Comparación de mortalidad pronosticada y mortalidad observada en pacientes con insuficiencia cardiaca tratados en una unidad clínica especializada / Comparison of predicted and observed mortality in patients with heart failure treated at a specialized unit

INTRODUCCIÓN Y OBJETIVOS: Analizar la supervivencia de los pacientes con insuficiencia cardiaca (IC) tratados en una unidad especializada. MÉTODOS: Estudio prospectivo de una cohorte de pacientes con IC tratados en una unidad especializada entre 2011 y 2017. Se comparó la mortalidad observada a 1 y 3 años con la mortalidad pronosticada por la puntuación de riesgo del Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC). RESULTADOS: Se estudió a 1.280 pacientes, con una mediana de la puntuación MAGGIC de 19 [intervalo intercuartílico, 13-24]. Las tasas de prescripción de bloqueadores beta, inhibidores de la enzima de conversión de la angiotensina, antagonistas del receptor de la angiotensina II, antagonistas del receptor de mineralcorticoides y sacubitrilo-valsartán fueron del 93, el 67, el 22, el 73 y el 16% respectivamente. La puntuación MAGGIC mostró una discriminación adecuada de la mortalidad a 1 año (estadístico c=0,71) y a 3 años (estadístico c=0,76). La mortalidad observada fue significativamente menor que la pronosticada, tanto a 1 año (el 6,2 frente al 10,9%; cociente observada/pronosticada=0,57; p < 0,001) como a 3 años (el 16,7 frente al 27,7%; cociente observada/pronosticada=0,60; p < 0,001). Esta discrepancia se observó en diversos subgrupos, excepto en los pacientes mayores de 70 años (el 29,9 frente al 34,7%; cociente observada/pronosticada=0,86; p = 0,126) y en pacientes con fracción de eyección> 40% (el 19,6 frente al 20,7%; cociente observada/pronosticada=0,95; p = 0,640). CONCLUSIONES: Los pacientes con IC tratados en una unidad especializada presentaron una mortalidad inferior a la pronosticada por la puntuación MAGGIC

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: To analyze survival in heart failure (HF) patients treated at a specialized unit. METHODS: Prospective cohort-based study of HF patients treated at a specialized unit from 2011 to 2017. Observed 1- and 3-year mortality rates were compared with those predicted by the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) risk score. RESULTS: We studied 1280 patients, whose median MAGGIC risk score was 19 [interquartile range, 13-24]. Prescription rates of beta-blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin II receptor blockers, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, and sacubitril-valsartan were 93%, 67%, 22%, 73%, and 16%, respectively. The MAGGIC risk score showed good discrimination for mortality at 1 year (c-statistic=0.71) and 3 years (c-statistic=0.76). Observed mortality was significantly lower than predicted mortality, both at 1 year (6.2% vs 10.9%; observed/predicted ratio=0.57; P<.001) and at 3 years (16.7% vs 27.7%; observed/predicted ratio=0.60; P<.001). This discrepancy was found in several subgroups, except in patients aged> 70 years (29.9% vs 34.7%; observed/predicted ratio=0.86; P=.126) and in patients with ejection fraction> 40% (19.6% vs 20.7%; observed/predicted ratio=0.95; P=.640). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in HF patients treated at a specialized clinic was significantly lower than that predicted by the MAGGIC risk score

Comparison of predicted and observed mortality in patients with heart failure treated at a specialized unit.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: To analyze survival in heart failure (HF) patients treated at a specialized unit. METHODS: Prospective cohort-based study of HF patients treated at a specialized unit from 2011 to 2017. Observed 1- and 3-year mortality rates were compared with those predicted by the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) risk score. RESULTS: We studied 1280 patients, whose median MAGGIC risk score was 19 [interquartile range, 13-24]. Prescription rates of beta-blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin II receptor blockers, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, and sacubitril-valsartan were 93%, 67%, 22%, 73%, and 16%, respectively. The MAGGIC risk score showed good discrimination for mortality at 1 year (c-statistic=0.71) and 3 years (c-statistic=0.76). Observed mortality was significantly lower than predicted mortality, both at 1 year (6.2% vs 10.9%; observed/predicted ratio=0.57; P<.001) and at 3 years (16.7% vs 27.7%; observed/predicted ratio=0.60; P<.001). This discrepancy was found in several subgroups, except in patients aged> 70 years (29.9% vs 34.7%; observed/predicted ratio=0.86; P=.126) and in patients with ejection fraction> 40% (19.6% vs 20.7%; observed/predicted ratio=0.95; P=.640). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in HF patients treated at a specialized clinic was significantly lower than that predicted by the MAGGIC risk score.