenatal vaccination) and a reference group aged 3-11 months. We compared overall rates and annual percent changes of the above variables in both groups for the time period before (2005-2014) and after vaccination introduction (2015-2019), using segmented Poisson regression. RESULTS: During the pre-vaccination period, infants aged 0-2 months had a 5-times higher rate of pertussis hospitalization and spent on average 50 % longer in hospital than the reference group. After the maternal vaccination introduction, the hospitalization rate decreased more rapidly in infants aged 0-2 months than in infants aged 3-11 months: annual reduction of 34 % (95 % CI: 31-38) versus 26 % (95 % CI: 21-31) in the hospitalization rate and 13 % (95 % CI: 11-15) versus 6 % (95 % CI: 2-9) in the mean hospital stay, respectively. In 2019, the mean hospital stay for pertussis was about 4.5 days in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal pertussis vaccination in Spain led to a reduction in disease severity in the target group as compared to older infants, highlighting the need for increased efforts on educating healthcare professionals on the importance of maternal vaccinations.

A computational framework for modelling infectious disease policy based on age and household structure with applications to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The widespread, and in many countries unprecedented, use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for mathematical models which can estimate the impact of these measures while accounting for the highly heterogeneous risk profile of COVID-19. Models accounting either for age structure or the household structure necessary to explicitly model many NPIs are commonly used in infectious disease modelling, but models incorporating both levels of structure present substantial computational and mathematical challenges due to their high dimensionality. Here we present a modelling framework for the spread of an epidemic that includes explicit representation of age structure and household structure. Our model is formulated in terms of tractable systems of ordinary differential equations for which we provide an open-source Python implementation. Such tractability leads to significant benefits for model calibration, exhaustive evaluation of possible parameter values, and interpretability of results. We demonstrate the flexibility of our model through four policy case studies, where we quantify the likely benefits of the following measures which were either considered or implemented in the UK during the current COVID-19 pandemic: control of within- and between-household mixing through NPIs; formation of support bubbles during lockdown periods; out-of-household isolation (OOHI); and temporary relaxation of NPIs during holiday periods. Our ordinary differential equation formulation and associated analysis demonstrate that multiple dimensions of risk stratification and social structure can be incorporated into infectious disease models without sacrificing mathematical tractability. This model and its software implementation expand the range of tools available to infectious disease policy analysts.

Spatially resolved simulations of the spread of COVID-19 in three European countries.

We explore the spatial and temporal spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus under containment measures in three European countries based on fits to data of the early outbreak. Using data from Spain and Italy, we estimate an age dependent infection fatality ratio for SARS-CoV-2, as well as risks of hospitalization and intensive care admission. We use them in a model that simulates the dynamics of the virus using an age structured, spatially detailed agent based approach, that explicitly incorporates governmental interventions and changes in mobility and contact patterns occurred during the COVID-19 outbreak in each country. Our simulations reproduce several of the features of its spatio-temporal spread in the three countries studied. They show that containment measures combined with high density are responsible for the containment of cases within densely populated areas, and that spread to less densely populated areas occurred during the late stages of the first wave. The capability to reproduce observed features of the spatio-temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 makes this model a potential candidate for forecasting the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in other settings, and we recommend its application in low and lower-middle income countries which remain understudied.

The role of animals as a source of antimicrobial resistant nontyphoidal Salmonella causing invasive and non-invasive human disease in Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) are associated with both diarrhea and bacteremia. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is common in NTS in low-middle income countries, but the major source(s) of AMR NTS in humans are not known. Here, we aimed to assess the role of animals as a source of AMR in human NTS infections in Vietnam. We retrospectively combined and analyzed 672 NTS human and animal isolates from four studies in southern Vietnam and compared serovars, sequence types (ST), and AMR profiles. We generated a population structure of circulating organisms and aimed to attribute sources of AMR in NTS causing invasive and noninvasive disease in humans using Bayesian multinomial mixture models. RESULTS: Among 672 NTS isolates, 148 (22%) originated from human blood, 211 (31%) from human stool, and 313 (47%) from animal stool. The distribution of serovars, STs, and AMR profiles differed among sources; serovars Enteritidis, Typhimurium, and Weltevreden were the most common in human blood, human stool, and animals, respectively. We identified an association between the source of NTS and AMR profile; the majority of AMR isolates were isolated from human blood (p < 0.001). Modelling by ST-AMR profile found chickens and pigs were likely the major sources of AMR NTS in human blood and stool, respectively; but unsampled sources were found to be a major contributor. CONCLUSIONS: Antimicrobial use in food animals is hypothesized to play role in the emergence of AMR in human pathogens. Our cross-sectional population-based approach suggests a significant overlap between AMR in NTS in animals and humans, but animal NTS does explain the full extent of AMR in human NTS infections in Vietnam.

Differential antimicrobial susceptibility profiles between symptomatic and asymptomatic non-typhoidal Salmonella infections in Vietnamese children.

Non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) serovars, sequences types and antimicrobial susceptibility profiles have specific associations with animal and human infections in Vietnam. Antimicrobial resistance may have an effect on the manifestation of human NTS infections, with isolates from asymptomatic individuals being more susceptible to antimicrobials than those associated with animals and human diarrhoea.

Increasing incidence of invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella infections in Queensland, Australia, 2007-2016.

Nontyphoidal Salmonella is a major contributor to the global burden of foodborne disease, with invasive infections contributing substantially to illnesses and deaths. We analyzed notifiable disease surveillance data for invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella disease (iNTS) in Queensland, Australia. We used Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios by gender, age group, and geographical area over 2007-2016. There were 995 iNTS cases, with 945 (92%) confirmed by blood culture. Salmonella Virchow accounted for 254 (25%) of 1,001 unique iNTS isolates. Invasive NTS disease notification rates peaked among infants, during the summer months, and in outback Queensland where the notification rate (95% CI) was 17.3 (14.5-20.1) cases per 100,000 population. Overall, there was a 6,5% annual increase (p<0.001) in iNTS disease incidence. In conclusion, high iNTS rates among males, infants, and the elderly require investigation of household level risk factors for NTS infection. Controlling Salmonella Virchow infections is a public health priority.

Health Outcomes from Multidrug-Resistant Salmonella Infections in High-Income Countries: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Salmonella is a leading cause of foodborne enterocolitis worldwide. Antimicrobial use in food animals is the driving force for antimicrobial resistance among Salmonella particularly in high-income countries. Nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) infections that are multidrug resistant (MDR) (nonsusceptible to ≥1 agent in ≥3 antimicrobial categories) may result in more severe health outcomes, although these effects have not been systematically examined. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine impacts of MDR NTS on disease outcomes in high-income settings. METHODS: We systematically reviewed the literature from scientific databases, including PubMed, Scopus, and grey literature sources, using preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. We included peer-reviewed publications of case-control and cohort studies, outbreak investigations, and published theses, imposing no language restriction. We included publications from January 1, 1990 through September 15, 2016 from high-income countries as classified by the World Bank, and extracted data on duration of illness, hospitalization, morbidity and mortality of MDR, and pan-susceptible NTS infections. RESULTS: After removing duplicates, the initial search revealed 4258 articles. After further screening, 16 eligible studies were identified for the systematic review, but, only 9 of these were included in the meta-analysis. NTS serotypes differed among the reported studies, but serotypes Typhimurium, Enteritidis, Newport, and Heidelberg were the most often reported MDR pathogens. Salmonella infections that were MDR were associated with excess bloodstream infections (odds ratio [OR] 1.73; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32-2.27), more frequent hospitalizations (OR 2.51; 95% CI 1.38-4.58), and higher mortality (OR 3.54; 95% CI 1.10-11.40) when compared with pan-susceptible isolates. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that MDR NTS infections have more serious health outcomes compared with pan-susceptible strains. With the emergence of MDR Salmonella strains in high-income countries, it is crucial to reduce the use of antimicrobials in animals and humans, and intervene to prevent foodborne infections.

Reconstruction Approach to a Rare Case of Acquired Scrotal Giant Muscular Hamartoma.

Acquired scrotal giant muscular hamartoma is an uncommon benign lesion with fewer than 10 documented cases all over the world. It is characterized by a proliferation of dermal smooth muscle bundles of scrotum dartos fascia. The authors report a rare case of acquired scrotal giant muscular hamartoma, which occurred in a 70-year-old severely obese and diabetic man presenting with a progressive scrotal enlargement and swelling in the last year, causing marked reduction in quality of life and cosmetic problems. The patient underwent a wide excision of the hamartomatous lesion, and then, a reductive scrotoplasty and autologous skin grafting of penis were performed. Anatomopathological examination showed an acquired scrotal giant muscular hamartoma arising from muscular fascia of dartos. This surgical technique is a valid, safe, effective, and minimally invasive option to treat this pathology, achieving both excellent functional and aesthetic results, with a marked improvement of the patient's quality of life.

Periodicity, synchronization and persistence in pre-vaccination measles.

We investigate the relationship between periodicity, synchronization and persistence of measles through simulations of geographical spread on the British Isles. We show that the establishment of areas of biennial periodicity depends on the interplay between human mobility and local population size and that locations undergoing biennial cycles tend to be, on average, synchronized in phase. We show however that occurrences of opposition of phase are actually quite common and correspond to stable dynamics. We also show that persistence is strictly related to circulation of the disease in the highly populated area of London and that this ensures survival of the disease even when human mobility drops to extremely low levels.

Impact of human mobility on the periodicities and mechanisms underlying measles dynamics.

Three main mechanisms determining the dynamics of measles have been described in the literature: invasion in disease-free lands leading to import-dependent outbreaks, switching between annual and biennial attractors driven by seasonality, and amplification of stochastic fluctuations close to the endemic equilibrium. Here, we study the importance of the three mechanisms using a detailed geographical description of human mobility. We perform individual-based simulations of an SIR model using a gridded description of human settlements on top of which we implement human mobility according to the radiation model. Parallel computation permits detailed simulations of large areas. Focusing our research on the British Isles, we show that human mobility has an impact on the periodicity of measles outbreaks. Depending on the level of mobility, we observe at the global level multi-annual, annual or biennial cycles. The periodicity observed globally, however, differs from the local epidemic cycles: different locations show different mechanisms at work depending on both population size and mobility. As a result, the periodicities observed locally depend on the interplay between the local population size and human mobility.

Why do protein folding rates correlate with metrics of native topology?

For almost 15 years, the experimental correlation between protein folding rates and the contact order parameter has been under scrutiny. Here, we use a simple simulation model combined with a native-centric interaction potential to investigate the physical roots of this empirical observation. We simulate a large set of circular permutants, thus eliminating dependencies of the folding rate on other protein properties (e.g. stability). We show that the rate-contact order correlation is a consequence of the fact that, in high contact order structures, the contact order of the transition state ensemble closely mirrors the contact order of the native state. This happens because, in these structures, the native topology is represented in the transition state through the formation of a network of tertiary interactions that are distinctively long-ranged.

Stochastic fluctuations in the susceptible-infective-recovered model with distributed infectious periods.

We investigate a stochastic model of infection dynamics based on the Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (SIR) model, where the distribution of the recovery times can be tuned, interpolating between exponentially distributed recovery times, as in the standard SIR model, and recovery after a fixed infectious period. This is achieved by introducing L infective classes, as compared to 1 in the standard model. For large populations, the spectrum of fluctuations around the deterministic limit of the model can be computed analytically. The demographic stochasticity has the effect of transforming the decaying oscillations of the deterministic model into sustained oscillations in the stochastic formulation. We find that the amplification of these stochastic oscillations increases with L , as well as their coherence in frequency. For large values of L (of the order of 10 and greater), the height and position of the peak of the power spectra changes little and is described well by the model with fixed recovery period (L-->infinity) . In this limit we give a closed-form expression for the power spectrum of fluctuations of infective individuals.