RESUMEN
Child mortality, particularly among infants below 5 years, is a significant community well-being concern worldwide. The health sector's top priority in emerging states is to minimize children's death and enhance infant health. Despite a substantial decrease in worldwide deaths of children below 5 years, it remains a significant community well-being concern. Children under five years of age died at 37 per 1,000 live birth globally in 2020. However, in underdeveloped countries such as Pakistan and Ethiopia, the fatality rate of children per 1,000 live birth is 65.2 and 48.7, respectively, making it challenging to reduce. Predictive analytics approaches have become well-known for predicting future trends based on previous data and extracting meaningful patterns and connections between parameters in the healthcare industry. As a result, the objective of this study was to use data mining techniques to categorize and highlight the important causes of infant death. Datasets from the Pakistan Demographic Health Survey and the Ethiopian Demographic Health Survey revealed key characteristics in terms of factors that influence child mortality. A total of 12,654 and 12,869 records from both datasets were examined using the Bayesian network, tree (J-48), rule induction (PART), random forest, and multi-level perceptron techniques. On both datasets, various techniques were evaluated with the aforementioned classifiers. The best average accuracy of 97.8% was achieved by the best model, which forecasts the frequency of child deaths. This model can therefore estimate the mortality rates of children under five years in Ethiopia and Pakistan. Therefore, an online model to forecast child death based on our research is urgently needed and will be a useful intervention in healthcare.
RESUMEN
In developing countries, child health and restraining under-five child mortality are one of the fundamental concerns. UNICEF adopted sustainable development goal 3 (SDG3) to reduce the under-five child mortality rate globally to 25 deaths per 1,000 live births. The under-five mortality rate is 69 deaths per 1,000 live child-births in Pakistan as reported by the Demographic and Health Survey (2018). Predictive analytics has the power to transform the healthcare industry, personalizing care for every individual. Pakistan Demographic Health Survey (2017-2018), the publicly available dataset, is used in this study and multiple imputation methods are adopted for the treatment of missing values. The information gain, a feature selection method, ranked the information-rich features and examine their impact on child mortality prediction. The synthetic minority over-sampling method (SMOTE) balanced the training dataset, and four supervised machine learning classifiers have been used, namely the decision tree classifier, random forest classifier, naive Bayes classifier, and extreme gradient boosting classifier. For comparative analysis, accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score have been used. Eventually, a predictive analytics framework is built that predicts whether the child is alive or dead. The number under-five children in a household, preceding birth interval, family members, mother age, age of mother at first birth, antenatal care visits, breastfeeding, child size at birth, and place of delivery were found to be critical risk factors for child mortality. The random forest classifier performed efficiently and predicted under-five child mortality with accuracy (93.8%), precision (0.964), recall (0.971), and F1-score (0.967). The findings could greatly assist child health intervention programs in decision-making.
