Determinants of vaccine coverage and timeliness in a northern Pakistani village.

The incidence of vaccine preventable disease in Pakistan remains high despite a long-standing Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI). We describe vaccine completeness, timeliness and determinants of coverage from a remote rural cohort (2012-2014). Vaccination histories were taken from EPI records. Vaccination was complete if all doses were received according to the EPI schedule and timely if doses were not ≥3 days early or ≥ 28 days late. Three models are presented: a multivariable logistic regression of household demographic and socioeconomic factors associated with complete vaccination, a multivariable mixed effects logistic regression assessing whether or not the vaccine was administered late (versus on-time), and a mixed effects multivariable Poisson regression model analysing the interval (in days) between vaccine doses. Of 959 enrolled children with full vaccination histories, 88.2 and 65.1% were fully vaccinated following either the pentavalent or DPT/HBV schedules if measles was excluded; coverage dropped to 50.0 and 27.1% when both doses of measles were included. Sixty-four (6.7%) were unvaccinated. Coverage and timeliness declined with subsequent doses. Migrating into the village after 1995 (95%CI 1.88 to 5.17) was associated with late vaccination. Being male, having an older father, and having parents with at least some formal education reduced the likelihood of a late dose. The interval between doses was consistent at 5 weeks (compared with the 4 weeks recommended by EPI). None of the socio-demographic variables were related to the likelihood of receiving full coverage. Vaccine coverage in Oshikhandass was higher than national averages. Measles vaccine coverage and timeliness were low; special consideration should be paid to this vaccine. The local vaccination schedule differed from the EPI, but the consistency suggests good local administration.

Examining the relationships between early childhood experiences and adolescent and young adult health status in a resource-limited population: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Adolescence is a critical point in the realization of human capital, as health and educational decisions with long-term impacts are made. We examined the role of early childhood experiences on health, cognitive abilities, and educational outcomes of adolescents followed up from a longitudinal cohort study in Pakistan, hypothesizing that early childhood experiences reflecting poverty would manifest in reduced health and development in adolescence. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Adolescents/young adults previously followed as children aged under 5 years were interviewed. Childhood data were available on diarrhea, pneumonia, and parental/household characteristics. New data were collected on health, anthropometry, education, employment, and languages spoken; nonverbal reasoning was assessed. A multivariable Bayesian network was constructed to explore structural relationships between variables. Of 1,868 children originally enrolled, 1,463 (78.3%) were interviewed as adolescents (range 16.0-29.3 years, mean age 22.6 years); 945 (65%) lived in Oshikhandass. While 1,031 (70.5%) of their mothers and 440 (30.1%) of their fathers had received no formal education, adolescents reported a mean of 11.1 years of education. Childhood diarrhea (calculated as episodes/child-year) had no association with nonverbal reasoning score (an arc was supported in just 4.6% of bootstrap samples), health measures (with BMI, 1% of bootstrap samples; systolic and diastolic blood pressure, 0.1% and 1.6% of bootstrap samples, respectively), education (0.7% of bootstrap samples), or employment (0% of bootstrap samples). Relationships were found between nonverbal reasoning and adolescent height (arc supported in 63% of bootstrap samples), age (84%), educational attainment (100%), and speaking English (100%); speaking English was linked to the childhood home environment, mediated through maternal education and primary language. Speaking English (n = 390, 26.7% of adolescents) was associated with education (100% of bootstrap samples), self-reported child health (82%), current location (85%) and variables describing childhood socioeconomic status. The main limitations of this study were the lack of parental data to characterize the home setting (including parental mental and physical health, and female empowerment) and reliance on self-reporting of health status. CONCLUSIONS: In this population, investments in education, especially for females, are associated with an increase in human capital. Against the backdrop of substantial societal change, with the exception of a small and indirect association between childhood malnutrition and cognitive scores, educational opportunities and cultural language groups have stronger associations with aspects of human capital than childhood morbidity.

Global burden of acute lower respiratory infection associated with human parainfluenza virus in children younger than 5 years for 2018: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Human parainfluenza virus (hPIV) is a common virus in childhood acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI). However, no estimates have been made to quantify the global burden of hPIV in childhood ALRI. We aimed to estimate the global and regional hPIV-associated and hPIV-attributable ALRI incidence, hospital admissions, and mortality for children younger than 5 years and stratified by 0-5 months, 6-11 months, and 12-59 months of age. METHODS: We did a systematic review of hPIV-associated ALRI burden studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2020, found in MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Web of Science, Global Health Library, three Chinese databases, and Google search, and also identified a further 41 high-quality unpublished studies through an international research network. We included studies reporting community incidence of ALRI with laboratory-confirmed hPIV; hospital admission rates of ALRI or ALRI with hypoxaemia in children with laboratory-confirmed hPIV; proportions of patients with ALRI admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed hPIV; or in-hospital case-fatality ratios (hCFRs) of ALRI with laboratory-confirmed hPIV. We used a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess risk of bias. We analysed incidence, hospital admission rates, and hCFRs of hPIV-associated ALRI using a generalised linear mixed model. Adjustment was made to account for the non-detection of hPIV-4. We estimated hPIV-associated ALRI cases, hospital admissions, and in-hospital deaths using adjusted incidence, hospital admission rates, and hCFRs. We estimated the overall hPIV-associated ALRI mortality (both in-hospital and out-hospital mortality) on the basis of the number of in-hospital deaths and care-seeking for child pneumonia. We estimated hPIV-attributable ALRI burden by accounting for attributable fractions for hPIV in laboratory-confirmed hPIV cases and deaths. Sensitivity analyses were done to validate the estimates of overall hPIV-associated ALRI mortality and hPIV-attributable ALRI mortality. The systematic review protocol was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42019148570). FINDINGS: 203 studies were identified, including 162 hPIV-associated ALRI burden studies and a further 41 high-quality unpublished studies. Globally in 2018, an estimated 18·8 million (uncertainty range 12·8-28·9) ALRI cases, 725 000 (433 000-1 260 000) ALRI hospital admissions, and 34 400 (16 400-73 800) ALRI deaths were attributable to hPIVs among children younger than 5 years. The age-stratified and region-stratified analyses suggested that about 61% (35% for infants aged 0-5 months and 26% for 6-11 months) of the hospital admissions and 66% (42% for infants aged 0-5 months and 24% for 6-11 months) of the in-hospital deaths were in infants, and 70% of the in-hospital deaths were in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Between 73% and 100% (varying by outcome) of the data had a low risk in study design; the proportion was 46-65% for the adjustment for health-care use, 59-77% for patient groups excluded, 54-93% for case definition, 42-93% for sampling strategy, and 67-77% for test methods. Heterogeneity in estimates was found between studies for each outcome. INTERPRETATION: We report the first global burden estimates of hPIV-associated and hPIV-attributable ALRI in young children. Globally, approximately 13% of ALRI cases, 4-14% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of childhood ALRI mortality were attributable to hPIV. These numbers indicate a potentially notable burden of hPIV in ALRI morbidity and mortality in young children. These estimates should encourage and inform investment to accelerate the development of targeted interventions. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of acute lower respiratory infection associated with human metapneumovirus in children under 5 years in 2018: a systematic review and modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Human metapneumovirus is a common virus associated with acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs) in children. No global burden estimates are available for ALRIs associated with human metapneumovirus in children, and no licensed vaccines or drugs exist for human metapneumovirus infections. We aimed to estimate the age-stratified human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI global incidence, hospital admissions, and mortality burden in children younger than 5 years. METHODS: We estimated the global burden of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRIs in children younger than 5 years from a systematic review of 119 studies published between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2019, and a further 40 high quality unpublished studies. We assessed risk of bias using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. We estimated incidence, hospital admission rates, and in-hospital case-fatality ratios (hCFRs) of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI using a generalised linear mixed model. We applied incidence and hospital admission rates of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI to population estimates to yield the morbidity burden estimates by age bands and World Bank income levels. We also estimated human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI in-hospital deaths and overall human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI deaths (both in-hospital and non-hospital deaths). Additionally, we estimated human metapneumovirus-attributable ALRI cases, hospital admissions, and deaths by combining human metapneumovirus-associated burden estimates and attributable fractions of human metapneumovirus in laboratory-confirmed human metapneumovirus cases and deaths. FINDINGS: In 2018, among children younger than 5 years globally, there were an estimated 14·2 million human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI cases (uncertainty range [UR] 10·2 million to 20·1 million), 643 000 human metapneumovirus-associated hospital admissions (UR 425 000 to 977 000), 7700 human metapneumovirus-associated in-hospital deaths (2600 to 48 800), and 16 100 overall (hospital and community) human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI deaths (5700 to 88 000). An estimated 11·1 million ALRI cases (UR 8·0 million to 15·7 million), 502 000 ALRI hospital admissions (UR 332 000 to 762 000), and 11 300 ALRI deaths (4000 to 61 600) could be causally attributed to human metapneumovirus in 2018. Around 58% of the hospital admissions were in infants under 12 months, and 64% of in-hospital deaths occurred in infants younger than 6 months, of which 79% occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. INTERPRETATION: Infants younger than 1 year have disproportionately high risks of severe human metapneumovirus infections across all World Bank income regions and all child mortality settings, similar to respiratory syncytial virus and influenza virus. Infants younger than 6 months in low-income and lower-middle-income countries are at greater risk of death from human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI than older children and those in upper-middle-income and high-income countries. Our mortality estimates demonstrate the importance of intervention strategies for infants across all settings, and warrant continued efforts to improve the outcome of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI among young infants in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of respiratory infections associated with seasonal influenza in children under 5 years in 2018: a systematic review and modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal influenza virus is a common cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children. In 2008, we estimated that 20 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI and 1 million influenza-virus-associated severe ALRI occurred in children under 5 years globally. Despite this substantial burden, only a few low-income and middle-income countries have adopted routine influenza vaccination policies for children and, where present, these have achieved only low or unknown levels of vaccine uptake. Moreover, the influenza burden might have changed due to the emergence and circulation of influenza A/H1N1pdm09. We aimed to incorporate new data to update estimates of the global number of cases, hospital admissions, and mortality from influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years in 2018. METHODS: We estimated the regional and global burden of influenza-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years from a systematic review of 100 studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2018, and a further 57 high-quality unpublished studies. We adapted the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess the risk of bias. We estimated incidence and hospitalisation rates of influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections by severity, case ascertainment, region, and age. We estimated in-hospital deaths from influenza virus ALRI by combining hospital admissions and in-hospital case-fatality ratios of influenza virus ALRI. We estimated the upper bound of influenza virus-associated ALRI deaths based on the number of in-hospital deaths, US paediatric influenza-associated death data, and population-based childhood all-cause pneumonia mortality data in six sites in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. FINDINGS: In 2018, among children under 5 years globally, there were an estimated 109·5 million influenza virus episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 63·1-190·6), 10·1 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI cases (6·8-15·1); 870 000 influenza-virus-associated ALRI hospital admissions (543 000-1 415 000), 15 300 in-hospital deaths (5800-43 800), and up to 34 800 (13 200-97 200) overall influenza-virus-associated ALRI deaths. Influenza virus accounted for 7% of ALRI cases, 5% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of ALRI deaths in children under 5 years. About 23% of the hospital admissions and 36% of the in-hospital deaths were in infants under 6 months. About 82% of the in-hospital deaths occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. INTERPRETATION: A large proportion of the influenza-associated burden occurs among young infants and in low-income and lower middle-income countries. Our findings provide new and important evidence for maternal and paediatric influenza immunisation, and should inform future immunisation policy particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. FUNDING: WHO; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Assessing development across cultures: Invariance of the Bayley-III Scales Across Seven International MAL-ED sites.

The Bayley's Scales of Infant and Toddler Development-Third Edition (Bayley-III) were used to measure the development of 24-month-old children (N = 1,452) in the Interactions of Malnutrition and Enteric Infections: Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) study (an international, multisite study on many aspects of child development). This study examined the factor structure and measurement equivalence/invariance of Bayley-III scores across 7 international research sites located in Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Peru, and South Africa. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were used to identify the factor structure of Bayley-III scores. Subsequently, reliability analyses and item response theory analyses were applied, and invariance was examined using multiple-indicator, multiple-cause modeling. The findings supported the validity, but not invariance, of Bayley-III language scores at all seven sites and of the cognitive and motor scores at six sites. These findings provide support for the use of scores for research purposes, but mean comparison between sites is not recommended. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Risk factors for respiratory syncytial virus associated with acute lower respiratory infection in children under five years: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common pathogen identified in young children with acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) as well as an important cause of hospital admission. The high incidence of RSV infection and its potential severe outcome make it important to identify and prioritise children who are at higher risk of developing RSV-associated ALRI. We aimed to identify risk factors for RSV-associated ALRI in young children. METHODS: We carried out a systematic literature review across 4 databases and obtained unpublished studies from RSV Global Epidemiology Network (RSV GEN) collaborators. Quality of all eligible studies was assessed according to modified GRADE criteria. We conducted meta-analyses to estimate odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for individual risk factors. RESULTS: We identified 20 studies (3 were unpublished data) with "good quality" that investigated 18 risk factors for RSV-associated ALRI in children younger than five years old. Among them, 8 risk factors were significantly associated with RSV-associated ALRI. The meta-estimates of their odds ratio (ORs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) are prematurity 1.96 (95% CI 1.44-2.67), low birth weight 1.91 (95% CI 1.45-2.53), being male 1.23 (95% CI 1.13-1.33), having siblings 1.60 (95% CI 1.32-1.95), maternal smoking 1.36 (95% CI 1.24-1.50), history of atopy 1.47 (95% CI 1.16-1.87), no breastfeeding 2.24 (95% CI 1.56-3.20) and crowding 1.94 (95% CI 1.29-2.93). Although there were insufficient studies available to generate a meta-estimate for HIV, all articles (irrespective of quality scores) reported significant associations between HIV and RSV-associated ALRI. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents a comprehensive report of the strength of association between various socio-demographic risk factors and RSV-associated ALRI in young children. Some of these amenable risk factors are similar to those that have been identified for (all cause) ALRI and thus, in addition to the future impact of novel RSV vaccines, national action against ALRI risk factors as part of national control programmes can be expected to reduce burden of disease from RSV. Further research which identifies, accesses and analyses additional unpublished RSV data sets could further improve the precision of these estimates.

The MAL-ED cohort study: methods and lessons learned when assessing early child development and caregiving mediators in infants and young children in 8 low- and middle-income countries.

More epidemiological data are needed on risk and protective factors for child development. In The Etiology, Risk Factors and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) cohort study, we assessed child development in a harmonious manner across 8 sites in Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Peru, South Africa, and Tanzania. From birth to 24 months, development and language acquisition were assessed via the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development and a modified MacArthur Communicative Development Inventory. Other measures were infant temperament, the child's environment, maternal psychological adjustment, and maternal reasoning abilities. We developed standard operating procedures and used multiple techniques to ensure appropriate adaptation and quality assurance across the sites. Test adaptation required significant time and human resources but is essential for data quality; funders should support this step in future studies. At the end of this study, we will have a portfolio of culturally adapted instruments for child development studies with examination of psychometric properties of each tool used.

Postpartum depressive symptoms across time and place: structural invariance of the Self-Reporting Questionnaire among women from the international, multi-site MAL-ED study.

BACKGROUND: The Self-Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ) is a screening instrument that has been shown to be an effective measure of depression in postpartum women and is widely used in developing nations. METHODS: The SRQ was administered to 2028 mothers from eight nations at two time points: one and six months postpartum. All data were obtained from the Interactions of Malnutrition and Enteric Infections: Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) study. The sample included women from MAL-ED sites in Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Peru, South Africa, and Tanzania. This study examined three aspects of validity of SRQ scores including (a) structural validity, (b) cross-cultural invariance, and (c) invariance over time. RESULTS: A 16-item, one-factor structure with items reflecting somatic symptoms removed was deemed to be superior to the original structure in this postpartum population. Although differential item functioning (DIF) across sites was evident the one-factor model was a good fit to the data from seven sites, and the structure was invariant across the one- and six-month time points. LIMITATIONS: Findings are based on data from self-report scales. No information about the clinical status of the participants was available. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, findings support the validity of a modified model of the SRQ among postpartum women. Somatic symptoms (e.g., headaches, not sleeping well) may not reflect internalizing problems in a postpartum population. Implications for researchers and practitioners are discussed.

Catch-up growth occurs after diarrhea in early childhood.

Diarrhea and linear growth faltering continue to burden low-income countries and are among the most important contributors to poor health during early childhood. Diarrhea is thought to adversely affect linear growth, but catch-up growth can occur if no additional insults are experienced. We sought to characterize catch-up growth in relation to diarrhea burden in a multisite dataset of 1007 children. Using longitudinal anthropometry and diarrheal surveillance data from 7 cohort studies in 4 countries, we examined the relation between diarrhea prevalence and growth in 3- to 6-mo periods using linear mixed-effect models. Growth during each period was calculated as a function of age using linear splines. We incorporated the longitudinal prevalence of diarrhea in both current and previous periods into the model. Diarrhea during the current period was associated with slower linear and ponderal growth. Faster (catch-up) growth in length was observed in children with no diarrhea in age groups immediately after an age group in which diarrhea was experienced [age group >6-12 mo: 0.03 mm/mo for each percentage diarrhea prevalence in the previous period (95% CI: 0.007, 0.06) relative to 11.3 mm/mo mean growth rate; age group >12-18 mo: 0.04 mm/mo (95% CI: 0.02, 0.06) relative to 8.9 mm/mo mean growth rate; age group >18-24 mo: 0.04 mm/mo (95% CI: 0.003, 0.09) relative to 7.9 mm/mo mean growth rate]. The associations were stronger in boys than in girls when separate models were run. Similar results were observed when weight was the outcome variable. When diarrheal episodes are followed by diarrhea-free periods in the first 2 y of life, catch-up growth is observed that may allow children to regain their original trajectories. The finding of a greater effect of diarrhea on linear growth in boys than in girls was unexpected and requires additional study. Diarrhea burdens are high throughout the first 2 y of life in these study sites, therefore reducing the likelihood of catch-up growth. Extending diarrhea-free periods may increase the likelihood of catch-up growth and decrease the prevalence of stunting.

Diarrhea in early childhood: short-term association with weight and long-term association with length.

The short-term association between diarrhea and weight is well-accepted, but the long-term association between diarrhea and growth is less clear. Using data from 7 cohort studies (Peru, 1985-1987; Peru, 1989-1991; Peru, 1995-1998; Brazil, 1989-1998; Guinea-Bissau, 1987-1990; Guinea-Bissau, 1996-1997; and Bangladesh, 1993-1996), we evaluated the lagged relationship between diarrhea and growth in the first 2 years of life. Our analysis included 1,007 children with 597,638 child-days of diarrhea surveillance and 15,629 anthropometric measurements. We calculated the associations between varying diarrhea burdens during lagged 30-day periods and length at 24 months of age. The cumulative association between the average diarrhea burden and length at age 24 months was -0.38 cm (95% confidence interval: -0.59, -0.17). Diarrhea during the 30 days prior to anthropometric measurement was consistently associated with lower weight at most ages, but there was little indication of a short-term association with length. Diarrhea was associated with a small but measurable decrease in linear growth over the long term. These findings support a focus on prevention of diarrhea as part of an overall public health strategy for improving child health and nutrition; however, more research is needed to explore catch-up growth and potential confounders.

Wasting is associated with stunting in early childhood.

The longitudinal relationship between stunting and wasting in children is poorly characterized. Instances of wasting or poor weight gain may precede linear growth retardation. We analyzed longitudinal anthropometric data for 1599 children from 8 cohort studies to determine the effect of wasting [weight-for-length Z-score (WLZ) < -2] and variability in WLZ in the first 17 mo on length-for-age Z-score (LAZ) at 18-24 mo of age. In addition, we considered the effects of change in WLZ during the previous 6-mo period on length at 18 and 24 mo. Wasting at 6-11 or 12-17 mo was associated with decreased LAZ; however, children who experienced wasting only at 0-5 mo did not suffer any long-term growth deficits compared with children with no wasting during any period. Children with greater WLZ variability (≥0.5 SD) in the first 17 mo of life were shorter [LAZ = -0.51 SD (95% CI: -0.67, -0.36 SD)] at 18-24 mo of age than children with WLZ variability <0.5. Change in WLZ in the previous 6-mo period was directly associated with greater attained length at 18 mo [0.33 cm (95% CI: 0.11, 0.54 cm)] and 24 mo [0.72 cm (95% CI: 0.52, 0.92 cm)]. Children with wasting, highly variable WLZ, or negative changes in WLZ are at a higher risk for linear growth retardation, although instances of wasting may not be the primary cause of stunting in developing countries.

Use of a pneumonia management tool to manage children with pneumonia at the first level health care facilities.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the application and evaluation of Pneumonia Management Tool (PMT) to manage children with non-severe pneumonia (NSP) at the first level health care (FLHC) facilities according to the standard case management (SCM) guidelines for acute respiratory infections (ARI). METHOD: The ARI SCM guidelines were simplified to a PMT and used by health workers at 14 FLHC facilities to assess, manage and monitor children with NSP and to educate caretakers on home care and follow-up visits. The district supervisors provided on the job support to various cadres of health workers of both public and private facilities. RESULTS: Of 949 children with NSP, 940 (99%) were successfully treated at FLHC facilities. Caretakers found PMT useful and of 1888 follow-up visits: 1872 (99.2%) brought PMT copy; 1627 (86.2%) brought their children to the facility; 1799 (95.3%) were on time and; 1857 (98.4%) had maintained antibiotic compliance. Using PMT, health workers adherence to SCM guidelines improved from 14% at baseline to 29% after training and 65% with on the job support. The practices remained similar among various cadres of health workers. CONCLUSIONS: Health workers used PMT in managing children with NSP, counselling caretakers on home care, follow-up visits and monitoring the treatment outcome. District level supervision helped to maintain a uniform skill enhancement.

Randomized controlled trial of standard versus double dose cotrimoxazole for childhood pneumonia in Pakistan.

OBJECTIVE: Increasing concern over bacterial resistance to cotrimoxazole, which is recommended by WHO as a first-line drug for treating non-severe pneumonia, led to the suggestion that this might not be optimal therapy. However, changing to alternative antimicrobial agents, such as amoxicillin, is costly. We compared the clinical efficacy of twice-daily cotrimoxazole in standard versus double dosage for treating non-severe pneumonia in children. METHODS: A randomized controlled multicentre trial was implemented in seven hospital outpatient departments and two community health programmes. A total of 1143 children aged 2-59 months with non-severe pneumonia were randomly allocated to receive 4 mg trimethoprim plus 20 mg sulfamethoxazole/kg of body weight or 8 mg trimethoprim plus 40 mg sulfamethoxazole/kg of body weight orally twice-daily for 5 days Treatment failure occurred when a child required a change of therapy, died or was lost to follow-up. Children required a change of therapy if their condition worsened (they developed chest indrawing or danger signs) or if at 48 hours after enrollment, their clinical condition was the same (defined as having a respiratory rate that was 5 breaths/minute higher or lower than at the time of enrollment). FINDINGS: The results of 1134 children were analysed: 578 were assigned to the standard dose of cotrimoxazole and 556 to the double dose. Treatment failed in 112 children (19.4%) in the standard group and 118 (21.2%) in the double-dose group (relative risk 1.10; 95% confidence interval = 0.87-1.37). Using multivariate analysis we found that treatment was more likely to fail in children who were not given the medicine correctly (P = 0.001), in those younger than 12 months (P = 0.004), those who had used antibiotics previously (P = 0.002), those whose respiratory rate was > or =20 breaths/minute above the age-specific cut-off point (P = 0.006), and those from urban areas (P = 0.042). CONCLUSION: Both standard and double strength cotrimoxazole were equally effective in treating non-severe pneumonia. Close follow-up of patients is essential to prevent worsening of disease. Definitions of clinical failure need to be more specific. Surveillance in both rural and urban areas is essential in the development of treatment policies that are based on clinical outcomes.