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BACKGROUND: Disability progression is a key milestone in the disease evolution of people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Prediction models of the probability of disability progression have not yet reached the level of trust needed to be adopted in the clinic. A common benchmark to assess model development in multiple sclerosis is also currently lacking. METHODS: Data of adult PwMS with a follow-up of at least three years from 146 MS centers, spread over 40 countries and collected by the MSBase consortium was used. With basic inclusion criteria for quality requirements, it represents a total of 15, 240 PwMS. External validation was performed and repeated five times to assess the significance of the results. Transparent Reporting for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines were followed. Confirmed disability progression after two years was predicted, with a confirmation window of six months. Only routinely collected variables were used such as the expanded disability status scale, treatment, relapse information, and MS course. To learn the probability of disability progression, state-of-the-art machine learning models were investigated. The discrimination performance of the models is evaluated with the area under the receiver operator curve (ROC-AUC) and under the precision recall curve (AUC-PR), and their calibration via the Brier score and the expected calibration error. All our preprocessing and model code are available at https://gitlab.com/edebrouwer/ms_benchmark, making this task an ideal benchmark for predicting disability progression in MS. FINDINGS: Machine learning models achieved a ROC-AUC of 0â 71 ± 0â 01, an AUC-PR of 0â 26 ± 0â 02, a Brier score of 0â 1 ± 0â 01 and an expected calibration error of 0â 07 ± 0â 04. The history of disability progression was identified as being more predictive for future disability progression than the treatment or relapses history. CONCLUSIONS: Good discrimination and calibration performance on an external validation set is achieved, using only routinely collected variables. This suggests machine-learning models can reliably inform clinicians about the future occurrence of progression and are mature for a clinical impact study.
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Purpose: Shared decision-making is critical in multiple sclerosis (MS) due to the uncertainty of the disease trajectory over time and the large number of treatment options with differing efficacy, safety and administration characteristics. The aim of this study was to assess patients' decisional conflict regarding the choice of a disease-modifying therapy and its associated factors in patients with mid-stage relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). Methods: A multicenter, non-interventional study was conducted. Adult patients with a diagnosis of RRMS (2017 revised McDonald criteria) and disease duration of 3 to 8 years were included. The level of uncertainty experienced by a patient when faced with making a treatment choice was assessed using the 4-item Decisional Conflict Scale. A battery of patient-reported and clinician-rated measures was administered to obtain information on symptom severity, illness perception, illness-related uncertainty, regret, MS knowledge, risk taking behavior, preferred role in the decision-making process, cognition, and self-management. Patients were recruited during routine follow-up visits and completed all questionnaires online using electronic tablets at the hospital. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted. Results: A total of 201 patients were studied. Mean age (Standard deviation) was 38.7 (8.4) years and 74.1% were female. Median disease duration (Interquartile range) was 6.0 (4.0-7.0) years. Median EDSS score was 1.0 (0-2.0). Sixty-seven (33.3%) patients reported a decisional conflict. These patients had lower MS knowledge and more illness uncertainty, anxiety, depressive symptoms, fatigue, subjective symptom severity, a threatening illness perception, and poorer quality of life than their counterparts. Lack of decisional conflict was associated with MS knowledge (Odds ratio [OR]=1.195, 95% CI 1.045, 1.383, p=0.013), self-management (OR=1.049, 95% CI 1.013, 1.093, p=0.018), and regret after a healthcare decision (OR=0.860, 95% CI 0.756, 0.973, p=0.018) in the multivariate analysis. Conclusion: Decisional conflict regarding the selection of a disease-modifying therapy was a common phenomenon in patients with mid-stage RRMS. Identifying factors associated with decisional conflict may be useful to implement preventive strategies that help patients better understand their condition and strengthen their self-management resources.
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BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic raised concern amongst clinicians that disease-modifying therapies (DMT), particularly anti-CD20 monoclonal antibodies (mAb) and fingolimod, could worsen COVID-19 in people with multiple sclerosis (pwMS). This study aimed to examine DMT prescribing trends pre- and post-pandemic onset. METHODS: A multi-centre longitudinal study with 8,771 participants from MSBase was conducted. Two time periods were defined: pre-pandemic (March 11 2018-March 10 2020) and post-pandemic onset (March 11 2020-11 March 2022). The association between time and prescribing trends was analysed using multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression. DMT initiation refers to first initiation of any DMT, whilst DMT switches indicate changing regimen within 6 months of last use. RESULTS: Post-pandemic onset, there was a significant increase in DMT initiation/switching to natalizumab and cladribine [(Natalizumab-initiation: OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.39-2.13; switching: OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.40-1.98), (Cladribine-initiation: OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.09-1.87; switching: OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.41-1.98)]. Anti-CD20mAb initiation/switching decreased in the year of the pandemic, but recovered in the second year, such that overall odds increased slightly post-pandemic (initiation: OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.06-1.49; Switching: OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.02-1.29. Initiation/switching of fingolimod, interferon-beta, and alemtuzumab significantly decreased [(Fingolimod-initiation: OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.41-0.73; switching: OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.41-0.58), (Interferon-gamma-initiation: OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.41-0.57; switching: OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.62-0.99), (Alemtuzumab-initiation: OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.15-0.48; switching: OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.17-0.44)]. CONCLUSIONS: Post-pandemic onset, clinicians preferentially prescribed natalizumab and cladribine over anti-CD20 mAbs and fingolimod, likely to preserve efficacy but reduce perceived immunosuppressive risks. This could have implications for disease progression in pwMS. Our findings highlight the significance of equitable DMT access globally, and the importance of evidence-based decision-making in global health challenges.
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BACKGROUND: It remains unclear whether routine cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) parameters can serve as predictors of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease course. METHODS: This large-scale cohort study included persons with MS with CSF data documented in the MSBase registry. CSF parameters to predict time to reach confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores 4, 6 and 7 and annualised relapse rate in the first 2 years after diagnosis (ARR2) were assessed using (cox) regression analysis. RESULTS: In total, 11 245 participants were included of which 93.7% (n=10 533) were persons with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). In RRMS, the presence of CSF oligoclonal bands (OCBs) was associated with shorter time to disability milestones EDSS 4 (adjusted HR=1.272 (95% CI, 1.089 to 1.485), p=0.002), EDSS 6 (HR=1.314 (95% CI, 1.062 to 1.626), p=0.012) and EDSS 7 (HR=1.686 (95% CI, 1.111 to 2.558), p=0.014). On the other hand, the presence of CSF pleocytosis (≥5 cells/µL) increased time to moderate disability (EDSS 4) in RRMS (HR=0.774 (95% CI, 0.632 to 0.948), p=0.013). None of the CSF variables were associated with time to disability milestones in persons with primary progressive MS (PPMS). The presence of CSF pleocytosis increased ARR2 in RRMS (adjusted R2=0.036, p=0.015). CONCLUSIONS: In RRMS, the presence of CSF OCBs predicts shorter time to disability milestones, whereas CSF pleocytosis could be protective. This could however not be found in PPMS. CSF pleocytosis is associated with short-term inflammatory disease activity in RRMS. CSF analysis provides prognostic information which could aid in clinical and therapeutic decision-making.
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A multicenter study involving 204 adults with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) assessed the dimensionality and item characteristics of the Mishel-Uncertainty of Illness Scale (MUIS), a generic self-assessment tool. Mokken analysis identified two dimensions in the MUIS with an appropriate item and overall scale scalability after excluding nonclassifiable items. A refined 12-item MUIS, employing a grade response model, effectively discriminated uncertainty levels among RRMS patients (likelihood ratio test p-value = .03). These findings suggest the potential value of the 12-item MUIS as a reliable measure for assessing uncertainty associated with the course of illness in RRMS.
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BACKGROUND: Simultaneous comparisons of multiple disease-modifying therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) over an extended follow-up are lacking. Here we emulate a randomised trial simultaneously comparing the effectiveness of six commonly used therapies over 5 years. METHODS: Data from 74 centres in 35 countries were sourced from MSBase. For each patient, the first eligible intervention was analysed, censoring at change/discontinuation of treatment. The compared interventions included natalizumab, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, interferon beta, glatiramer acetate and no treatment. Marginal structural Cox models (MSMs) were used to estimate the average treatment effects (ATEs) and the average treatment effects among the treated (ATT), rebalancing the compared groups at 6-monthly intervals on age, sex, birth-year, pregnancy status, treatment, relapses, disease duration, disability and disease course. The outcomes analysed were incidence of relapses, 12-month confirmed disability worsening and improvement. RESULTS: 23 236 eligible patients were diagnosed with RRMS or clinically isolated syndrome. Compared with glatiramer acetate (reference), several therapies showed a superior ATE in reducing relapses: natalizumab (HR=0.44, 95% CI=0.40 to 0.50), fingolimod (HR=0.60, 95% CI=0.54 to 0.66) and dimethyl fumarate (HR=0.78, 95% CI=0.66 to 0.92). Further, natalizumab (HR=0.43, 95% CI=0.32 to 0.56) showed a superior ATE in reducing disability worsening and in disability improvement (HR=1.32, 95% CI=1.08 to 1.60). The pairwise ATT comparisons also showed superior effects of natalizumab followed by fingolimod on relapses and disability. CONCLUSIONS: The effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in active RRMS is superior to dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, glatiramer acetate and interferon beta. This study demonstrates the utility of MSM in emulating trials to compare clinical effectiveness among multiple interventions simultaneously.
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Esclerosis Múltiple Recurrente-Remitente , Esclerosis Múltiple , Humanos , Embarazo , Femenino , Esclerosis Múltiple Recurrente-Remitente/tratamiento farmacológico , Acetato de Glatiramer/uso terapéutico , Clorhidrato de Fingolimod/uso terapéutico , Inmunosupresores/uso terapéutico , Natalizumab/uso terapéutico , Esclerosis Múltiple/tratamiento farmacológico , Dimetilfumarato/uso terapéutico , Interferón beta/uso terapéutico , RecurrenciaRESUMEN
WHAT IS THIS SUMMARY ABOUT?: Patient registries contain anonymous data from people who share the same medical condition. The MSBase registry contains information from over 80,000 people living with multiple sclerosis (MS) across 41 countries. Using information from the MSBase registry, the GLIMPSE (Generating Learnings In MultiPle SclErosis) study looked at real-life outcomes in 3475 people living with MS who were treated with cladribine tablets (Mavenclad®) compared with other oral treatments. WHAT WERE THE RESULTS?: Results showed that people treated with cladribine tablets stayed on treatment for longer than other treatments given by mouth. They also had fewer relapses (also called flare ups of symptoms) than people who received a different oral treatment for their MS. WHAT DO THE RESULTS MEAN?: The results provide evidence that, compared with other oral treatments for MS, cladribine tablets are an effective medicine for people living with MS.
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Esclerosis Múltiple Recurrente-Remitente , Esclerosis Múltiple , Humanos , Cladribina/uso terapéutico , Esclerosis Múltiple/tratamiento farmacológico , Inmunosupresores/uso terapéutico , Esclerosis Múltiple Recurrente-Remitente/tratamiento farmacológico , Comprimidos , Sistema de RegistrosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Some studies comparing primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS, SPMS) report similar ages at onset of the progressive phase and similar rates of subsequent disability accrual. Others report later onset and/or faster accrual in SPMS. Comparisons have been complicated by regional cohort effects, phenotypic differences in sex ratio and management and variable diagnostic criteria for SPMS. METHODS: We compared disability accrual in PPMS and operationally diagnosed SPMS in the international, clinic-based MSBase cohort. Inclusion required PPMS or SPMS with onset at age ≥18 years since 1995. We estimated Andersen-Gill hazard ratios for disability accrual on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), adjusted for sex, age, baseline disability, EDSS score frequency and drug therapies, with centre and patient as random effects. We also estimated ages at onset of the progressive phase (Kaplan-Meier) and at EDSS milestones (Turnbull). Analyses were replicated with physician-diagnosed SPMS. RESULTS: Included patients comprised 1872 with PPMS (47% men; 50% with activity) and 2575 with SPMS (32% men; 40% with activity). Relative to PPMS, SPMS had older age at onset of the progressive phase (median 46.7 years (95% CI 46.2-47.3) vs 43.9 (43.3-44.4); p<0.001), greater baseline disability, slower disability accrual (HR 0.86 (0.78-0.94); p<0.001) and similar age at wheelchair dependence. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate later onset of the progressive phase and slower disability accrual in SPMS versus PPMS. This may balance greater baseline disability in SPMS, yielding convergent disability trajectories across phenotypes. The different rates of disability accrual should be considered before amalgamating PPMS and SPMS in clinical trials.
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Personas con Discapacidad , Esclerosis Múltiple Crónica Progresiva , Esclerosis Múltiple , Humanos , Esclerosis Múltiple Crónica Progresiva/tratamiento farmacológico , Progresión de la Enfermedad , Modelos de Riesgos ProporcionalesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Effectiveness of cladribine tablets, an oral disease-modifying treatment (DMT) for multiple sclerosis (MS), was established in clinical trials and confirmed with real-world experience. OBJECTIVES: Use real-world data to compare treatment patterns and clinical outcomes in people with MS (pwMS) treated with cladribine tablets versus other oral DMTs. METHODS: Retrospective treatment comparisons were based on data from the international MSBase registry. Eligible pwMS started treatment with cladribine, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide tablets from 2018 to mid-2021 and were censored at treatment discontinuation/switch, death, loss to follow-up, pregnancy, or study period end. Treatment persistence was evaluated as time to discontinuation/switch; relapse outcomes included time to first relapse and annualized relapse rate (ARR). RESULTS: Cohorts included 633 pwMS receiving cladribine tablets, 1195 receiving fingolimod, 912 receiving dimethyl fumarate, and 735 receiving teriflunomide. Individuals treated with fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide switched treatment significantly more quickly than matched cladribine tablet cohorts (adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 4.00 (2.54-6.32), 7.04 (4.16-11.93), and 6.52 (3.79-11.22), respectively). Cladribine tablet cohorts had significantly longer time-to-treatment discontinuation, time to first relapse, and lower ARR, compared with other oral DMT cohorts. CONCLUSION: Cladribine tablets were associated with a significantly greater real-world treatment persistence and more favorable relapse outcomes than all oral DMT comparators.
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Esclerosis Múltiple Recurrente-Remitente , Esclerosis Múltiple , Humanos , Esclerosis Múltiple/tratamiento farmacológico , Cladribina/uso terapéutico , Clorhidrato de Fingolimod/uso terapéutico , Inmunosupresores/uso terapéutico , Dimetilfumarato/uso terapéutico , Estudios Retrospectivos , Sistema de Registros , Comprimidos/uso terapéutico , Recurrencia , Esclerosis Múltiple Recurrente-Remitente/tratamiento farmacológicoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Over the decades, several natural history studies on patients with primary (PPMS) or secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) were reported from international registries. In PPMS, a consistent heterogeneity on long-term disability trajectories was demonstrated. The aim of this study was to identify subgroups of patients with SPMS with similar longitudinal trajectories of disability over time. METHODS: All patients with MS collected within Big MS registries who received an SPMS diagnosis from physicians (cohort 1) or satisfied the Lorscheider criteria (cohort 2) were considered. Longitudinal Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores were modelled by a latent class growth analysis (LCGA), using a non-linear function of time from the first EDSS visit in the range 3-4. RESULTS: A total of 3613 patients with SPMS were included in the cohort 1. LCGA detected three different subgroups of patients with a mild (n=1297; 35.9%), a moderate (n=1936; 53.6%) and a severe (n=380; 10.5%) disability trajectory. Median time to EDSS 6 was 12.1, 5.0 and 1.7 years, for the three groups, respectively; the probability to reach EDSS 6 at 8 years was 14.4%, 78.4% and 98.3%, respectively. Similar results were found among 7613 patients satisfying the Lorscheider criteria. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to previous interpretations, patients with SPMS progress at greatly different rates. Our identification of distinct trajectories can guide better patient selection in future phase 3 SPMS clinical trials. Additionally, distinct trajectories could reflect heterogeneous pathological mechanisms of progression.
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Personas con Discapacidad , Esclerosis Múltiple Crónica Progresiva , Esclerosis Múltiple , Humanos , Análisis de Clases Latentes , Progresión de la Enfermedad , Esclerosis Múltiple Crónica Progresiva/tratamiento farmacológico , Sistema de Registros , Esclerosis Múltiple/tratamiento farmacológicoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. METHODS: In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. RESULTS: The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29-0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score Ë1.5). CONCLUSIONS: Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual.
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Evaluación de la Discapacidad , Esclerosis Múltiple , Cladribina/uso terapéutico , Estudios de Cohortes , Progresión de la Enfermedad , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Esclerosis Múltiple/tratamiento farmacológico , Esclerosis Múltiple/patología , Esclerosis Múltiple Recurrente-Remitente , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como AsuntoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Research in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has recently focused on extracting knowledge from real-world clinical data sources. This type of data is more abundant than data produced during clinical trials and potentially more informative about real-world clinical practice. However, this comes at the cost of less curated and controlled data sets. In this work we aim to predict disability progression by optimally extracting information from longitudinal patient data in the real-world setting, with a special focus on the sporadic sampling problem. METHODS: We use machine learning methods suited for patient trajectories modeling, such as recurrent neural networks and tensor factorization. A subset of 6682 patients from the MSBase registry is used. RESULTS: We can predict disability progression of patients in a two-year horizon with an ROC-AUC of 0.85, which represents a 32% decrease in the ranking pair error (1-AUC) compared to reference methods using static clinical features. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the models available in the literature, this work uses the most complete patient history for MS disease progression prediction and represents a step forward towards AI-assisted precision medicine in MS.
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Aprendizaje Automático , Esclerosis Múltiple , Humanos , Redes Neurales de la ComputaciónRESUMEN
Intronic single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the ANKRD55 gene are associated with the risk for multiple sclerosis (MS) and rheumatoid arthritis by genome-wide association studies (GWAS). The risk alleles have been linked to higher expression levels of ANKRD55 and the neighboring IL6ST (gp130) gene in CD4+ T lymphocytes of healthy controls. The biological function of ANKRD55, its role in the immune system, and cellular sources of expression other than lymphocytes remain uncharacterized. Here, we show that monocytes gain capacity to express ANKRD55 during differentiation in immature monocyte-derived dendritic cells (moDCs) in the presence of interleukin (IL)-4/granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF). ANKRD55 expression levels are further enhanced by retinoic acid agonist AM580 but downregulated following maturation with interferon (IFN)-γ and lipopolysaccharide (LPS). ANKRD55 was detected in the nucleus of moDC in nuclear speckles. We also analyzed the adjacent IL6ST, IL31RA, and SLC38A9 genes. Of note, in healthy controls, MS risk SNP genotype influenced ANKRD55 and IL6ST expression in immature moDC in opposite directions to that in CD4+ T cells. This effect was stronger for a partially correlated SNP, rs13186299, that is located, similar to the main MS risk SNPs, in an ANKRD55 intron. Upon analysis in MS patients, the main GWAS MS risk SNP rs7731626 was associated with ANKRD55 expression levels in CD4+ T cells. MoDC-specific ANKRD55 and IL6ST mRNA levels showed significant differences according to the clinical form of the disease, but, in contrast to healthy controls, were not influenced by genotype. We also measured serum sgp130 levels, which were found to be higher in homozygotes of the protective allele of rs7731626. Our study characterizes ANKRD55 expression in moDC and indicates monocyte-to-dendritic cell (Mo-DC) differentiation as a process potentially influenced by MS risk SNPs.
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Proteínas Portadoras/genética , Receptor gp130 de Citocinas/genética , Células Dendríticas/inmunología , Células Dendríticas/metabolismo , Variación Genética , Esclerosis Múltiple/etiología , Esclerosis Múltiple/metabolismo , Alelos , Autoinmunidad/genética , Benzoatos/farmacología , Biomarcadores , Diferenciación Celular/genética , Diferenciación Celular/inmunología , Regulación de la Expresión Génica/efectos de los fármacos , Predisposición Genética a la Enfermedad , Humanos , Inmunofenotipificación , Leucocitos Mononucleares/inmunología , Leucocitos Mononucleares/metabolismo , Linfocitos T/inmunología , Linfocitos T/metabolismo , Tetrahidronaftalenos/farmacologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Cerebellar and brainstem symptoms are common in early stages of multiple sclerosis (MS) yet their prognostic values remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate long-term disability outcomes in patients with early cerebellar and brainstem symptoms. METHODS: This study used data from MSBase registry. Patients with early cerebellar/brainstem presentations were identified as those with cerebellar/brainstem relapse(s) or functional system score ⩾ 2 in the initial 2 years. Early pyramidal presentation was chosen as a comparator. Andersen-Gill models were used to compare cumulative hazards of (1) disability progression events and (2) relapses between patients with and without early cerebellar/brainstem symptoms. Mixed effect models were used to estimate the associations between early cerebellar/brainstem presentations and expanded disability status scale (EDSS) scores. RESULTS: The study cohort consisted of 10,513 eligible patients, including 2723 and 3915 patients with early cerebellar and brainstem symptoms, respectively. Early cerebellar presentation was associated with greater hazard of progression events (HR = 1.37, p < 0.001) and EDSS (ß = 0.16, p < 0.001). Patients with early brainstem symptoms had lower hazard of progression events (HR = 0.89, p = 0.01) and EDSS (ß = -0.06, p < 0.001). Neither presentation was associated with changes in relapse risk. CONCLUSION: Early cerebellar presentation is associated with unfavourable outcomes, while early brainstem presentation is associated with favourable prognosis. These presentations may be used as MS prognostic markers and guide therapeutic approach.
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Personas con Discapacidad , Esclerosis Múltiple , Tronco Encefálico , Estudios de Cohortes , Evaluación de la Discapacidad , Progresión de la Enfermedad , HumanosRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that immunotherapy prevents long-term disability in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS), we modeled disability outcomes in 14,717 patients. METHODS: We studied patients from MSBase followed for ≥1 year, with ≥3 visits, ≥1 visit per year, and exposed to MS therapy, and a subset of patients with ≥15-year follow-up. Marginal structural models were used to compare the cumulative hazards of 12-month confirmed increase and decrease in disability, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) step 6, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated periods. Marginal structural models were continuously readjusted for patient age, sex, pregnancy, date, disease course, time from first symptom, prior relapse history, disability, and MRI activity. RESULTS: A total of 14,717 patients were studied. During the treated periods, patients were less likely to experience relapses (hazard ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43-0.82, p = 0.0016), worsening of disability (0.56, 0.38-0.82, p = 0.0026), and progress to EDSS step 6 (0.33, 0.19-0.59, p = 0.00019). Among 1,085 patients with ≥15-year follow-up, the treated patients were less likely to experience relapses (0.59, 0.50-0.70, p = 10-9) and worsening of disability (0.81, 0.67-0.99, p = 0.043). CONCLUSION: Continued treatment with MS immunotherapies reduces disability accrual by 19%-44% (95% CI 1%-62%), the risk of need of a walking aid by 67% (95% CI 41%-81%), and the frequency of relapses by 40-41% (95% CI 18%-57%) over 15 years. This study provides evidence that disease-modifying therapies are effective in improving disability outcomes in relapsing-remitting MS over the long term. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class IV evidence that, for patients with relapsing-remitting MS, long-term exposure to immunotherapy prevents neurologic disability.
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Factores Inmunológicos/uso terapéutico , Esclerosis Múltiple Recurrente-Remitente/tratamiento farmacológico , Adulto , Evaluación de la Discapacidad , Progresión de la Enfermedad , Femenino , Clorhidrato de Fingolimod/uso terapéutico , Acetato de Glatiramer/uso terapéutico , Humanos , Inmunosupresores/uso terapéutico , Interferón beta/uso terapéutico , Estudios Longitudinales , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Esclerosis Múltiple Recurrente-Remitente/fisiopatología , Natalizumab/uso terapéutico , Modelos de Riesgos ProporcionalesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) is a widely used measure of the disability progression rate. However, the global MSSS may not be the best basis for comparison between all patient groups. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated sex-specific and onset phenotype-specific MSSS matrices to determine if they were more effective than the global MSSS as a basis for comparison within these subsets. METHODS: Using a large international dataset of multiple sclerosis (MS) patient records and the original MSSS algorithm, we constructed global, sex-specific and onset phenotype-specific MSSS matrices. We compared matrices using permutation analysis. RESULTS: Our final dataset included 30,203 MS cases, with 28.9% males and 6.5% progressive-onset cases. Our global MSSS matrix did not differ from previously published data (p > 0.05). The progressive-onset-specific matrix differed significantly from the relapsing-onset-specific matrix (p < 0.001), with lower MSSS attributed to cases with the same Expanded Disability Status Score (EDSS) and disease duration. When evaluated with a simulation, using an onset-specific MSSS improved statistical power in mixed cohorts. There were no significant differences by sex. CONCLUSION: The differences in the disability accrual rate between progressive- and relapsing-onset MS have a significant effect on MSSS. An onset-specific MSSS should be used when comparing the rate of disability progression among progressive-onset cases and for mixed cohorts.
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Esclerosis Múltiple , Evaluación de la Discapacidad , Progresión de la Enfermedad , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Esclerosis Múltiple/diagnóstico , Esclerosis Múltiple/epidemiología , Fenotipo , Recurrencia , Índice de Severidad de la EnfermedadRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The risk factors for conversion from relapsing-remitting to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis remain highly contested. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the demographic, clinical and paraclinical features that influence the risk of conversion to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. METHODS: Patients with adult-onset relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis and at least four recorded disability scores were selected from MSBase, a global observational cohort. The risk of conversion to objectively defined secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was evaluated at multiple time points per patient using multivariable marginal Cox regression models. Sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: A total of 15,717 patients were included in the primary analysis. Older age (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.02, p < 0.001), longer disease duration (HR = 1.01, p = 0.038), a higher Expanded Disability Status Scale score (HR = 1.30, p < 0.001), more rapid disability trajectory (HR = 2.82, p < 0.001) and greater number of relapses in the previous year (HR = 1.07, p = 0.010) were independently associated with an increased risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Improving disability (HR = 0.62, p = 0.039) and disease-modifying therapy exposure (HR = 0.71, p = 0.007) were associated with a lower risk. Recent cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity, evidence of spinal cord lesions and oligoclonal bands in the cerebrospinal fluid were not associated with the risk of conversion. CONCLUSION: Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis increases with age, duration of illness and worsening disability and decreases with improving disability. Therapy may delay the onset of secondary progression.
Asunto(s)
Progresión de la Enfermedad , Factores Inmunológicos/farmacología , Esclerosis Múltiple Crónica Progresiva/epidemiología , Esclerosis Múltiple Recurrente-Remitente/epidemiología , Índice de Severidad de la Enfermedad , Adulto , Femenino , Humanos , Estudios Longitudinales , Masculino , Esclerosis Múltiple Crónica Progresiva/tratamiento farmacológico , Esclerosis Múltiple Crónica Progresiva/fisiopatología , Esclerosis Múltiple Recurrente-Remitente/tratamiento farmacológico , Esclerosis Múltiple Recurrente-Remitente/fisiopatología , RiesgoRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: Oral immunotherapies have become a standard treatment in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Direct comparison of their effect on relapse and disability is needed. METHODS: We identified all patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis treated with teriflunomide, dimethyl fumarate or fingolimod, with minimum 3-month treatment persistence and disability follow-up in the global MSBase cohort study. Patients were matched using propensity scores. Three pairwise analyses compared annualised relapse rates and hazards of disability accumulation, disability improvement and treatment discontinuation (analysed with negative binomial models and weighted conditional survival models, with pairwise censoring). RESULTS: The eligible cohorts consisted of 614 (teriflunomide), 782 (dimethyl fumarate) or 2332 (fingolimod) patients, followed over the median of 2.5 years. Annualised relapse rates were lower on fingolimod compared with teriflunomide (0.18 vs 0.24; p=0.05) and dimethyl fumarate (0.20 vs 0.26; p=0.01) and similar on dimethyl fumarate and teriflunomide (0.19 vs 0.22; p=0.55). No differences in disability accumulation (p≥0.59) or improvement (p≥0.14) were found between the therapies. In patients with ≥3-month treatment persistence, subsequent discontinuations were less likely on fingolimod than teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate (p<0.001). Discontinuation rates on teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate were similar (p=0.68). CONCLUSION: The effect of fingolimod on relapse frequency was superior to teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate. The effect of the three oral therapies on disability outcomes was similar during the initial 2.5 years on treatment. Persistence on fingolimod was superior to the two comparator drugs.