Predicting cardiovascular disease risk using photoplethysmography and deep learning.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are responsible for a large proportion of premature deaths in low- and middle-income countries. Early CVD detection and intervention is critical in these populations, yet many existing CVD risk scores require a physical examination or lab measurements, which can be challenging in such health systems due to limited accessibility. We investigated the potential to use photoplethysmography (PPG), a sensing technology available on most smartphones that can potentially enable large-scale screening at low cost, for CVD risk prediction. We developed a deep learning PPG-based CVD risk score (DLS) to predict the probability of having major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiovascular death) within ten years, given only age, sex, smoking status and PPG as predictors. We compare the DLS with the office-based refit-WHO score, which adopts the shared predictors from WHO and Globorisk scores (age, sex, smoking status, height, weight and systolic blood pressure) but refitted on the UK Biobank (UKB) cohort. All models were trained on a development dataset (141,509 participants) and evaluated on a geographically separate test (54,856 participants) dataset, both from UKB. DLS's C-statistic (71.1%, 95% CI 69.9-72.4) is non-inferior to office-based refit-WHO score (70.9%, 95% CI 69.7-72.2; non-inferiority margin of 2.5%, p<0.01) in the test dataset. The calibration of the DLS is satisfactory, with a 1.8% mean absolute calibration error. Adding DLS features to the office-based score increases the C-statistic by 1.0% (95% CI 0.6-1.4). DLS predicts ten-year MACE risk comparable with the office-based refit-WHO score. Interpretability analyses suggest that the DLS-extracted features are related to PPG waveform morphology and are independent of heart rate. Our study provides a proof-of-concept and suggests the potential of a PPG-based approach strategies for community-based primary prevention in resource-limited regions.

Assistive AI in Lung Cancer Screening: A Retrospective Multinational Study in the United States and Japan.

Purpose To evaluate the impact of an artificial intelligence (AI) assistant for lung cancer screening on multinational clinical workflows. Materials and Methods An AI assistant for lung cancer screening was evaluated on two retrospective randomized multireader multicase studies where 627 (141 cancer-positive cases) low-dose chest CT cases were each read twice (with and without AI assistance) by experienced thoracic radiologists (six U.S.-based or six Japan-based radiologists), resulting in a total of 7524 interpretations. Positive cases were defined as those within 2 years before a pathology-confirmed lung cancer diagnosis. Negative cases were defined as those without any subsequent cancer diagnosis for at least 2 years and were enriched for a spectrum of diverse nodules. The studies measured the readers' level of suspicion (on a 0-100 scale), country-specific screening system scoring categories, and management recommendations. Evaluation metrics included the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for level of suspicion and sensitivity and specificity of recall recommendations. Results With AI assistance, the radiologists' AUC increased by 0.023 (0.70 to 0.72; P = .02) for the U.S. study and by 0.023 (0.93 to 0.96; P = .18) for the Japan study. Scoring system specificity for actionable findings increased 5.5% (57% to 63%; P < .001) for the U.S. study and 6.7% (23% to 30%; P < .001) for the Japan study. There was no evidence of a difference in corresponding sensitivity between unassisted and AI-assisted reads for the U.S. (67.3% to 67.5%; P = .88) and Japan (98% to 100%; P > .99) studies. Corresponding stand-alone AI AUC system performance was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.70, 0.81) and 0.88 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.97) for the U.S.- and Japan-based datasets, respectively. Conclusion The concurrent AI interface improved lung cancer screening specificity in both U.S.- and Japan-based reader studies, meriting further study in additional international screening environments. Keywords: Assistive Artificial Intelligence, Lung Cancer Screening, CT Supplemental material is available for this article. Published under a CC BY 4.0 license.

An intentional approach to managing bias in general purpose embedding models.

Advances in machine learning for health care have brought concerns about bias from the research community; specifically, the introduction, perpetuation, or exacerbation of care disparities. Reinforcing these concerns is the finding that medical images often reveal signals about sensitive attributes in ways that are hard to pinpoint by both algorithms and people. This finding raises a question about how to best design general purpose pretrained embeddings (GPPEs, defined as embeddings meant to support a broad array of use cases) for building downstream models that are free from particular types of bias. The downstream model should be carefully evaluated for bias, and audited and improved as appropriate. However, in our view, well intentioned attempts to prevent the upstream components-GPPEs-from learning sensitive attributes can have unintended consequences on the downstream models. Despite producing a veneer of technical neutrality, the resultant end-to-end system might still be biased or poorly performing. We present reasons, by building on previously published data, to support the reasoning that GPPEs should ideally contain as much information as the original data contain, and highlight the perils of trying to remove sensitive attributes from a GPPE. We also emphasise that downstream prediction models trained for specific tasks and settings, whether developed using GPPEs or not, should be carefully designed and evaluated to avoid bias that makes models vulnerable to issues such as distributional shift. These evaluations should be done by a diverse team, including social scientists, on a diverse cohort representing the full breadth of the patient population for which the final model is intended.

Deep Learning Detection of Active Pulmonary Tuberculosis at Chest Radiography Matched the Clinical Performance of Radiologists.

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends chest radiography to facilitate tuberculosis (TB) screening. However, chest radiograph interpretation expertise remains limited in many regions. Purpose To develop a deep learning system (DLS) to detect active pulmonary TB on chest radiographs and compare its performance to that of radiologists. Materials and Methods A DLS was trained and tested using retrospective chest radiographs (acquired between 1996 and 2020) from 10 countries. To improve generalization, large-scale chest radiograph pretraining, attention pooling, and semisupervised learning ("noisy-student") were incorporated. The DLS was evaluated in a four-country test set (China, India, the United States, and Zambia) and in a mining population in South Africa, with positive TB confirmed with microbiological tests or nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT). The performance of the DLS was compared with that of 14 radiologists. The authors studied the efficacy of the DLS compared with that of nine radiologists using the Obuchowski-Rockette-Hillis procedure. Given WHO targets of 90% sensitivity and 70% specificity, the operating point of the DLS (0.45) was prespecified to favor sensitivity. Results A total of 165 754 images in 22 284 subjects (mean age, 45 years; 21% female) were used for model development and testing. In the four-country test set (1236 subjects, 17% with active TB), the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the DLS was higher than those for all nine India-based radiologists, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.89 (95% CI: 0.87, 0.91). Compared with these radiologists, at the prespecified operating point, the DLS sensitivity was higher (88% vs 75%, P < .001) and specificity was noninferior (79% vs 84%, P = .004). Trends were similar within other patient subgroups, in the South Africa data set, and across various TB-specific chest radiograph findings. In simulations, the use of the DLS to identify likely TB-positive chest radiographs for NAAT confirmation reduced the cost by 40%-80% per TB-positive patient detected. Conclusion A deep learning method was found to be noninferior to radiologists for the determination of active tuberculosis on digital chest radiographs. © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by van Ginneken in this issue.

Mutant-bin: unsupervised haplotype estimation of viral population diversity without reference genome.

High genetic variability in viral populations plays an important role in disease progression, pathogenesis, and drug resistance. The last few years has seen significant progress in the development of methods for reconstruction of viral populations using data from next-generation sequencing technologies. These methods identify the differences between individual haplotypes by mapping the short reads to a reference genome. Much less has been published about resolving the population structure when a reference genome is lacking or is not well-defined, which severely limits the application of these new technologies to resolve virus population structure. We describe a computational framework, called Mutant-Bin, for clustering individual haplotypes in a viral population and determining their prevalence based on a set of deep sequencing reads. The main advantages of our method are that: (i) it enables determination of the population structure and haplotype frequencies when a reference genome is lacking; (ii) the method is unsupervised-the number of haplotypes does not have to be specified in advance; and (iii) it identifies the polymorphic sites that co-occur in a subset of haplotypes and the frequency with which they appear in the viral population. The method was evaluated on simulated reads with sequencing errors and 454 pyrosequencing reads from HIV samples. Our method clustered a high percentage of haplotypes with low false-positive rates, even at low genetic diversity.

Unsupervised two-way clustering of metagenomic sequences.

A major challenge facing metagenomics is the development of tools for the characterization of functional and taxonomic content of vast amounts of short metagenome reads. The efficacy of clustering methods depends on the number of reads in the dataset, the read length and relative abundances of source genomes in the microbial community. In this paper, we formulate an unsupervised naive Bayes multispecies, multidimensional mixture model for reads from a metagenome. We use the proposed model to cluster metagenomic reads by their species of origin and to characterize the abundance of each species. We model the distribution of word counts along a genome as a Gaussian for shorter, frequent words and as a Poisson for longer words that are rare. We employ either a mixture of Gaussians or mixture of Poissons to model reads within each bin. Further, we handle the high-dimensionality and sparsity associated with the data, by grouping the set of words comprising the reads, resulting in a two-way mixture model. Finally, we demonstrate the accuracy and applicability of this method on simulated and real metagenomes. Our method can accurately cluster reads as short as 100 bps and is robust to varying abundances, divergences and read lengths.