Numerical response of a mammalian specialist predator to multiple prey dynamics in Mediterranean farmlands.

The study of rodent population cycles has greatly contributed, both theoretically and empirically, to our understanding of the circumstances under which predator-prey interactions destabilize populations. According to the specialist predator hypothesis, reciprocal interactions between voles and small predators that specialize on voles, such as weasels, can cause multiannual cycles. A fundamental feature of classical weasel-vole models is a long time-lag in the numerical response of the predator to variations in prey abundance: weasel abundance increases with that of voles and peaks approximately 1 yr later. We investigated the numerical response of the common weasel (Mustela nivalis) to fluctuating abundances of common voles (Microtus arvalis) in recently colonized agrosteppes of Castilla-y-Léon, northwestern Spain, at the southern limit of the species' range. Populations of both weasels and voles exhibited multiannual cycles with a 3-yr period. Weasels responded quickly and numerically to changes in common-vole abundance, with a time lag between prey and weasel abundance that did not exceed 4 months and occurred during the breeding season, reflecting the quick conversion of prey into predator offspring and/or immigration to sites with high vole populations. We found no evidence of a sustained, high weasel abundance following vole abundance peaks. Weasel population growth rates showed spatial synchrony across study sites approximately 60 km apart. Weasel dynamics were more synchronized with that of common voles than with other prey species (mice or shrews). However, asynchrony within, as well as among sites, in the abundance of voles and alternative prey suggests that weasel mobility could allow them to avoid starvation during low-vole phases, precluding the emergence of prolonged time lag in the numerical response to voles. Our observations are inconsistent with the specialist predator hypothesis as currently formulated, and suggest that weasels might follow rather than cause the vole cycles in northwestern Spain. The reliance of a specialized predator on a functional group of prey such as small rodents does not necessarily lead to a long delay in the numerical response by the predator, depending on the spatial and interspecific synchrony in prey dynamics.

Spatial capture-recapture design and modelling for the study of small mammals.

Spatial capture-recapture modelling (SCR) is a powerful analytical tool to estimate density and derive information on space use and behaviour of elusive animals. Yet, SCR has been seldom applied to the study of ecologically keystone small mammals. Here we highlight its potential and requirements with a case study on common voles (Microtus arvalis). First, we address mortality associated with live-trapping, which can be high in small mammals, and must be kept minimal. We designed and tested a nest box coupled with a classic Sherman trap and show that it allows a 5-fold reduction of mortality in traps. Second, we address the need to adjust the trapping grid to the individual home range to maximize spatial recaptures. In May-June 2016, we captured and tagged with transponders 227 voles in a 1.2-ha area during two monthly sessions. Using a Bayesian SCR with a multinomial approach, we estimated: (1) the baseline detection rate and investigated variation according to sex, time or behaviour (aversion/attraction after a previous capture); (2) the parameter sigma that describes how detection probability declines as a function of the distance to an individual´s activity centre, and investigated variation according to sex; and (3) density and population sex-ratio. We show that reducing the maximum distance between traps from 12 to 9.6m doubled spatial recaptures and improved model predictions. Baseline detection rate increased over time (after overcoming a likely aversion to entering new odourless traps) and was greater for females than males in June. The sigma parameter of males was twice that of females, indicating larger home ranges. Density estimates were of 142.92±38.50 and 168.25±15.79 voles/ha in May and June, respectively, with 2-3 times more females than males. We highlight the potential and broad applicability that SCR offers and provide specific recommendations for using it to study small mammals like voles.