Exploring the biology of ctDNA release in colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) has emerged as a promising tool for early cancer detection and minimal residual disease monitoring. However, the biology underlying ctDNA release and its variation across cancer types and histologies remains poorly understood. This study investigated the biology behind ctDNA shedding in colorectal cancer. METHODS: The study included a local cohort of 747 stage I-III colorectal cancer patients. All patients had ctDNA measurement prior to treatment and extensive clinical data. Primary tumor RNA sequencing and whole exome sequencing was performed in 95 and 652 patients respectively. Additionally, the study evaluated 89 non-small cell lung cancer patients from the TRACERx cohort, comprising primary tumor RNA sequencing and ctDNA measurement. RESULTS: We found tumor size and proliferative capacity to be key factors associated with ctDNA shedding in colorectal cancer. Furthermore, we found that the secretory and CMS3 colorectal cancer subtypes exhibited lower ctDNA shedding, while microsatellite instability (MSI) tumors had higher levels of ctDNA. Mutational analysis did not reveal any genes or pathways associated with ctDNA shedding in colorectal cancer. A comparison of transcriptomic profiles across multiple cancer types demonstrated that colorectal cancer and lung squamous cell carcinoma tumors shared a high-proliferative ctDNA shedding phenotype, while lung adenocarcinoma tumors displayed a distinct low-proliferative subgroup. Additionally, proliferation levels correlated with ctDNA detection sensitivity across multiple cancer types. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that tumor size and proliferative capacity are drivers of ctDNA release in colorectal cancer and provide insights into the biology of ctDNA shedding on a pan-cancer level.

Comparing single-target and multitarget approaches for postoperative circulating tumour DNA detection in stage II-III colorectal cancer patients.

Circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) detection for postoperative risk stratification in cancer patients has great clinical potential. However, low ctDNA abundances complicates detection. Multitarget (MT) detection strategies have been developed to increase sensitivity. Yet, empirical evidence supporting performance gains of MT vs. single-target (ST) strategies in a postoperative setting is limited. We compared ctDNA detection in 379 paired plasma samples from 112 stage II-III colorectal cancer patients by ST digital PCR and MT sequencing of 16 patient-specific variants. The strategies exhibited good concordance (90%, Cohen's Kappa 0.79), with highly correlated ctDNA quantifications (Pearson r = 0.985). A difference was observed in ctDNA detection preoperatively (ST 72/92, MT 88/92). However, no difference was observed immediately after surgery in recurrence (ST 11/22, MT 10/22) or nonrecurrence (both 2/34) patients. In serial samples, detection was similar within recurrence (ST 13/16, MT 14/16) and nonrecurrence (ST 3/49, MT 1/49) patients. Both approaches yielded similar lead times to standard-of-care radiology (ST 4.0 months, MT 4.1 months). Our findings do not support significant performance gains of the MT strategy over the ST strategy for postoperative ctDNA detection.

Tumour-agnostic circulating tumour DNA analysis for improved recurrence surveillance after resection of colorectal liver metastases: A prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: Nearly 50% of patients recur within two years after curatively intended resection of colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRLM). The optimal surveillance strategy is unknown due to the lack of evidence. Here, we explored the potential for improving postoperative CRLM surveillance by performing serial circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) assessments parallel to standard-of-care surveillance. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: 499 prospectively collected serial plasma samples from 96 patients undergoing CRLM resection were analysed using the tumour-agnostic methylation multiplex droplet-digital PCR test 'TriMeth'. RESULTS: Patients with ctDNA postoperatively or post adjuvant chemotherapy experienced a significant lower recurrence-free survival than patients without ctDNA (hazard ratio (HR) 4.5; P < 0.0001 and HR 8.4, P < 0.0001). ctDNA status was a stronger predictor of recurrence than standard clinical risk factors and carcinoembryonic antigen. Serial TriMeth analysis detected ctDNA before radiological recurrence in 55.6% of ctDNA-positive patients, with up to 10.6 months lead-time (median 3.1 months). During surveillance, 24% of patients had inconclusive CT scans, which was associated with a significant delay in recurrence diagnosis (median 3.5 months versus 1.0 month, P < 0.0001). Uniquely, ctDNA status at the time of inconclusive CT scans predicted recurrence with positive and negative predictive values of 100%, and 75% (P = 0.0003). Serial TriMeth analysis allowed ctDNA growth rate assessment and revealed that fast ctDNA growth was associated with poor overall survival (HR: 1.6, P = 0.0052). CONCLUSIONS: Serial postoperative ctDNA analysis has a strong prognostic value and is more sensitive for recurrence detection than standard-of-care CRLM surveillance tools. Altogether, TriMeth provides several opportunities for improving postoperative surveillance of CRLM patients.

Circulating tumor DNA for prognosis assessment and postoperative management after curative-intent resection of colorectal liver metastases.

The recurrence rate of colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) patients treated with curative intent is above 50%. Standard of care surveillance includes intensive computed tomographic (CT) imaging as well as carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) measurements. Nonetheless, relapse detection often happens too late to resume curative treatment. This longitudinal cohort study enrolled 115 patients with plasma samples (N = 439) prospectively collected before surgery, postoperatively at day 30 and every third month for up to 3 years. Droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) was used to monitor serial plasma samples for somatic mutations. Assessment of ctDNA status either immediately after surgery, or serially during surveillance, stratified the patients into groups of high and low recurrence risk (hazard ratio [HR], 7.6; 95% CI, 3.0-19.7; P < .0001; and HR, 4.3; 95% CI, 2.3-8.1; P < .0001, respectively). The positive predictive value (PPV) of ctDNA was 100% in all postoperative analyses. In multivariable analyses, postoperative ctDNA status was the only consistently significant risk marker associated with relapse (P < .0001). Indeterminate CT findings were observed for 30.8% (21/68) of patients. All patients (9/21) that were ctDNA positive at the time of the indeterminate CT scan later relapsed, contrasting 42.6% (5/12) of those ctDNA negative (P = .0046). Recurrence diagnoses in patients with indeterminate CT findings were delayed (median 2.8 months, P < .0001). ctDNA status is strongly associated with detection of minimal residual disease and early detection of relapse. Furthermore, ctDNA status can potentially contribute to clinical decision-making in case of indeterminate CT findings, reducing time-to-intervention.

Error Characterization and Statistical Modeling Improves Circulating Tumor DNA Detection by Droplet Digital PCR.

BACKGROUND: Droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) is a widely used and sensitive application for circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) detection. As ctDNA is often found in low abundance, methods to separate low-signal readouts from noise are necessary. We aimed to characterize the ddPCR-generated noise and, informed by this, create a sensitive and specific ctDNA caller. METHODS: We built 2 novel complimentary ctDNA calling methods: dynamic limit of blank and concentration and assay-specific tumor load estimator (CASTLE). Both methods are informed by empirically established assay-specific noise profiles. Here, we characterized noise for 70 mutation-detecting ddPCR assays by applying each assay to 95 nonmutated samples. Using these profiles, the performance of the 2 new methods was assessed in a total of 9447 negative/positive reference samples and in 1311 real-life plasma samples from colorectal cancer patients. Lastly, performances were compared to 7 literature-established calling methods. RESULTS: For many assays, noise increased proportionally with the DNA input amount. Assays targeting transition base changes were more error-prone than transversion-targeting assays. Both our calling methods successfully accounted for the additional noise in transition assays and showed consistently high performance regardless of DNA input amount. Calling methods that were not noise-informed performed less well than noise-informed methods. CASTLE was the only calling method providing a statistical estimate of the noise-corrected mutation level and call certainty. CONCLUSIONS: Accurate error modeling is necessary for sensitive and specific ctDNA detection by ddPCR. Accounting for DNA input amounts ensures specific detection regardless of the sample-specific DNA concentration. Our results demonstrate CASTLE as a powerful tool for ctDNA calling using ddPCR.

Circulating Tumor DNA in Stage III Colorectal Cancer, beyond Minimal Residual Disease Detection, toward Assessment of Adjuvant Therapy Efficacy and Clinical Behavior of Recurrences.

PURPOSE: Sensitive methods for risk stratification, monitoring therapeutic efficacy, and early relapse detection may have a major impact on treatment decisions and patient management for stage III colorectal cancer patients. Beyond assessing the predictive power of postoperative ctDNA detection, we explored the added benefits of serial analysis: assessing adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) efficacy, early relapse detection, and ctDNA growth rates. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We recruited 168 patients with stage III colorectal cancer treated with curative intent at Danish and Spanish hospitals between 2014 and 2019. To quantify ctDNA in plasma samples (n = 1,204), 16 patient-specific somatic single-nucleotide variants were profiled using multiplex-PCR, next-generation sequencing. RESULTS: Detection of ctDNA was a strong recurrence predictor postoperatively [HR = 7.0; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.7-13.5; P < 0.001] and directly after ACT (HR = 50.76; 95% CI, 15.4-167; P < 0.001). The recurrence rate of postoperative ctDNA-positive patients treated with ACT was 80% (16/20). Only patients who cleared ctDNA permanently during ACT did not relapse. Serial ctDNA assessment after the end of treatment was similarly predictive of recurrence (HR = 50.80; 95% CI, 14.9-172; P < 0.001), and revealed two distinct rates of exponential ctDNA growth, slow (25% ctDNA-increase/month) and fast (143% ctDNA-increase/month; P < 0.001). The ctDNA growth rate was prognostic of survival (HR = 2.7; 95% CI, 1.1-6.7; P = 0.039). Serial ctDNA analysis every 3 months detected recurrence with a median lead-time of 9.8 months compared with standard-of-care computed tomography. CONCLUSIONS: Serial postoperative ctDNA analysis has a strong prognostic value and enables tumor growth rate assessment. The novel combination of ctDNA detection and growth rate assessment provides unique opportunities for guiding decision-making.See related commentary by Morris and George, p. 438.

Age-stratified reference intervals unlock the clinical potential of circulating cell-free DNA as a biomarker of poor outcome for healthy individuals and patients with colorectal cancer.

Circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA) has spurred much interest as a biomarker in oncology. However, inter- and intra-individual cfDNA levels vary greatly. Consequently, in order to base clinical decisions on cfDNA measurements, normal reference intervals are essential to avoid that ordinary variation is confused with clinically relevant change. The lack of reference intervals may potentially explain the ambiguous results reported in the field. Our study aimed to establish reference intervals and to evaluate the association between cfDNA and demographic and clinical variables, including colorectal cancer (CRC). Plasma samples and clinical data from 2817 subjects were collected including 1930 noncancer individuals and 887 CRC patients. cfDNA was measured using droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The large cohort combined with robust cfDNA quantification enabled establishment of reference intervals (<67 years: 775-4860 copies/mL; ≥67 years: 807-6561 copies/mL). A cfDNA level above the age-stratified 90% percentile was prognostic of reduced survival in both noncancer individuals and CRC patients, with HR values of 2.56 and 2.01, respectively. Moreover, cfDNA levels increased significantly with age, elevated BMI and chronic diseases. In CRC, the cfDNA level was increased for Stage IV, but not Stage I to Stage III cancer. In summary, the use of reference intervals revealed that high cfDNA levels were predictive of shorter survival in both noncancer individuals and CRC patients, and that CRC development did not affect the cfDNA level until metastatic dissemination. Furthermore, cfDNA levels were impacted by age and chronic diseases. Conclusively, our study presents reference intervals that will help pave the way for clinical utilization of cfDNA.

The effect of surgical trauma on circulating free DNA levels in cancer patients-implications for studies of circulating tumor DNA.

Detection of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) post-treatment is an emerging marker of residual disease. ctDNA constitutes only a minor fraction of the cell-free DNA (cfDNA) circulating in cancer patients, complicating ctDNA detection. This is exacerbated by trauma-induced cfDNA. To guide optimal blood sample timing, we investigated the duration and magnitude of surgical trauma-induced cfDNA in patients with colorectal or bladder cancer. DNA levels were quantified in paired plasma samples collected before and up to 6 weeks after surgery from 436 patients with colorectal cancer and 47 patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer. To assess whether trauma-induced cfDNA fragments are longer than ordinary cfDNA fragments, the concentration of short (< 1 kb) and long (> 1 kb) fragments was determined for 91 patients. Previously reported ctDNA data from 91 patients with colorectal cancer and 47 patients with bladder cancer were used to assess how trauma-induced DNA affects ctDNA detection. The total cfDNA level increased postoperatively-both in patients with colorectal cancer (mean threefold) and bladder cancer (mean eightfold). The DNA levels were significantly increased up to 4 weeks after surgery in both patient cohorts (P = 0.0005 and P ≤ 0.0001). The concentration of short, but not long, cfDNA fragments increased postoperatively. Of 25 patients with radiological relapse, eight were ctDNA-positive and 17 were ctDNA-negative in the period with trauma-induced DNA. Analysis of longitudinal samples revealed that five of the negative patients became positive shortly after the release of trauma-induced cfDNA had ceased. In conclusion, surgery was associated with elevated cfDNA levels, persisting up to 4 weeks, which may have masked ctDNA in relapse patients. Trauma-induced cfDNA was of similar size to ordinary cfDNA. To mitigate the impact of trauma-induced cfDNA on ctDNA detection, it is recommended that a second blood sample collected after week 4 is analyzed for patients initially ctDNA negative.

Analysis of Plasma Cell-Free DNA by Ultradeep Sequencing in Patients With Stages I to III Colorectal Cancer.

IMPORTANCE: Novel sensitive methods for detection and monitoring of residual disease can improve postoperative risk stratification with implications for patient selection for adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT), ACT duration, intensity of radiologic surveillance, and, ultimately, outcome for patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) with recurrence using longitudinal data from ultradeep sequencing of plasma cell-free DNA in patients with CRC before and after surgery, during and after ACT, and during surveillance. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this prospective, multicenter cohort study, ctDNA was quantified in the preoperative and postoperative settings of stages I to III CRC by personalized multiplex, polymerase chain reaction-based, next-generation sequencing. The study enrolled 130 patients at the surgical departments of Aarhus University Hospital, Randers Hospital, and Herning Hospital in Denmark from May 1, 2014, to January 31, 2017. Plasma samples (n = 829) were collected before surgery, postoperatively at day 30, and every third month for up to 3 years. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Outcomes were ctDNA measurement, clinical recurrence, and recurrence-free survival. RESULTS: A total of 130 patients with stages I to III CRC (mean [SD] age, 67.9 [10.1] years; 74 [56.9%] male) were enrolled in the study; 5 patients discontinued participation, leaving 125 patients for analysis. Preoperatively, ctDNA was detectable in 108 of 122 patients (88.5%). After definitive treatment, longitudinal ctDNA analysis identified 14 of 16 relapses (87.5%). At postoperative day 30, ctDNA-positive patients were 7 times more likely to relapse than ctDNA-negative patients (hazard ratio [HR], 7.2; 95% CI, 2.7-19.0; P < .001). Similarly, shortly after ACT ctDNA-positive patients were 17 times (HR, 17.5; 95% CI, 5.4-56.5; P < .001) more likely to relapse. All 7 patients who were ctDNA positive after ACT experienced relapse. Monitoring during and after ACT indicated that 3 of the 10 ctDNA-positive patients (30.0%) were cleared by ACT. During surveillance after definitive therapy, ctDNA-positive patients were more than 40 times more likely to experience disease recurrence than ctDNA-negative patients (HR, 43.5; 95% CI, 9.8-193.5 P < .001). In all multivariate analyses, ctDNA status was independently associated with relapse after adjusting for known clinicopathologic risk factors. Serial ctDNA analyses revealed disease recurrence up to 16.5 months ahead of standard-of-care radiologic imaging (mean, 8.7 months; range, 0.8-16.5 months). Actionable mutations were identified in 81.8% of the ctDNA-positive relapse samples. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Circulating tumor DNA analysis can potentially change the postoperative management of CRC by enabling risk stratification, ACT monitoring, and early relapse detection.

Early Detection of Metastatic Relapse and Monitoring of Therapeutic Efficacy by Ultra-Deep Sequencing of Plasma Cell-Free DNA in Patients With Urothelial Bladder Carcinoma.

PURPOSE: Novel sensitive methods for early detection of relapse and for monitoring therapeutic efficacy may have a huge impact on risk stratification, treatment, and ultimately outcome for patients with bladder cancer. We addressed the prognostic and predictive impact of ultra-deep sequencing of cell-free DNA in patients before and after cystectomy and during chemotherapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We included 68 patients with localized advanced bladder cancer. Patient-specific somatic mutations, identified by whole-exome sequencing, were used to assess circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) by ultra-deep sequencing (median, 105,000×) of plasma DNA. Plasma samples (n = 656) were procured at diagnosis, during chemotherapy, before cystectomy, and during surveillance. Expression profiling was performed for tumor subtype and immune signature analyses. RESULTS: Presence of ctDNA was highly prognostic at diagnosis before chemotherapy (hazard ratio, 29.1; P = .001). After cystectomy, ctDNA analysis correctly identified all patients with metastatic relapse during disease monitoring (100% sensitivity, 98% specificity). A median lead time over radiographic imaging of 96 days was observed. In addition, for high-risk patients (ctDNA positive before or during treatment), the dynamics of ctDNA during chemotherapy was associated with disease recurrence (P = .023), whereas pathologic downstaging was not. Analysis of tumor-centric biomarkers showed that mutational processes (signature 5) were associated with pathologic downstaging (P = .024); however, no significant correlation for tumor subtypes, DNA damage response mutations, and other biomarkers was observed. Our results suggest that ctDNA analysis is better associated with treatment efficacy compared with other available methods. CONCLUSION: ctDNA assessment for early risk stratification, therapy monitoring, and early relapse detection in bladder cancer is feasible and provides a basis for clinical studies that evaluate early therapeutic interventions.

Direct detection of early-stage cancers using circulating tumor DNA.

Early detection and intervention are likely to be the most effective means for reducing morbidity and mortality of human cancer. However, development of methods for noninvasive detection of early-stage tumors has remained a challenge. We have developed an approach called targeted error correction sequencing (TEC-Seq) that allows ultrasensitive direct evaluation of sequence changes in circulating cell-free DNA using massively parallel sequencing. We have used this approach to examine 58 cancer-related genes encompassing 81 kb. Analysis of plasma from 44 healthy individuals identified genomic changes related to clonal hematopoiesis in 16% of asymptomatic individuals but no alterations in driver genes related to solid cancers. Evaluation of 200 patients with colorectal, breast, lung, or ovarian cancer detected somatic mutations in the plasma of 71, 59, 59, and 68%, respectively, of patients with stage I or II disease. Analyses of mutations in the circulation revealed high concordance with alterations in the tumors of these patients. In patients with resectable colorectal cancers, higher amounts of preoperative circulating tumor DNA were associated with disease recurrence and decreased overall survival. These analyses provide a broadly applicable approach for noninvasive detection of early-stage tumors that may be useful for screening and management of patients with cancer.

Clinical Implications of Monitoring Circulating Tumor DNA in Patients with Colorectal Cancer.

Purpose: We investigated whether detection of ctDNA after resection of colorectal cancer identifies the patients with the highest risk of relapse and, furthermore, whether longitudinal ctDNA analysis allows early detection of relapse and informs about response to intervention.Experimental Design: In this longitudinal cohort study, we used massively parallel sequencing to identify somatic mutations and used these as ctDNA markers to detect minimal residual disease and to monitor changes in tumor burden during a 3-year follow-up period.Results: A total of 45 patients and 371 plasma samples were included. Longitudinal samples from 27 patients revealed ctDNA postoperatively in all relapsing patients (n = 14), but not in any of the nonrelapsing patients. ctDNA detected relapse with an average lead time of 9.4 months compared with CT imaging. Of 21 patients treated for localized disease, six had ctDNA detected within 3 months after surgery. All six later relapsed compared with four of the remaining patients [HR, 37.7; 95% confidence interval (CI), 4.2-335.5; P < 0.001]. The ability of a 3-month ctDNA analysis to predict relapse was confirmed in 23 liver metastasis patients (HR 4.9; 95% CI, 1.5-15.7; P = 0.007). Changes in ctDNA levels induced by relapse intervention (n = 19) showed good agreement with changes in tumor volume (κ = 0.41; Spearman ρ = 0.4).Conclusions: Postoperative ctDNA detection provides evidence of residual disease and identifies patients at very high risk of relapse. Longitudinal surveillance enables early detection of relapse and informs about response to intervention. These observations have implications for the postoperative management of colorectal cancer patients. Clin Cancer Res; 23(18); 5437-45. ©2017 AACR.

Prognostic Impact of a 12-gene Progression Score in Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer: A Prospective Multicentre Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: Progression of non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) to muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) is life-threatening and cannot be accurately predicted using clinical and pathological risk factors. Biomarkers for stratifying patients to treatment and surveillance are greatly needed. OBJECTIVE: To validate a previously developed 12-gene progression score to predict progression to MIBC in a large, multicentre, prospective study. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We enrolled 1224 patients in ten European centres between 2008 and 2012. A total of 750 patients (851 tumours) fulfilled the inclusion and sample quality criteria for testing. Patients were followed for an average of 28 mo (range 0-76). A 12-gene real-time qualitative polymerase chain reaction assay was performed for all tumours and progression scores were calculated using a predefined formula and cut-off values. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: We measured progression to MIBC using Cox regression analysis and log-rank tests for comparing survival distributions. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The progression score was significantly (p<0.001) associated with age, stage, grade, carcinoma in situ, bacillus Calmette-Guérin treatment, European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer risk score, and disease progression. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that patients molecularly classified as high risk experienced more frequent disease progression (hazard ratio 5.08, 95% confidence interval 2.2-11.6; p<0.001). Multivariable Cox regression models showed that the progression score added independent prognostic information beyond clinical and histopathological risk factors (p<0.001), with an increase in concordance statistic from 0.82 to 0.86. The progression score showed high correlation (R2=0.85) between paired fresh-frozen and formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumour specimens, supporting translation potential in the standard clinical setting. A limitation was the relatively low progression rate (5%, 37/750 patients). CONCLUSIONS: The 12-gene progression score had independent prognostic power beyond clinical and histopathological risk factors, and may help in stratifying NMIBC patients to optimise treatment and follow-up regimens. PATIENT SUMMARY: Clinical use of a 12-gene molecular test for disease aggressiveness may help in stratifying patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer to optimal treatment regimens.

Comprehensive Transcriptional Analysis of Early-Stage Urothelial Carcinoma.

Non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) is a heterogeneous disease with widely different outcomes. We performed a comprehensive transcriptional analysis of 460 early-stage urothelial carcinomas and showed that NMIBC can be subgrouped into three major classes with basal- and luminal-like characteristics and different clinical outcomes. Large differences in biological processes such as the cell cycle, epithelial-mesenchymal transition, and differentiation were observed. Analysis of transcript variants revealed frequent mutations in genes encoding proteins involved in chromatin organization and cytoskeletal functions. Furthermore, mutations in well-known cancer driver genes (e.g., TP53 and ERBB2) were primarily found in high-risk tumors, together with APOBEC-related mutational signatures. The identification of subclasses in NMIBC may offer better prognostication and treatment selection based on subclass assignment.

Genomic Alterations in Liquid Biopsies from Patients with Bladder Cancer.

BACKGROUND: At least half of the patients diagnosed with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) experience recurrence and approximately 15% will develop progression to muscle invasive or metastatic disease. Biomarkers for disease surveillance are urgently needed. OBJECTIVE: Development of assays for surveillance using genomic variants in cell-free tumour DNA from plasma and urine. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective pilot study of 377 samples from 12 patients with recurrent or progressive/metastatic disease. Three next-generation sequencing methods were applied and somatic variants in DNA from tumour, plasma, and urine were subsequently monitored by personalised assays using droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR). Samples were collected from 1994 to 2015, with up to 20 yr of follow-up. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Progression to muscle-invasive or metastatic bladder cancer; t test for ddPCR data. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: We developed from one to six personalised assays per patient. Patients with progressive disease showed significantly higher levels of tumour DNA in plasma and urine before disease progression, compared with patients with recurrent disease (p=0.032 and 1.3×10(-6), respectively). Interestingly, tumour DNA was detected in plasma and urine in patients with noninvasive disease, being no longer detectable in disease-free patients. A significant level of heterogeneity was observed for each patient; this could be due to tumour heterogeneity or assay performance. CONCLUSIONS: Cell-free tumour DNA can be detected in plasma and urine, even in patients with noninvasive disease, with high levels of tumour DNA detectable before progression, especially in urine samples. Personalised assays of genomic variants may be useful for disease monitoring. PATIENT SUMMARY: Tumour DNA can be detected in blood and urine in early and advanced stages of bladder cancer. Measurement of these highly tumour-specific biomarkers may represent a novel diagnostic tool to indicate the presence of residual disease or to discover aggressive forms of bladder cancer early in the disease course.

Analysis of circulating tumour DNA to monitor disease burden following colorectal cancer surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To develop an affordable and robust pipeline for selection of patient-specific somatic structural variants (SSVs) being informative about radicality of the primary resection, response to adjuvant therapy, incipient recurrence and response to treatment performed in relation to diagnosis of recurrence. DESIGN: We have established efficient procedures for identification of SSVs by next-generation sequencing and subsequent quantification of 3-6 SSVs in plasma. The consequence of intratumour heterogeneity on our approach was assessed. The level of circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) was quantified in 151 serial plasma samples from six relapsing and five non-relapsing colorectal cancer (CRC) patients by droplet digital PCR, and correlated to clinical findings. RESULTS: Up to six personalised assays were designed for each patient. Our approach enabled efficient temporal assessment of disease status, response to surgical and oncological intervention, and early detection of incipient recurrence. Our approach provided 2-15 (mean 10) months' lead time on detection of metastatic recurrence compared to conventional follow-up. The sensitivity and specificity of the SSVs in terms of detecting postsurgery relapse were 100%. CONCLUSIONS: We show that assessment of ctDNA is a non-invasive, exquisitely specific and highly sensitive approach for monitoring disease load, which has the potential to provide clinically relevant lead times compared with conventional methods. Furthermore, we provide a low-coverage protocol optimised for identifying SSVs with excellent correlation between SSVs identified in tumours and matched metastases. Application of ctDNA analysis has the potential to change clinical practice in the management of CRC.

Mutational context and diverse clonal development in early and late bladder cancer.

Bladder cancer (or urothelial cell carcinoma [UCC]) is characterized by field disease (malignant alterations in surrounding mucosa) and frequent recurrences. Whole-genome, exome, and transcriptome sequencing of 38 tumors, including four metachronous tumor pairs and 20 superficial tumors, identified an APOBEC mutational signature in one-third. This was biased toward the sense strand, correlated with mean expression level, and clustered near breakpoints. A>G mutations were up to eight times more frequent on the sense strand (p<0.002) in [ACG]AT contexts. The patient-specific APOBEC signature was negatively correlated to repair-gene expression and was not related to clinicopathological parameters. Mutations in gene families and single genes were related to tumor stage, and expression of chromatin modifiers correlated with survival. Evolutionary and subclonal analyses of early/late tumor pairs showed a unitary origin, and discrete tumor clones contained mutated cancer genes. The ancestral clones contained Pik3ca/Kdm6a mutations and may reflect the field-disease mutations shared among later tumors.

Estimating upper bounds for occupancy and number of manatees in areas potentially affected by oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

The explosion of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform created the largest marine oil spill in U.S. history. As part of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment process, we applied an innovative modeling approach to obtain upper estimates for occupancy and for number of manatees in areas potentially affected by the oil spill. Our data consisted of aerial survey counts in waters of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and Mississippi. Our method, which uses a Bayesian approach, allows for the propagation of uncertainty associated with estimates from empirical data and from the published literature. We illustrate that it is possible to derive estimates of occupancy rate and upper estimates of the number of manatees present at the time of sampling, even when no manatees were observed in our sampled plots during surveys. We estimated that fewer than 2.4% of potentially affected manatee habitat in our Florida study area may have been occupied by manatees. The upper estimate for the number of manatees present in potentially impacted areas (within our study area) was estimated with our model to be 74 (95%CI 46 to 107). This upper estimate for the number of manatees was conditioned on the upper 95%CI value of the occupancy rate. In other words, based on our estimates, it is highly probable that there were 107 or fewer manatees in our study area during the time of our surveys. Because our analyses apply to habitats considered likely manatee habitats, our inference is restricted to these sites and to the time frame of our surveys. Given that manatees may be hard to see during aerial surveys, it was important to account for imperfect detection. The approach that we described can be useful for determining the best allocation of resources for monitoring and conservation.

Multicenter validation of cyclin D1, MCM7, TRIM29, and UBE2C as prognostic protein markers in non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer.

Transcripts from the four genes encoding cyclin D1, MCM7, TRIM29, and UBE2C have previously been included in gene expression signatures for outcome prediction in stage Ta/T1 urothelial carcinomas. We investigated the prognostic value of the protein expressions in Ta/T1 urothelial carcinomas patients. We used four different tissue microarrays (TMAs) with a total of 859 Ta/T1 urothelial carcinomas from Danish, Swedish, Spanish, and Taiwanese patient cohorts with long-term follow-up. Protein expression was measured by IHC, and antibody specificity was validated by Western blotting. We found the expression of cyclin D1, MCM7, TRIM29, and UBE2C to be significantly associated with progression to muscle-invasive bladder cancer (log-rank test; P < 0.001) in the Danish training cohort (n = 283). Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified cyclin D1 (P = 0.003), TRIM29 (P = 0.001), and UBE2C (P < 0.001) as independent prognostic markers. The prognostic value of the four proteins was validated in a joint validation cohort from Sweden, Spain, and Taiwan (n = 576). Computer-assisted image analysis of the prognostic markers produced results comparable to those obtained by manual scoring. Finally, a four-protein maximum-likelihood classifier was trained on the Danish training cohort and applied to the validation cohort. The four protein markers may help optimize treatment of patients with Ta/T1 bladder cancer. Additional prospective studies are needed for further validation of their clinical relevance.