Smallholder farms have and can store more carbon than previously estimated.

Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is increasingly targeted as a key strategy in climate change mitigation and improved ecosystem resiliency. Agricultural land, a dominant global land use, provides substantial challenges and opportunities for global carbon sequestration. Despite this, global estimates of soil carbon sequestration potential often exclude agricultural land and estimates are coarse for regions in the Global South. To address these discrepancies and improve estimates, we develop a hybrid, data-augmented database approach to better estimate the magnitude of SOC sequestration potential of agricultural soils. With high-resolution (30 m) soil maps of Africa developed by the International Soils Database (iSDA) and Malawi as a case study, we create a national adjustment using site-specific soil data retrieved from 1160 agricultural fields. We use a benchmark approach to estimate the amount of SOC Malawian agricultural soils can sequester, accounting for edaphic and climatic conditions, and calculate the resulting carbon gap. Field measurements of SOC stocks and sequestration potentials were consistently larger than iSDA predictions, with an average carbon gap of 4.42 ± 0.23 Mg C ha-1 to a depth of 20 cm, with some areas exceeding 10 Mg C ha-1 . Augmenting iSDA predictions with field data also improved sensitivity to identify areas with high SOC sequestration potential by 6%-areas that may benefit from improved management practices. Overall, we estimate that 6.8 million ha of surface soil suitable for agriculture in Malawi has the potential to store 274 ± 14 Tg SOC. Our approach illustrates how ground truthing efforts remain essential to reduce errors in continent-wide soil carbon predictions for local and regional use. This work begins efforts needed across regions to develop soil carbon benchmarks that inform policies and identify high-impact areas in the effort to increase SOC globally.

The hidden land use cost of upscaling cover crops.

Cover cropping is considered a cornerstone practice in sustainable agriculture; however, little attention has been paid to the cover crop production supply chain. In this Perspective, we estimate land use requirements to supply the United States maize production area with cover crop seed, finding that across 18 cover crops, on average 3.8% (median 2.0%) of current production area would be required, with the popular cover crops rye and hairy vetch requiring as much as 4.5% and 11.9%, respectively. The latter land requirement is comparable to the annual amount of maize grain lost to disease in the U.S. We highlight avenues for reducing these high land use costs.

The home field advantage of modern plant breeding.

Since the mid-20th century, crop breeding has driven unprecedented yield gains. Breeders generally select for broadly- and reliably-performing varieties that display little genotype-by-environment interaction (GxE). In contrast, ecological theory predicts that across environments that vary spatially or temporally, the most productive population will be a mixture of narrowly adapted specialists. We quantified patterns of broad and narrow adaptation in modern, commercial maize (Zea mays L.) hybrids planted across 216 site-years, from 1999-2018, for the University of Illinois yield trials. We found that location was the dominant source of yield variation (44.5%), and yearly weather was the smallest (1.7%), which suggested a benefit for reliable performance in narrow biophysical environments. Varieties displayed a large "home field advantage" when growing in the location of best performance relative to other varieties. Home field advantage accounted for 19% of GxE and provided a yield increase of 1.01 ± 0.04 Mg ∙ ha-1 (7.6% relative to mean yield), yet was both smaller than predicted by a null model and unchanged across time. This counterfactual suggests that commercial breeding programs have missed an opportunity to further increase yields by leveraging local adaptation. Public breeding programs may pursue this opportunity by releasing specialist varieties that perform reliably in narrow environments. As seed sources are increasingly privatized and consolidated, this alternate strategy may compliment private breeding to support global food security.

Perennial Grain and Oilseed Crops.

Historically, agroecosystems have been designed to produce food. Modern societies now demand more from food systems-not only food, fuel, and fiber, but also a variety of ecosystem services. And although today's farming practices are producing unprecedented yields, they are also contributing to ecosystem problems such as soil erosion, greenhouse gas emissions, and water pollution. This review highlights the potential benefits of perennial grains and oilseeds and discusses recent progress in their development. Because of perennials' extended growing season and deep root systems, they may require less fertilizer, help prevent runoff, and be more drought tolerant than annuals. Their production is expected to reduce tillage, which could positively affect biodiversity. End-use possibilities involve food, feed, fuel, and nonfood bioproducts. Fostering multidisciplinary collaborations will be essential for the successful integration of perennials into commercial cropping and food-processing systems.