Tuberculosis Immunoreactivity Surveillance in Malawi (Timasamala)-A protocol for a cross-sectional Mycobacterium tuberculosis immunoreactivity survey in Blantyre, Malawi.

Tuberculosis (TB) transmission and prevalence are dynamic over time, and heterogeneous within populations. Public health programmes therefore require up-to-date, accurate epidemiological data to appropriately allocate resources, target interventions, and track progress towards End TB goals. Current methods of TB surveillance often rely on case notifications, which are biased by access to healthcare, and TB disease prevalence surveys, which are highly resource-intensive, requiring many tens of thousands of people to be tested to identify high-risk groups or capture trends. Surveys of "latent TB infection", or immunoreactivity to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), using tests such as interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) could provide a way to identify TB transmission hotspots, supplementing information from disease notifications, and with greater spatial and temporal resolution than is possible to achieve in disease prevalence surveys. This cross-sectional survey will investigate the prevalence of Mtb immunoreactivity amongst young children, adolescents and adults in Blantyre, Malawi, a high HIV-prevalence city in southern Africa. Through this study we will estimate the annual risk of TB infection (ARTI) in Blantyre and explore individual- and area-level risk factors for infection, as well as investigating geospatial heterogeneity of Mtb infection (and its determinants), and comparing these to the distribution of TB disease case-notifications. We will also evaluate novel diagnostics for Mtb infection (QIAreach QFT) and sampling methodologies (convenience sampling in healthcare settings and community sampling based on satellite imagery), which may increase the feasibility of measuring Mtb infection at large scale. The overall aim is to provide high-resolution epidemiological data and provide new insights into methodologies which may be used by TB programmes globally.

Reasons for disengagement from antiretroviral care in the era of "Treat All" in low- or middle-income countries: a systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Disengagement from antiretroviral therapy (ART) care is an important reason why people living with HIV do not achieve viral load suppression become unwell. METHODS: We searched two databases and conference abstracts from January 2015 to December 2022 for studies which reported reasons for disengagement from ART care. We included quantitative (mainly surveys) and qualitative (in-depth interviews or focus groups) studies conducted after "treat all" or "Option B+" policy adoption. We used an inductive approach to categorize reasons: we report how often reasons were reported in studies and developed a conceptual framework for reasons. RESULTS: We identified 21 studies which reported reasons for disengaging from ART care in the "Treat All" era, mostly in African countries: six studies in the general population of persons living with HIV, nine in pregnant or postpartum women and six in selected populations (one each in people who use drugs, isolated indigenous communities, men, women, adolescents and men who have sex with men). Reasons reported were: side effects or other antiretroviral tablet issues (15 studies); lack of perceived benefit of ART (13 studies); psychological, mental health or drug use (13 studies); concerns about stigma or confidentiality (14 studies); lack of social or family support (12 studies); socio-economic reasons (16 studies); health facility-related reasons (11 studies); and acute proximal events such as unexpected mobility (12 studies). The most common reasons for disengagement were unexpected events, socio-economic reasons, ART side effects or lack of perceived benefit of ART. Conceptually, studies described underlying vulnerability factors (individual, interpersonal, structural and healthcare) but that often unexpected proximal events (e.g. unanticipated mobility) acted as the trigger for disengagement to occur. DISCUSSION: People disengage from ART care for individual, interpersonal, structural and healthcare reasons, and these reasons overlap and interact with each other. While HIV programmes cannot predict and address all events that may lead to disengagement, an approach that recognizes that such shocks will happen could help. CONCLUSIONS: Health services should focus on ways to encourage clients to engage with care by making ART services welcoming, person-centred and more flexible alongside offering adherence interventions, such as counselling and peer support.

Trypanosoma cruzi screening in people living with HIV in the UK.

People living with HIV (PLWH) are at higher risk of reactivation of Chagas disease, a neglected tropical disease, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi. There are no data from UK HIV clinics on the prevalence of T. cruzi. We implemented T. cruzi screening at our clinic as part of routine care for PLWH with epidemiological risk factors. Among 86 patients screened, none had positive serology: one seropositive patient was identified due to increased clinician awareness. Implementing T. cruzi screening as part of routine clinical care was feasible, though labour intensive and identified at-risk individuals.

Accuracy of upper respiratory tract samples to diagnose Mycobacterium tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary tuberculosis due to Mycobacterium tuberculosis can be challenging to diagnose when sputum samples cannot be obtained, which is especially problematic in children and older people. We systematically appraised the performance characteristics and diagnostic accuracy of upper respiratory tract sampling for diagnosing active pulmonary tuberculosis. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Cinahl, Web of Science, Global Health, and Global Health Archive databases for studies published between database inception and Dec 6, 2022 that reported on the accuracy of upper respiratory tract sampling for tuberculosis diagnosis compared with microbiological testing of sputum or gastric aspirate reference standard. We included studies that evaluated the accuracy of upper respiratory tract sampling (laryngeal swabs, nasopharyngeal aspirate, oral swabs, saliva, mouth wash, nasal swabs, plaque samples, and nasopharyngeal swabs) to be tested for microbiological diagnosis of tuberculous (by culture and nucleic acid amplification tests) compared with a reference standard using either sputum or gastric lavage for a microbiological test. We included cohort, case-control, cross-sectional, and randomised controlled studies that recruited participants from any community or clinical setting. We excluded post-mortem studies. We used a random-effects meta-analysis with a bivariate hierarchical model to estimate pooled sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostics odds ratio (DOR; odds of a positive test with disease relative to without), stratified by sampling method. We assessed bias using QUADAS-2 criteria. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021262392). FINDINGS: We screened 10 159 titles for inclusion, reviewed 274 full texts, and included 71, comprising 119 test comparisons published between May 13, 1933, and Dec 19, 2022, in the systematic review (53 in the meta-analysis). For laryngeal swabs, pooled sensitivity was 57·8% (95% CI 50·5-65·0), specificity was 93·8% (88·4-96·8), and DOR was 20·7 (11·1-38·8). Nasopharyngeal aspirate sensitivity was 65·2% (52·0-76·4), specificity was 97·9% (96·0-99·0), and DOR was 91·0 (37·8-218·8). Oral swabs sensitivity was 56·7% (44·3-68·2), specificity was 91·3% (CI 81·0-96·3), and DOR was 13·8 (5·6-34·0). Substantial heterogeneity in diagnostic accuracy was found, probably due to differences in reference and index standards. INTERPRETATION: Upper respiratory tract sampling holds promise to expand access to tuberculosis diagnosis. Exploring historical methods using modern microbiological techniques might further increase options for alternative sample types. Prospective studies are needed to optimise accuracy and utility of sampling methods in clinical practice. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome, and UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

Cyclic nucleotide-induced helical structure activates a TIR immune effector.

Cyclic nucleotide signalling is a key component of antiviral defence in all domains of life. Viral detection activates a nucleotide cyclase to generate a second messenger, resulting in activation of effector proteins. This is exemplified by the metazoan cGAS-STING innate immunity pathway1, which originated in bacteria2. These defence systems require a sensor domain to bind the cyclic nucleotide and are often coupled with an effector domain that, when activated, causes cell death by destroying essential biomolecules3. One example is the Toll/interleukin-1 receptor (TIR) domain, which degrades the essential cofactor NAD+ when activated in response to infection in plants and bacteria2,4,5 or during programmed nerve cell death6. Here we show that a bacterial antiviral defence system generates a cyclic tri-adenylate that binds to a TIR-SAVED effector, acting as the 'glue' to allow assembly of an extended superhelical solenoid structure. Adjacent TIR subunits interact to organize and complete a composite active site, allowing NAD+ degradation. Activation requires extended filament formation, both in vitro and in vivo. Our study highlights an example of large-scale molecular assembly controlled by cyclic nucleotides and reveals key details of the mechanism of TIR enzyme activation.

Know your tuberculosis epidemic-Is it time to add Mycobacterium tuberculosis immunoreactivity back into global surveillance?

Tuberculosis (TB) still causes 1.5 million deaths globally each year. Over recent decades, slow and uneven declines in TB incidence have resulted in a falling prevalence of TB disease, which increasingly concentrates in vulnerable populations. Falling prevalence, while welcome, poses new challenges for TB surveillance. Cross-sectional disease surveys require very large sample sizes to accurately estimate disease burden, and even more participants to detect trends over time or identify high-risk areas or populations, making them prohibitively resource-intensive. In the past, tuberculin skin surveys measuring Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) immunoreactivity were widely used to monitor TB epidemiology in high-incidence settings, but were limited by challenges with both delivering and interpreting the test. Here we argue that the shifting epidemiology of tuberculosis, and the development of new tests for Mtb infection, make it timely and important to revisit the strategy of TB surveillance based on infection or immunoreactivity. Mtb infection surveys carry their own operational challenges and fundamental questions, for example: around survey design and frequency; which groups should be included; how the prevalence of immunoreactivity in a population should be used to estimate force of infection; how individual results should be interpreted and managed; and how surveillance can be delivered efficiently and ethically. However, if these knowledge gaps are addressed, the relative feasibility and lower costs of Mtb infection surveillance offer a powerful and affordable opportunity to better "know your TB epidemic", understand trends, identify high-risk and underserved communities, and tailor public health responses to dynamic epidemiology.

Same-day antiretroviral therapy initiation for people living with HIV who have tuberculosis symptoms: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Tuberculosis symptoms are very common among people living with HIV (PLHIV) initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART), are not specific for tuberculosis disease and may result in delayed ART start. The risks and benefits of same-day ART initiation in PLHIV with tuberculosis symptoms are unknown. METHODS: We systematically reviewed nine databases on 12 March 2020 to identify studies that investigated same-day ART initiation among PLHIV with tuberculosis symptoms and reported both their approach to TB screening and clinical outcomes. We extracted and summarized data about TB screening, numbers of people starting same-day ART and outcomes. RESULTS: We included four studies. Two studies deferred ART for everyone with any tuberculosis symptoms (one or more of cough, fever, night sweats or weight loss) and substantial numbers of people had deferred ART start (28% and 39% did not start same-day ART). Two studies permitted some people with tuberculosis symptoms to start same-day ART, and fewer people deferred ART (2% and 16% did not start same-day). Two of the four studies were conducted sequentially; proven viral load suppression at 8 months was 31% when everyone with tuberculosis symptoms had ART deferred, and 44% when the algorithm was changed so that some people with tuberculosis symptoms could start same-day ART. CONCLUSIONS: Although tuberculosis symptoms are very common in people starting ART, there is insufficient evidence about whether presence of tuberculosis symptoms should lead to ART start being deferred or not. Research to inform clear guidelines would help to maximise the benefits of same-day ART.

Comprehensive occupational health services for healthcare workers in Zimbabwe during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare workers are disproportionately affected by COVID-19. In low- and middle- income countries, they may be particularly impacted by underfunded health systems, lack of personal protective equipment, challenging working conditions and barriers in accessing personal healthcare. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, occupational health screening was implemented at the largest public sector medical centre in Harare, Zimbabwe, during the "first wave" of the country's COVID-19 epidemic. Clients were voluntarily screened for symptoms of COVID-19, and if present, offered a SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid detection assay. In addition, measurement of height, weight, blood pressure and HbA1c, HIV and TB testing, and mental health screening using the Shona Symptom Questionnaire (SSQ-14) were offered. An interviewer-administered questionnaire ascertained client knowledge and experiences related to COVID-19. RESULTS: Between 27th July and 30th October 2020, 951 healthcare workers accessed the service; 210 (22%) were tested for SARS-CoV-2, of whom 12 (5.7%) tested positive. Clients reported high levels of concern about COVID-19 which declined with time, and faced barriers including lack of resources for infection prevention and control. There was a high prevalence of largely undiagnosed non-communicable disease: 61% were overweight or obese, 34% had a blood pressure of 140/90mmHg or above, 10% had an HbA1c diagnostic of diabetes, and 7% had an SSQ-14 score consistent with a common mental disorder. Overall 8% were HIV-positive, with 97% previously diagnosed and on treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Cases of SARS-CoV-2 in healthcare workers mirrored the national epidemic curve. Implementation of comprehensive occupational health services during a pandemic was feasible, and uptake was high. Other comorbidities were highly prevalent, which may be risk factors for severe COVID-19 but are also important independent causes of morbidity and mortality. Healthcare workers are critical to combatting COVID-19; it is essential to support their physical and psychological wellbeing during the pandemic and beyond.

Favorable antibody responses to human coronaviruses in children and adolescents with autoimmune rheumatic diseases.

BACKGROUND: Differences in humoral immunity to coronaviruses, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), between children and adults remain unexplained, and the effect of underlying immune dysfunction or suppression is unknown. Here, we sought to examine the antibody immune competence of children and adolescents with prevalent inflammatory rheumatic diseases, juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM), and juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE) against the seasonal human coronavirus (HCoV)-OC43 that frequently infects this age group. METHODS: Sera were collected from JIA (n = 118), JDM (n = 49), and JSLE (n = 30) patients and from healthy control (n = 54) children and adolescents prior to the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic. We used sensitive flow-cytometry-based assays to determine titers of antibodies that reacted with the spike and nucleoprotein of HCoV-OC43 and cross-reacted with the spike and nucleoprotein of SARS-CoV-2, and we compared them with respective titers in sera from patients with multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children and adolescents (MIS-C). FINDINGS: Despite immune dysfunction and immunosuppressive treatment, JIA, JDM, and JSLE patients maintained comparable or stronger humoral responses than healthier peers, which was dominated by immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies to HCoV-OC43 spike, and harbored IgG antibodies that cross-reacted with SARS-CoV-2 spike. In contrast, responses to HCoV-OC43 and SARS-CoV-2 nucleoproteins exhibited delayed age-dependent class-switching and were not elevated in JIA, JDM, and JSLE patients, which argues against increased exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Consequently, autoimmune rheumatic diseases and their treatment were associated with a favorable ratio of spike to nucleoprotein antibodies. FUNDING: This work was supported by a Centre of Excellence Centre for Adolescent Rheumatology Versus Arthritis grant, 21593, UKRI funding reference MR/R013926/1, the Great Ormond Street Children's Charity, Cure JM Foundation, Myositis UK, Lupus UK, and the NIHR Biomedical Research Centres at GOSH and UCLH. This work was supported by the Francis Crick Institute, which receives its core funding from Cancer Research UK, the UK Medical Research Council, and the Wellcome Trust.

Defining Potential Therapeutic Targets in Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of a Single-Center Cohort.

OBJECTIVES: Multiple mechanisms have been proposed to explain disease severity in coronavirus disease 2019. Therapeutic approaches need to be underpinned by sound biological rationale. We evaluated whether serum levels of a range of proposed coronavirus disease 2019 therapeutic targets discriminated between patients with mild or severe disease. DESIGN: A search of ClinicalTrials.gov identified coronavirus disease 2019 immunological drug targets. We subsequently conducted a retrospective observational cohort study investigating the association of serum biomarkers within the first 5 days of hospital admission relating to putative therapeutic biomarkers with illness severity and outcome. SETTING: University College London, a tertiary academic medical center in the United Kingdom. PATIENTS: Patients admitted to hospital with a diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Eighty-six patients were recruited, 44 (51%) with mild disease and 42 (49%) with severe disease. We measured levels of 10 cytokines/signaling proteins related to the most common therapeutic targets (granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor, interferon-α2a, interferon-ß, interferon-γ, interleukin-1ß, interleukin-1 receptor antagonist, interleukin-6, interleukin-7, interleukin-8, tumor necrosis factor-α), immunoglobulin G antibodies directed against either coronavirus disease 2019 spike protein or nucleocapsid protein, and neutralization titers of antibodies. Four-hundred seventy-seven randomized trials, including 168 different therapies against 83 different pathways, were identified. Six of the 10 markers (interleukin-6, interleukin-7, interleukin-8, interferon-α2a, interferon-ß, interleukin-1 receptor antagonist) discriminated between patients with mild and severe disease, although most were similar or only modestly raised above that seen in healthy volunteers. A similar proportion of patients with mild or severe disease had detectable spike protein or nucleocapsid protein immunoglobulin G antibodies with equivalent levels between groups. Neutralization titers were higher among patients with severe disease. CONCLUSIONS: Some therapeutic and prognostic biomarkers may be useful in identifying coronavirus disease 2019 patients who may benefit from specific immunomodulatory therapies, particularly interleukin-6. However, biomarker absolute values often did not discriminate between patients with mild and severe disease or death, implying that these immunomodulatory treatments may be of limited benefit.

What is the optimum time to start antiretroviral therapy in people with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: HIV and tuberculosis are frequently diagnosed concurrently. In March 2021, World Health Organization recommended that antiretroviral therapy (ART) should be started within two weeks of tuberculosis treatment start, at any CD4 count. We assessed whether earlier ART improved outcomes in people with newly diagnosed HIV and tuberculosis. METHODS: We did a systematic review by searching nine databases for trials that compared earlier ART to later ART initiation in people with HIV and tuberculosis. We included studies published from database inception to 12 March 2021. We compared ART within four weeks versus ART more than four weeks after TB treatment, and ART within two weeks versus ART between two and eight weeks, and stratified analysis by CD4 count. The main outcome was death; secondary outcomes included IRIS and AIDS-defining events. We pooled effect estimates using random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: We screened 2468 abstracts, and identified nine trials. Among people with all CD4 counts, there was no difference in mortality by earlier ART (≤4 week) versus later ART (>4 week) (risk difference [RD] 0%, 95% confidence interval [CI] -2% to +1%). Among people with CD4 count ≤50 cells/mm3 , earlier ART (≤4 weeks) reduced risk of death (RD -6%, -10% to -1%). Among people with all CD4 counts earlier ART (≤4 weeks) increased the risk of IRIS (RD +6%, 95% CI +2% to +10%) and reduced the incidence of AIDS-defining events (RD -2%, 95% CI -4% to 0%). Results were similar when trials were restricted to the four trials which permitted comparison of ART within two weeks to ART between two and eight weeks. Trials were conducted between 2004 and 2014, before recommendations to treat HIV at any CD4 count or to rapidly start ART in people without TB. No trials included children or pregnant women. No trials included integrase inhibitors in ART regimens. DISCUSSION: Earlier ART did not alter risk of death overall among people living with HIV who had TB disease. For logistical and patient preference reasons, earlier ART initiation for everyone with TB and HIV may be preferred to later ART.

Reduced antibody cross-reactivity following infection with B.1.1.7 than with parental SARS-CoV-2 strains.

Background: The degree of heterotypic immunity induced by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) strains is a major determinant of the spread of emerging variants and the success of vaccination campaigns, but remains incompletely understood. Methods: We examined the immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 (Alpha) that arose in the United Kingdom and spread globally. We determined titres of spike glycoprotein-binding antibodies and authentic virus neutralising antibodies induced by B.1.1.7 infection to infer homotypic and heterotypic immunity. Results: Antibodies elicited by B.1.1.7 infection exhibited significantly reduced recognition and neutralisation of parental strains or of the South Africa variant B.1.351 (Beta) than of the infecting variant. The drop in cross-reactivity was significantly more pronounced following B.1.1.7 than parental strain infection. Conclusions: The results indicate that heterotypic immunity induced by SARS-CoV-2 variants is asymmetric. Funding: This work was supported by the Francis Crick Institute and the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics of Complex Technical Systems, Magdeburg.

Nosocomial Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Retrospective Study of 66 Hospital-acquired Cases in a London Teaching Hospital.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can cause deadly healthcare-associated outbreaks. In a major London teaching hospital, 66 of 435 (15%) COVID-19 inpatient cases between 2 March and 12 April 2020 were definitely or probably hospital-acquired, through varied transmission routes. The case fatality was 36%. Nosocomial infection rates fell following comprehensive infection prevention and control measures.

Clinical outcomes of COVID-19 in long-term care facilities for people with epilepsy.

In this cohort study, we aim to compare outcomes from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in people with severe epilepsy and other co-morbidities living in long-term care facilities which all implemented early preventative measures, but different levels of surveillance. During 25-week observation period (16 March-6 September 2020), we included 404 residents (118 children), and 1643 caregivers. We compare strategies for infection prevention, control, and containment, and related outcomes, across four UK long-term care facilities. Strategies included early on-site enhancement of preventative and infection control measures, early identification and isolation of symptomatic cases, contact tracing, mass surveillance of asymptomatic cases and contacts. We measured infection rate among vulnerable people living in the facilities and their caregivers, with asymptomatic and symptomatic cases, including fatality rate. We report 38 individuals (17 residents) who tested severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-positive, with outbreaks amongst residents in two facilities. At Chalfont Centre for Epilepsy (CCE), 10/98 residents tested positive: two symptomatic (one died), eight asymptomatic on weekly enhanced surveillance; 2/275 caregivers tested positive: one symptomatic, one asymptomatic. At St Elizabeth's (STE), 7/146 residents tested positive: four symptomatic (one died), one positive during hospital admission for symptoms unrelated to COVID-19, two asymptomatic on one-off testing of all 146 residents; 106/601 symptomatic caregivers were tested, 13 positive. In addition, during two cycles of systematically testing all asymptomatic carers, four tested positive. At The Meath (TM), 8/80 residents were symptomatic but none tested; 26/250 caregivers were tested, two positive. At Young Epilepsy (YE), 8/80 children were tested, all negative; 22/517 caregivers were tested, one positive. Infection outbreaks in long-term care facilities for vulnerable people with epilepsy can be quickly contained, but only if asymptomatic individuals are identified through enhanced surveillance at resident and caregiver level. We observed a low rate of morbidity and mortality, which confirmed that preventative measures with isolation of suspected and confirmed COVID-19 residents can reduce resident-to-resident and resident-to-caregiver transmission. Children and young adults appear to have lower infection rates. Even in people with epilepsy and multiple co-morbidities, we observed a high percentage of asymptomatic people suggesting that epilepsy-related factors (anti-seizure medications and seizures) do not necessarily lead to poor outcomes.

Preexisting and de novo humoral immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in humans.

Zoonotic introduction of novel coronaviruses may encounter preexisting immunity in humans. Using diverse assays for antibodies recognizing SARS-CoV-2 proteins, we detected preexisting humoral immunity. SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein (S)-reactive antibodies were detectable using a flow cytometry-based method in SARS-CoV-2-uninfected individuals and were particularly prevalent in children and adolescents. They were predominantly of the immunoglobulin G (IgG) class and targeted the S2 subunit. By contrast, SARS-CoV-2 infection induced higher titers of SARS-CoV-2 S-reactive IgG antibodies targeting both the S1 and S2 subunits, and concomitant IgM and IgA antibodies, lasting throughout the observation period. SARS-CoV-2-uninfected donor sera exhibited specific neutralizing activity against SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-2 S pseudotypes. Distinguishing preexisting and de novo immunity will be critical for our understanding of susceptibility to and the natural course of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

A clinical score for identifying active tuberculosis while awaiting microbiological results: Development and validation of a multivariable prediction model in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: In highly resource-limited settings, many clinics lack same-day microbiological testing for active tuberculosis (TB). In these contexts, risk of pretreatment loss to follow-up is high, and a simple, easy-to-use clinical risk score could be useful. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed data from adults tested for TB with Xpert MTB/RIF across 28 primary health clinics in rural South Africa (between July 2016 and January 2018). We used least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to identify characteristics associated with Xpert-confirmed TB and converted coefficients into a simple score. We assessed discrimination using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration using Cox linear logistic regression, and clinical utility using decision curves. We validated the score externally in a population of adults tested for TB across 4 primary health clinics in urban Uganda (between May 2018 and December 2019). Model development was repeated de novo with the Ugandan population to compare clinical scores. The South African and Ugandan cohorts included 701 and 106 individuals who tested positive for TB, respectively, and 686 and 281 randomly selected individuals who tested negative. Compared to the Ugandan cohort, the South African cohort was older (41% versus 19% aged 45 years or older), had similar breakdown of biological sex (48% versus 50% female), and had higher HIV prevalence (45% versus 34%). The final prediction model, scored from 0 to 10, included 6 characteristics: age, sex, HIV (2 points), diabetes, number of classical TB symptoms (cough, fever, weight loss, and night sweats; 1 point each), and >14-day symptom duration. Discrimination was moderate in the derivation (c-statistic = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.81 to 0.82) and validation (c-statistic = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.69 to 0.80) populations. A patient with 10% pretest probability of TB would have a posttest probability of 4% with a score of 3/10 versus 43% with a score of 7/10. The de novo Ugandan model contained similar characteristics and performed equally well. Our study may be subject to spectrum bias as we only included a random sample of people without TB from each cohort. This score is only meant to guide management while awaiting microbiological results, not intended as a community-based triage test (i.e., to identify individuals who should receive further testing). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that a simple clinical risk score reasonably distinguished individuals with and without TB among those submitting sputum for diagnosis. Subject to prospective validation, this score might be useful in settings with constrained diagnostic resources where concern for pretreatment loss to follow-up is high.

Prevalence and mortality of cryptococcal disease in adults with advanced HIV in an urban tertiary hospital in Sierra Leone: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: The global annual estimate for cryptococcal disease-related deaths exceeds 180,000, with three fourth occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) screening in all HIV patients with CD4 count < 100/µl. As there is no previous published study on the burden and impact of cryptococcal disease in Sierra Leone, research is needed to inform public health policies. We aimed to establish the seroprevalence and mortality of cryptococcal disease in adults with advanced HIV attending an urban tertiary hospital in Sierra Leone. METHODS: A prospective cohort study design was used to screen consecutive adult (18 years or older) HIV patients at Connaught Hospital in Freetown, Sierra Leone with CD4 count below 100 cells/mm3 from January to April 2018. Participants received a blood CrAg lateral flow assay (IMMY, Oklahoma, USA). All participants with a positive serum CrAg had lumbar puncture and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) CrAg assay, and those with cryptococcal diseases had fluconazole monotherapy with 8 weeks followed up. Data were entered into Excel and analysed in Stata version 13.0. Proportions, median and interquartile ranges were used to summarise the data. Fisher's exact test was used to compare categorical variables. RESULTS: A total of 170 patients, with median age of 36 (IQR 30-43) and median CD4 count of 45 cells/mm3 (IQR 23-63) were screened. At the time of enrolment, 54% were inpatients, 51% were newly diagnosed with HIV, and 56% were either ART-naïve or newly initiated (≤ 30 days). Eight participants had a positive blood CrAg, giving a prevalence of 4.7% (95% CI: 2.4-9.2%). Of those with a positive CrAg, CSF CrAg was positive in five (62.5%). Five (62.5%) CrAg-positive participants died within the first month, while the remaining three were alive and established on ART at 8 weeks. CONCLUSION: A substantial prevalence of cryptococcal antigenaemia and poor outcome of cryptococcal disease were demonstrated in our study. The high mortality suggests a need for the HIV programme to formulate and implement policies on screening and pre-emptive fluconazole therapy for all adults with advanced HIV in Sierra Leone, and advocate for affordable access to effective antifungal therapies.