Implementing online group model building to unravel complex geriatric problems, a methodological description.

BACKGROUND: Group model building (GMB), is a qualitative focus group like study design from the field of system dynamics, that leads a group of topic experts (often key stakeholders of a problem), through a set of scripted activities to create a conceptual model of their shared view on this problems' key contributing factors and their interactions. By offering a specific step wise approach to the complexity of a problem, GMB has provided better understanding and overview of complex problems across different scientific domains, in addition to traditional research methods. As the development of geriatric syndromes and organization of geriatric care are often complex issues that are difficult to research, understand and resolve, GMB might be a useful methodology to better address these issues. This study aimed to describe the methodology of online GMB using a geriatric case study. METHODS: Four online GMB sessions were designed by two clinician researchers. A GMB methodology expert was consulted for optimal design. Scriptapedia scripts formed the core of the sessions. These scripts were adapted to the online format. Experts were recruited purposefully and included seven local health care professionals, one patient representative and one healthcare insurance data analyst. The outcome was a conceptual model of older adults' emergency department visits, which was discussed in a separate article. RESULTS: During implementation of these four sessions, the sessions were adjusted and two extra (non-scripted) sessions were added because defining unambiguous contributing factors to the geriatric case was challenging for the experts. Paraphrasing, categorizing, iterative plenary reflection, and reserving extra time were used to help experts overcome this challenge. All sessions were held in April and May 2021. CONCLUSION: This study shows that GMB can help unravel complex problems in geriatrics, both pathophysiological as organizational, by creating step wise overview of their key contributing factors and interactions. Furthermore, it shows that GMB can be used by clinicians, researchers and health policy makers to better understand complex geriatric problems. Moreover, this paper can help to overcome specific implementational challenges in the geriatric field.

What Do We Know about Social and Non-Social Factors Influencing the Pathway from Cognitive Health to Dementia? A Systematic Review of Reviews.

The heterogeneous and multi-factorial nature of dementia requires the consideration of all health aspects when predicting the risk of its development and planning strategies for its prevention. This systematic review of reviews provides a comprehensive synthesis of those factors associated with cognition in the context of dementia, identifying the role of social aspects and evidencing knowledge gaps in this area of research. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses from 2009-2021 were searched for within Medline, PsycINFO, CINAHL Complete, Cochrane, and Epistemonikos. Reviewers independently screened, reviewed, and assessed the records, following the PRISMA-2020 guidelines. From 314 included studies, 624 cognitive-related factors were identified, most of them risk factors (61.2%), mainly belonging to the group of 'somatic comorbidities' (cardiovascular disease and diabetes) and 'genetic predispositions'. The protective factors (20%) were mainly related to lifestyle, pointing to the Mediterranean diet, regular physical activity, and cognitively stimulating activities. Social factors constituted 9.6% of all identified factors. Research on biological and medical factors dominates the reviewed literature. Greater social support and frequent contact may confer some protection against cognitive decline and dementia by delaying its onset or reducing the overall risk; however, overall, our findings are inconsistent. Further research is needed in the fields of lifestyle, psychology, social health, and the protective factors against cognitive decline and dementia.

Mapping the complexity of dementia: factors influencing cognitive function at the onset of dementia.

BACKGROUND: Dementia is a multi-factorial condition rather than a natural and inevitable consequence of ageing. Some factors related to dementia have been studied much more extensively than others. To gain an overview of known or suspected influential factors is a prerequisite to design studies that aim to identify causal relationships and interactions between factors. This article aims to develop a visual model that a) identifies factors related to cognitive decline that signal the onset of dementia, b) structures them by different domains and c) reflects on and visualizes the possible causal links and interactions between these factors based on expert input using a causal loop diagram. METHOD: We used a mixed-method, step-wise approach: 1. A systematic literature review on factors related to cognitive decline; 2. A group model building (GMB) workshop with experts from different disciplines; 3. Structured discussions within the group of researchers. The results were continuously synthesized and graphically transformed into a causal loop diagram. RESULTS: The causal loop diagram comprises 73 factors that were structured into six domains: physical (medical) factors (23), social health factors (21), psychological factors (14), environmental factors (5), demographic factors (5) and lifestyle factors (3). 57 factors were identified in the systematic literature review, additionally 16 factors, mostly of the social health cluster, were identified during the GMB session and the feedback rounds. CONCLUSION: The causal loop diagram offers a comprehensive visualisation of factors related to cognitive decline and their interactions. It supports the generation of hypotheses on causal relationships and interactions of factors within and between domains.

Mapping anticipated advantages and disadvantages of implementation of extensive donor genotyping: A focus group approach.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Current genotyping techniques allow typing of all relevant red cell, human leukocyte and platelet antigens in a single analysis. Even genetic markers related to donor health can be added. Implementation of this technology will affect various stakeholders within the transfusion chain. This study aims to systematically map the anticipated advantages and disadvantages of a national rollout of blood group genotyping of donors, which will affect the availability of rare donors and the implementation of an extensively typed blood transfusion policy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two focus-group sessions were held with a wide representation of stakeholders, including representatives of donor and patient organisations. A dedicated software tool was used to collect the reflections of participants on genotyping for blood group antigens and extensive matching. Additionally, stakeholders and experts discussed various prepared propositions. All information collected was categorised. RESULTS: From 162 statements collected, 59 statements (36%) were labelled as 'hopes' and 77 (48%) as 'fears'. Twenty-six (16%) statements remained unlabelled. The statements were divided in 18 categories under seven main themes: patient health, genotyping, privacy issues and ethical aspects, donor management, inventory management and logistics, hospital and transfusion laboratory and general aspects. The discussion on the propositions was analysed and summarised. CONCLUSION: Stakeholders believe that a genotyped donor pool can result in a reduction of alloimmunization and higher availability of typed blood products. There are concerns regarding logistics, costs, consent for extended typing, data sharing, privacy issues and donor management. These concerns need to be carefully addressed before further implementation.

Using Group Model Building to Capture the Complex Dynamics of Scaling Up District-Level Surgery in Arusha Region, Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Scaling up surgery at district hospitals (DHs) is the critical challenge if the Tanzanian national Surgical, Obstetric, and Anesthesia Plan (NSOAP) objectives are to be achieved. Our study aims to address this challenge by taking a dynamic view of surgical scale-up at the district level using a participatory research approach. METHODS: A group model building (GMB) workshop was held with 18 professionals from three hospitals in the Arusha region. They built a graphical representation of the local system of surgical services delivery through a facilitated discussion that employed the nominal group technique. This resulted in a causal loop diagram (CLD) from which the participants identified the requirements for scaling-up surgery and the stakeholders who could satisfy these. After the GMB sessions, we identified clusters of related variables using inductive thematic analysis and the main feedback loops driving the model. RESULTS: The CLD consists of 57 variables. These include the 48 variables that were obtained through the nominal group technique and those that participants added later. We identified 6 themes: patient benefits, financing of surgery, cost sharing, staff motivation, communication, and effects on referral hospital. There are 5 self-reinforcing feedback loops: training, learning, meeting demand, revenues, and willingness to work in a good hospital. There are four self-correcting feedback loops or 'resistors to change:' recurrent costs, income lost, staff stress, and brain drain. CONCLUSION: This study provides a systems view on the scaling up of surgery from a district level perspective. Its results enable a critical appraisal of the feasibility of implementing the NSOAP. Our results suggest that policy-makers should be wary of 'quick fixes' that have short term gains only. Long term policy that considers the complex dynamics of surgical systems and that allows for periodic evaluation and adaption is needed to scale up surgery in a sustainable manner.

Using Systems Dynamics for Capturing the Multicausality of Factors Affecting Health System Capacity in Latin America while Responding to the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Similar interventions to stop the spread of COVID-19 led to different outcomes in Latin American countries. This study aimed to capture the multicausality of factors affecting HS-capacity that could help plan a more effective response, considering health as well as social aspects. A facilitated GMB was constructed by experts and validated with a survey from a wider population. Statistical analyses estimated the impact of the main factors to the HS-capacity and revealed the differences in its mechanisms. The results show a similar four-factor structure in all countries that includes public administration, preparedness, information, and collective self-efficacy. The factors are correlated and have mediating effects with HS-capacity; this is the base for differences among countries. HS-capacity has a strong relation with public administration in Bolivia, while in Nicaragua and Uruguay it is related through preparedness. Nicaragua lacks information as a mediation effect with HS-capacity whereas Bolivia and Uruguay have, respectively, small and large mediation effects with it. These outcomes increase the understanding of the pandemic based on country-specific context and can aid policymaking in low-and middle-income countries by including these factors in future pandemic response models.

Policy options for surgical mentoring: Lessons from Zambia based on stakeholder consultation and systems science.

BACKGROUND: Supervision by surgical specialists is beneficial because they can impart skills to district hospital-level surgical teams. The SURG-Africa project in Zambia comprises a mentoring trial in selected districts, involving two provincial-level mentoring teams. The aim of this paper is to explore policy options for embedding such surgical mentoring in existing policy structures through a participatory modeling approach. METHODS: Four group model building workshops were held, two each in district and central hospitals. Participants worked in a variety of institutions and had clinical and/or administrative backgrounds. Two independent reviewers compared the causal loop diagrams (CLDs) that resulted from these workshops in a pairwise fashion to construct an integrated CLD. Graph theory was used to analyze the integrated CLD, and dynamic system behavior was explored using the Method to Analyse Relations between Variables using Enriched Loops (MARVEL) method. RESULTS: The establishment of a provincial mentoring faculty, in collaboration with key stakeholders, would be a necessary step to coordinate and sustain surgical mentoring and to monitor district-level surgical performance. Quarterly surgical mentoring reviews at the provincial level are recommended to evaluate and, if needed, adapt mentoring. District hospital administrators need to closely monitor mentee motivation. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical mentoring can play a key role in scaling up district-level surgery but its implementation is complex and requires designated provincial level coordination and regular contact with relevant stakeholders.

Not a crystal ball: Mapping opportunities and threats for the future demand of red blood cells in the Netherlands using a scenario approach.

BACKGROUND: As Western blood transfusion practices are changing, there is interest and need in anticipating the future demand of blood products and how a blood establishment can actively prepare for various long-term developments. This article provides an overview of how a scenario approach was used to prioritize key categories of drivers for the future demand of red blood cells and the organizational implications thereof for Sanquin, the Dutch national blood establishment. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Based on previously identified drivers from interviews and a literature review (Step 1), we conducted scenario sessions and a survey to rank a list of drivers ("themes") with its related opportunities and threats (Step 2), to identify mitigating measures per theme through focus groups (Step 3). RESULTS: In Step 2, 10 themes were found that were classified in terms of importance and uncertainty. These were plotted on a two-dimensional graph with an ellipse to indicate the interquartile ranges per theme. Experts rated the top three most important themes to be the blood supply organization, precision medicine, and red blood cell replacements. In Step 3, focus groups identified specific mitigating measures per theme. These measures had parallel ideas, such as the need for an innovative mentality, internal and external communication and collaboration, and building Sanquin's reputation and trust with the public. CONCLUSION: Having identified the most important themes with suggestions for mitigating measures, Sanquin can take steps to become adaptive and proactive. Other blood establishments may also use a scenario approach to create contextualized long-term strategies.

Mapping the multicausality of Alzheimer's disease through group model building.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a complex, multicausal disorder involving several spatiotemporal scales and scientific domains. While many studies focus on specific parts of this system, the complexity of AD is rarely studied as a whole. In this work, we apply systems thinking to map out known causal mechanisms and risk factors ranging from intracellular to psychosocial scales in sporadic AD. We report on the first systemic causal loop diagram (CLD) for AD, which is the result of an interdisciplinary group model building (GMB) process. The GMB was based on the input of experts from multiple domains and all proposed mechanisms were supported by scientific literature. The CLD elucidates interaction and feedback mechanisms that contribute to cognitive decline from midlife onward as described by the experts. As an immediate outcome, we observed several non-trivial reinforcing feedback loops involving factors at multiple spatial scales, which are rarely considered within the same theoretical framework. We also observed high centrality for modifiable risk factors such as social relationships and physical activity, which suggests they may be promising leverage points for interventions. This illustrates how a CLD from an interdisciplinary GMB process may lead to novel insights into complex disorders. Furthermore, the CLD is the first step in the development of a computational model for simulating the effects of risk factors on AD.

Using Group Model Building to Describe the System Driving Unhealthy Eating and Identify Intervention Points: A Participatory, Stakeholder Engagement Approach in the Caribbean.

Many Small Island Developing States of the Caribbean experience a triple burden of malnutrition with high rates of obesity, undernutrition in children, and iron deficiency anemia in women of reproductive age, driven by an inadequate, unhealthy diet. This study aimed to map the complex dynamic systems driving unhealthy eating and to identify potential points for intervention in three dissimilar countries. Stakeholders from across the food system in Jamaica (n = 16), St. Kitts and Nevis (n = 19), and St. Vincent and the Grenadines (n = 6) engaged with researchers in two group model building (GMB) workshops in 2018. Participants described and mapped the system driving unhealthy eating, identified points of intervention, and created a prioritized list of intervention strategies. Stakeholders were also interviewed before and after the workshops to provide their perspectives on the utility of this approach. Stakeholders described similar underlying systems driving unhealthy eating across the three countries, with a series of dominant feedback loops identified at multiple levels. Participants emphasized the importance of the relative availability and price of unhealthy foods, shifting cultural norms on eating, and aggressive advertising from the food industry as dominant drivers. They saw opportunities for governments to better regulate advertising, disincentivize unhealthy food options, and bolster the local agricultural sector to promote food sovereignty. They also identified the need for better coordinated policy making across multiple sectors at national and regional levels to deliver more integrated approaches to improving nutrition. GMB proved to be an effective tool for engaging a highly diverse group of stakeholders in better collective understanding of a complex problem and potential interventions.

"Dis-able bodied" or "dis-able minded": stakeholders' return-to-work experiences compared between physical and mental health conditions.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to explore if and why the return-to-work (RTW) experiences of various workplace stakeholders in the Netherlands and Denmark differ between physical and mental health conditions, and to understand the consequences of potentially different experiences for the RTW process in both health conditions. METHODS: We studied 21 cases of long-term sickness absence, and held a total of 61 semi-structured interviews with the various actors involved in these cases. RESULTS: Physical cases were seen as "easy" and mental cases as "difficult" to manage, based on the visibility and predictability of health complaints. On this ground, assessing work ability and following required RTW actions were perceived as more urgent in mental than in physical cases. Despite these perceptions, in practice, the assessment of work ability seemed to impair the RTW process in mental cases (but not in physical ones), and the (non-)uptake of RTW actions appeared to have similar results in both mental and physical cases. CONCLUSIONS: With these outcomes, the effectiveness of a differential approach is questioned, and the relevance of a bidirectional dialog on work ability and a phased RTW plan is highlighted, regardless of the absence cause. Our study also demonstrates how policymakers need to strike a balance between obligatory and permissive legislation to better involve workplaces in RTW issues. Implications for rehabilitation Both physically and mentally sick-listed employees could benefit from a bidirectional dialog on work ability as well as from a phased RTW plan. A greater role for employers in the RTW process should be accompanied with a support for sick-listed employees, in both physical and mental sickness absence cases. Dutch and Danish RTW legislation could be improved by carefully balancing obligatory and permissive rules and regulations to involve workplaces in RTW matters.