Epidemiological trends and trajectories of MAFLD-associated hepatocellular carcinoma 2002-2033: the ITA.LI.CA database.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) represents a new inclusive definition of the whole spectrum of liver diseases associated to metabolic disorders. The main objective of this study was to compare patients with MAFLD and non-MAFLD with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) included in a nationally representative cohort. METHODS: We analysed 6882 consecutive patients with HCC enrolled from 2002 to 2019 by 23 Italian Liver Cancer centres to compare epidemiological and future trends in three subgroups: pure, single aetiology MAFLD (S-MAFLD); mixed aetiology MAFLD (metabolic and others, M-MAFLD); and non-MAFLD HCC. RESULTS: MAFLD was diagnosed in the majority of patients with HCC (68.4%). The proportion of both total MAFLD and S-MAFLD HCC significantly increased over time (from 50.4% and 3.6% in 2002-2003, to 77.3% and 28.9% in 2018-2019, respectively, p<0.001). In Italy S-MAFLD HCC is expected to overcome M-MAFLD HCC in about 6 years. Patients with S-MAFLD HCC were older, more frequently men and less frequently cirrhotic with clinically relevant portal hypertension and a surveillance-related diagnosis. They had more frequently large tumours and extrahepatic metastases. After weighting, and compared with patients with non-MAFLD, S-MAFLD and M-MAFLD HCC showed a significantly lower overall (p=0.026, p=0.004) and HCC-related (p<0.001, for both) risk of death. Patients with S-MAFLD HCC showed a significantly higher risk of non-HCC-related death (p=0.006). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of MAFLD HCC in Italy is rapidly increasing to cover the majority of patients with HCC. Despite a less favourable cancer stage at diagnosis, patients with MAFLD HCC have a lower risk of HCC-related death, suggesting reduced cancer aggressiveness.

The role of elastography in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common cause of chronic liver disease worldwide and its prevalence is even higher in patients with risk factors such as type 2 diabetes and obesity. Liver biopsy is the gold standard for diagnosis of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), particularly for the assessment of fibrosis stage that is a key prognostic factor. Noninvasive methods for assessment of liver fibrosis are a huge need in contemporary hepatology in order to stratify patient's risk of advanced and progressive liver disease. In this perspective different imaging techniques have been developed in last decades and showed high performance in liver fibrosis evaluation. Strengths and weaknesses of all imaging methods are summarized in this review.

Development and Validation of Predictive Assessment of Complicated Diverticulitis Score.

The prevalence of acute diverticulitis (AD) has progressively increased in recent decades, with correspondingly greater morbidity and mortality. The aim of the study is to develop a predictive score to identify patients with the highest risk of complicated AD. The clinical records of 1089 patients referred to the emergency department (ED) over a five-year period were reviewed. In multivariate analysis, male sex (p < 0.001), constipation (p = 0.002), hemoglobin < 11.9 g/dL (p < 0.001), C reactive protein > 80 mg/L (p < 0.001), severe obesity (p = 0.049), and no proton pump inhibitor treatment (p = 0.003) were independently associated with complicated AD. The predictive assessment of complicated (PACO)-diverticulitis (D) score, including these six variables, was applied to the retrospective cohort and then validated prospectively in a cohort including 282 patients. It categorized patients into three risk classes for complicated AD. The PACO-D score showed fair discrimination for complicated AD with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.674 and 0.648, in the retrospective and prospective cohorts, respectively. The PACO-D score could be a practical clinical tool to identify patients at highest risk for complicated AD referred to the ED so that appropriate diagnostic and therapeutic resources could be appropriately allocated. Further external validation is needed to confirm these results.

Use of imaging techniques for non-invasive assessment in the diagnosis and staging of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common cause of chronic liver disease and represent a common finding in highly prevalent metabolic disorders (i.e. type 2 diabetes, metabolic syndrome, obesity). Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) requires liver biopsy for grading and staging the liver damage by the assessment of steatosis, inflammation and fibrosis. In parallel with the development of numerous 'liquid' biomarkers and algorithms that combine anthropometric and laboratory parameters, innovative hepatic imaging techniques have increasingly been developed to attempt to overcome the need for biopsy, both in diagnosis and staging of NAFLD, and in possible use in the follow-up of the disease. In this review, we focused on the different imaging techniques trying to highlight the strengths and disadvantages of different approaches, particularly for ultrasound techniques, in stratifying liver injury and fibrosis in patients with NAFLD / NASH.

Genetic susceptibility of increased intestinal permeability is associated with progressive liver disease and diabetes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Increased intestinal permeability plays a key role in the pathogenesis of fat deposition in the liver. The aim of our study was to assess whether a single nucleotide polymorphism of protein tyrosine phosphatase non-receptor type 2 (PTPN2) (rs2542151 T→G), involved in intestinal permeability, may be associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). METHODS AND RESULTS: We recruited a prospective cohort of NAFLD subjects and matched controls. Clinical data, PTPN2 genotype and laboratory data were collected for each patient. Results were stratified according to liver histology and diabetes. We enrolled 566 cases and 377 controls. PTPN2 genotype distribution did not significantly differ between patients and controls. In the entire population, patients with PTPN2 rs2542151 T→G (dominant model) have a higher prevalence of diabetes; 345 patients (60.9%) underwent liver biopsy: 198 (57.4%) had steatohepatitis and 75 (21.7%) had advanced fibrosis. At multiple logistic regression analysis PTPN2 rs2542151 T→G was associated with T2DM (OR 2.14, 95% CI 1.04-4.40, P = 0.03). Patients who underwent liver biopsy, rs2542151 T→G of PTPN2 was independently associated with severe steatosis (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.17-3.43, p = 0.01) and severe fibrosis (OR 2.23, 95% CI 1.06-4.72, P = 0.03). CONCLUSION: Our study shows that NAFLD patients with rs2542151 T→G of PTPN2 have a higher severity of fatty liver disease and a higher prevalence of T2DM. These results suggest that individual genetic susceptibility to intestinal permeability could play a role in liver disease progression.

A modern multidisciplinary approach to the treatment of enterocutaneous fistulas in Crohn's disease patients.

INTRODUCTION: Enterocutaneous fistulas (ECFs) is a manifestation of penetrating Crohn's disease (CD) that is challenging to treat and has considerable morbidity and mortality rates. AREAS COVERED: This review aims to explore the practical and updated principles for the optimal treatment of ECFs in CD patients. EXPERT OPINION: Optimal ECF management requires a multidisciplinary approach. Treatment first includes fluid resuscitation and electrolyte rebalancing with control of sepsis by means of antibiotics and, when indicated, drainage of infected collections. Subsequent therapeutic steps include nutritional support, control of the fistula output and treatment of peristomal skin. Anti-TNF-α therapy seems to have limited utility only after sepsis is resolved and intestinal stenosis excluded. However, ECFs heal in only approximately one-third of cases without surgical intervention. Thus, correct surgical timing combined with adequate nutritional support, sepsis resolution and skin care is considered the appropriate preoperative setting.

Venous Thromboembolism in Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease: The Role of Pharmacological Therapy and Surgery.

Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Alongside the traditional acquired and genetic risk factors for VTE, patients with IBD have pathogenic and clinical peculiarities that are responsible for the increased number of thromboembolic events occurring during their life. A relevant role in modifying this risk in a pro or antithrombotic manner is played by pharmacological therapies and surgery. The availability of several biological agents and small-molecule drugs with different mechanisms of action allows us to also tailor the treatment based on the individual prothrombotic risk to reduce the occurrence of VTE. Available review articles did not provide sufficient and updated knowledge on this topic. Therefore, we assessed the role of each single treatment, including surgery, in modifying the risk of VTE in patients with IBD to provide physicians with recommendations to minimize VTE occurrence. We found that the use of steroids, particularly if prolonged, increased VTE risk, whereas the use of infliximab seemed to reduce such risk. The data relating to the hypothesized prothrombotic risk of tofacitinib were insufficient to draw definitive conclusions. Moreover, surgery has an increased prothrombotic risk. Therefore, implementing measures to prevent VTE, not only with pharmacological prophylaxis but also by reducing patient- and surgery-specific risk factors, is necessary. Our findings confirm the importance of the knowledge of the effect of each single drug or surgery on the overall VTE risk in patients with IBD, even if further data, particularly regarding newer drugs, are needed.

BCLC stage B hepatocellular carcinoma and transcatheter arterial chemoembolization: a 20-year survey by the Italian Liver Cancer group.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Significant proportion of Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) cases are diagnosed in stage B of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) algorithm, in which the standard of care is Transcatheter Arterial ChemoEmbolization (TACE). We aimed to ascertain adherence to current guidelines, survival and prognostic factors in BCLC stage B patients. METHODS: From 3027 HCC cases recruited from 1986 to 2008 by the Italian Liver Cancer group (2430 with data allowing a correct allocation in the BCLC system), a retrospective analysis was conducted on those diagnosed in BCLC stage B (405 patients, 17%). Statistics were performed with Kaplan-Meier (log rank) method and Cox multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Median overall survival in BCLC stage B patients was 25 months (Confidence Interval - C.I. - 22-28 months) with a 5-year survival of 18%. Child-Pugh class, oesophageal varices and Alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) were the independent predictors of survival. TACE was applied in 40% of cases and did not offer the longest survival in comparison with surgical or percutaneous treatments (median 27 months vs. 37 and 36 months, respectively) (P < 0.001). BCLC stage B patients undergoing radical treatments were more frequently in Child-Pugh class A and had a significantly lower number of lesions; patients undergoing best supportive care were frequently in Child-Pugh class B and had a multifocal disease. Survival after TACE did not significantly increase over time. CONCLUSIONS: In clinical practice, TACE cannot be considered the best approach for BCLC stage B patients who represent a heterogeneous population and are often suitable for more aggressive therapies, which lead to a better survival.

Rise and fall of HCV-related hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy: a long-term survey from the ITA.LI.CA centres.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the leading aetiological factor of HCC in the western world where, overall, its incidence is increasing, despite data suggesting an initial drop in some areas. The aim of this study was to evaluate epidemiology, clinical features and survival of HCV-related HCC (HCV-HCC) in a wide time range in Italy. METHODS: Multicentre retrospective study including 3695 patients prospectively recruited by the ITA.LI.CA group. Patients were classified into three subgroups according to aetiology (Group A[GA], pure HCV; Group B[GB], HCV + cofactors; and Group C[GC], non-HCV) and in 5 time cohorts (5 years each), according to the year of diagnosis. Age, gender, Child-Pugh score, modality of diagnosis, stage, presence of thrombosis/metastases, type of treatment and survival were analysed. RESULTS: A total of 1801 GA patients, 445 GB and 1333 GC were recruited. The number of GA patients peaked in the 1996-2000, gradually dropping thereafter (P < 0.0001), as observed for GB (P < 0.0001). Age at diagnosis increased (P < 0.0001), while percentage of patients diagnosed during surveillance and stage improved only in GA (P = 0.02 and P = 0.003 respectively). The survival significantly increased over time particularly in GA (median 37 months) and was longer in GA than in GB and GC (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of HCC-HCV is decreasing in Italy since 2001. HCV-HCC patients are older, more frequently diagnosed under surveillance and in an earlier stage. HCC survival improved in the last 15 years and is significantly higher in patients with HCV-HCC. We therefore expect a further drop in both incidence and mortality for HCV-HCC in the years to come.

Influence of clinically significant portal hypertension on survival after hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients.

BACKGROUND: The role of clinically significant portal hypertension on the prognosis of cirrhotic patients undergoing hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is debated. AIMS: In this study, our aim was to assess the role of clinically significant portal hypertension after hepatic resection for HCC in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: We assessed the prognostic role of the presence of clinically significant portal hypertension (oesophageal/gastric varices/portal hypertensive gastropathy or a platelet count <100 × 10(9) /L associated with splenomegaly) in 152 patients with compensated cirrhosis who underwent hepatic resection for HCC at the Italian Liver Cancer centres. Survival rates were assessed in the whole series, in the subgroup of Child-Pugh score 5 patients with uninodular HCC ≤ 5 cm, and in Child-Pugh score 5 patients with uninodular HCC ≤ 2 cm and normal bilirubin. RESULTS: Median survival was similar in patients with and without clinically significant portal hypertension (79 vs 77 months, P = 0.686). Child-Pugh score 5 was the only variable significantly associated with survival by Cox multiple regression (P = 0.007). In Child-Pugh score 5 patients with single HCC ≤ 5 cm or in those with single HCC ≤ 2 cm and normal bilirubin, there was no survival difference between patients with and without clinically significant portal hypertension (median survival: 94 vs 78 months, P = 0.121 and >100 vs 86 months, P = 0.742). CONCLUSIONS: Presence of clinically significant portal hypertension has no influence on survival of patients with well-compensated cirrhosis undergoing hepatic resection for HCC.

Cost-effectiveness of semi-annual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients of the Italian Liver Cancer population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It was recently shown that semi-annual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in cirrhotic patients provides a prognostic advantage over the annual program; however, its cost-effectiveness (CE) in the general cirrhotic population still needs to be defined. METHODS: A Markov model was built to compare CE of these two strategies, considering literature results and treatment modalities of 918 cirrhotic patients from the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database. RESULTS: Results from the Markov model suggest that, compared to annual surveillance, semi-annual surveillance leads to a gain in quality-adjusted life expectancy, in an unselected cirrhotic population, of 1.35 quality-adjusted life-months (QALMs) over 10 years since surveillance start in compensated patients, and of 0.73 QALMs in decompensated patients. Semi-annual surveillance was more cost-effective in compensated than in decompensated cirrhosis, with an incremental CE ratio (ICER) of 1997 and 3814€/QALM, respectively. In compensated cirrhosis, semi-annual surveillance was more cost-effective than the annual program when the annual HCC incidence was ≥3.2% and the relative survival gain after cancer diagnosis was ≥20% with respect to the annual program. In decompensated cirrhosis, semi-annual surveillance was cost-effective in patients amenable to liver transplantation. In both groups, CE of semi-annual surveillance improved with the increase of annual incidence and the survival benefit obtainable with HCC treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Both surveillance strategies for HCC in cirrhotic patients can be recommended, according to the individual risk profile for HCC occurrence and the expected survival gain obtainable after tumor diagnosis and therapy.

The changing scenario of hepatocellular carcinoma over the last two decades in Italy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: This study investigates whether the aetiologic changes in liver disease and the improved management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have modified the clinical scenario of this tumour over the last 20 years in Italy. METHODS: Retrospective study based on the analysis of the ITA.LI.CA (Italian Liver Cancer) database including 3027 HCC patients managed in 11 centres. Patients were divided into 3 groups according to the period of HCC diagnosis: 1987-1996 (year of the "Milano criteria" publication), 1997-2001 (year of release of the EASL guidelines for HCC), and 2002-2008. RESULTS: The significant changes were: (1) progressive patient ageing; (2) increasing prevalence of HCV infection until 2001, with a subsequent decrease, when the alcoholic aetiology increased; (3) liver function improvement, until 2001; (4) increasing "incidental" at the expense of "symptomatic" diagnoses, until 2001; (5) unchanged prevalence of tumours diagnosed during surveillance (around 50%), with an increasing use of the 6-month schedule; (6) favourable HCC "stage migration", until 2001; (7) increasing use of percutaneous ablation; (8) improving survival, until 2001. CONCLUSIONS: Over the last 20 years, several aetiologic and clinical features regarding HCC have changed. The survival improvement observed until 2001 was due to an increasing number of tumours diagnosed in early stages and in a background of compensated cirrhosis, and a growing and better use of locoregional treatments. However, the prevalence of early cancers and survival did not increase further in the last years, a result inciting national policies aimed at implementing surveillance programmes for at risk patients.

Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging and transplant survival benefit for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicentre, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Allocation of deceased-donor livers to patients with chronic liver failure is improved by prioritising patients by 5-year liver transplantation survival benefit. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging has been proposed as the standard means to assess for prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. We aimed to create a prediction model linking the BCLC stage of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma to their 5-year liver transplant benefit. METHODS: A large cohort of consecutive patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (n=1328) from the ITA.LI.CA database (n=2951) were judged as potentially eligible for liver transplantation according to the following criteria: absence of macroscopic vascular invasion or metastases, age 70 years or younger, and absence of relevant extra-hepatic comorbidities. To assess the correlation between BCLC staging and non-liver transplantation survival, we did Cox univariate and multivariate analyses including the following covariates: BCLC stage, year of diagnosis, age, sex, cause of cirrhosis, model for end-stage liver disease score, α-fetoprotein concentrations, and treatment. Liver-transplantation survival benefit for patients was calculated, using Monte Carlo simulation analysis, as the patient's 5-year life expectancy with liver transplantation (estimated by the Metroticket model) minus the 5-year life expectancy without liver transplantation according to BCLC stage. FINDINGS: 83 (6%) of 1328 patients had BCLC 0 stage disease, 614 (46%) had BCLC A, 500 (38%) had BCLC B-C, and 131 (10%) had BCLC D. In the Cox non-liver transplantation survival multivariate model, hazard ratios associated with increasing BCLC stages were 1.530 (95% CI 1.107-2.116) for BCLC A versus BCLC 0, 1.572 (1.350-1.830) for BCLC B-C versus BCLC A, and 1.470 (1.164-1.856) for BCLC D versus BCLC B-C. Results of the Monte Carlo simulation analysis confirmed the significant effect of BCLC classification on transplant benefit; in the adjusted model, a median 5-year transplant benefit of 11.19 months (IQR 10.73-11.67) for BCLC 0, 13.49 months (11.51-15.57) for BCLC A, 17.36 months (15.06-19.28) for BCLC B-C, and 28.46 months (26.38-30.34) for BCLC D. INTERPRETATION: Liver transplantation could result in survival benefit for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and advanced liver cirrhosis (BCLC stage D) and in those with intermediate tumours (BCLC stages B-C), regardless of the nodule number-size criteria (ie, Milan criteria), provided that macroscopic vascular invasion and extra-hepatic disease are absent. FUNDING: None.

Treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma in elderly patients are as effective as in younger patients: a 20-year multicentre experience.

OBJECTIVES: The number of elderly patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is expected to increase. We compared the presenting features and outcome of HCC in elderly (>or=70 years) and younger patients (<70 years). DESIGN: Multicentre retrospective cohort study and nested case-control study. Patients 614 elderly and 1104 younger patients from the ITA.LI.CA database, including 1834 HCC cases consecutively diagnosed from January 1987 to December 2004. Both groups were stratified according to treatment: hepatic resection, percutaneous procedures, transarterial chemoembolisation (TACE). Survival was assessed in the whole population and in each treatment subgroup. Age, sex, aetiology, cirrhosis, comorbidities and cancer stage (CLIP score) were tested as predictors of survival. In each subgroup, differences in patient survival were also assessed after adjustment and matching by propensity score. RESULTS: Ageing was associated with a higher prevalence of comorbidities, better liver function and CLIP score. Regardless of age, two-thirds of patients underwent radical treatments or TACE. Elderly patients underwent more ablative procedures and fewer resections or TACE sessions. The survival of elderly and younger patients was comparable in each treatment subset, and was predicted by CLIP score. This result was confirmed by the propensity analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The overall applicability of radical or effective HCC treatments was unaffected by old age. However, treatment distribution differed, elderly individuals being more frequently treated with percutaneous procedures and less frequently with resection or TACE. Survival was unaffected by age and primarily predicted by cancer stage, assessed by the CLIP system, both in the overall population and in treatment subgroups.

Prevalence, characteristics and severity of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in patients with chronic plaque psoriasis.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The association between NAFLD and psoriasis has never been explored in prospective epidemiological studies. The aim of this 2-phase study was to study the clinical features of NAFLD in patients with psoriasis. METHODS: Phase 1: Investigation of prevalence and characteristics of NAFLD in an unselected cohort of 142 adult Italian outpatients with psoriasis vulgaris. Phase 2: Comparison of the psoriasis cohort subgroup with NAFLD and an age- and body mass index-matched retrospective cohort of 125 non-psoriasis patients with biopsy proven NAFLD. RESULTS: Based on histories, laboratory tests, and ultrasound studies, 84 (59.2%) received clinical diagnosis of NAFLD; 30 had factors potentially associated with liver disease other than NAFLD (e.g., viral hepatitis, significant ethanol, methotrexate use); and 28 (19.7%) had normal livers. Comparison of the normal-liver and NAFLD subgroups revealed that NAFLD in psoriasis patients (Ps-NAFLD) was significantly correlated with metabolic syndrome (p<0.05); obesity (p=0.043); hypercholesterolemia (p=0.029); hypertriglyceridemia (p<0.001); AST/ALT ratio >1 (p=0.019), and psoriatic arthritis (PsA) (p=0.036). The association with PsA remained significant after logistic regression analysis (OR=3.94 [CI, 1.07-14.46]). Compared with the retrospective non-psoriatic NAFLD cohort (controls), Ps-NAFLD patients (cases) were likely to have severe NAFLD reflected by non-invasive NAFLD Fibrosis Scores and AST/ALT >1. CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD is highly prevalent among psoriasis patients, where it is closely associated with obesity (overall and abdominal), metabolic syndrome, and PsA, and more likely to cause severe liver fibrosis (compared with nonPs-NAFLD). Routine work-up for NAFLD may be warranted in patients with psoriasis, especially when potentially hepatotoxic drug therapy is being considered.

Is female sex a significant favorable prognostic factor in hepatocellular carcinoma?

OBJECTIVE: As sex favorably modulates the natural history of chronic liver diseases and the risk for neoplastic evolution, our study aimed to ascertain whether female hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients are also characterized by better prognosis. METHODS: The ITA.LI.CA (Italian Liver Cancer) database was used, including 1834 HCC patients (482 females, 1352 males) that were consecutively diagnosed. The following variables were considered: age, etiology, modality of diagnosis, earlier interferon treatment, bilirubin, alpha-fetoprotein levels, constitutional syndrome, portal thrombosis, metastasis, number and size of nodules, grading, Child-Pugh class, tumor-nodes-metastases and Cancer of the Liver Italian Program staging, and treatment. RESULTS: Female HCC patients were characterized by older age (P=0.0001), higher prevalence of HCV infection (P=0.0001), diagnosis more frequently by surveillance (P=0.003), higher alpha-fetoprotein levels (P=0.0055), lower prevalence of constitutional syndrome (P=0.03), portal thrombosis (P=0.04), and metastasis (P=0.0001). HCC in females was more frequently unifocal (P=0.0001), smaller (P=0.001), well differentiated (P=0.001), and of lower Cancer of the Liver Italian Program and tumor-nodes-metastases stage (P=0.0001 and 0.0001). However, females underwent curative treatments (transplantation, resection, percutaneous ablation) in the same percentage of cases as males. Finally, females had a significantly longer survival (median 29 [95% confidence interval (CI): 24-33] vs. 24 (22-25) months, P=0.0001). The difference was sharper [median 36 (CI: 31-41] vs. 17 (CI: 15-19)] when females undergoing surveillance were compared with males diagnosed incidentally or for symptoms. The Cox model also identified sex as an independent predictor of survival. When only patients undergoing surveillance were considered, no significant difference was observed. CONCLUSION: HCC in females has better prognosis, but this is possibly more because of higher compliance with surveillance than to real biological differences.

Early and very early hepatocellular carcinoma: when and how much do staging and choice of treatment really matter? A multi-center study.

BACKGROUND: A consensus on the most reliable staging system for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still lacking but the most used is a revised Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) system, adopted by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD). We investigated how many patients are diagnosed in "very early" and "early" stage, follow the AASLD guidelines for treatment and whether their survival depends on treatment. METHODS: Data were collected in 530 "very early" and "early" HCC patients recruited by a multicentric Italian collaborative group (ITA.LI.CA). The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate overall survival and the log rank to test the statistical significance of difference between groups. Cox's multivariate stepwise regression analysis was used to pinpoint independent prognostic factors and the adjusted relative risks (hazard ratios) were calculated as well. A statistical analysis based on the chi-square test was used to identify significant differences in clinical or pathological features between patients. A P-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: "Very early" HCC were 3%; Cox multivariate analysis did not identify variables independently associated with survival. The patients following AASLD recommendations (20%) did not show longer survival. In "early" HCC patients (25%), treatment significantly modulated survival (p = 0.0001); the 28% patients treated according to the AASLD criteria survived longer (p = 0,004). The Cox analysis however identified only age, gender, number of lesions and Child class as independent predictors of survival. CONCLUSION: patients with very early" HCC were very few in this analysis. In most instances they were not treated with the treatment suggested as the most appropriate by the AASLD guidelines and the type of treatment had no impact on survival, even though the number of patients was relatively low and part of the patients were diagnosed before the introduction of the guidelines: this analysis, therefore, might not be considered as conclusive and should be validated. The "early" stage group involved more patients, rarely treated according to the guidelines, both overall and also in those diagnosed after their publication; the survival was in part predicted by the type of treatment, with better results in those treated according to AASLD indications.

Surveillance for early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma: is it effective in intermediate/advanced cirrhosis?

OBJECTIVES: Surveillance of cirrhotic patients for early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), based on ultrasonography and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) measurement, is widely used. Its effectiveness depends on liver function, which affects the feasibility of treatments and cirrhosis-related mortality. We assessed whether patients with intermediate/advanced cirrhosis benefit from surveillance. METHODS: We selected 468 Child-Pugh class B and 140 class C patients from the ITA.LI.CA database, including 1,834 HCC patients diagnosed from January 1987 to December 2004. HCC was detected in 252 patients during surveillance (semiannual 172, annual 80 patients; group 1) and in 356 patients outside surveillance (group 2). Survival of surveyed patients was corrected for the estimated lead time. RESULTS: Child-Pugh class B: cancer stage (P < 0.001) and treatment distribution (P < 0.001) were better in group 1 than in group 2. The median (95% CI) survivals were 17.1 (13.5-20.6) versus 12.0 (9.4-14.6) months and the survival rates at 1, 3, and 5 yr were 60.4%versus 49.2%, 26.1%versus 16.1%, and 10.7%versus 4.3%, respectively (P= 0.022). AFP, gross pathology, and treatment of HCC were independent prognostic factors. Child-Pugh class C: cancer stage (P= 0.001) and treatment distribution (P= 0.021) were better in group 1 than in group 2. Nonetheless, median survival did not differ: 7.1 (2.1-12.1) versus 6.0 (4.1-7.9) months (P= 0.740). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest surveillance be offered to class B patients and maintained for class A patients who migrate to the subsequent class. Surveillance becomes pointless in class C patients probably because the poor liver function adversely affects the overall mortality and HCC treatments.