Projection of the health and economic impacts of Chronic kidney disease in the Chilean population.

BACKGROUND: Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) is a leading public health problem, with substantial burden and economic implications for healthcare systems, mainly due to renal replacement treatment (RRT) for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). The aim of this study is to develop a multistate predictive model to estimate the future burden of CKD in Chile, given the high and rising RRT rates, population ageing, and prevalence of comorbidities contributing to CKD. METHODS: A dynamic stock and flow model was developed to simulate CKD progression in the Chilean population aged 40 years and older, up to the year 2041, adopting the perspective of the Chilean public healthcare system. The model included six states replicating progression of CKD, which was assumed in 1-year cycles and was categorised as slow, medium or fast progression, based on the underlying conditions. We simulated two different treatment scenarios. Only direct costs of treatment were included, and a 3% per year discount rate was applied after the first year. We calibrated the model based on international evidence; the exploration of uncertainty (95% credibility intervals) was undertaken with probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: By the year 2041, there is an expected increase in cases of CKD stages 3a to ESKD, ceteris paribus, from 442,265 (95% UI 441,808-442,722) in 2021 to 735,513 (734,455-736,570) individuals. Direct costs of CKD stages 3a to ESKD would rise from 322.4M GBP (321.7-323.1) in 2021 to 1,038.6M GBP (1,035.5-1,041.8) in 2041. A reduction in the progression rates of the disease by the inclusion of SGLT2 inhibitors and pre-dialysis treatment would decrease the number of individuals worsening to stages 5 and ESKD, thus reducing the total costs of CKD by 214.6M GBP in 2041 to 824.0M GBP (822.7-825.3). CONCLUSIONS: This model can be a useful tool for healthcare planning, with development of preventive or treatment plans to reduce and delay the progression of the disease and thus the anticipated increase in the healthcare costs of CKD.

Chronic kidney disease in adults aged 18 years and older in Chile: findings from the cross-sectional Chilean National Health Surveys 2009-2010 and 2016-2017.

OBJECTIVES: This study estimates the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) among Chilean adults and examines its associations with sociodemographic characteristics, health behaviours and comorbidities. DESIGN: Analysis of cross-sectional data from the two most recent large nationally representative Chilean Health Surveys (Encuesta Nacional de Salud, ENS) 2009-2010 and 2016-2017. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged 18+ years with serum creatine data (ENS 2009-2010: n=4583; ENS 2016-2017: n=5084). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Reduced kidney function (CKD stages 3a-5) based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2) was the primary outcome measure. Using the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR ≥30 mg/g), increased albuminuria was ascertained among adults aged 40+ years with diabetes and/or hypertension. Both outcomes were analysed using logistic regression with results summarised using OR. CKD prevalence (stages 1-5) among adults aged 40+ years was estimated including participants with an eGFR of >60 mL/min/1.73 m2 but with increased albuminuria (stages 1-2). RESULTS: Overall, 3.2% (95% CI: 2.4% to 3.8%) of adults aged 18+ in ENS 2016-2017 had reduced kidney function. After full adjustment, participants with hypertension (OR: 2.37; 95% CI: 1.19 to 4.74) and those with diabetes (OR: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.03 to 2.66) had significantly higher odds of reduced kidney function. In ENS 2016-2017, 15.5% (13.5% to 17.8%) of adults aged 40+ years with diabetes and/or hypertension had increased albuminuria. Being obese versus normal-weight (OR: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.08 to 2.54) and having both diabetes and hypertension versus having diabetes alone (OR: 2.30; 95% CI: 1.34 to 3.95) were significantly associated with higher odds of increased albuminuria in fully-adjusted analyses. At least 15.4% of adults aged 40+ years in ENS 2016-2017 had CKD (stages 1-5), including the 9.6% of adults at CKD stages 1-2. CONCLUSIONS: Prevention strategies and Chilean guidelines should consider the high percentage of adults aged 40 years and older at CKD stages 1-2.