Development of a short-term prognostic model for anti-N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor encephalitis in Chinese patients.

BACKGROUND: Recognizing the predictors of poor short-term prognosis after first-line immunotherapy in patients with anti-N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (anti-NMDAR) encephalitis is essential for individualized treatment strategy. The objective of this study was to ascertain the factors that forecast short-term prognosis in patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis, develop a prognostic prediction model, and authenticate its efficacy in an external validation cohort. Further, all patients were followed-up long-term to assess the factors of long-term outcome and relapses. METHODS: A prospective enrollment of patients diagnosed with anti-NMDAR encephalitis was conducted across five clinical centers in China from June 2014 to Mar 2022. The enrolled patients were divided into the derivation and validation sets based on enrollment time. The short-term prognostic model was visualized using a nomogram. Further, all patients were followed-up long-term to assess the factors of long-term outcome. RESULTS: This study found that poor short-term prognosis was a risk factor for poor long-term outcome (6-month prognosis, OR 29.792, 95%CI 6.507-136.398, p < 0.001; 12-month prognosis, OR 15.756, 95%CI 3.384-73.075, p < 0.001; 24-month prognosis, OR 5.500, 95%CI 1.045-28.955, p = 0.044). Abnormal behavior or cognitive dysfunction (OR 8.57, 95%CI 1.48-49.79, p = 0.017), consciousness impairment (OR19.32, 95%CI 3.03-123.09, p = 0.002), autonomic dysfunction or central hypoventilation (OR 5.66, 95%CI 1.25-25.75, p = 0.025), CSF pleocytosis (OR 4.33, 95%CI 1.48-12.65, p = 0.007), abnormal EEG (OR 5.48, 95% CI 1.09-27.54, p = 0.039) were independent predictors for a poor short-term prognosis after first-line immunotherapy. A nomogram that incorporated those factors showed good discrimination and calibration abilities. The area under the curve (AUC) for the prognostic model were 0.866 (95%CI: 0.798-0.934) with a sensitivity of 0.761 and specificity of 0.869. CONCLUSION: We established and validated a prognostic model that can provide individual prediction of short-term prognosis after first-line immunotherapy for patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis. This practical prognostic model may help neurologists to predict the short-term prognosis early and potentially assist in adjusting appropriate treatment timely.

Validation of the NEOS score in Chinese patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis.

OBJECTIVE: The performance of anti-NMDAR Encephalitis One-Year Functional Status (NEOS) in predicting the 1-year functional status in Chinese patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis is unknown. METHODS: We recruited patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis from the Multicenter and Prospective Clinical Registry Study of Anti-NMDAR Encephalitis in Beijing Area. Patients were followed up for 1 year. We defined the poor functional status as a modified Rankin Scale score of more than 2 and good functional status as a modified Rankin Scale score of no more than 2. We performed a receiver-operator characteristic analysis to assess the discriminatory power of the NEOS score in predicting the 1-year functional status by using the area under the curve (AUC). Calibration was assessed by Pearson correlation coefficient and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests. RESULTS: Among the 111 patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis recruited from 364 potentially eligible participants, 87 (78.4%) had good functional status at 1 year, whereas the remaining 24 (21.6%) had poor functional status. The AUC of the NEOS score for 1-year poor functional status was 0.86 (95% CI 0.78-0.93, p < 0.001). The increased NEOS was associated with higher risk of 1-year poor functional status in patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis. CONCLUSIONS: The NEOS score is considered a reliable predictor of the risk of 1-year poor functional status in Chinese patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis. This score could help to estimate the velocity of clinical improvement in advance. CLINICALTRIALGOV IDENTIFIER: NCT02443350. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class III evidence that in patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis, the NEOS score predicts 1-year functional status.

Preliminary application of CT perfusion source images for evaluating regional collateral circulation in unilateral Moyamoya disease.

BACKGROUND: Collateral flow is associated with clinical outcomes for patients with Moyamoya disease and served as a parameter for patient selection of therapeutic strategies. Therefore, we explored whether a noninvasive imaging modality, computed tomography perfusion (CTP) source images (CTP-Sis), could be used to identify the presence and intensity of collateral flow using digital subtraction angiography (DSA) as a gold standard for collateral flow. METHODS: CTP-Sis and DSA were performed for 24 patients with unilateral Moyamoya disease. A collateral grading system was developed based on arterial and venous phase CTP-Sis, imitating the DSA score system. Two neuroradiologists scored the DSA images using a collateral grading scale for the regions of interest corresponding to the Alberta Stroke Program Early computed tomography Score (ASPECTS) methodology. Another two neuroradiologists scored CTP-Sis in a similar manner. Agreement between the CTP-Sis and DSA consensus scores was determined, including kappa statistics. RESULTS: The agreement between the CTP-Sis and DSA consensus readings was moderate to strong, with a weighted kappa value of 0.768 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.703-0.832], but there was a better agreement for readers of CTP-Sis, as compared with those of DSA. The sensitivity and specificity for identifying collaterals with CTP-Sis were 0.714 (95% CI, 0.578-0.851) and 0.995 (95% CI, 0.985-1.000), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: CTP-Sis could help identify in a noninvasive manner the presence and intensity of collateral flow in patients with unilateral Moyamoya disease using DSA as a gold standard. Further study with a large number of cases is warranted. Further application of this method to other cerebrovascular diseases including acute ischemic stroke can also be warranted.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging Markers of Cerebral Small Vessel Disease in Hematoma Expansion of Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: Hematoma expansion is an independent risk factor of unfavorable outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), which always occurs in the early phase after symptoms onset. The relationship between underlying small vessel disease (SVD) and hematoma expansion was inconsistent in patients with ICH. We aimed to investigate the relationship between magnetic resonance (MR) characteristics of SVD and hematoma expansion in patients with ICH within 72 hours after symptoms onset. METHODS: Data were derived from a cohort of biological sample collection from April 2014 to April 2016. We recruited patients aged 18 years or older with a baseline and follow-up computed tomography within 72 hours after symptom onset, as well as an MR imaging within 3 months before or after ICH. Hematoma expansion was defined as an increase in volume between baseline and final hematoma volume exceeding 6 mL or 33% of the baseline volume. Multivariate logistic regression was used to explore the association between clinical characteristics, imaging markers, total SVD score, and hematoma expansion in patients with ICH. RESULTS: A total of 103 patients experienced hematoma expansion among the 263 enrolled patients (mean age 53.4 ± 14.0 years, 76.4% male). Electrocardiogram abnormal rhythm, fewer non-lobar microbleeds, lower plasma homocysteine concentration, and smaller baseline hematoma volume independently predicted the risk of hematoma expansion (P = .004, .021, .001, and .024, respectively). Odds ratios ranged from 1.02 to 3.72. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggested that the use of MR markers revealing underlying SVD may help to identify patients with ICH with potential hematoma expansion.

The max-intracerebral hemorrhage score predicts long-term outcome of intracerebral hemorrhage.

AIMS: Little is known about the performance of the maximally treated intracerebral hemorrhage (max-ICH) score in predicting unfavorable long-term functional outcome and death in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in China. We aimed to validate the performance of the max-ICH score and compared it with other recognized scores. METHODS: We derived data from the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR). Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to measure the score performance. We compared the performance of max-ICH score with six recognized models, including the ICH score, ICH functional outcome score (ICH-FOS), Essen-ICH score, modified intracerebral hemorrhage (MICH) score, intracerebral hemorrhage grading scale (ICH-GS), and functional outcome (FUNC) score. RESULTS: A total of 2581 patients with spontaneous ICH were enrolled in the study. The max-ICH score was similar or superior to the six existing scores in predicting long-term unfavorable functional outcome after ICH with good discrimination (AUC 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81-0.84) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.19). For predicting death, the AUC of max-ICH was 0.81 (95% CI 0.79-0.83). CONCLUSIONS: The easy-to-use max-ICH score is a reliable tool to predict unfavorable long-term (12-month) functional outcome and death after intracerebral hemorrhage in the Chinese population.

THRIVE-c score predicts clinical outcomes in Chinese patients after thrombolysis.

Objectives: Total Health Risks in Vascular Events-calculation score (THRIVE-c) is an easy use and patient-specific outcome predictive score by computing the logistic equation with patients' continuous variables. We validated its performance in Chinese ischemic stroke patients receiving intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) therapy. Materials and Methods: We used data from the Thrombolysis Implementation and Monitor of Acute Ischemic Stroke in China (TIMS-China) registry to validate the THRIVE-c score in patients receiving IVT therapy. We evaluated the score performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) was used to compare THRIVE-c score performance with other scores in predicting clinical outcome and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (SICH). Calibration was assessed by Pearson correlation coefficient and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results: Among the 1,128 patients receiving IVT therapy included in this study, AUC of the THRIVE-c score for 3-month SICH, poor functional outcome, and mortality rate was 0.70 (95% CI: 0.63-0.76), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.73-0.78) and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.77-0.85), respectively. The increased THRIVE-c score was associated with higher risk of developing SICH, poor functional outcome, or mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke at 3 months after thrombolysis. The performance of the THRIVE-c score was similar to or superior to other predictive scores (THRIVE score, SEDAN score, DRAGON score, HIAT2 score). Conclusions: The THRIVE-c score reliably predicts the risks of 3-month SICH, poor functional outcome, and mortality after IVT therapy in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke.