A data-driven model for COVID-19 pandemic - Evolution of the attack rate and prognosis for Brazil.

We introduce a compartmental model SEIAHRV (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Asymptomatic, Hospitalized, Recovered, Vaccinated) with age structure for the spread of the SARAS-CoV virus. In order to model current different vaccines we use compartments for individuals vaccinated with one and two doses without vaccine failure and a compartment for vaccinated individual with vaccine failure. The model allows to consider any number of different vaccines with different efficacies and delays between doses. Contacts among age groups are modeled by a contact matrix and the contagion matrix is obtained from a probability of contagion p c per contact. The model uses known epidemiological parameters and the time dependent probability p c is obtained by fitting the model output to the series of deaths in each locality, and reflects non-pharmaceutical interventions. As a benchmark the output of the model is compared to two good quality serological surveys, and applied to study the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the main Brazilian cities with a total population of more than one million. We also discuss with some detail the case of the city of Manaus which raised special attention due to a previous report of We also estimate the attack rate, the total proportion of cases (symptomatic and asymptomatic) with respect to the total population, for all Brazilian states since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that the model present here is relevant to assessing present policies not only in Brazil but also in any place where good serological surveys are not available.

Scaling of the dynamics of a homogeneous one-dimensional anisotropic classical Heisenberg model with long-range interactions.

The dynamics of quasistationary states of long-range interacting systems with N particles can be described by kinetic equations such as the Balescu-Lenard and Landau equations. In the case of one-dimensional homogeneous systems, two-body contributions vanish as two-body collisions in one dimension only exchange momentum and thus cannot change the one-particle distribution. Using a Kac factor in the interparticle potential implies a scaling of the dynamics proportional to N(δ) with δ=1 except for one-dimensional homogeneous systems. For the latter different values for δ were reported for a few models. Recently it was shown by Rocha Filho and collaborators [Phys. Rev. E 90, 032133 (2014)] for the Hamiltonian mean-field model that δ=2 provided that N is sufficiently large, while small N effects lead to δ≈1.7. More recently, Gupta and Mukamel [J. Stat. Mech. (2011) P03015] introduced a classical spin model with an anisotropic interaction with a scaling in the dynamics proportional to N(1.7) for a homogeneous state. We show here that this model reduces to a one-dimensional Hamiltonian system and that the scaling of the dynamics approaches N(2) with increasing N. We also explain from theoretical consideration why usual kinetic theory fails for small N values, which ultimately is the origin of noninteger exponents in the scaling.

Scaling of the dynamics of homogeneous states of one-dimensional long-range interacting systems.

Quasistationary states of long-range interacting systems have been studied at length over the last 15 years. It is known that the collisional terms of the Balescu-Lenard and Landau equations vanish for one-dimensional systems in homogeneous states, thus requiring a new kinetic equation with a proper dependence on the number of particles. Here we show that the scalings discussed in the literature are mainly due either to small size effects or the use of unsuitable variables to describe the dynamics. The scaling obtained from both simulations and theoretical considerations is proportional to the square of the number of particles, and a general form for the kinetic equation valid for the homogeneous regime is obtained. Numerical evidence is given for the Hamiltonian mean field and ring models, and a kinetic equation valid for the homogeneous state is obtained for the former system.

Dynamics and physical interpretation of quasistationary states in systems with long-range interactions.

The time evolution of the one-particle distribution function of an N-particle classical Hamiltonian system with long-range interactions satisfies the Vlasov equation in the limit of infinite N. In this paper we present a new derivation of this result using a different approach allowing a discussion of the role of interparticle correlations on the system dynamics. Otherwise for finite N collisional corrections must be introduced. This has allowed a quite comprehensive study of the quasistationary states (QSSs) though many aspects of the physical interpretations of these states still remain unclear. In this paper a proper definition of time scale for long time evolution is discussed, and several numerical results are presented for different values of N. Previous reports indicate that the lifetimes of the QSS scale as N1.7 or even the system properties scale with exp(N). However, preliminary results presented here indicates that time scale goes as N2 for a different type of initial condition. We also discuss how the form of the interparticle potential determines the convergence of the N-particle dynamics to the Vlasov equation. The results are obtained in the context of the following models: the Hamiltonian mean field, the Self-gravitating ring model, and one- and two-dimensional systems of gravitating particles. We have also provided information of the validity of the Vlasov equation for finite N.

Nonequilibrium phase transitions and violent relaxation in the Hamiltonian mean-field model.

We discuss the nature of nonequilibrium phase transitions in the Hamiltonian mean-field model using detailed numerical simulations of the Vlasov equation and molecular dynamics. Starting from fixed magnetization water bag initial distributions and varying the energy, the states obtained after a violent relaxation undergo a phase transition from magnetized to nonmagnetized states when going from lower to higher energies. The phase transitions are either first order or are composed of a cascade of phase reentrances. This result is at variance with most previous results in the literature mainly based on the Lynden-Bell theory of violent relaxation. The latter is a rough approximation and, consequently, is not suited for an accurate description of nonequilibrium phase transition in long-range interacting systems.

Phase transitions in simplified models with long-range interactions.

We study the origin of phase transitions in several simplified models with long-range interactions. For the self-gravitating ring model, we are unable to observe a possible phase transition predicted by Nardini and Casetti [Phys. Rev. E 80, 060103R (2009).] from an energy landscape analysis. Instead we observe a sharp, although without any nonanalyticity, change from a core-halo to a core-only configuration in the spatial distribution functions for low energies. By introducing a different class of solvable simplified models without any critical points in the potential energy we show that a behavior similar to the thermodynamics of the ring model is obtained, with a first-order phase transition from an almost homogeneous high-energy phase to a clustered phase and the same core-halo to core configuration transition at lower energies. We discuss the origin of these features for the simplified models and show that the first-order phase transition comes from the maximization of the entropy of the system as a function of energy and an order parameter, as previously discussed by Hahn and Kastner [Phys. Rev. E 72, 056134 (2005); Eur. Phys. J. B 50, 311 (2006)], which seems to be the main mechanism causing phase transitions in long-range interacting systems.