Incidence of 'Low-Risk but Not No-Risk' Features of Cancer Prior to High-Risk Feature Occurrence: An Observational Cohort Study in Primary Care.

Diagnosing cancer may be expedited by decreasing referral risk threshold. Clinical Practice Research Datalink participants (≥40 years) had a positive predictive value (PPV) ≥3% feature for breast, lung, colorectal, oesophagogastric, pancreatic, renal, bladder, prostatic, ovarian, endometrial or laryngeal cancer in 2016. The numbers of participants with features representing a 1-1.99% or 2-2.99% PPV for same cancer in the previous year were reported, alongside the time difference between meeting the ≥3% criteria and the lower threshold criteria. A total of 8616 participants had a PPV ≥3% feature, of whom 365 (4.2%) and 1147 (13.3%), respectively, met 2-2.99% and 1-1.99% criteria in the preceding year. The median time difference was 131 days (Interquartile Range (IQR) 27 to 256) for the 2-2.99% band and 179 days (IQR 58 to 289) for the 1-1.99% band. Results were heterogeneous across cancer sites. For some cancers, participants may progress from presenting lower- to higher-risk features before meeting urgent referral criteria; however, this was not usually the case. The details of specific features across multiple cancer sites will allow for a tailored approach to future reductions in referral thresholds, potentially improving the efficiency of urgent cancer referrals for the benefit both of individuals and the National Health Service (NHS).

Diagnoses after newly recorded abdominal pain in primary care: observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Non-acute abdominal pain in primary care is diagnostically challenging. AIM: To quantify the 1-year cumulative incidence of 35 non-malignant diagnoses and nine cancers in adults after newly recorded abdominal pain in primary care. DESIGN AND SETTING: Observational cohort study of 125 793 Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD records. METHOD: Participants, aged ≥40 years, had newly recorded abdominal pain between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2013. Age- and sex-stratified 1-year cumulative incidence by diagnosis is reported. RESULTS: Most (>70%) participants had no pre-specified diagnoses after newly recorded abdominal pain. Non-malignant diagnoses were most common: upper gastrointestinal problems (gastro-oesophageal reflux disease, hiatus hernia, gastritis, oesophagitis, and gastric/duodenal ulcer) in males and urinary tract infection in females. The incidence of upper gastrointestinal problems plateaued at age ≥60 years (aged 40-59 years: males 4.9%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.6 to 5.1, females 4.0%, 95% CI = 3.8 to 4.2; aged 60-69 years: males 5.8%, 95% CI = 5.4 to 6.2, females 5.4%, 95% CI = 5.1 to 5.8). Urinary tract infection incidence increased with age (aged 40-59 years: females 5.1%, 95% CI = 4.8 to 5.3, males 1.1%, 95% CI = 1.0 to 1.2; aged ≥70 years: females 8.0%, 95% CI = 7.6 to 8.4, males 3.3%, 95% CI = 3.0 to 3.6%). Diverticular disease incidence rose with age, plateauing at 4.2% (95% CI = 3.9 to 4.6) in males aged ≥60 years, increasing to 6.1% (95% CI = 5.8 to 6.4) in females aged ≥70 years. Irritable bowel syndrome incidence was higher in females (aged 40-59 years: 2.9%, 95% CI = 2.7 to 3.1) than males (aged 40-59 years: 2.1%, 95% CI = 1.9 to 2.3), decreasing with age to 1.3% (95% CI = 1.2 to 1.5) in females and 0.6% (95% CI = 0.5 to 0.8) in males aged ≥70 years. CONCLUSION: Although abdominal pain commonly remains unexplained, non-malignant diagnosis are more likely than cancer.

Intra-abdominal cancer risk with abdominal pain: a prospective cohort primary care study.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying cancer risk in primary care patients with abdominal pain informs diagnostic strategies. AIM: To quantify oesophagogastric, colorectal, liver, pancreatic, ovarian, uterine, kidney, and bladder cancer risks associated with newly reported abdominal pain with or without other symptoms, signs, or abnormal blood tests (that is, features) indicative of possible cancer. DESIGN AND SETTING: This was an observational prospective cohort study using Clinical Practice Research Datalink records with English cancer registry linkage. METHOD: The authors studied 125 793 patients aged ≥40 years with newly reported abdominal pain in primary care between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2013. The 1-year cumulative incidence of cancer, and the composite 1-year cumulative incidence of cancers with shared additional features, stratified by age and sex are reported. RESULTS: With abdominal pain, overall risk was greater in men and increased with age, reaching 3.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.0 to 3.7, predominantly colorectal cancer 1.9%, 95% CI = 1.6 to 2.1) in men ≥70 years, compared with their expected incidence of 0.88% (95% CI = 0.87 to 0.89). Additional features increased cancer risk; for example, for men, colorectal or pancreatic cancer risk with abdominal pain plus diarrhoea at 60-69 years of age was 3.1% (95% CI = 1.9 to 4.9) predominantly colorectal cancer (2.2%, 95% CI = 1.2 to 3.8). CONCLUSION: Abdominal pain increases intra-abdominal cancer risk nearly fourfold in men aged ≥70 years, exceeding the 3% threshold warranting investigation. This threshold is surpassed for the >60 years age group only with additional features. These results will help direct appropriate referral and testing strategies for patients based on their demographic profile and reporting features. The authors suggest non-invasive strategies first, such as faecal immunochemical testing, with safety-netting in a shared decision-making framework.

The impact of changing risk thresholds on the number of people in England eligible for urgent investigation for possible cancer: an observational cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Expediting cancer diagnosis may be achieved by targeted decreases in referral thresholds to increase numbers of patients referred for urgent investigation. METHODS: Clinical Practice Research Datalink data from England for 150,921 adults aged ≥40 were used to identify participants with features of possible cancer equating to risk thresholds ≥1%, ≥2% or ≥3% for breast, lung, colorectal, oesophago-gastric, pancreatic, renal, bladder, prostatic, ovarian, endometrial and laryngeal cancers. RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 60 (SD 13) years, with 73,643 males (49%). In 2016, 8576 consultation records contained coded features having a positive predictive value (PPV) of ≥3% for any of the 11 cancers. This equates to a rate of 5682/100,000 patients compared with 4601/100,000 Suspected Cancer NHS referrals for these cancers from April 2016-March 2017. Nine thousands two hundred ninety-one patient-consultation records had coded features equating to a ≥2% PPV, 8% more than met PPV ≥ 3%. Similarly, 19,517 had features with a PPV ≥ 1%, 136% higher than for PPV ≥ 3%. CONCLUSIONS: This study estimated the number of primary-care patients presenting at lower thresholds of cancer risk. The resource implications of liberalising this threshold to 2% are modest and manageable. The details across individual cancer sites should assist planning of English cancer services.

Quantifying the impact of pre-existing conditions on the stage of oesophagogastric cancer at diagnosis: a primary care cohort study using electronic medical records.

BACKGROUND: Pre-existing conditions interfere with cancer diagnosis by offering diagnostic alternatives, competing for clinical attention or through patient surveillance. OBJECTIVE: To investigate associations between oesophagogastric cancer stage and pre-existing conditions. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) data, with English cancer registry linkage. Participants aged ≥40 years had consulted primary care in the year before their incident diagnosis of oesophagogastric cancer in 01/01/2010-31/12/2015. CPRD records pre-diagnosis were searched for codes denoting clinical features of oesophagogastric cancer and for pre-existing conditions, including those providing plausible diagnostic alternatives for those features. Logistic regression analysed associations between stage and multimorbidity (≥2 conditions; reference category: no multimorbidity) and having 'diagnostic alternative(s)', controlling for age, sex, deprivation and cancer site. RESULTS: Of 2444 participants provided, 695 (28%) were excluded for missing stage, leaving 1749 for analysis (1265/1749, 72.3% had advanced-stage disease). Multimorbidity was associated with stage [odds ratio 0.63, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.47-0.85, P = 0.002], with moderate evidence of an interaction term with sex (1.76, 1.08-2.86, P = 0.024). There was no association between alternative explanations and stage (odds ratio 1.18, 95% CI 0.87-1.60, P = 0.278). CONCLUSIONS: In men, multimorbidity is associated with a reduced chance of advanced-stage oesophagogastric cancer, to levels seen collectively for women.

Diagnosing cancer is complicated by existing medical conditions. Diagnosis may be delayed if conditions explain cancer symptoms, or dominate appointments. Diagnosis may be quicker if conditions increase doctor­patient contact. We studied the association between existing illness and stage (early or advanced) of diagnosis with cancer of the stomach or gullet. We studied the primary-care records of patients aged ≥40 years, diagnosed in 01/01/2010­31/12/2015, and got stage from English cancer registry data. We searched the primary-care records for cancer symptoms (e.g. difficulty swallowing), and for 27 conditions that were common or explained cancer symptoms (e.g. difficulty swallowing following a stroke). We analysed cancer stage, looking at age, sex, multimorbidity (two or more conditions) and explanations for symptoms. We studied 1749 patients, of whom 1265 (72.3%) had advanced-stage cancer. The chance of advanced stage was similar in women with (71%, 95% CI 66­75%) or without (69%, 62­76%) multimorbidity. It was lower for men with (70%, 67­74%) than without (79%, 75­83%) multimorbidity. Stage of cancer was not affected by having explanations for cancer symptoms. In summary, for men, multimorbidity is associated with a reduced chance of advanced-stage cancer of the stomach or gullet to levels seen collectively for women.

Prioritising primary care patients with unexpected weight loss for cancer investigation: diagnostic accuracy study.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the predictive value of unexpected weight loss (WL) for cancer according to patient's age, sex, smoking status, and concurrent clinical features (symptoms, signs, and abnormal blood test results). DESIGN: Diagnostic accuracy study. SETTING: Clinical Practice Research Datalink electronic health records data linked to the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service in primary care, England. PARTICIPANTS: 63 973 adults (≥18 years) with a code for unexpected WL from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2012. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cancer diagnosis in the six months after the earliest weight loss code (index date). Codes for additional clinical features were identified in the three months before to one month after the index date. Diagnostic accuracy measures included positive and negative likelihood ratios, positive predictive values, and diagnostic odds ratios. RESULTS: Of 63 973 adults with unexpected WL, 37 215 (58.2%) were women, 33 167 (51.8%) were aged 60 years or older, and 16 793 (26.3%) were ever smokers. 908 (1.4%) had a diagnosis of cancer within six months of the index date, of whom 882 (97.1%) were aged 50 years or older. The positive predictive value for cancer was above the 3% threshold recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence for urgent investigation in male ever smokers aged 50 years or older, but not in women at any age. 10 additional clinical features were associated with cancer in men with unexpected WL, and 11 in women. Positive likelihood ratios in men ranged from 1.86 (95% confidence interval 1.32 to 2.62) for non-cardiac chest pain to 6.10 (3.44 to 10.79) for abdominal mass, and in women from 1.62 (1.15 to 2.29) for back pain to 20.9 (10.7 to 40.9) for jaundice. Abnormal blood test results associated with cancer included low albumin levels (4.67, 4.14 to 5.27) and raised values for platelets (4.57, 3.88 to 5.38), calcium (4.28, 3.05 to 6.02), total white cell count (3.76, 3.30 to 4.28), and C reactive protein (3.59, 3.31 to 3.89). However, no normal blood test result in isolation ruled out cancer. Clinical features co-occurring with unexpected WL were associated with multiple cancer sites. CONCLUSION: The risk of cancer in adults with unexpected WL presenting to primary care is 2% or less and does not merit investigation under current UK guidelines. However, in male ever smokers aged 50 years or older and in patients with concurrent clinical features, the risk of cancer warrants referral for invasive investigation. Clinical features typically associated with specific cancer sites are markers of several cancer types when they occur with unexpected WL.

Cancer incidence in patients with a high normal platelet count: a cohort study using primary care data.

Background: A platelet count >400 × 109/l (i.e. thrombocytosis) is a recently discovered risk marker of cancer. The risk of undiagnosed cancer in patients with thrombocytosis is 11.6% for men and 6.2% for women, well above the 3% risk threshold set by National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) for cancer investigation. Patients with a platelet count at the upper end of the normal range (325-400 × 109/l) could be at increased risk of undiagnosed malignancy. Objective: To quantify the risk of an undiagnosed cancer in patients with a platelet count at the upper end of the normal range. Methods: A primary care-based cohort study using Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) data from 2000 to 2013. The study sample comprised 2704 individuals stratified by platelet count: 325-349 × 109/l; 350-374 × 109/l; 375-399 × 109/l. Incident cancer diagnoses in the year following that platelet count were obtained from patient records. Results: Cancer incidence rose with increasing platelet count: 2.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.9 to 3.6] in subjects with a count of 325-349 × 109/l, 3.7% (95% CI 2.5 to 5.3) in subjects with a count of 350-374 × 109/l and 5.1% (95% CI 3.4 to 7.5) in those with a count of 375-399 × 109/l. Colorectal cancer was most commonly diagnosed in all three groups. Cancer incidence was consistently higher in males than in females. Conclusion: These results suggest that clinicians should consider cancer in patients with a platelet count >375 × 109/l, review reasons for testing and any additional reported symptoms. Until these results are replicated on a larger scale, recommendations for clinical action cannot be made.

Is omission of free text records a possible source of data loss and bias in Clinical Practice Research Datalink studies? A case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate data loss and bias in studies of Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) data that restrict analyses to Read codes, omitting anything recorded as text. DESIGN: Matched case-control study. SETTING: Patients contributing data to the CPRD. PARTICIPANTS: 4915 bladder and 3635 pancreatic, cancer cases diagnosed between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2009, matched on age, sex and general practitioner practice to up to 5 controls (bladder: n=21 718; pancreas: n=16 459). The analysis period was the year before cancer diagnosis. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Frequency of haematuria, jaundice and abdominal pain, grouped by recording style: Read code or text-only (ie, hidden text). The association between recording style and case-control status (χ(2) test). For each feature, the odds ratio (OR; conditional logistic regression) and positive predictive value (PPV; Bayes' theorem) for cancer, before and after addition of hidden text records. RESULTS: Of the 20 958 total records of the features, 7951 (38%) were recorded in hidden text. Hidden text recording was more strongly associated with controls than with cases for haematuria (140/336=42% vs 556/3147=18%) in bladder cancer (χ(2) test, p<0.001), and for jaundice (21/31=67% vs 463/1565=30%, p<0.0001) and abdominal pain (323/1126=29% vs 397/1789=22%, p<0.001) in pancreatic cancer. Adding hidden text records corrected PPVs of haematuria for bladder cancer from 4.0% (95% CI 3.5% to 4.6%) to 2.9% (2.6% to 3.2%), and of jaundice for pancreatic cancer from 12.8% (7.3% to 21.6%) to 6.3% (4.5% to 8.7%). Adding hidden text records did not alter the PPV of abdominal pain for bladder (codes: 0.14%, 0.13% to 0.16% vs codes plus hidden text: 0.14%, 0.13% to 0.15%) or pancreatic (0.23%, 0.21% to 0.25% vs 0.21%, 0.20% to 0.22%) cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Omission of text records from CPRD studies introduces bias that inflates outcome measures for recognised alarm symptoms. This potentially reinforces clinicians' views of the known importance of these symptoms, marginalising the significance of 'low-risk but not no-risk' symptoms.

Non-visible versus visible haematuria and bladder cancer risk: a study of electronic records in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis of bladder cancer relies on investigation of symptoms presented to primary care, notably visible haematuria. The importance of non-visible haematuria has never been estimated. AIM: To estimate the risk of bladder cancer with non-visible haematuria. DESIGN AND SETTING: A case-control study using UK electronic primary care medical records, including uncoded data to supplement coded records. METHOD: A total of 4915 patients (aged ≥40 years) diagnosed with bladder cancer between January 2000 and December 2009 were selected from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and matched to 21 718 controls for age, sex, and practice. Variables for visible and non-visible haematuria were derived from coded and uncoded data. Analyses used multivariable conditional logistic regression, followed by estimation of positive predictive values (PPVs) for bladder cancer using Bayes' theorem. RESULTS: Non-visible haematuria (coded/uncoded data) was independently associated with bladder cancer: odds ratio (OR) 20 (95% confidence interval [CI] =12 to 33). The PPV of non-visible haematuria was 1.6% (95% CI = 1.2 to 2.1) in those aged ≥60 years and 0.8% (95% CI = 0.1 to 5.6) in 40-59-year-olds. The PPV of visible haematuria was 2.8% (95% CI = 2.5 to 3.1) and 1.2% (95% CI = 0.6 to 2.3) for the same age groups respectively, lower than those calculated using coded data alone. The proportion of records of visible haematuria in coded, rather than uncoded, format was higher in cases than in controls (P<0.002, χ(2) test). There was no evidence for such differential recording of non-visible haematuria by case/control status (P = 0.78), although, overall, the uncoded format was preferred (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: Both non-visible and visible haematuria are associated with bladder cancer, although the visible form confers nearly twice the risk of cancer compared with the non-visible form. GPs' style of record keeping varies by symptom and possible diagnosis.

K homology domains of the mouse polycystic kidney disease-related protein, Bicaudal-C (Bicc1), mediate RNA binding in vitro.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The mouse Bicc1(mBicc1) gene is the orthologue of the DrosophilaBicaudal-C(Bic-C) gene. While the role of Bicc1 in the mouse is unknown, mutations in the mouse Bicc1 gene are associated with polycystic kidney disease (PKD). The mBicc1 protein contains three K homology (KH) domains. Evidence from other KH domain-containing proteins as well as studies involving both Drosophila and Xenopus Bic-C, suggest that this motif is important in interactions with RNA. METHODS: RNA-binding assays were used to test whether mouse Bicc1 binds homoribopolymers in vitro. A series of constructs coding for different regions of the mBicc1 protein were used to determine which regions of the mBicc1 protein were important for in vitro RNA binding. RESULTS: Mouse Bicc1 binds homoribopolymers in vitro and the third KH domain is necessary and sufficient for in vitro RNA binding. The mutation responsible for PKD in the jcpk mouse model results in a protein that is incapable of binding RNA in vitro. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that mouse Bicc1, a protein associated with PKD, has the ability to bind RNA in vitro. Disruption of this binding capability may be responsible for cyst formation in animals carrying mutations in the mBicc1 gene.

Interpretation of medication pictograms by adults in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Patients' ability to understand information about medication is crucial for safety and effectiveness. Rates of illiteracy worldwide indicate that written information alone cannot meet many patients' needs. Medication pictograms are an alternative, but may be culturally sensitive. Previous testing has used large pictograms, which are impractical for conventional drug information formats. OBJECTIVE: To compare 2 sets of pictograms for instructions or warnings (from the US and South Africa) for understandability by adults in the UK and examine the effects of pictogram size and repeat presentation on understandability among older adults. METHODS: In the first part of the study, 160 adults (aged 17-83 y) reviewed and interpreted 10 pictograms. In the second, 67 older adults (aged 65-96 y) were randomly assigned to review 10 small or large pictograms. After giving their interpretation, they were informed of the correct meaning. One week later, they were shown the same pictograms and gave their interpretation. RESULTS: The pictograms for the 10 different instructions and warnings showed great variation in interpretation rates (7.5-90%), with few significant differences between the US and South African versions. Only 3 were understood by > or = 85% of the population. Pictograms performed significantly better if they were larger and at the second presentation. CONCLUSIONS: Pictograms have the potential to help patients understand information on drug therapy. This study shows that some existing pictograms are not easily interpreted and that testing is needed before their implementation. A reduction in their size to allow incorporation into conventional written formats may cause additional problems for patients.

Positional cloning of jcpk/bpk locus of the mouse.

By positional cloning techniques, we have identified the gene that is disrupted in the jcpk and bpk mouse models for polycystic kidney disease. This gene is the mouse homolog of the Drosophila Bicaudal C gene. Both of these mutations have been mapped to a very short stretch of Chromosome (Chr) 10. By sequencing the bicaudal C gene, Bicc1, in these models, it was found that the jcpk mutation results in a shortened and abnormal transcript, whereas the bpk mutation results in an abnormal 3' coding region. In Drosophila, this gene encodes a protein known to influence developmental processes. The mammalian homolog contains three KH (K homology) domains and a SAM (sterile alpha motif) domain and is expressed in the developing embryo, indicating that it may be important in RNA-binding and/or protein interactions during embryogenesis.