Pesticide risk assessment in European agriculture: Distribution patterns, ban-substitution effects and regulatory implications.

This study estimates the risks of agricultural pesticides on non-target organisms and the environment by combining detailed pesticide application data for 2015 with the Danish risk indicator Pesticide Load. We quantify and map the pesticide load of 59 pesticides on 28 crops and pastures in the EU. Furthermore, we investigate how recent bans on 14 pesticides in the EU could reduce pesticide use and load. Key findings show that the highest pesticide loads per hectare occur in Cyprus and the Netherlands due to high application rates and a high proportion of vegetable production. Chlorpyrifos caused the highest pesticide load per hectare on more than half of the assessed crops before its ban. The ban of 14 pesticides between 2018 and 2023 potentially reduced pesticide loads by 94%, but unobserved substitution effects could offset pesticide load reductions. Although bans on active substances are justified to control certain endpoint risks, our results highlight the potential weaknesses of bans that merely shift risks. These findings contribute to the ongoing scientific and societal discourse on efficiently mitigating pesticides' impacts on non-target organisms and the environment. However, to improve the evaluation of pesticide use, it is vital to enhance the reporting on detailed pesticide use for individual crop-pesticide combinations.

Exploring the benefits of inoculated cowpeas under different climatic conditions in Namibia.

Cowpeas (Vigna uniculata L. Walp) are grown by many smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa for food and their ability to fix nitrogen even under stress. Their performance depends on the indigenous rhizobial strains that live in symbiotic association with the roots; it can be enhanced if the seeds are inoculated with more effective ones. Data of the effectiveness of the technique under a variety of climatic conditions is rare. Here, we thus use a model to upscale two field experiments conducted in Namibia to include different climate change scenarios. The simulations show that non-inoculated cowpeas have mean yields of 0.5 t/ha and inoculated cowpeas 1 t/ha. If climatic conditions are favorable (cool and wet), estimated yield differences increase to over 1 t/ha. In dry years (< 200 mm), the average yield difference is only 0.1 t/ha. In the far future (2080-2100), instances of dry and hot years will increase. Using inoculated cowpea seeds instead of non-inoculated ones thus does not benefit farmers as much then as in the near future (2030-2050). In conclusion, using cowpea seeds inoculated with an efficient rhizobial strain can significantly increase yields under varying climatic conditions, but yield advantages decrease markedly in very dry and hot years.

A stakeholders' pathway towards a future land use and food system in Germany.

Food systems contribute considerably to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and influence land use. In Germany, many strategies have been proposed by policy-makers to reduce negative impacts and make the food system more sustainable. It is unclear how close the suggested policies, when bundled, will bring the food and land use system towards the targeted goals; and what stakeholders from non-policy-making organizations consider realistic changes in the German food system. We thus surveyed different stakeholder groups on their opinions about realistic changes in the food and land use system in Germany up to 2050, developed four stakeholder pathways, and used an accounting tool to determine the effect of each pathway on indicators such as land use, GHG emissions, and biodiversity conservation potential. The assessment showed that GHG emissions from agricultural activities and land use are reduced from 66 to - 2-22 TgCO2e by 2050, while the area where natural processes predominate increases from 19 to 27-32%, and the resilience of the food system is not negatively influenced. The change is caused mainly by a diet-change-induced reduction of livestock production and agricultural area transformation into areas with higher carbon sequestration rates. If followed, the common stakeholder pathway (based on all stakeholder responses) would thus lead towards a sustainable food and land use system, but only if the underlying assumption of a drastic diet change towards more plant-based products comes true. Stakeholders from the academic and public sectors were more likely to assume that such a change was realistic than stakeholders from the private sector.

Increasing social welfare by taxing pesticide externalities in the Indian cotton sector.

BACKGROUND: Pesticide use in the Indian cotton industry has decreased with the introduction of Bt cotton, but rates are still high in comparison with other countries. The adoption of alternative strategies, such as integrated pest management, has been slow, even though benefits are potentially high, more so if the full costs of the external effects of the technologies are taken into account. In order to estimate true societal benefits of different strategies, we compare their external costs and economic performance under external cost taxation, using a state-of-the-art partial equilibrium model of the Indian agricultural sector. RESULTS: Pesticide externalities lower social welfare in the Indian cotton sector by $US 400-2200 million, depending on the technologies employed. A full internalisation reduces producer revenues by $US 100 ha-1 if only Bt cotton is used, and by $US 30 ha-1 if IPM is another option. Consumers do not start to lose surplus until 20-70% are internalised, and losses are smaller if all technologies are available. CONCLUSION: External pesticide costs can be internalised partially without substantially affecting consumer surplus while still increasing social welfare, but producers need to have access to and the knowledge to employ all available cotton production technologies to minimise losses. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

A 2 °C warmer world is not safe for ecosystem services in the European Alps.

Limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2 °C is the objective of international efforts aimed at avoiding dangerous climate impacts. However, the regional response of terrestrial ecosystems and the services that they provide under such a scenario are largely unknown. We focus on mountain forests in the European Alps and evaluate how a range of ecosystem services (ES) are projected to be impacted in a 2 °C warmer world, using four novel regional climate scenarios. We employ three complementary forest models to assess a wide range of ES in two climatically contrasting case study regions. Within each climate scenario we evaluate if and when ES will deviate beyond status quo boundaries that are based on current system variability. Our results suggest that the sensitivity of mountain forest ES to a 2 °C warmer world depends heavily on the current climatic conditions of a region, the strong elevation gradients within a region, and the specific ES in question. Our simulations project that large negative impacts will occur at low and intermediate elevations in initially warm-dry regions, where relatively small climatic shifts result in negative drought-related impacts on forest ES. In contrast, at higher elevations, and in regions that are initially cool-wet, forest ES will be comparatively resistant to a 2 °C warmer world. We also found considerable variation in the vulnerability of forest ES to climate change, with some services such as protection against rockfall and avalanches being sensitive to 2 °C global climate change, but other services such as carbon storage being reasonably resistant. Although our results indicate a heterogeneous response of mountain forest ES to climate change, the projected substantial reduction of some forest ES in dry regions suggests that a 2 °C increase in global mean temperature cannot be seen as a universally 'safe' boundary for the maintenance of mountain forest ES.