Recurrent disease detection after resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma using a recurrence-focused surveillance strategy (RADAR-PANC): protocol of an international randomized controlled trial according to the Trials within Cohorts design.

BACKGROUND: Disease recurrence remains one of the biggest concerns in patients after resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Despite (neo)adjuvant systemic therapy, most patients experience local and/or distant PDAC recurrence within 2 years. High-level evidence regarding the benefits of recurrence-focused surveillance after PDAC resection is missing, and the impact of early detection and treatment of recurrence on survival and quality of life is unknown. In most European countries, recurrence-focused follow-up after surgery for PDAC is currently lacking. Consequently, guidelines regarding postoperative surveillance are based on expert opinion and other low-level evidence. The recent emergence of more potent local and systemic treatment options for PDAC recurrence has increased interest in early diagnosis. To determine whether early detection and treatment of recurrence can lead to improved survival and quality of life, we designed an international randomized trial. METHODS: This randomized controlled trial is nested within an existing prospective cohort in pancreatic cancer centers in the Netherlands (Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Project; PACAP) and the United Kingdom (UK) (Pancreas Cancer: Observations of Practice and survival; PACOPS) according to the "Trials within Cohorts" (TwiCs) design. All PACAP/PACOPS participants with a macroscopically radical resection (R0-R1) of histologically confirmed PDAC, who provided informed consent for TwiCs and participation in quality of life questionnaires, are included. Participants randomized to the intervention arm are offered recurrence-focused surveillance, existing of clinical evaluation, serum cancer antigen (CA) 19-9 testing, and contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) of chest and abdomen every three months during the first 2 years after surgery. Participants in the control arm of the study will undergo non-standardized clinical follow-up, generally consisting of clinical follow-up with imaging and serum tumor marker testing only in case of onset of symptoms, according to local practice in the participating hospital. The primary endpoint is overall survival. Secondary endpoints include quality of life, patterns of recurrence, compliance to and costs of recurrence-focused follow-up, and the impact on recurrence-focused treatment. DISCUSSION: The RADAR-PANC trial will be the first randomized controlled trial to generate high level evidence for the current clinical equipoise regarding the value of recurrence-focused postoperative surveillance with serial tumor marker testing and routine imaging in patients after PDAC resection. The Trials within Cohort design allows us to study the acceptability of recurrence-focused surveillance among cohort participants and increases the generalizability of findings to the general population. While it is strongly encouraged to offer all trial participants treatment at time of recurrence diagnosis, type and timing of treatment will be determined through shared decision-making. This might reduce the potential survival benefits of recurrence-focused surveillance, although insights into the impact on patients' quality of life will be obtained. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT04875325 . Registered on May 6, 2021.

Outcomes of normothermic machine perfusion of liver grafts in repeat liver transplantation (NAPLES initiative).

BACKGROUND: Retransplantation candidates are disadvantaged owing to lack of good-quality liver grafts. Strategies that can facilitate transplantation of suboptimal grafts into retransplant candidates require investigation. The aim was to determine whether late liver retransplantation can be performed safely with suboptimal grafts, following normothermic machine perfusion. METHODS: A prospectively enrolled group of patients who required liver retransplantation received a suboptimal graft preserved via normothermic machine perfusion. This group was compared with both historical and contemporaneous cohorts of patient who received grafts preserved by cold storage. The primary outcome was 6-month graft and patient survival. RESULTS: The normothermic machine perfusion group comprised 26 patients. The historical (cold storage 1) and contemporaneous (cold storage 2) groups comprised 31 and 25 patients respectively. The 6-month graft survival rate did not differ between groups (cold storage 1, 27 of 31, cold storage 2, 22 of 25; normothermic machine perfusion, 22 of 26; P = 0.934). This was despite the normothermic machine perfusion group having significantly more steatotic grafts (8 of 31, 7 of 25, and 14 of 26 respectively; P = 0.006) and grafts previously declined by at least one other transplant centre (5 of 31, 9 of 25, and 21 of 26; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In liver retransplantation, normothermic machine perfusion can safely expand graft options without compromising short-term outcomes.

Liver transplantation is a life-saving procedure for many different diseases. In the UK, one in 10 patients awaiting transplant have had a previous liver transplant. These retransplant operations are complex, and the general belief is that a good-quality donor liver graft is required for best outcomes. However, there is a significant shortage of good-quality organs for liver transplantation, so many patients awaiting retransplantation spend longer on the waiting list. This study investigated whether a new technology, called normothermic machine perfusion, could be used to preserve lower-quality donor livers and have successful outcomes for patients undergoing retransplantation. Traditionally, good-quality livers are preserved in an ice box and the study compared the outcomes of these two different approaches. The aim was to prove that normothermic machine perfusion improves access to transplantation for this group of patients, without compromising outcomes. A group of patients who underwent retransplantation and received a lesser-quality liver preserved with normothermic machine perfusion was compared with two groups of patients who had received a transplant with traditional ice-box preservation. The complications, graft, and patient survival of the former group was compared with those in the latter two groups who underwent liver retransplantation with better-quality liver grafts. The rate of survival and adverse surgical outcomes were comparable between the groups of patients who received a liver preserved via traditional ice-box preservation, and those who received a lesser-quality liver preserved via normothermic machine perfusion. Normothermic machine perfusion can potentially expand the number of suitable donor livers available for retransplant candidates.

Gemcitabine-based adjuvant chemotherapy in subtypes of ampullary adenocarcinoma: international propensity score-matched cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Whether patients who undergo resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma have a survival benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy is currently unknown. The aim of this study was to compare survival between patients with and without adjuvant chemotherapy after resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma in a propensity score-matched analysis. METHODS: An international multicentre cohort study was conducted, including patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy for ampullary adenocarcinoma between 2006 and 2017, in 13 centres in six countries. Propensity scores were used to match patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy with those who did not, in the entire cohort and in two subgroups (pancreatobiliary/mixed and intestinal subtypes). Survival was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Overall, 1163 patients underwent pancreatoduodenectomy for ampullary adenocarcinoma. After excluding 187 patients, median survival in the remaining 976 patients was 67 (95 per cent c.i. 56 to 78) months. A total of 520 patients (53·3 per cent) received adjuvant chemotherapy. In a propensity score-matched cohort (194 patients in each group), survival was better among patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy than in those who did not (median survival not reached versus 60 months respectively; P = 0·051). A survival benefit was seen in patients with the pancreatobiliary/mixed subtype; median survival was not reached in patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy and 32 months in the group without chemotherapy (P = 0·020). Patients with the intestinal subtype did not show any survival benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. CONCLUSION: Patients with resected ampullary adenocarcinoma may benefit from gemcitabine-based adjuvant chemotherapy, but this effect may be reserved for those with the pancreatobiliary and/or mixed subtype.

ANTECEDENTES: Actualmente se desconoce si la quimioterapia adyuvante ofrece un beneficio en la supervivencia de los pacientes que se someten a resección de un adenocarcinoma ampular. El objetivo de este estudio fue comparar la supervivencia mediante la concordancia estimada por emparejamiento por puntaje de propensión, entre pacientes con y sin quimioterapia adyuvante después de la resección de un adenocarcinoma ampular. MÉTODOS: Se realizó un estudio internacional de cohortes multicéntrico, que incluyó a los pacientes que se sometieron a una duodenopancreatectomía por adenocarcinoma ampular (2006-2017) en 13 centros de seis países. Los puntajes de propensión se usaron para emparejar a los pacientes que recibieron quimioterapia adyuvante con los que no; tanto en la cohorte completa como en dos subgrupos (subtipo pancreaticobiliar / mixto e intestinal). La supervivencia se evaluó utilizando el método de Kaplan-Meier y las regresiones de Cox. RESULTADOS: En total, 1.163 pacientes fueron sometidos a una duodenopancreatectomía por adenocarcinoma ampular. Después de excluir a 179 pacientes, la mediana de supervivencia de los 976 pacientes restantes fue de 67 meses (i.c. del 95%, 56-78), de los cuales un total de 520 pacientes (53%) recibieron quimioterapia adyuvante. En una cohorte de emparejamiento por puntaje de propensión (194 versus 194 pacientes), la mediana de supervivencia fue mejor en los pacientes tratados con quimioterapia adyuvante en comparación con aquellos sin quimioterapia adyuvante (no se alcanzó la mediana de supervivencia versus 60 meses, respectivamente; P = 0,051). En el subtipo pancreaticobiliar/mixto se observó un beneficio en la supervivencia; no se alcanzó la mediana de supervivencia en pacientes que recibieron quimioterapia adyuvante versus 32 meses en el grupo sin quimioterapia, P = 0,020. El subtipo intestinal no mostró beneficio en la supervivencia de la quimioterapia adyuvante. CONCLUSIÓN: Los pacientes con adenocarcinoma ampular resecado pueden beneficiarse de la quimioterapia adyuvante basada en gemcitabina, pero este efecto podría reservarse para aquellos pacientes con subtipo de tumor pancreaticobiliar y/o mixto.

Evaluation of the clinical and economic impact of delays to surgery in patients with periampullary cancer.

Background: Early treatment is the only potential cure for periampullary cancer. The pathway to surgery is complex and involves multiple procedures across local and specialist hospitals. The aim of this study was to analyse variability within this pathway, and its impact on cost and outcomes. Methods: Patients undergoing surgery for periampullary cancer (2011-2016) were identified retrospectively and their pathway to surgery was analysed. Patients who had early surgery (shortest quartile, Q1) were compared with those having late surgery (longest quartile, Q4). Results: A total of 483 patients were included in the study, with 121 and 124 patients in Q1 and Q4 respectively. The median time from initial CT to surgery was 21 days for Q1 versus 112 days for Q4 (P < 0·001). Diagnostic delays were common in Q4; these patients required significantly more investigations than those in Q1 (endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS): 74·2 versus 18·2 per cent respectively, P < 0·001; MRI: 33·6 versus 20·6 per cent, P = 0·036). The median time to diagnostic EUS was 13 days in Q1 versus 59 days in Q4 (P < 0·001). Some 42·1 per cent of jaundiced patients in Q1 underwent preoperative biliary drainage, compared with all patients in Q4. There were significantly more unplanned admissions and associated longer duration of hospital stay per patient and costs in Q4 than in Q1 (median: 8 versus 3 days respectively; €5652 versus €2088; both P < 0·001). There was a higher likelihood of potentially curative surgery in Q1 (82·6 per cent versus 66·9 per cent in Q4; P = 0·005). Conclusion: There is wide variation across the entire pathway, suggesting that multiple strategies are required to enable early surgery. Defining an effective pathway by anticipating the need for investigations and avoiding biliary drainage reduces unplanned admissions and costs and increases resection rates.

Propensity-matched analysis of the influence of perioperative statin therapy on outcomes after liver resection.

Background: Perioperative use of statins is reported to improve postoperative outcomes after cardiac and non-cardiovascular surgery. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of statins on postoperative outcomes including complications of grade IIIa and above, posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF), and 90-day mortality rates after liver resection. Methods: Patients who underwent hepatectomy between 2013 and 2017 were reviewed to identify statin users and non-users (controls). Propensity matching was conducted for age, BMI, type of surgery and preoperative co-morbidities to compare subgroups. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed for the following outcomes: 90-day mortality, significant postoperative complications and PHLF. Results: Of 890 patients who had liver resection during the study period, 162 (18·2 per cent) were taking perioperative statins. Propensity analysis selected two matched groups, each comprising 154 patients. Overall, 81 patients (9·1 per cent) developed complications of grade IIIa or above, and the 90-day mortality rate was 3·4 per cent (30 patients), with no statistically significant difference when the groups were compared before and after matching. The rate of PHLF was significantly lower in patients on perioperative statins than in those not taking statins (10·5 versus 17·3 per cent respectively; P = 0·033); similar results were found after propensity matching (10·4 versus 20·8 per cent respectively; P = 0·026). Conclusion: The rate of PHLF was significantly lower in patients taking perioperative statins, but there was no statistically significant difference in severe complications and mortality rates.

Enzyme replacement improves survival among patients with pancreatic cancer: Results of a population based study.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic exocrine insufficiency (PEI) and malnutrition are prevalent among patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy (PERT) can correct PEI but its use among patients with pancreatic cancer is unclear as are effects upon survival. This population-based study sought to address these issues METHODS: Subjects with pancreatic adenocarcinoma were identified from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Propensity score matching generated matched pairs of subjects who did and did not receive PERT. Progression to all-cause mortality was compared using parametric survival models that included a range of relevant co-variables RESULTS: PERT use among the whole cohort (987/4554) was 21.7%. Some 1614 subjects generated 807 matched pairs. This resulted in a total, censored follow-up period of 1643 years. There were 1403 deaths in total, representing unadjusted mortality rates of 748 and 994 deaths per 1000 person-years for PERT-treated cases and their matched non-PERT-treated controls, respectively. With reference to the observed survival in pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients, adjusted median survival time was 262% greater in PERT-treated cases (survival time ratio (STR) = 2.62, 95% CI 2.27-3.02) when compared with matched, non-PERT-treated controls. Survival remained significantly greater among subjects receiving PERT regardless of the studied subgroup with respect to use of surgery or chemotherapy CONCLUSIONS: This population based study observes that the majority of patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma do not receive PERT. PERT is associated with increased survival among patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma suggesting a lack of clinical awareness and potential benefit of addressing malnutrition among these patients.

Development and multicentre validation of a prognostic model to predict resectability of pancreatic head malignancy.

BACKGROUND: At the time of planned pancreatoduodenectomy patients frequently undergo exploratory laparotomy without resection, leading to delayed systemic therapy. This study aimed to develop and validate a prognostic model for the preoperative prediction of resectability of pancreatic head tumours. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of patients undergoing attempted resection for confirmed malignant tumours of the pancreatic head in a university hospital in Hannover, Germany. The prognostic value of patient and tumour characteristics was investigated in a multivariable logistic regression model. External validation was performed using data from two other centres. RESULTS: Some 109 patients were included in the development cohort, with 51 and 175 patients in the two validation cohorts. Eighty patients (73·4 per cent) in the development cohort underwent resection, and 37 (73 per cent) and 141 (80·6 per cent) in the validation cohorts. The main reasons for performing no resection in the development cohort were: local invasion of vasculature or arterial abutment (15 patients, 52 per cent), and liver (12, 41 per cent), peritoneal (8, 28 per cent) and aortocaval lymph node (6, 21 per cent) metastases. The final model contained the following variables: time to surgery (odds ratio (OR) 0·99, 95 per cent c.i. 0·98 to 0·99), carbohydrate antigen 19-9 concentration (OR 0·99, 0·99 to 0·99), jaundice (OR 4·45, 1·21 to 16·36) and back pain (OR 0·02, 0·00 to 0·22), with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUROC) of 0·918 in the development cohort. AUROC values were 0·813 and 0·761 in the validation cohorts. The positive predictive value of the final model for prediction of resectability was 98·0 per cent in the development cohort, and 91·7 and 94·7 per cent in the two external validation cohorts. [Corrections added on 18 July 2018, after first online publication: The figures for OR of the variables time to surgery and CA19-9 in the abstract and in Table 3 and Table 4 were amended from 1·00 to 0·99]. CONCLUSION: For preoperative prediction of the likelihood of resectability of pancreatic head tumours, this validated model is a valuable addition to CT findings.

Ninety day mortality following pancreatoduodenectomy in England: has the optimum centre volume been identified?

BACKGROUND: Mortality following pancreatoduodenectomy is related to centre volume although the optimal volume is not defined. METHODS: Patients undergoing PD between 2001 and 2016 were identified from UK national databases. The effects of patient variables, centre volume and time period upon 90 day mortality were studied. RESULTS: 90 day mortality (970/14,935, 6.5%) was related to advanced age, comorbidity, diagnosis, ethnicity, deprivation, centre volume and time period. Mortality rates fell markedly from 10.0% in 2001-4 to 4.1% in 2013-16. There was no difference in 90 day mortality between high (36 -60 PD per year) and very high volume (>60) centres. However, patients operated upon at very high volume centres were more elderly (66, 58 -73 vs 65, 56 -72; median, IQR; p = 0.006), deprived (38.7 vs 34.6%; p < 0.001) and co morbid (48.9 vs 46.1%; p = 0.027). CONCLUSION: Although a plateau in the centre volume and mortality relationship appears to have been demonstrated those patients treated at the highest volume centres were at higher risk of mortality. This data suggests therefore that to further understand outcomes from specialist centres characteristics of the patient population should be defined, not just centre volume.

Examination of inequivalent wetting on the crystal habit surfaces of RS-ibuprofen using grid-based molecular modelling.

Synthonic engineering tools, including grid-based searching molecular modelling, are applied to investigate the wetting interactions of the solute and four crystallisation solvents (ethanol, ethyl acetate, acetonitrile and toluene) with the {100}, {001} and {011} forms of RS-ibuprofen. The grid-based methods, in particular the construction of a crystal slab parallel to a given plane in a coordinate system with one axis perpendicular to the surface, are defined in detail. The interaction strengths and nature (dispersive, hydrogen bonding (H-bonding) or coulombic forces) are related to the crystal growth rates and morphologies. The solute is found to interact strongest with the capping {011}, then the side {001} and weakest with the top {100} habit surfaces. The solute interactions with the {100} and {001} surfaces are found to be almost solely dominated by dispersive force contributions, whilst the same with the {011} surfaces are found to have a greater contribution from H-bonding and coulombic forces. The increased surface rugosity, at the molecular level of the {011} surfaces, results in a favourable docking site in a surface 'valley', not present in the {100} and {001} surfaces. The H-bonding solvents ethanol, acetonitrile and ethyl acetate are found to strongly interact with the {011} surfaces and weakly with the {001} surfaces, with the {011} interactions having a much greater contribution from H-bonding and coulombic forces. The interaction energies of the apolar and aprotic solvent toluene, with the {011} and {001} surfaces, are found to be very close. Toluene is found having slightly stronger interactions with the {001} than the {011} surfaces, which are all dominated by dispersive interactions. The ratio of the average energy of the top 100 solvent interactions with the {001} surface divided by the average energy of the top 100 interactions with the {011} surface is compared to the ratio of the experimentally measured growth rates of the same forms. In general, the interaction energy ratio is found to have an inverse ratio with the growth rates, implying that the solvents which are calculated to interact strongly with a particular surface are impeding the growth of that surface and reducing the growth rate, in turn impacting upon the final morphology of the material.

Role of palliative resection of the primary tumour in advanced pancreatic and small intestinal neuroendocrine tumours: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to evaluate the impact on overall survival following palliative surgery to remove the primary lesion in unresectable metastatic small intestinal (SI-NET) and pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours (P-NET). METHODS: A systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis was performed. MEDLINE and Embase databases were searched to identify articles comparing patients undergoing palliative primary tumour resection without metastatectomy vs. no resection. Relevant articles were identified in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. The primary outcome was overall survival. Included studies were evaluated for heterogeneity and publication bias. RESULTS: 13 studies met the inclusion criteria, of which 6 presented data suitable for meta-analysis. No randomised controlled trials were identified. Analysis of pooled multivariate hazard ratios demonstrated significantly longer overall survival in patients undergoing resection of both P-NETs (HR 0.43; 95% CI: 0.34-0.57, p < 0.001) and SI-NETs (HR 0.47; 95% CI: 0.35-0.55, p = 0.007). The increase in median survival in patients treated surgically relative to non-surgically ranged from 14 to 46 months in P-NET, and 22-112 months in SI-NET. The number needed to treat in order that one additional patient was alive at five years, ranged from 3.0 to 4.2, and 1.7 to 7.7 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Meta-analysis demonstrates that palliative resection of primary SI-NETs and P-NETs in the setting of unresectable metastatic disease can increase survival. Although these results should be interpreted with caution due to potential selection and publication bias, the data supports consideration of surgery, particularly in patients with low tumour burdens and good functional status.

Parenting, the other oldest profession in the world - a cross-sectional study of parenting and child outcomes in South Africa and Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Parenting quality is important in child development. In the presence of HIV poverty and life stress, parenting may be challenged and child development affected. METHODS: This study examines cross-sectional associations of situational factors such as poverty, mental health, HIV status, living with a biological parent, and stigma with good parenting and child outcomes (n=989; age=4-13 years) within the Child Community Care study (South Africa and Malawi). A parenting measure was created from 10 variables comprising 6 child and 4 parent ratings. These were highly correlated. Total parenting score was generated on a 10 point continuous scale, with a good parenting cut off then defined as >=8 out of a possible 10. RESULTS: Five factors were associated with good parenting. Positively associated with good parenting were being the biological parent of the child, parental mental health and dwelling in households with multiple adults. Poverty and stigma were negatively associated with good parenting. Using multiple mediation analysis, a positive direct effect of good parenting was found on child self-esteem, child behaviour and educational risks with a partial mediation via child depression and trauma. CONCLUSIONS: These data highlight possible intervention points. Influences on parenting could be seen through being the biological parent, parental mental health, poverty and stigma. In these challenging environments, health, nutrition, mental health, education, and treatment to keep parents alive are all clearly identified as potential pathways to ensure child well-being.

The influence of solution environment on the nucleation kinetics and crystallisability of para-aminobenzoic acid.

The influence of solvent type on the solution thermodynamics, nucleation-kinetics and crystal growth of alpha para-aminobenzoic acid (PABA) crystallising from supersaturated ethanol, acetonitrile and water solutions, is examined using poly-thermal analysis of the metastable zone width. Application of a recently proposed model for analysis of crystallisation kinetics (J. Cryst. Growth, 2010, 312, 698-704) indicates a solvent and concentration dependence of the nucleation mechanism and key nucleation parameters for the alpha form of PABA. The mechanism of nucleation is found to change from instantaneous to progressive with decreasing concentration and also when changing the solvent from ethanol to acetonitrile to water. The dependence of the nucleation mechanism is correlated to the kinetic component of the nucleation rate through calculated values of instantaneously nucleated crystallites, which increase from 1.40 × 109 m-3 in ethanol to 1.08 × 1010 m-3 in acetonitrile to 2.58 × 1010 m-3 in water. This in combination with low calculated number concentrations of interfacial tension between 1.13 and 2.71 mJ m-2, supports the conclusion that the kinetic component of the nucleation rate is more limiting when crystallising PABA from ethanol solutions in comparison to water solutions. This finding is further supported by molecular dynamics simulations of the solvation free energy of PABA, which is found to be greatest in water, -42.4 kJ mol-1 and lowest in ethanol, -58.5 kJ mol-1.

Comparison of preoperative CT-based imaging parameters to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula.

AIM: To review all reported methods of preoperative computed tomography (CT) in one patient cohort and to identify which were the strongest to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after pancreatoduodenectomy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Consecutive patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy were included if they had unenhanced CT images for review. Eighteen variables and two scores were tested. Receiver operator characteristics (ROC) were explored. RESULTS: POPF affected 26 of 107 patients (24.3%). Nine variables were significantly related to POPF with pancreatic duct width having the largest area under the ROC curve (AUROC; 0.808, p<0.001). An obese body habitus was associated with POPF with six of nine related variables using data from CT images associated with POPF; of these intra-abdominal wall thickness yielded the largest AUROC (0.713, p=0.001). This corresponded to the finding that body mass index (BMI) was related to POPF (AUROC 0.705, p=0.002). The largest AUROC of all was associated with one of the predictive scores (0.828, p<0.001). Substituting BMI for intra-abdominal wall thickness in this score yielded a non-significant increase to predict POPF (AUROC 0.840, p=0.676). None of the assessments of organ density (in Hounsfield Units) were associated with POPF. CONCLUSION: Data from preoperative CT imaging provides valuable information regarding a patient's risk of POPF. Obesity as assessed by CT images strongly relates to POPF, but the largest single risk factor for POPF is a narrow pancreatic duct.

Do not forget the boys - gender differences in children living in high HIV-affected communities in South Africa and Malawi in a longitudinal, community-based study.

Gender is an important factor in child development. Especially in sub-Saharan Africa, girls have often been shown to be less likely to access education compared to boys. The consequence of this has been that that programmes addressing child development are often aimed at girls in order to redress gender imbalances. This study examines the effect of gender on the development of children attending community-based organisations in high HIV-affected areas, and explores whether community-based organisation attendance was associated with any changes in gender differences over time. Baseline data from 989 children and 12-15 month follow from 854 (86% response rate) were used to examine gender differences in children from Malawi and South Africa. At baseline, where there were differences by gender, these tended to disadvantage boys. It was found that boys were significantly more often found to be subjected to violence. Boys showed worse performance at school and more behavioural problems than girls. These gender differences persisted from baseline to follow-up. At follow-up, boys self-reported significantly worse average quality of life than girls. Only harsh discipline differed by gender in progression over time: boys experienced a stronger reduction in harsh physical discipline than girls from baseline to follow-up. Since harsh discipline was associated with boys' worse educational outcomes and behavioural problems, our data cautiously suggests that gender differences could be reduced over time. In conclusion, our data suggests that, perhaps due to the narrow equity approach focusing on provision for girls, boys may be overlooked. As a result, there are some specific experiences where boys are generally worse off. These differences have distinct ramifications for the educational and emotional development of boys. A broader equity approach to child development might be warranted to ensure that the needs of both girls and boys are considered, and that boys are not overlooked.

Performance of the revised Atlanta and determinant-based classifications for severity in acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Severity classification systems aim to stratify patients with acute pancreatitis reliably into coherent risk groups. Recently, the Atlanta 1992 classification has been revised (Atlanta 2012) and a novel determinant-based classification (DBC) system developed. This study assessed the ability of the three systems to stratify disease severity among patients with acute pancreatitis. METHODS: This was an observational cohort study of patients with acute pancreatitis identified from an institutional database. Cohort characteristics, investigations, interventions and outcomes were identified. Systems were compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and Spearman's correlation coefficients. RESULTS: The in-hospital mortality rate was 6·6 per cent (15 of 228 patients). All of the outcomes considered correlated significantly with the three systems, with the exception of the need for surgery in Atlanta 1992. Atlanta 2012 and the DBC had higher area under the curve (AUC) values than Atlanta 1992 for all outcomes. The revised Atlanta and DBC systems both performed similarly with regard to ICU admission (AUC 0·927 and 0·917 respectively; both P < 0·001), need for percutaneous drainage (AUC 0·879 and 0·891; both P < 0·001), need for surgery (AUC 0·827 and 0·845; P = 0·006 and P = 0·004 respectively) and in-hospital mortality (0·955 and 0·931; both P < 0·001). However, the critical category in the DBC system identified patients with the most severe disease; seven of eight patients in this group died in hospital, compared with 15 of 34 with severe pancreatitis according to Atlanta 2012. CONCLUSION: The Atlanta 2012 and DBC perform equally well for classification of disease severity in acute pancreatitis. The addition of a critical category in the DBC identifies patients with the most severe disease.

Exposure to violence predicts poor educational outcomes in young children in South Africa and Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Violence during childhood may affect short and long-term educational factors. There is scant literature on younger children from resource poor settings. METHODS: This study assessed child violence experiences (harsh punishment and exposure to domestic or community violence) and school enrolment, progress and attendance in children attending community-based organisations in South Africa and Malawi (n=989) at baseline and at 15 months' follow-up, examining differential experience of HIV positive, HIV affected and HIV unaffected children. RESULTS: Violence exposure was high: 45.4% experienced some form of psychological violence, 47.8% physical violence, 46.7% domestic violence and 41.8% community violence. Primary school enrolment was 96%. Violence was not associated with school enrolment at baseline but, controlling for baseline, children exposed to psychological violence for discipline were more than ten times less likely to be enrolled at follow-up (OR 0.09; 95% CI 0.01 to 0.57). Harsh discipline was associated with poor school progress. For children HIV positive a detrimental effect of harsh physical discipline was found on school performance (OR 0.10; 95% CI 0.02 to 0.61). CONCLUSION: Violence experiences were associated with a number of educational outcomes, which may have long-term consequences. Community-based organisations may be well placed to address such violence, with a particular emphasis on the challenges faced by children who are HIV positive.

Towards an understanding of the nucleation of alpha-para amino benzoic acid from ethanolic solutions: a multi-scale approach.

The molecular assembly and subsequent nucleation of para-amino benzoic acid (PABA) from ethanolic solutions is probed using a multi-scale and multi-technique approach. This is applied by examining and interrelating information regarding the molecular, solution-state, cluster, solid-state and surface structures to understand why the alpha form of PABA is crystallised in preference to its low temperature beta form. Calculations suggest that conformational changes within the solute molecule play little or no role in directing the nucleation of either the alpha or beta crystal forms. Combined ab initio and molecular dynamics calculations of the stability of small clusters in solution suggests that the hydrogen-bonded carboxylic acid dimers, present in the alpha structure, are the most stable in solution and play a major role in the self-assembly and polymorphic expression of the alpha form in ethanol in preference to the beta form. These calculations are in good agreement with X-ray small-angle scattering analysis which reveals the presence of PABA clusters in ethanol which are consistent with the size and shape of a carboxylic acid dimer. SAXS studies also reveal the presence of larger cluster structures in a size range 10-40 nm which appear to grow, perhaps reflecting a change in the balance between monomers and dimers within the solution during the nucleation process. The results of crystallisation-kinetics experiments indicate an instantaneous nucleation mechanism where the number of instantaneously nucleated crystallites is calculated to be 1360-660 nuclei per ml and the subsequent growth is found to be only rate limited by diffusion of the growth unit to the crystallite surface. A linear dependence of growth rate with respect to supersaturation is observed for the (0 1 -1) capping face, which is associated with strong π-π stacking interactions. This is consistent with a solid-on-solid mechanism associated with surface roughened growth and concomitant poor lattice-perfection. Conversely, the side (1 0 -1) surface has a growth mechanism consistent with a 2D nucleation birth and spread mechanism. Hence, these mechanisms result in very fast growth along the b-axis and the needle-like morphology that is observed for alpha-PABA.