Impact of weighting on the association between sociodemographic characteristics, health behaviours and cancer, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in the Australian 45 and Up Study.

BACKGROUND: Weighting can improve study estimate representativeness. We examined the impact of weighting on associations between participants' characteristics and cancer, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in the Australian 45 and Up Study cohort. METHODS: Raking weighted cohort data to the 2006 Australian population for seven sociodemographic characteristics. Deaths were ascertained via linkage to routinely collected data. Cox's proportional hazards regression quantified associations between 11 sociodemographic and health characteristics and cancer, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The ratios of hazard ratios (RHRs) compared unweighted and weighted estimates. RESULTS: Among 195,052 included participants (median follow-up 11.4 years), there were 7200 cancer, 5912 cardiovascular and 21,840 all-cause deaths. Overall, 102/111 (91.9%) weighted HRs did not differ significantly from unweighted HRs (100%, 86.5% and 89.2% of 37 HRs for cancer, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, respectively). Significant differences included a somewhat stronger association between single/widowed/divorced (versus married/de-facto) and cardiovascular mortality (unweighted HR=1.25 (95%CI:1.18-1.32), weighted HR=1.33 (95%CI:1.24-1.42), RHR=1.06 (95%CI:1.02-1.11)); and between no school certificate/qualification (versus university degree) and all-cause mortality (unweighted HR=1.21 (95%CI:1.15-1.27), weighted HR=1.28 (95%CI:1.19-1.38), RHR=1.06 (95%CI:1.03-1.10)). CONCLUSION: Our results support the generalisability of most estimates of associations in the 45 and Up Study, particularly in relation to cancer mortality. Slight distortion of a few associations with cardiovascular or all-cause mortality were observed.

The association between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality: An umbrella review of systematic reviews using lifetime abstainers or low-volume drinkers as a reference group.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Systematic reviews of the relationship between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality have reported different relative risk (RR) curves, possibly due to the choice of reference group. Results have varied from 'J-shaped' curves, where low-volume consumption is associated with reduced risk, to monotonically increased risk with increasing consumption. We summarised the evidence on alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality exclusively from systematic reviews using lifetime abstainers or low-volume/occasional drinkers as the reference group. METHODS: We conducted a systematic umbrella review of systematic reviews of the relationship between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality in prospective cohort studies using a reference group of lifetime abstainers or low-volume/occasional drinkers. Several databases (PubMed/Medline/Embase/PsycINFO/Cochrane Library) were searched to March 2022. Reviews were assessed for risk of bias, and those with reference groups containing former drinkers were excluded. RESULTS: From 2149 articles retrieved, 25 systematic reviews were identified, and five did not include former drinkers in the reference group. Four of the five included reviews had high risk of bias. Three reviews reported a J-shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality with significant decreased risk for low-volume drinking (RR range 0.84 to 0.95), while two reviews did not. The one review at low risk of bias reported monotonically increased risk with greater consumption (RRs = 1.02, 1.13, 1.33 and 1.52 for low-, medium-, high- and higher-volume drinking, respectively, compared with occasional drinking). All five reviews reported significantly increased risk with higher levels of alcohol consumption (RR range 1.28 to 3.70). Sub-group analyses were reported by sex and age; however, there were evidence gaps for many important factors. Conversely, 17 of 20 excluded systematic reviews reported decreased mortality risk for low-volume drinking. CONCLUSIONS: Over 70% of systematic reviews and meta-analyses published to March 2022 of all-cause mortality risk associated with alcohol consumption did not exclude former drinkers from the reference group and may therefore be biased by the 'sick-quitter effect'.

Global burden of 34 cancers among women in 2020 and projections to 2040: Population-based data from 185 countries/territories.

Globally women face inequality in cancer outcomes; for example, smaller improvements in life expectancy due to decreased cancer-related deaths than men (0.5 vs 0.8 years, 1981-2010). However, comprehensive global evidence on the burden of cancer among women (including by reproductive age spectrum) as well as disparities by region, remains limited. This study aimed to address these evidence gaps by considering 34 cancer types in 2020 and their projections for 2040. The cancer burden among women in 2020 was estimated using population-based data from 185 countries/territories sourced from GLOBOCAN. Mortality to Incidence Ratios (MIR), a proxy for survival, were estimated by dividing the age-standardised mortality rates by the age-standardised incidence rates. Demographic projections were performed to 2040. In 2020, there were an estimated 9.3 million cancer cases and 4.4 million cancer deaths globally. Projections showed an increase to 13.3 million (↑44%) and 7.1 million (↑60%) in 2040, respectively, with larger proportional increases in low- and middle-income countries. MIR among women was higher (poorer survival) in rare cancers and with increasing age. Countries with low Human Development Indexes (HDIs) had higher MIRs (69%) than countries with very high HDIs (30%). There was inequality in cancer incidence and mortality worldwide among women in 2020, which will further widen by 2040. Implementing cancer prevention efforts and providing basic cancer treatments by expanding universal health coverage through a human rights approach, expanding early screening opportunities and strengthening medical infrastructure are key to improving and ensuring equity in cancer control and outcomes.

Fifty-year forecasts of daily smoking prevalence: can Australia reach 5% by 2030?

OBJECTIVE: To compare 50-year forecasts of Australian tobacco smoking rates in relation to trends in smoking initiation and cessation and in relation to a national target of ≤5% adult daily prevalence by 2030. METHODS: A compartmental model of Australian population daily smoking, calibrated to the observed smoking status of 229 523 participants aged 20-99 years in 26 surveys (1962-2016) by age, sex and birth year (1910-1996), estimated smoking prevalence to 2066 using Australian Bureau of Statistics 50-year population predictions. Prevalence forecasts were compared across scenarios in which smoking initiation and cessation trends from 2017 were continued, kept constant or reversed. RESULTS: At the end of the observation period in 2016, model-estimated daily smoking prevalence was 13.7% (90% equal-tailed interval (EI) 13.4%-14.0%). When smoking initiation and cessation rates were held constant, daily smoking prevalence reached 5.2% (90% EI 4.9%-5.5%) after 50 years, in 2066. When initiation and cessation rates continued their trajectory downwards and upwards, respectively, daily smoking prevalence reached 5% by 2039 (90% EI 2037-2041). The greatest progress towards the 5% goal came from eliminating initiation among younger cohorts, with the target met by 2037 (90% EI 2036-2038) in the most optimistic scenario. Conversely, if initiation and cessation rates reversed to 2007 levels, estimated prevalence was 9.1% (90% EI 8.8%-9.4%) in 2066. CONCLUSION: A 5% adult daily smoking prevalence target cannot be achieved by the year 2030 based on current trends. Urgent investment in concerted strategies that prevent smoking initiation and facilitate cessation is necessary to achieve 5% prevalence by 2030.

Alcohol consumption and socioeconomic status associated with the risk of kidney cancer in a large Australian cohort study.

PURPOSE: Studies have shown an inverse association between alcohol consumption and kidney cancer risk. We postulate that this inverse association may be further influenced by other risk factors. METHODS: We used an Australian cohort, the 45 and Up Study, recruited between 2005 and 2009 to investigate the association between alcohol consumption, and other potential risk factors and kidney cancer incidence. The median follow-up was 5.4 years. RESULTS: Of the 267,357 participants aged ≤45 years living in New South Wales, 497 were diagnosed with kidney cancer. There was a significant inverse association between alcohol consumption and risk of kidney cancer (P = .027), and a significant inverse dose-response relationship (P = .011). There was a significant interaction between alcohol consumption and socioeconomic status (P interaction = .001). Participants residing in higher socioeconomic areas (the two most advantaged quintiles) who consumed 8-10 drinks or greater than 10 drinks per week, respectively, had a lower risk of kidney cancer compared to the group who consumed 1-4 drinks per week (hazard ratio (HR) 0.34, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.15-0.76, HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.31-0.83) with a dose-response trend of HR 0.62 (95% CI 0.42-0.93) per 7 drink increase in weekly alcohol consumption. CONCLUSIONS: There could be an inverse association between alcohol consumption and risk in those residents in higher socioeconomic areas.

Joint association of alcohol consumption and adiposity with alcohol- and obesity-related cancer in a population sample of 399,575 UK adults.

Obesity and alcohol consumption are both important modifiable risk factors for cancer. We examined the joint association of adiposity and alcohol consumption with alcohol- and obesity-related cancer incidence. This prospective cohort study included cancer-free UK Biobank participants aged 40-69 years. Alcohol consumption was categorised based on current UK guidelines into four groups. We defined three markers of adiposity: body fat percentage (BF %), waist circumference and BMI and categorised each into three groups. We derived a joint alcohol consumption and adiposity marker variable with twelve mutually exclusive categories. Among 399 575 participants, 17 617 developed alcohol-related cancer and 20 214 developed obesity-related cancer over an average follow-up of 11·8 (SD 0·9) years. We found relatively weak evidence of independent associations of alcohol consumption with cancer outcomes. However, the joint association analyses showed that across all adiposity markers, above guideline drinkers who were in the top two adiposity groups had elevated cancer incidence risk (e.g. HR for alcohol-related cancer was 1·53 (95 % CI (1·24, 1·90)) for within guideline drinkers and 1·61 (95 % CI (1·30, 2·00)) for above guideline drinkers among participants who were in the top tertile BF %. Regardless of alcohol consumption status, the risk of obesity-related cancer increased with higher adiposity in a dose-response manner within alcohol consumption categories. Our study provides guidance for public health priorities aimed at lowering population cancer risk via two key modifiable risk factors.

Updated cost-effectiveness analysis of lung cancer screening for Australia, capturing differences in the health economic impact of NELSON and NLST outcomes.

BACKGROUND: A national, lung cancer screening programme is under consideration in Australia, and we assessed cost-effectiveness using updated data and assumptions. METHODS: We estimated the cost-effectiveness of lung screening by applying screening parameters and outcomes from either the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) or the NEderlands-Leuvens Longkanker Screenings ONderzoek (NELSON) to Australian data on lung cancer risk, mortality, health-system costs, and smoking trends using a deterministic, multi-cohort model. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for a lifetime horizon. RESULTS: The ICER for lung screening compared to usual care in the NELSON-based scenario was AU$39,250 (95% CI $18,150-108,300) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY); lower than the NLST-based estimate (ICER = $76,300, 95% CI $41,750-236,500). In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, lung screening was cost-effective in 15%/60% of NELSON-like simulations, assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of $30,000/$50,000 per QALY, respectively, compared to 0.5%/6.7% for the NLST. ICERs were most sensitive to assumptions regarding the screening-related lung cancer mortality benefit and duration of benefit over time. The cost of screening had a larger impact on ICERs than the cost of treatment, even after quadrupling the 2006-2016 healthcare costs of stage IV lung cancer. DISCUSSION: Lung screening could be cost-effective in Australia, contingent on translating trial-like lung cancer mortality benefits to the clinic.

Tobacco smoking changes during the first pre-vaccination phases of the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Globally, tobacco smoking remains the largest preventable cause of premature death. The COVID-19 pandemic has forced nations to take unprecedented measures, including 'lockdowns' that might impact tobacco smoking behaviour. We performed a systematic review and meta-analyses to assess smoking behaviour changes during the early pre-vaccination phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Methods: We searched Medline/Embase/PsycINFO/BioRxiv/MedRxiv/SSRN databases (January-November 2020) for published and pre-print articles that reported specific smoking behaviour changes or intentions after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We used random-effects models to pool prevalence ratios comparing the prevalence of smoking during and before the pandemic, and the prevalence of smoking behaviour changes during the pandemic. The PROSPERO registration number for this systematic review was CRD42020206383. Findings: 31 studies were included in meta-analyses, with smoking data for 269,164 participants across 24 countries. The proportion of people smoking during the pandemic was lower than that before, with a pooled prevalence ratio of 0·87 (95%CI:0·79-0·97). Among people who smoke, 21% (95%CI:14-30%) smoked less, 27% (95%CI:22-32%) smoked more, 50% (95%CI:41%-58%) had unchanged smoking and 4% (95%CI:1-9%) reported quitting smoking. Among people who did not smoke, 2% (95%CI:1-3%) started smoking during the pandemic. Heterogeneity was high in all meta-analyses and so the pooled estimates should be interpreted with caution (I2 >91% and p-heterogeneity<0·001). Almost all studies were at high risk of bias due to use of non-representative samples, non-response bias, and utilisation of non-validated questions. Interpretation: Smoking behaviour changes during the first phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 were highly mixed. Meta-analyses indicated that there was a relative reduction in overall smoking prevalence during the pandemic, while similar proportions of people who smoke smoked more or smoked less, although heterogeneity was high. Implementation of evidence-based tobacco control policies and programs, including tobacco cessation services, have an important role in ensuring that the COVID-19 pandemic does not exacerbate the smoking pandemic and associated adverse health outcomes. Funding: No specific funding was received for this study.

Monitoring changes in community support for policies on obesity prevention.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the New South Wales (NSW) community's support for obesity prevention policies and concern for food marketing and promotion issues, and to determine any demographic differences or changes over time. METHODS: In 2013 (n=2474), 2016 (n=1602) and 2019 (n=1613) a sample of adults who were representative of the NSW population for age, gender, education and location was asked about support for policy initiatives that influence the food environment. Analysis identified the characteristics of those who supported policies and variation in support over time. RESULTS: There were limited changes in support over time; however, support for many policies was strong and sustained. In 2019, support was highest for regulation of claims about nutrition (77.2%), and health warning labels (75.7%). Support for a ban on unhealthy food advertising that targets children (64.6%) had decreased since 2013. Women, older people and those who were aware that obesity was a risk factor for cancer were generally more likely to support policies. Parents were more likely than non-parents to be concerned about positioning unhealthy food at supermarket checkouts (OR 1.32) and unhealthy outdoor advertisements (OR 1.22). Concern increased in 2019 for unhealthy marketing on the internet (OR 1.21). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows public support for policy options at moderate to high levels but not increasing in the six-year study period. Implications for public health: These results form part of a package that, along with the well-established evidence, makes the case for policy action in Australia.

Cancer incidence and cancer death in relation to tobacco smoking in a population-based Australian cohort study.

Tobacco smoke is a known carcinogen, but the magnitude of smoking-related cancer risk depends on country-specific, generational smoking patterns. We quantified cancer risk in relation to smoking in a population-based cohort, the 45 and Up Study (2006-2009) in New South Wales, Australia. Cox proportional hazards regressions estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HR) by self-reported smoking history at baseline (2006-2009) for incident, primary cancers via linkage to cancer registry data to 2013 and cancer death data to 2015. Among 229 028 participants aged ≥45 years, 18 475 cancers and 5382 cancer deaths occurred. Current-smokers had increased risks of all cancers combined (HR = 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.34-1.51), cancers of the lung (HR = 17.66, 95%CI, 14.65-21.29), larynx (HR = 11.29, 95%CI, 5.49-23.20), head-and-neck (HR = 2.53, 95%CI, 1.87-3.41), oesophagus (HR = 3.84, 95%CI, 2.33-6.35), liver (HR = 4.07, 95%CI, 2.55-6.51), bladder (HR = 3.08, 95%CI, 2.00-4.73), pancreas (HR = 2.68, 95%CI, 1.93-3.71), colorectum (HR = 1.31, 95%CI, 1.09-1.57) and unknown primary site (HR = 3.26, 95%CI, 2.19-4.84) versus never-smokers. Hazards increased with increasing smoking intensity; compared to never-smokers, lung cancer HR = 9.22 (95%CI, 5.14-16.55) for 1-5 cigarettes/day and 38.61 (95%CI, 25.65-58.13) for >35 cigarettes/day. Lung cancer risk was lower with quitting at any age but remained higher than never-smokers for quitters aged >25y. By age 80y, an estimated 48.3% of current-smokers (41.1% never-smokers) will develop cancer, and 14% will develop lung cancer, including 7.7% currently smoking 1-5 cigarettes/day and 26.4% for >35 cigarettes/day (1.0% never-smokers). Cancer risk for Australian smokers is significant, even for 'light' smokers. These contemporary estimates underpin the need for continued investment in strategies to prevent smoking uptake and facilitate cessation, which remain key to reducing cancer morbidity and mortality worldwide.

Alcohol consumption, drinking patterns and cancer incidence in an Australian cohort of 226,162 participants aged 45 years and over.

BACKGROUND: Although overall alcohol consumption is known to increase the risk of a number of cancers internationally, evidence for Australia and evidence regarding the pattern of drinking and cancer risk is limited. METHODS: Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for cancer risk in relation to overall alcohol consumption (drinks/week) and pattern of drinking were calculated using Cox proportional hazard regressions for 226,162 participants aged ≥45 years (2006-2009) in the 45 and Up Study, an Australian prospective cohort study. Incident primary cancer cases were ascertained by linkage to the New South Wales Cancer Registry to 2013 by the Centre for Health Record Linkage. RESULTS: Over a median of 5.4 years, 17,332 cancers were diagnosed. Increasing levels of alcohol intake were associated with increased risk of cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract (1.19; 1.10-1.29), mouth and pharynx (1.18; 1.08-1.29), oesophagus (1.22; 1.04-1.43), colorectum (1.09; 1.04-1.15), colon (1.13; 1.06-1.20), liver (1.22; 1.04-1.44) and breast (1.11; 1.02-1.21). Breast cancer risk was marginally associated with drinking pattern, with higher risk when intake was concentrated on 1-3 days/week compared to the same amount spread over 4-7 days (Pinteraction = 0.049). CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol consumption confers a significant risk of cancer, and drinking pattern may be independently related to breast cancer risk.

A Prospective Study of Health Conditions Related to Alcohol Consumption Cessation Among 97,852 Drinkers Aged 45 and Over in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that people who develop serious health conditions are likely to cease drinking alcohol (sometimes known as "sick-quitters"). We quantified the likelihood of quitting drinking in relation to the onset of a variety of health conditions. METHODS: Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of ceasing alcohol consumption after diagnosis of 28 health conditions and 4 general indicators of health were derived from logistic regression among 97,852 drinkers aged ≥ 45 years between baseline (2006 to 2009) and median 5.3 years of follow-up in the New South Wales 45 and Up Study. Incident health conditions at follow-up were self-reported. RESULTS: At follow-up, 9.6% (n = 9,438) of drinkers had ceased drinking. Drinking cessation was significantly associated with 24 of 32 health conditions examined: 15.4% of participants with newly diagnosed diabetes quit drinking (OR for quitting vs. continuing 1.77, 95% CI: 1.60 to 1.96), 16.4% with Parkinson's disease (1.71, 1.35 to 2.17), 17.8% with poor memory (1.68, 1.43 to 1.97), 19.2% with hip fracture (1.64, 1.30 to 2.06), 14.7% with stroke (1.45, 1.27 to 1.66), 12.5% with depression (1.40, 1.26 to 1.55), 15.0% with breast cancer (1.38, 1.18 to 1.61), 12.3% with heart disease (1.34, 1.25 to 1.44), and 13.3% with osteoarthritis (1.22, 1.12 to 1.33). Strong associations with quitting were observed in those with a decline in self-rated overall health (2.93, 2.53 to 3.40) and quality of life (2.68, 2.24 to 3.21). Some health conditions not significantly associated with quitting were prostate cancer, melanoma, nonmelanoma skin cancer, hay fever, and hearing loss. Findings were generally consistent for men and women, by age group and by smoking status. CONCLUSIONS: Diagnosis with a variety of health conditions appears to prompt drinking cessation in older adults.

Co-occurrence of chronic disease lifestyle risk factors in middle-aged and older immigrants: A cross-sectional analysis of 264,102 Australians.

BACKGROUND: The way in which lifestyle risk factors for chronic disease co-occur among people with different cultural backgrounds is largely unknown. METHODS: This study investigated chronic disease risk among immigrants aged ≥45 years in Australia by combining common lifestyle risk factors into a weighted chronic disease risk index (CDRI). Among 64,194 immigrants and 199,908 Australian-born participants in the 45 and Up Study (2006-2009), Poisson regression was used to derive relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for five risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, overweight/obesity, physical activity, diet) by place of birth adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics. Multiple linear regression was used to determine adjusted mean differences (AMDs) in CDRI score by place of birth and years lived in Australia. RESULTS: Immigrants had higher RRs of smoking than Australian-born participants, lower RRs of excessive alcohol consumption and overweight/obesity, and no difference in RR for physical inactivity and insufficient fruit/vegetable intake. Participants born in the Middle East/North Africa (AMD 3.5, 95% CI 2.7, 4.3), Eastern/Central Europe (1.3, 0.8, 1.9), and Western Europe (0.5, 0.1, 0.8) had higher mean CDRI scores than Australian-born participants, while participants born in East Asia (-7.2, -7.8, -6.6), Southeast Asia (-6.6, -7.2, -6.1), Central/South Asia (-3.1, -4.0, -2.1), Sub-Saharan Africa (-1.9, -2.6, -1.2) and the United Kingdom/Ireland (-0.2, -0.5, 0.0) had lower scores. CDRI score among immigrants generally approximated that of Australian-born participants with greater years lived in Australia. CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals differences in potential risk of chronic disease among different immigrant groups in Australia.