High-resolution impact-based early warning system for riverine flooding.

Despite considerable advances in flood forecasting during recent decades, state-of-the-art, operational flood early warning systems (FEWS) need to be equipped with near-real-time inundation and impact forecasts and their associated uncertainties. High-resolution, impact-based flood forecasts provide insightful information for better-informed decisions and tailored emergency actions. Valuable information can now be provided to local authorities for risk-based decision-making by utilising high-resolution lead-time maps and potential impacts to buildings and infrastructures. Here, we demonstrate a comprehensive floodplain inundation hindcast of the 2021 European Summer Flood illustrating these possibilities for better disaster preparedness, offering a 17-hour lead time for informed and advisable actions.

Serum identification of at-risk MASH: The metabolomics-advanced steatohepatitis fibrosis score (MASEF).

BACKGROUND: Early identification of those with NAFLD activity score ≥ 4 and significant fibrosis (≥F2) or at-risk metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) is a priority as these patients are at increased risk for disease progression and may benefit from therapies. We developed and validated a highly specific metabolomics-driven score to identify at-risk MASH. METHODS: We included derivation (n = 790) and validation (n = 565) cohorts from international tertiary centers. Patients underwent laboratory assessment and liver biopsy for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease. Based on 12 lipids, body mass index, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase, the MASEF score was developed to identify at-risk MASH and compared to the FibroScan-AST (FAST) score. We further compared the performance of a FIB-4 + MASEF algorithm to that of FIB-4 + liver stiffness measurements (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE). RESULTS: The diagnostic performance of the MASEF score showed an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.79), 0.69, 0.74, 0.53, and 0.85 in the derivation cohort, and 0.79 (95% CI 0.75-0.83), 0.78, 0.65, 0.48, and 0.88 in the validation cohort, while FibroScan-AST performance in the validation cohort was 0.74 (95% CI 0.68-0.79; p = 0.064), 0.58, 0.79, 0.67, and 0.73, respectively. FIB-4+MASEF showed similar overall performance compared with FIB-4 + LSM by VCTE ( p = 0.69) to identify at-risk MASH. CONCLUSION: MASEF is a promising diagnostic tool for the assessment of at-risk MASH. It could be used alternatively to LSM by VCTE in the algorithm that is currently recommended by several guidance publications.

Predicting survival in patients with 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding receiving ß-blockers+ligation to prevent re-bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is the treatment of choice for high-risk acute variceal bleeding (AVB; i.e., Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP] B8-9+active bleeding/C10-13). Nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation for secondary prophylaxis. We investigated prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' AVB to identify subgroups who may benefit from more potent treatments (i.e., TIPS) to prevent further decompensation and mortality. METHODS: A total of 2,225 adults with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding were prospectively recruited at 34 centres between 2011-2015; for the purpose of this study, case definitions and information on prognostic indicators at index AVB and on day 5 were further refined in low-risk patients, of whom 581 (without failure to control bleeding or contraindications to TIPS) who were managed by non-selective beta-blockers/endoscopic variceal ligation, were finally included. Patients were followed for 1 year. RESULTS: Overall, 90 patients (15%) re-bled and 70 (12%) patients died during follow-up. Using clinical routine data, no meaningful predictors of re-bleeding were identified. However, re-bleeding (included as a time-dependent co-variable) increased mortality, even after accounting for differences in patient characteristics (adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio: 2.57; 95% CI 1.43-4.62; p = 0.002). A nomogram including CTP, creatinine, and sodium measured at baseline accurately (concordance: 0.752) stratified the risk of death. CONCLUSION: The majority of 'non-high-risk' patients with AVB have an excellent prognosis, if treated according to current recommendations. However, about one-fifth of patients, i.e. those with CTP ≥8 and/or high creatinine levels or hyponatremia, have a considerable risk of death within 1 year of the index bleed. Future clinical trials should investigate whether elective TIPS placement reduces mortality in these patients. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in high-risk acute variceal bleeding; nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation. This is the first large-scale study investigating prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding. While no clinically meaningful predictors were identified for re-bleeding, we developed a nomogram integrating baseline Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, creatinine, and sodium to stratify mortality risk. Our study paves the way for future clinical trials evaluating whether elective transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in presumably 'non-high-risk' patients who are identified as being at increased risk of death.

Randomized, controlled clinical trial of the DIALIVE liver dialysis device versus standard of care in patients with acute-on- chronic liver failure.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is characterized by severe systemic inflammation, multi-organ failure and high mortality rates. Its treatment is an urgent unmet need. DIALIVE is a novel liver dialysis device that aims to exchange dysfunctional albumin and remove damage- and pathogen-associated molecular patterns. This first-in-man randomized-controlled trial was performed with the primary aim of assessing the safety of DIALIVE in patients with ACLF, with secondary aims of evaluating its clinical effects, device performance and effect on pathophysiologically relevant biomarkers. METHODS: Thirty-two patients with alcohol-related ACLF were included. Patients were treated with DIALIVE for up to 5 days and end points were assessed at Day 10. Safety was assessed in all patients (n = 32). The secondary aims were assessed in a pre-specified subgroup that had at least three treatment sessions with DIALIVE (n = 30). RESULTS: There were no significant differences in 28-day mortality or occurrence of serious adverse events between the groups. Significant reduction in the severity of endotoxemia and improvement in albumin function was observed in the DIALIVE group, which translated into a significant reduction in the CLIF-C (Chronic Liver Failure consortium) organ failure (p = 0.018) and CLIF-C ACLF scores (p = 0.042) at Day 10. Time to resolution of ACLF was significantly faster in DIALIVE group (p = 0.036). Biomarkers of systemic inflammation such as IL-8 (p = 0.006), cell death [cytokeratin-18: M30 (p = 0.005) and M65 (p = 0.029)], endothelial function [asymmetric dimethylarginine (p = 0.002)] and, ligands for Toll-like receptor 4 (p = 0.030) and inflammasome (p = 0.002) improved significantly in the DIALIVE group. CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate that DIALIVE appears to be safe and impacts positively on prognostic scores and pathophysiologically relevant biomarkers in patients with ACLF. Larger, adequately powered studies are warranted to further confirm its safety and efficacy. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: This is the first-in-man clinical trial which tested DIALIVE, a novel liver dialysis device for the treatment of cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure, a condition associated with severe inflammation, organ failures and a high risk of death. The study met the primary endpoint, confirming the safety of the DIALIVE system. Additionally, DIALIVE reduced inflammation and improved clinical parameters. However, it did not reduce mortality in this small study and further larger clinical trials are required to re-confirm its safety and to evaluate efficacy. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: NCT03065699.

AKI-HRS, more than a name change for type-1 hepatorenal syndrome.

Acute renal failure (ARF) development is likely the most relevant event in the natural history of severely decompensated cirrhosis. It is a common complication affecting 20-49% of inpatients with decompensated cirrhosis. Also, its presence is associated with a notable increase in morbidity and mortality, and hampers management of classical cirrhosis decompensations such as ascites or hepatic encephalopathy.

Alcohol-related liver disease phenotype impacts survival after an acute variceal bleeding episode.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Alcohol-related hepatitis (AH) encompasses a high mortality. AH might be a concomitant event in patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB). The current study aimed to assess the prevalence of AH in patients with AVB and to compare the clinical outcomes of AH patients to other alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) phenotypes and viral cirrhosis. METHODS: Multicentre, observational study including 916 patients with AVB falling under the next categories: AH (n = 99), ALD cirrhosis actively drinking (d-ALD) (n = 285), ALD cirrhosis abstinent from alcohol (a-ALD) (n = 227) and viral cirrhosis (n = 305). We used a Cox proportional hazards model to calculate adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of death adjusted by MELD. RESULTS: The prevalence of AH was 16% considering only ALD patients. AH patients exhibited more complications. Forty-two days transplant-free survival was worse among AH, but statistical differences were only observed between AH and d-ALD groups (84 vs. 93%; p = 0.005), when adjusted by MELD no differences were observed between AH and the other groups. At one-year, survival of AH patients (72.7%) was similar to the other groups; when adjusted by MELD mortality HR was better in AH compared to a-ALD (0.48; 0.29-0.8, p = 0.004). Finally, active drinkers who remained abstinent presented better survival, independently of having AH. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to expected, AH patients with AVB present no worse one-year survival than other patients with different alcohol-related phenotypes or viral cirrhosis. Abstinence influences long-term survival and could explain these counterintuitive results.

Pregnancy outcomes in patients with portal cavernoma: A case series study.

OBJECTIVE: Non-cirrhotic portal vein cavernoma (PVC) is a cause of portal hypertension (PH) frequently affecting women of childbearing age. Cavernous transformation of the portal vein is frequently associated with prothrombotic disorders and often entails multiple hemodynamic changes, porto-collateral shunt development and thrombopenia, all of which can affect the course of pregnancy. Our aim was to evaluate the risk of PH-related complications and pregnancy outcomes in patients with PVC. METHODS: Retrospective case series study of patients with PVC undergoing pregnancy in a tertiary care hospital. RESULTS: Eight pregnancies fulfilled the eligibility criteria. All patients had a predisposing factor for PVC. One episode of variceal bleeding was reported at week 28. Six cesarean sections were scheduled to avoid labor while two urgent surgeries were indicated due to fetal distress and intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR). In all but one case, anticoagulation was prescribed after delivery. No hemorrhagic or thrombotic complications were reported. There were four cases of IUGR with no case of miscarriage or stillbirth. CONCLUSION: Pregnancy in patients with PVC has an overall favorable outcome albeit a higher risk of PH-derived complications, and IUGR may be expected. Hence, PVC must not be considered a contraindication for pregnancy although larger prospective studies are necessary.

Long-term daily hydrometeorological drought indices, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration for ICOS sites.

Eddy covariance sites are ideally suited for the study of extreme events on ecosystems as they allow the exchange of trace gases and energy fluxes between ecosystems and the lower atmosphere to be directly measured on a continuous basis. However, standardized definitions of hydroclimatic extremes are needed to render studies of extreme events comparable across sites. This requires longer datasets than are available from on-site measurements in order to capture the full range of climatic variability. We present a dataset of drought indices based on precipitation (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI), atmospheric water balance (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI), and soil moisture (Standardized Soil Moisture Index, SSMI) for 101 ecosystem sites from the Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) with daily temporal resolution from 1950 to 2021. Additionally, we provide simulated soil moisture and evapotranspiration for each site from the Mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM). These could be utilised for gap-filling or long-term research, among other applications. We validate our data set with measurements from ICOS and discuss potential research avenues.

CT-derived liver and spleen volume accurately diagnose clinically significant portal hypertension in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

Background & Aims: Clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) is a landmark in the natural history of cirrhosis, influencing clinical decisions in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Previous small series suggested that splanchnic volume measurements may predict portal hypertension. We aimed to evaluate whether volumetry obtained by standard multidetector computerised tomography (MDCT) can predict CSPH in patients with HCC. Methods: We included 175 patients with HCC, referred for hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) evaluation, in whom contemporary MDCT was available. Liver volume, spleen volume (SV) and liver segmental volume ratio (LSVR: volume of the segments I-III/volume of the segments IV-VIII) were calculated semi-automatically from MDCT. Other non-invasive tests (NITs) were also employed. Results: Volume parameters could be measured in almost 100% of cases with an excellent inter-observer agreement (intraclass correlation coefficient >0.950). SV and LSVR were independently associated with CSPH (HVPG ≥10 mmHg) and did not interact with aetiology. The volume Index (VI), calculated as the product of SV and LSVR, predicted CSPH (AUC 0.83; 95% CI 0.77-0.89). Similar results were observed in an external cohort (n = 23) (AUC 0.87; 95% CI 0.69-1.00). Setting a sensitivity and specificity of 98%, VI could have avoided 35.9% of HVPG measurements. The accuracy of VI was similar to that of other NITs. VI also accurately predicted HVPG greater than 12, 14, 16 and 18 mmHg (AUC 0.81 [95% CI 0.74-0.88], 0.84 [95% CI 0.77-0.91], 0.85 [95% CI 0.77-0.92] and 0.87 [95% CI 0.79-0.94], respectively). Conclusions: Quantification of liver and spleen volumes by MDCT is a simple, accurate and reliable method of CSPH estimation in patients with compensated cirrhosis and HCC. Impact and implications: An increase in portal pressure strongly impacts outcomes after surgery in patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Direct measurement through hepatic vein catheterization remains the reference standard for portal pressure assessment, but its invasiveness limits its application. Therefore, we evaluated the ability of CT scan-based liver and spleen volume measurements to predict portal hypertension in patients with HCC. Our results indicate that the newly described index, based on quantification of liver and spleen volume, accurately predicts portal hypertension. These results suggest that a single imaging test may be used to diagnose and stage HCC, while providing an accurate estimation of portal hypertension, thus helping to stratify surgical risks.

Shifts in flood generation processes exacerbate regional flood anomalies in Europe.

Anomalies in the frequency of river floods, i.e., flood-rich or -poor periods, cause biases in flood risk estimates and thus make climate adaptation measures less efficient. While observations have recently confirmed the presence of flood anomalies in Europe, their exact causes are not clear. Here we analyse streamflow and climate observations during 1960-2010 to show that shifts in flood generation processes contribute more to the occurrence of regional flood anomalies than changes in extreme rainfall. A shift from rain on dry soil to rain on wet soil events by 5% increased the frequency of flood-rich periods in the Atlantic region, and an opposite shift in the Mediterranean region increased the frequency of flood-poor periods, but will likely make singular extreme floods occur more often. Flood anomalies driven by changing flood generation processes in Europe may further intensify in a warming climate and should be considered in flood estimation and management.

Evaluation of the definition of hyperdynamic circulation in patients with cirrhosis and ascites.

The aim of this study was to evaluate potential criteria for defining hyperdynamic circulation in patients with cirrhosis according to the severity of ascites and its association with the activation of vasoactive systems and markers of systemic inflammation. Cross-sectional study of patients with cirrhosis and right heart catheter measurement from two different academic centers. We evaluated systemic vascular resistance (SVR)/cardiac output (CO) according to ascites severity. The first substudy evaluated the possible definition, the second validated the findings, and the third evaluated the possible mechanisms. Comparisons were performed by means of t test, Mann-Whitney U test, and analysis of variance. Finally, linear regression curves were adjusted to evaluate the relationship between CO and SVR according to the severity of ascites and compensated or decompensated stage of cirrhosis. The study included 721 patients (substudy 1, n = 437; substudy 2, n = 197; substudy 3, n = 87). Hyperdynamic circulation (HC), defined by absolute cutoffs, had no association with the presence or severity of ascites in the first two cohorts. No association was observed between HC with renin, aldosterone, or markers of bacterial translocation. Comparison of linear regression curves showed a shift of the CO-SVR relationship to the left in patients with refractory ascites (p < 0.001) compared to patients without ascites as well as to patients with decompensated cirrhosis (p = 0.002). Conclusion: HC according to the traditional concept of high CO and low SVR is not always present in ascites. Evaluation of the CO-SVR relationship according to the severity of ascites shows a shift to the left, suggesting that the presence of HC would be defined by this shift, independent of absolute values.

Non-invasive tests for clinically significant portal hypertension after HCV cure.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-invasive tests (NITs) for clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH; hepatic venous pressure gradient [HVPG] ≥10 mmHg) have predominantly been studied in patients with active HCV infection. Investigations after HCV cure are limited and have yielded conflicting results. We conducted a pooled analysis to determine the diagnostic/prognostic utility of liver stiffness measurement (LSM)/platelet count (PLT) in this setting. METHODS: A total of 418 patients with pre-treatment HVPG ≥6 mmHg who achieved sustained virological response (SVR) and underwent post-treatment HVPG measurement were assessed, of whom 324 (HVPG/NIT-cohort) also had paired data on pre-/post-treatment LSM/PLT. The derived LSM/PLT criteria were then validated against the direct endpoint decompensation in 755 patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) with SVR (cACLD-validation-cohort). RESULTS: HVPG/NIT-cohort: Among patients with cACLD, the pre-/post-treatment prevalence of CSPH was 80%/54%. The correlation between LSM/HVPG increased from pre- to post-treatment (r = 0.45 vs. 0.60), while that of PLT/HVPG remained unchanged. For given LSM/PLT values, HVPG tended to be lower post- vs. pre-treatment, indicating the need for dedicated algorithms. Combining post-treatment LSM/PLT yielded a high diagnostic accuracy for post-treatment CSPH in cACLD (AUC 0.884; 95% CI 0.843-0.926). Post-treatment LSM <12 kPa & PLT >150 G/L excluded CSPH (sensitivity: 99.2%), while LSM ≥25 kPa was highly specific for CSPH (93.6%). cACLD-validation-cohort: the 3-year decompensation risk was 0% in the 42.5% of patients who met the LSM <12 kPa & PLT >150 G/L criteria. In patients with post-treatment LSM ≥25 kPa (prevalence: 16.8%), the 3-year decompensation risk was 9.6%, while it was 1.3% in those meeting none of the above criteria (prevalence: 40.7%). CONCLUSIONS: NITs can estimate the probability of CSPH after HCV cure and predict clinical outcomes. Patients with cACLD but LSM <12 kPa & PLT>150 G/L may be discharged from portal hypertension surveillance if no co-factors are present, while patients with LSM ≥25 kPa require surveillance/treatment. LAY SUMMARY: Measurement of liver stiffness by a specific ultrasound device and platelet count (a simple blood test) are broadly used for the non-invasive diagnosis of increased blood pressure in the veins leading to the liver, which drives the development of complications in patients with advanced liver disease. The results of our pooled analysis refute previous concerns that these tests are less accurate after the cure of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We have developed diagnostic criteria that facilitate personalized management after HCV cure and allow for a de-escalation of care in a high proportion of patients, thereby decreasing disease burden.

Negative impact of HIV infection on broad-spectrum anti-HCV neutralizing antibody titers in HCV-infected patients with advanced HCV-related cirrhosis.

OBJECTIVES: The current study aimed to assess the impact of HIV on the production of anti-HCV antibodies in HCV-infected individuals with advanced HCV-related cirrhosis before and 36 weeks after the sustained virological response (SVR) induced by direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) therapy. METHODS: Prospective study on 62 patients (50 HIV/HCV-coinfected and 12 HCV-monoinfected). Plasma anti-E2 and HCV-nAbs were determined respectively by ELISA and microneutralization assays. RESULTS: At baseline, the HCV-group had higher anti-E2 levels against Gt1a (p = 0.012), Gt1b (p = 0.023), and Gt4a (p = 0.005) than the HIV/HCV-group. After SVR, anti-E2 titers against Gt1a (p < 0.001), Gt1b (p = 0.001), and Gt4a (p = 0.042) were also higher in the HCV-group than HIV/HCV-group. At 36 weeks post-SVR, plasma anti-E2 titers decreased between 1.3 and 1.9-fold in the HIV/HCV-group (p < 0.001) and between 1.5 and 1.8-fold in the HCV-group (p ≤ 0.001). At baseline, the HCV-group had higher titers of HCV-nAbs against Gt1a (p = 0.022), Gt1b (p = 0.002), Gt2a (p < 0.001), and Gt4a (p < 0.001) than the HIV/HCV-group. After SVR, HCV-nAbs titers against Gt1a (p = 0.014), Gt1b (p < 0.001), Gt2a (p = 0.002), and Gt4a (p = 0.004) were also higher in the HCV-group. At 36 weeks post-SVR, HCV-nAbs decreased between 2.6 and 4.1-fold in the HIV/HCV-group (p < 0.001) and between 1.9 and 4.0-fold in the HCV-group (p ≤ 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: HIV/HCV-coinfected patients produced lower levels of broad-spectrum anti-HCV antibodies than HCV-monoinfected patients.

Hepatitis C eradication improves cognitive function in patients with or without cirrhosis: A prospective real-life study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is associated with neuropsychiatric disturbances that impact on functioning and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Reversibility at different liver disease stages is unknown, particularly in cirrhosis. We aimed to evaluate cognition, functioning, and HRQoL following HCV eradication at different liver disease stages. METHODS: A random sample (n = 152) of consecutive patients treated with direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) between April 2015 and March 2017 were included. A comprehensive neuropsychological assessment, functioning and HRQoL questionnaires were applied at baseline, and 12 and 48 weeks after the end of antivirals. RESULTS: One-hundred thirty-five patients who achieved virological response completed the follow-up, of whom 44 had cirrhosis (27% decompensated). Twenty-one percent had cognitive impairment before starting DAAs (34.1% cirrhotic vs. 14.4% noncirrhotic, p < 0.011). Viral eradication was associated with a decrease in cognitive impairment to 23% of cirrhotic and 6% of noncirrhotic patients (p < 0.05). Interestingly, older patients (B = 0.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.03-0.19) with baseline cognitive impairment (B = 3.58, 95% CI = 1.54-5.62) were those with higher cognitive benefit, regardless of liver disease. Persistent cognitive impairment was associated with having higher cardiovascular risk, cirrhosis, lower education, and higher anxiety and depression scores. Functioning and HRQoL also improved after eradication but remained worse in the cirrhotic group. CONCLUSIONS: Viral eradication decreases the prevalence of cognitive impairment and improves functioning and HRQoL. Patients with lower brain reserve (older patients) and baseline cognitive impairment may benefit the most. Identification and treatment of HCV patients through screening programs may reduce the burden of cognitive disturbances beyond the prevention of liver disease progression.

Blood microbiome is associated with changes in portal hypertension after successful direct-acting antiviral therapy in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with a significant decrease in hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) have a considerable reduction of liver complications and higher survival after HCV eradication. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association between the baseline blood microbiome and the changes in HVPG after successful direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis. METHODS: We performed a prospective study in 32 cirrhotic patients (21 HIV positive) with clinically significant portal hypertension (HVPG ≥10 mmHg). Patients were assessed at baseline and 48 weeks after HCV treatment completion. The clinical endpoint was a decrease in HVPG of ≥20% or HVPG <12 mmHg at the end of follow-up. Bacterial 16S ribosomal DNA was sequenced using MiSeq Illumina technology, inflammatory plasma biomarkers were investigated using ProcartaPlex immunoassays and the metabolome was investigated using GC-MS. RESULTS: During the follow-up, 47% of patients reached the clinical endpoint. At baseline, those patients had a higher relative abundance of Corynebacteriales and Diplorickettsiales order, Diplorickettsiaceae family, Corynebacterium and Aquicella genus and Undibacterium parvum species organisms and a lower relative abundance of Oceanospirillales and Rhodospirillales order, Halomonadaceae family and Massilia genus organisms compared with those who did not achieve the clinical endpoint according to the LEfSe algorithm. Corynebacteriales and Massilia were consistently found within the 10 bacterial taxa with the highest differential abundance between groups. Additionally, the relative abundance of the Corynebacteriales order was inversely correlated with IFN-γ, IL-17A and TNF-α levels and the Massilia genus with glycerol and lauric acid. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline-specific bacterial taxa are related to an HVPG decrease in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis after successful DAA therapy.

Automatic Regionalization of Model Parameters for Hydrological Models.

Parameter estimation is one of the most challenging tasks in large-scale distributed modeling, because of the high dimensionality of the parameter space. Relating model parameters to catchment/landscape characteristics reduces the number of parameters, enhances physical realism, and allows the transfer of hydrological model parameters in time and space. This study presents the first large-scale application of automatic parameter transfer function (TF) estimation for a complex hydrological model. The Function Space Optimization (FSO) method can automatically estimate TF structures and coefficients for distributed models. We apply FSO to the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM, mhm-ufz.org), which is the only available distributed model that includes a priori defined TFs for all its parameters. FSO is used to estimate new TFs for the parameters "saturated hydraulic conductivity" and "field capacity," which both influence a range of hydrological processes. The setup of mHM from a previous study serves as a benchmark. The estimated TFs resulted in predictions in 222 validation basins with a median NSE of 0.68, showing that even with 5 years of calibration data, high performance in ungauged basins can be achieved. The performance is similar to the benchmark results, showing that the automatic TFs can achieve comparable results to TFs that were developed over years using expert knowledge. In summary, the findings present a step toward automatic TF estimation of model parameters for distributed models.