Examining the association between HIV prevalence and socioeconomic factors among young people in Zambia: Do neighbourhood contextual effects play a role?

BACKGROUND: The study examined the association between HIV infection and individual and neighbourhood-level socioeconomic factors in Zambia. METHODS: We used multilevel mixed effects logistic regression to examine the association of individual and neighbourhood level variables on HIV prevalence based on data from the 2013-14 and 2018 Zambia Demographic and Health Surveys, population-based cross-sectional surveys. The analysis was restricted to young people (15-24 years) with HIV serostatus results (n = 11,751 and n = 10,154). HIV serostatus was the outcome variable and socioeconomic status was measured by wealth, education and employment. RESULTS: Overall, at individual level, education was associated with reduced odds of HIV infection among young women and men. Conversely, relative wealth was generally associated with increased odds of infection for both young women and men. Young, employed men were at reduced odds of HIV infection than the unemployed. Living in neighbourhoods with higher average level of education was associated with higher odds of HIV infection. In 2013-14, 13% and 11% of the variation in HIV infection among young men and women was attributed to neighbourhoods, while 20% and 11% variation was attributed to neighbourhoods in 2018. Inclusion of individual and neighbourhood variables in the full regression model accounted for 65.7% and 59.5% of explained variance in 2013-14 and 64.6% and 44.3% in 2018, for women and men, respectively. This reduced unexplained variance by an average of 56% in 2013-14 and 29% in 2018. CONCLUSION: We found that HIV infection among young people in Zambia is more strongly associated with individual-level socioeconomic factors compared to neighbourhood factors. Individual-level education remains an important socioeconomic factor associated with reduced odds of HIV infection. This suggests that the HIV response in Zambia should still focus on individual level prevention strategies.

Community perspectives on randomisation and fairness in a cluster randomised controlled trial in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: One important ethical issue in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) is randomisation. Relatively little is known about how participating individuals and communities understand and perceive central aspects of randomisation such as equality, fairness, transparency and accountability in community-based trials. The aim of this study was to understand and explore study communities' perspectives of the randomisation process in a cluster RCT in rural Zambia studying the effectiveness of different support packages for adolescent girls on early childbearing. METHODS: In this explorative study, in-depth semi-structured interviews were carried out in 2018 with 14 individuals who took part in the randomisation process of the Research Initiative to Support the Empowerment of Girls (RISE) project in 2016 and two traditional leaders. Two of the districts where the trial is implemented were purposively selected. Interviews were audio recorded and fully transcribed. Data were analysed by coding and describing emergent themes. RESULTS: The understanding of the randomisation process varied. Some respondents understood that randomisation was conducted for research purposes, but most of them did not. They had trouble distinguishing research and aid. Generally, respondents perceived the randomisation process as transparent and fair. However, people thought that there should not have been a "lottery" because they wanted all schools to receive equal or balanced benefits of the interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Randomisation was misunderstood by most respondents. Perceived procedural fairness was easier to realize than substantive fairness. Researchers working on Cluster Randomised Controlled Trials (CRCTs) should consider carefully how to explain randomisation.

Contrasting HIV prevalence trends among young women and men in Zambia in the past 12 years: data from demographic and health surveys 2002-2014.

BACKGROUND: The HIV epidemic remains a concern on the global health agenda, despite progress made in reducing incidence. Investigation of trends among young people is important for monitoring HIV incidence and informing programming. The study examined geographical and sub-population differences in HIV prevalence trends among young people aged 15-24 years in Zambia. METHODS: This study analysed data from Zambia Demographic and Health Surveys (ZDHSs) that were conducted in 2001-2, 2007, and 2013-14. A two-stage cluster stratified sampling procedure was used to select samples of 8050, 7969, and 18,052 for the three surveys, respectively. Young people (15-24 years) with known HIV status were selected for analysis. The outcome variable was HIV status. Log binomial regression analysis of generalised linear models was used to test for trends. RESULTS: Overall HIV prevalence declined over the period 2001-2 to 2013-14 among women and men aged 15-49 years (17.8 and 12.9% to 15.1 and 11.3%, respectively). There was, however, an increase in HIV prevalence among urban young men over this period, from 3.7% in 2001-2 to 7.3% in 2013-14 (aRR 2.17, 95% CI 0.99-4.75), and, in rural areas, from 2.6 to 3.6% (aRR 1.46, 95% CI 0.78-2.75). In contrast, HIV prevalence among women declined over the same period of time. In urban areas, HIV prevalence among women declined from 15.2 to 10.7% (aRR 0.66, 95% CI 0.53-0.93), while in rural areas it declined from 8.2 to 4.8% (aRR 0.41, 95% CI 0.59-0.85). In addition, there was a narrowing gender gap in terms of HIV infection, as the prevalence ratio of females to males declined from 4.2 and 3.1 to 1.5 and 1.3, in urban and rural areas, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in HIV prevalence among urban young men over the past 12 years, contrasting declining trends among young women in both urban and rural populations, suggests differential effects of prevention efforts. Furthermore, findings that Zambia's overall national HIV prevalence decline masks some striking sex and rural/urban differentials, indicate the need for reconsidering the prevention efforts for young urban men.

Sex Differences in HIV Prevalence Persist over Time: Evidence from 18 Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine changes over time in the female: male HIV prevalence ratio in 18 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, overall and when stratified by area of residence, educational attainment and marital status. METHODOLOGY: We used data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, which are nationally representative household surveys. By using data from 18 countries with at least two survey rounds with HIV testing, and dividing the countries into three regions (Western/Central, Eastern and Southern) we were able to examine cross-country and regional changes in the female: male HIV prevalence ratio over time. Logistic regression was used to estimate female: male HIV prevalence ratios in urban versus rural areas and for different categories of education and marital status. To assess changes over time, we compared the confidence intervals of the prevalence ratios. RESULTS: The female: male HIV prevalence ratio was above one in all countries in at least one survey round for both ages 15-24 years and 25-49 years. In 13 out of 18 countries the prevalence ratio was higher for the younger age group compared to the age group 25-49 years (3 significant) and this difference in prevalence ratios between the age groups did not change over time. Overall, there was a higher frequency of increasing than decreasing prevalence ratios. The gender disparity was greater among those who were married/living together than among the never-married, and over time, the ratio was more stable among the married/living together. The study found no clear differential changes by education. CONCLUSION: Women continue to carry the greater burden of HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa and there is no clear pattern of change in the gap between men and women as the direction and magnitude of change in the prevalence ratios varied greatly.

The seven Cs of the high acceptability of home-based VCT: results from a mixed methods approach in Zambia.

HIV testing and counselling is a critical gateway to prevention and treatment. Yet, coverage remains insufficient, few couples are tested together and gender differences in access exist. We used an embedded mixed methods approach to investigate possible explanations for the high acceptance of home-based voluntary HIV counselling and testing (HB-VCT) in a pair-matched cluster-randomized trial in Zambia. A baseline survey included 1694 individuals in 36 clusters. Adults in 18 intervention clusters were offered HB-VCT by lay counsellors. Standard testing services were available in both trial arms. After the completion of the intervention, a follow-up survey was conducted in all trial clusters. In addition, 21 in-depth interviews and one focus group discussion were conducted with home-based VCT clients in the intervention arm. Informants favoured the convenience, confidentiality and credibility of HB-VCT. Counsellors were perceived as trustworthy owing to their closeness and conduct, and the consent process was experienced as convincing. Couple testing was selected by 70% of cohabiting couples and was experienced as beneficial by both genders. Levels of first-time testing (68% vs. 29%, p < 0.0001) and re-testing (94% vs. 74%, p < 0.0001) were higher in the intervention than in the control arm. Acceptance of HIV testing and counselling is dependent on stigma, trust and gender. The confidentiality of home-based VCT was essential for overcoming stigma-related barriers, and the selection of local counsellors was important to ensure trust in the services. The high level of couple counselling within HB-VCT may contribute to closing the gender gap in HIV testing, and has benefits for both genders and potentially for prevention of HIV transmission. The study demonstrates the feasibility of achieving high test coverage with an opt-in consent approach. The embedded qualitative component confirmed the high satisfaction with HB-VCT reported in the quantitative survey and was crucial to fully understand the intervention and its consequences.

Decline in sexual risk behaviours among young people in Zambia (2000-2009): do neighbourhood contextual effects play a role?

OBJECTIVE: This study examined trends in premarital sex, multiple partnership and condom use among young people (15-24 years) in Zambia from 2000 to 2009, and assessed the effects of individual and neighbourhood variables on these sexual behaviour indicators in 2000 and 2009. METHODOLOGY: We analysed data from the Zambia Sexual Behaviour Survey, conducted in 2000, 2003, 2005 and 2009. Multi-stage cluster sampling was used to select 385 neighbourhoods, giving a population sample of 6,500 young people. Using linear-by-linear trend test, trends in the three indicators were examined. Multilevel logistic regression was used to assess the effects of individual and neighbourhood variables on the indicators. RESULTS: Premarital sex among young people decreased significantly from 51 to 42% between 2000 and 2009. Multiple partnerships of men also decreased from 26 to 14% during the same period. The use of condoms by young people remained stable during this period. Full multilevel regression models explained 29 and 34% of the neighbourhood variance of premarital sex in 2000 and 2009. For multiple partnerships and condom use, the explained variance was 29 and 18% in 2000; whereas in 2009 it was extremely low. Urban residence and living in neighbourhood with higher average duration of residence were associated with low premarital sex and higher condom use. Living in a neighbourhood with higher average level of comprehensive knowledge of HIV was associated with less risky sexual behaviour. CONCLUSION: Declining trends in premarital sex and multiple partnerships are among the factors that might explain the decrease in HIV incidence in Zambia among young people. However, condom use among young people has remained low and stable over the years. The results also suggest that behaviour change interventions should take stock of the social context when introducing individual-level programmes because neighbourhood factors play a considerable role in influencing sexual behaviour.

Risk factors, healthcare-seeking and sexual behaviour among patients with genital ulcers in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Genital ulcers (GU) are associated with an increased risk of HIV transmission. Understanding risk factors for genital ulcers and sexual behaviour patterns after onset of symptoms and health seeking behaviour among GU-patients can provide useful information to aid design effective prevention strategies for genital ulcers. We investigated risk factors of self-reported GUs and care-seeking in the general population, and assessed GU patients regarding past care-seeking, recent sexual behaviour and partner awareness of the disease. METHODS: We analysed national data on genital ulcers from the 2007 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey, and data from a cross-sectional survey of genital ulcer patients from primary health care facilities in Lusaka, Zambia. RESULTS: The prevalence of GU in 2007 in the general population of Lusaka was 3.6%. Important predictors for genital ulcers were age 25-29 years, being widowed/separated/divorced and having a high number of life-time sexual partners. No differences in care-seeking were observed by residence, wealth and gender, and 60% of the respondents sought care from public health facilities. Among patients with GUs in Lusaka, 14% sought care >2 weeks after symptom onset. Forty-two percent were not aware of their HIV status, 57% reported sex after onset of symptoms and only 15% reported consistent condom use. CONCLUSIONS: Low awareness of HIV status despite high probability of being infected and low condom use after onset of genital ulcer symptoms leads to a high potential for transmission to sexual partners. This, combined with the fact that many patients with GUs delayed seeking care, shows a need for awareness campaigns about GUs and the importance of abstinence or use of condoms when experiencing such symptoms.

Factors affecting voluntary HIV counselling and testing among men in Ethiopia: a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Voluntary HIV counselling and testing (VCT) is one of the key strategies in the HIV/AIDS prevention and control programmes in Ethiopia. However, utilization of this service among adults is very low. The aim of the present study was to investigate factors associated with VCT utilization among adult men since men are less likely than women to be offered and accept routine HIV testing. METHODS: The study utilized data from the Ethiopian Demographic Health Survey (EDHS) 2005, which is a cross-sectional survey conducted on a nationally representative sample. Using cluster sampling, 6,778 men aged 15-59 years were selected from all the eleven administrative regions in Ethiopia. Logistic regression was used to analyze potential factors associated with VCT utilization. RESULTS: Overall, 21.9% of urban men and 2.6% of rural men had ever tested for HIV through VCT and most of them had learned their HIV test result. Having no stigmatizing attitudes toward people living with HIV/AIDS was found to be strongly and positively associated with VCT utilization in both urban and rural strata. In rural areas HIV test rates were higher among younger men (aged ≤44 years) and those of higher socio-economic position (SEP). Among urban men, risky sexual behaviour was positively associated with VCT utilization whereas being Muslim was found to be inversely associated with utilization of VCT. Area of residence as well as SEP strongly affected men's level of stigmatizing attitudes toward people living with HIV/AIDS. CONCLUSIONS: VCT utilization among men in Ethiopia was low and affected by HIV/AIDS-related stigma and residence. In order to increase VCT acceptability, HIV/AIDS prevention and control programs in the country should focus on reducing HIV/AIDS-related stigma. Targeting rural men with low SEP should be given first priority when designing, expanding, and implementing VCT services in the country.

Fairness and legitimacy of decisions during delivery of malaria services and ITN interventions in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is the leading cause of morbidity and the second leading cause of mortality in Zambia. Perceptions of fairness and legitimacy of decisions relating to treatment of malaria cases within public health facilities and distribution of ITNs were assessed in a district in Zambia. The study was conducted within the framework of REsponse to ACcountable priority setting for Trust in health systems (REACT), a north-south collaborative action research study, which evaluates the Accountability for Reasonableness (AFR) approach to priority setting in Zambia, Tanzania and Kenya. METHODS: This paper is based on baseline in-depth interviews (IDIs) conducted with 38 decision-makers, who were involved in prioritization of malaria services and ITN distribution at district, facility and community levels in Zambia, one Focus Group Discussion (FGD) with District Health Management Team managers and eight FGDs with outpatients' attendees. Perceptions and attitudes of providers and users and practices of providers were systematized according to the four AFR conditions relevance, publicity, appeals and leadership. RESULTS: Conflicting criteria for judging fairness were used by decision-makers and patients. Decision-makers argued that there was fairness in delivery of malaria treatment and distribution of ITNs based on alleged excessive supply of free malaria medicines, subsidized ITNs, and presence of a qualified health-provider in every facility. Patients argued that there was unfairness due to differences in waiting time, distances to health facilities, erratic supply of ITNs, no responsive appeal mechanisms, inadequate access to malaria medicines, ITNs and health providers, and uncaring providers. Decision-makers only perceived government bodies and donors/NGOs to be legitimate stakeholders to involve during delivery. Patients found government bodies, patients, indigenous healers, chiefs and politicians to be legitimate stakeholders during both planning and delivery. CONCLUSION: Poor status of the AFR conditions of relevance, publicity, appeals and leadership corresponds well to the differing perceptions of fairness and unfairness among outpatient attendees and decision-makers. This may have been re-enforced by existing disagreements between the two groups regarding who the legitimate stakeholders to involve during service delivery were. Conflicts identified in this study could be resolved by promoting application of approaches such as AFR during priority setting in the district.

Prevalence and correlates of concurrent sexual partnerships in Zambia.

Concurrent partnerships may cause more rapid spread of HIV in a population. We examined how the prevalence of parallel relationships changed among men and women aged 15-49 in Zambia from 1998 to 2003 using data collected during the Sexual Behavior Surveys 1998, 2000, and 2003. Predictors of concurrent partnerships among men were studied by univariate and multivariate regression analyses. Thirteen percent of rural and 8% of urban men reported more than one ongoing relationship in 1998, and these proportions declined to 8% and 6%, respectively in 2003. The proportion of women reporting concurrent relationships was 0-2%. The most important predictors of concurrency were early sexual debut, being married, early marriage and absence from home. The reduction in concurrent sexual partnerships is consistent with reductions in other sexual risk behaviors found in other studies and may have contributed to the recently observed decline in HIV prevalence in Zambia.

Accountable priority setting for trust in health systems--the need for research into a new approach for strengthening sustainable health action in developing countries.

Despite multiple efforts to strengthen health systems in low and middle income countries, intended sustainable improvements in health outcomes have not been shown. To date most priority setting initiatives in health systems have mainly focused on technical approaches involving information derived from burden of disease statistics, cost effectiveness analysis, and published clinical trials. However, priority setting involves value-laden choices and these technical approaches do not equip decision-makers to address a broader range of relevant values - such as trust, equity, accountability and fairness - that are of concern to other partners and, not least, the populations concerned. A new focus for priority setting is needed.Accountability for Reasonableness (AFR) is an explicit ethical framework for legitimate and fair priority setting that provides guidance for decision-makers who must identify and consider the full range of relevant values. AFR consists of four conditions: i) relevance to the local setting, decided by agreed criteria; ii) publicizing priority-setting decisions and the reasons behind them; iii) the establishment of revisions/appeal mechanisms for challenging and revising decisions; iv) the provision of leadership to ensure that the first three conditions are met.REACT - "REsponse to ACcountable priority setting for Trust in health systems" is an EU-funded five-year intervention study started in 2006, which is testing the application and effects of the AFR approach in one district each in Kenya, Tanzania and Zambia. The objectives of REACT are to describe and evaluate district-level priority setting, to develop and implement improvement strategies guided by AFR and to measure their effect on quality, equity and trust indicators. Effects are monitored within selected disease and programme interventions and services and within human resources and health systems management. Qualitative and quantitative methods are being applied in an action research framework to examine the potential of AFR to support sustainable improvements to health systems performance.This paper reports on the project design and progress and argues that there is a high need for research into legitimate and fair priority setting to improve the knowledge base for achieving sustainable improvements in health outcomes.

Effects of neighbourhood-level educational attainment on HIV prevalence among young women in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Investigations of the association between socio-economic position indicators and HIV in East, Central and Southern Africa have chiefly focused on factors that pertain to individual-level characteristics. This study investigated the effect of neighbourhood educational attainment on HIV prevalence among young women in selected urban and rural areas in Zambia. METHODS: This study re-analysed data from a cross-sectional population survey conducted in Zambia in 2003. The analyses were restricted to women aged 15-24 years (n = 1295). Stratified random cluster sampling was used to select 10 urban and 10 rural clusters. A measure for neighbourhood-level educational attainment was constructed by aggregating individual-level years-in-school. Multi-level mixed effects regression models were run to examine the neighbourhood-level educational effect on HIV prevalence after adjusting for individual-level underlying variables (education, currently a student, marital status) and selected proximate determinants (ever given birth, sexual activity, lifetime sexual partners). RESULTS: HIV prevalence among young women aged 15-24 years was 12.5% in the urban and 6.8% in the rural clusters. Neighbourhood educational attainment was found to be a strong determinant of HIV infection in both urban and rural population, i.e. HIV prevalence decreased substantially by increasing level of neighbourhood education. The likelihood of infection in low vs. high educational attainment of neighbourhoods was 3.4 times among rural women and 1.8 times higher among the urban women after adjusting for age and other individual-level underlying variables, including education. However, the association was not significant for urban young women after this adjustment. After adjusting for level of education in the neighbourhood, the effect of the individual-level education differed by residence, i.e. a strong protective effect among urban women whereas tending to be a risk factor among rural women. CONCLUSION: The findings suggested structural effects on HIV prevalence. Future research should include more detailed mapping of neighbourhood factors of relevance to HIV transmission as part of the effort to better understand the causal mechanisms involved.

Lost opportunities in HIV prevention: programmes miss places where exposures are highest.

BACKGROUND: Efforts at HIV prevention that focus on high risk places might be more effective and less stigmatizing than those targeting high risk groups. The objective of the present study was to assess risk behaviour patterns, signs of current preventive interventions and apparent gaps in places where the risk of HIV transmission is high and in communities with high HIV prevalence. METHODS: The PLACE method was used to collect data. Inhabitants of selected communities in Lusaka and Livingstone were interviewed about where people met new sexual partners. Signs of HIV preventive activities in these places were recorded. At selected venues, people were interviewed about their sexual behaviour. Peer educators and staff of NGOs were also interviewed. RESULTS: The places identified were mostly bars, restaurants or sherbeens, and fewer than 20% reported any HIV preventive activity such as meetings, pamphlets or posters. In 43% of places in Livingstone and 26% in Lusaka, condoms were never available. There were few active peer educators. Among the 432 persons in Lusaka and 676 in Livingstone who were invited for interview about sexual behaviour, consistent condom use was relatively high in Lusaka (77%) but low in Livingstone (44% of men and 34% of women). Having no condom available was the most common reason for not using one. Condom use in Livingstone was higher among individuals socializing in places where condoms always were available. CONCLUSION: In the places studied we found a high prevalence of behaviours with a high potential for HIV transmission but few signs of HIV preventive interventions. Covering the gaps in prevention in these high exposure places should be given the highest priority.

Associations between sexual behaviour change in young people and decline in HIV prevalence in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that HIV prevalence amongst young Zambians has declined recently, especially in higher-education groups. We studied trends in key sexual behaviour indicators among 15-24 year-olds from 1995 to 2003, including the associations between sexual behaviour change and education. METHODS: The data stem from a series of three population-based surveys conducted in 1995 (n = 1720), 1999 (n = 1946) and 2003 (n = 2637). Logistic regression and Extended Mantel Haenszel Chi Square for linear trends were used to compare the three surveys. RESULTS: Men and lower-education groups reported more than one sexual partner in the year immediately prior to the survey more frequently than did women and higher-education groups (p < 0.01), but these proportions declined regardless of sex and residence. Substantial delays in child-bearing were observed, particularly among higher-education and urban respondents. Condom use at least for casual sexual intercourse increased from 1995 to 2003; the level was highest among urban and higher-education groups. The number of women reporting frequent dry sex using traditional agents fell during the period. Participants from the rural area and those with less education reported more sexual experience than urban and higher-education participants in 2003. The reported number of sexual partners during the year immediately prior to the survey was a factor that reduced the association between HIV and survey times among sexually active young urban men and women. CONCLUSION: High risk behaviours clearly decreased, especially in higher-educated and urban groups, and there is a probable association here with the decline in HIV prevalence in the study population. Fewer sexual partners and condom use were among the core factors involved for both sexes; and for women a further factor was delayed child-bearing.

Steep HIV prevalence declines among young people in selected Zambian communities: population-based observations (1995-2003).

BACKGROUND: Understanding the epidemiological HIV context is critical in building effective setting-specific preventive strategies. We examined HIV prevalence patterns in selected communities of men and women aged 15-59 years in Zambia. METHODS: Population-based HIV surveys in 1995 (n = 3158), 1999 (n = 3731) and 2003 (n = 4751) were conducted in selected communities using probability proportional to size stratified random-cluster sampling. Multivariate logistic regression and trend analyses were stratified by residence, sex and age group. Absence, <30% in men and <15% in women in all rounds, was the most important cause of non-response. Saliva was used for HIV testing, and refusal was <10%. RESULTS: Among rural groups aged 15-24 years, prevalence declined by 59.2% (15.7% to 6.4%, P < 0.001) in females and by 44.6% (5.6% to 3.1%, P < 0.001) in males. In age-group 15-49 years, declines were less than 25%. In the urban groups aged 15-24, prevalence declined by 47% (23.4% to 12.4%, P < 0.001) among females and 57.3% (7.5% to 3.2%, P = 0.001) among males but were 32% and 27% in men and women aged 15-49, respectively. Higher educated young people in 2003 had lower odds of infection than in 1995 in both urban [men: AOR 0.29(95% CI 0.14-0.60); women: AOR 0.38(95% CI 0.19-0.79)] and rural groups [men: AOR 0.16(95% CI 0.11-0.25), women: AOR 0.10(95% CI 0.01-7.34)]. Although higher mobility was associated with increased likelihood of infection in men overall, AOR, 1.71(95% CI 1.34-2.19), prevalence declined in mobile groups also (OR 0.52 95% CI 0.31-0.88). In parallel, urban young people with > or =11 school years were more likely to use condoms during the last casual sex (OR 2.96 95% CI 1.93-4.52) and report less number of casual sexual partners (AOR 0.33 95% CI 0.19-0.56) in the last twelve months than lower educated groups. CONCLUSION: Steep HIV prevalence declines in young people, suggesting continuing declining incidence, were masked by modest overall declines. The concentration of declines in higher educated groups suggests a plausible association with behavioural change.

Antenatal clinic-based HIV prevalence in Zambia: declining trends but sharp local contrasts in young women.

OBJECTIVES: To describe regional variation in human immunodefffeciency virus (HIV) prevalence trends in the period 1994-2002 and to assess the effects on prevalence trends of residence, educational level and age, and potential interaction between these variables. METHODS: The data were from the national HIV sentinel surveillance system comprising information collected using interviews and unlinked anonymous testing of blood among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in 22 sites in 1994, 1998 and 2002. RESULTS: There was a decline in HIV prevalence in the age group 15-24 years in the period 1994-2002 both in rural (by 11%) and urban (by 26%) areas. The decline was strongest among highly educated women. However, this overall decline masked striking differences at community (site) levels with clearly declining epidemics in many sites contrasted by increasing epidemics in some and stability in others. Urban/rural residence, age, educational attainment, marital status and parity were factors closely associated with HIV infection. Having born many children was associated with lower risk of being infected by HIV, even in the age group 15-24. CONCLUSIONS: The HIV prevalence decline in young women is likely to reflect a drop in incidence during the period. However, there were sharp geographical contrasts in trends. Such local contrasts probably indicate differences in effectiveness of preventive interventions. Understanding factors and mechanisms explaining the differences will be of critical importance to better guide preventive interventions.

Marked HIV prevalence declines in higher educated young people: evidence from population-based surveys (1995-2003) in Zambia.

OBJECTIVES: Higher educational attainment has been associated with a greater risk of HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated change over time in HIV prevalence by educational attainment in the general population. METHODS: The data stem from serial population-based HIV surveys conducted in selected urban and rural communities in 1995 (n = 2989), 1999 (n = 3506) and 2003 (n = 4442). Analyses were stratified by residence, sex and age-group. Logistic regression was used to estimate age-adjusted odds ratio of HIV between low (< or = 4 school years) and higher education (> or = 8 years) for the rural population and between low (< or = 7 school years) and higher education (> or = 11 years) for the urban population. RESULTS: There was a universal shift towards reduced risk of HIV infection in groups with higher than lower education in both sexes among urban young people [odds ratio (OR), 0.20; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.05-0.73] in men and (OR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.15-0.72) in women. A similar pattern was observed in rural young men (OR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.05-0.59) but was less prominent and not statistically significant in rural women. In age 25-49 years, higher educated urban men had reduced risk in 2003 (OR, 0.43; 95%CI, 0.26-0.72) but this was less prominent in women. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggested a shift in the association between educational attainment and HIV infection between 1995 and 2003. The most convincing sign was the risk reduction among more educated younger groups where most infections can be assumed to be recent. The changes in older groups are probably largely influenced by differential mortality rates. The stable risk among groups with lower education might also indicate limitations in past preventive efforts.