Characterising information gains and losses when collecting multiple epidemic model outputs.

BACKGROUND: Collaborative comparisons and combinations of epidemic models are used as policy-relevant evidence during epidemic outbreaks. In the process of collecting multiple model projections, such collaborations may gain or lose relevant information. Typically, modellers contribute a probabilistic summary at each time-step. We compared this to directly collecting simulated trajectories. We aimed to explore information on key epidemic quantities; ensemble uncertainty; and performance against data, investigating potential to continuously gain information from a single cross-sectional collection of model results. METHODS: We compared projections from the European COVID-19 Scenario Modelling Hub. Five teams modelled incidence in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Spain. We compared July 2022 projections by incidence, peaks, and cumulative totals. We created a probabilistic ensemble drawn from all trajectories, and compared to ensembles from a median across each model's quantiles, or a linear opinion pool. We measured the predictive accuracy of individual trajectories against observations, using this in a weighted ensemble. We repeated this sequentially against increasing weeks of observed data. We evaluated these ensembles to reflect performance with varying observed data. RESULTS: By collecting modelled trajectories, we showed policy-relevant epidemic characteristics. Trajectories contained a right-skewed distribution well represented by an ensemble of trajectories or a linear opinion pool, but not models' quantile intervals. Ensembles weighted by performance typically retained the range of plausible incidence over time, and in some cases narrowed this by excluding some epidemic shapes. CONCLUSIONS: We observed several information gains from collecting modelled trajectories rather than quantile distributions, including potential for continuously updated information from a single model collection. The value of information gains and losses may vary with each collaborative effort's aims, depending on the needs of projection users. Understanding the differing information potential of methods to collect model projections can support the accuracy, sustainability, and communication of collaborative infectious disease modelling efforts.

Partial mean-field model for neurotransmission dynamics.

This article addresses reaction networks in which spatial and stochastic effects are of crucial importance. For such systems, particle-based models allow us to describe all microscopic details with high accuracy. However, they suffer from computational inefficiency if particle numbers and density get too large. Alternative coarse-grained-resolution models reduce computational effort tremendously, e.g., by replacing the particle distribution by a continuous concentration field governed by reaction-diffusion PDEs. We demonstrate how models on the different resolution levels can be combined into hybrid models that seamlessly combine the best of both worlds, describing molecular species with large copy numbers by macroscopic equations with spatial resolution while keeping the spatial-stochastic particle-based resolution level for the species with low copy numbers. To this end, we introduce a simple particle-based model for the binding dynamics of ions and vesicles at the heart of the neurotransmission process. Within this framework, we derive a novel hybrid model and present results from numerical experiments which demonstrate that the hybrid model allows for an accurate approximation of the full particle-based model in realistic scenarios.

Modelling opinion dynamics under the impact of influencer and media strategies.

Digital communication has made the public discourse considerably more complex, and new actors and strategies have emerged as a result of this seismic shift. Aside from the often-studied interactions among individuals during opinion formation, which have been facilitated on a large scale by social media platforms, the changing role of traditional media and the emerging role of "influencers" are not well understood, and the implications of their engagement strategies arising from the incentive structure of the attention economy even less so. Here we propose a novel framework for opinion dynamics that can accommodate various versions of opinion dynamics as well as account for different roles, namely that of individuals, media and influencers, who change their own opinion positions on different time scales. Numerical simulations of instances of this framework show the importance of their relative influence in creating qualitatively different opinion formation dynamics: with influencers, fragmented but short-lived clusters emerge, which are then counteracted by more stable media positions. The framework allows for mean-field approximations by partial differential equations, which reproduce those dynamics and allow for efficient large-scale simulations when the number of individuals is large. Based on the mean-field approximations, we can study how strategies of influencers to gain more followers can influence the overall opinion distribution. We show that moving towards extreme positions can be a beneficial strategy for influencers to gain followers. Finally, our framework allows us to demonstrate that optimal control strategies allow other influencers or media to counteract such attempts and prevent further fragmentation of the opinion landscape. Our modelling framework contributes to a more flexible modelling approach in opinion dynamics and a better understanding of the different roles and strategies in the increasingly complex information ecosystem.

Novel multi-objective affinity approach allows to identify pH-specific µ-opioid receptor agonists.

Opioids are essential pharmaceuticals due to their analgesic properties, however, lethal side effects, addiction, and opioid tolerance are extremely challenging. The development of novel molecules targeting the [Formula: see text]-opioid receptor (MOR) in inflamed, but not in healthy tissue, could significantly reduce these unwanted effects. Finding such novel molecules can be achieved by maximizing the binding affinity to the MOR at acidic pH while minimizing it at neutral pH, thus combining two conflicting objectives. Here, this multi-objective optimal affinity approach is presented, together with a virtual drug discovery pipeline for its practical implementation. When applied to finding pH-specific drug candidates, it combines protonation state-dependent structure and ligand preparation with high-throughput virtual screening. We employ this pipeline to characterize a set of MOR agonists identifying a morphine-like opioid derivative with higher predicted binding affinities to the MOR at low pH compared to neutral pH. Our results also confirm existing experimental evidence that NFEPP, a previously described fentanyl derivative with reduced side effects, and recently reported [Formula: see text]-fluorofentanyls and -morphines show an increased specificity for the MOR at acidic pH when compared to fentanyl and morphine. We further applied our approach to screen a >50K ligand library identifying novel molecules with pH-specific predicted binding affinities to the MOR. The presented differential docking pipeline can be applied to perform multi-objective affinity optimization to identify safer and more specific drug candidates at large scale.

Rate-limiting recovery processes in neurotransmission under sustained stimulation.

At active zones of chemical synapses, an arriving electric signal induces the fusion of vesicles with the presynaptic membrane, thereby releasing neurotransmitters into the synaptic cleft. After a fusion event, both the release site and the vesicle undergo a recovery process before becoming available for reuse again. Of central interest is the question which of the two restoration steps acts as the limiting factor during neurotransmission under high-frequency sustained stimulation. In order to investigate this problem, we introduce a non-linear reaction network which involves explicit recovery steps for both the vesicles and the release sites, and includes the induced time-dependent output current. The associated reaction dynamics are formulated by means of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), as well as via the associated stochastic jump process. While the stochastic jump model describes the dynamics at a single active zone, the average over many active zones is close to the ODE solution and shares its periodic structure. The reason for this can be traced back to the insight that recovery dynamics of vesicles and release sites are statistically almost independent. A sensitivity analysis on the recovery rates based on the ODE formulation reveals that neither the vesicle nor the release site recovery step can be identified as the essential rate-limiting step but that the rate-limiting feature changes over the course of stimulation. Under sustained stimulation, the dynamics given by the ODEs exhibit transient changes leading from an initial depression of the postsynaptic response to an asymptotic periodic orbit, while the individual trajectories of the stochastic jump model lack the oscillatory behavior and asymptotic periodicity of the ODE-solution.

Modelling altered signalling of G-protein coupled receptors in inflamed environment to advance drug design.

We previously reported the successful design, synthesis and testing of the prototype opioid painkiller NFEPP that does not elicit adverse side effects. The design process of NFEPP was based on mathematical modelling of extracellular interactions between G-protein coupled receptors (GPCRs) and ligands, recognizing that GPCRs function differently under pathological versus healthy conditions. We now present an additional and novel stochastic model of GPCR function that includes intracellular dissociation of G-protein subunits and modulation of plasma membrane calcium channels and their dependence on parameters of inflamed and healthy tissue (pH, radicals). The model is validated against in vitro experimental data for the ligands NFEPP and fentanyl at different pH values and radical concentrations. We observe markedly reduced binding affinity and calcium channel inhibition for NFEPP at normal pH compared to lower pH, in contrast to the effect of fentanyl. For increasing radical concentrations, we find enhanced constitutive G-protein activation but reduced ligand binding affinity. Assessing the different effects, the results suggest that, compared to radicals, low pH is a more important determinant of overall GPCR function in an inflamed environment. Future drug design efforts should take this into account.

Variance of filtered signals: Characterization for linear reaction networks and application to neurotransmission dynamics.

Neurotransmission at chemical synapses relies on the calcium-induced fusion of synaptic vesicles with the presynaptic membrane. The distance of the synaptic vesicle to the calcium channels determines the release probability and consequently the postsynaptic signal. Suitable models of the process need to capture both the mean and the variance observed in electrophysiological measurements of the postsynaptic current. In this work, we propose a method to directly compute the exact first- and second-order moments for signals generated by a linear reaction network under convolution with an impulse response function, rendering computationally expensive numerical simulations of the underlying stochastic counting process obsolete. We show that the autocorrelation of the process is central for the calculation of the filtered signal's second-order moments, and derive a system of PDEs for the cross-correlation functions (including the autocorrelations) of linear reaction networks with time-dependent rates. Finally, we employ our method to efficiently compare different spatial coarse graining approaches for a specific model of synaptic vesicle fusion. Beyond the application to neurotransmission processes, the developed theory can be applied to any linear reaction system that produces a filtered stochastic signal.

On the Sufficient Condition for Solving the Gap-Filling Problem Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks.

Deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) are routinely used for image segmentation of biomedical data sets to obtain quantitative measurements of cellular structures like tissues. These cellular structures often contain gaps in their boundaries, leading to poor segmentation performance when using DCNNs like the U-Net. The gaps can usually be corrected by post-hoc computer vision (CV) steps, which are specific to the data set and require a disproportionate amount of work. As DCNNs are Universal Function Approximators, it is conceivable that the corrections should be obsolete by selecting the appropriate architecture for the DCNN. In this article, we present a novel theoretical framework for the gap-filling problem in DCNNs that allows the selection of architecture to circumvent the CV steps. Combining information-theoretic measures of the data set with a fundamental property of DCNNs, the size of their receptive field, allows us to formulate statements about the solvability of the gap-filling problem independent of the specifics of model training. In particular, we obtain mathematical proof showing that the maximum proficiency of filling a gap by a DCNN is achieved if its receptive field is larger than the gap length. We then demonstrate the consequence of this result using numerical experiments on a synthetic and real data set and compare the gap-filling ability of the ubiquitous U-Net architecture with variable depths. Our code is available at https://github.com/ai-biology/dcnn-gap-filling.

Stochastic pH Oscillations in a Model of the Urea-Urease Reaction Confined to Lipid Vesicles.

The urea-urease clock reaction is a pH switch from acid to basic that can turn into a pH oscillator if it occurs inside a suitable open reactor. We numerically study the confinement of the reaction to lipid vesicles, which permit the exchange with an external reservoir by differential transport, enabling the recovery of the pH level and yielding a constant supply of urea molecules. For microscopically small vesicles, the discreteness of the number of molecules requires a stochastic treatment of the reaction dynamics. Our analysis shows that intrinsic noise induces a significant statistical variation of the oscillation period, which increases as the vesicles become smaller. The mean period, however, is found to be remarkably robust for vesicle sizes down to approximately 200 nm, but the periodicity of the rhythm is gradually destroyed for smaller vesicles. The observed oscillations are explained as a canard-like limit cycle that differs from the wide class of conventional feedback oscillators.

Multiscale molecular kinetics by coupling Markov state models and reaction-diffusion dynamics.

A novel approach to simulate simple protein-ligand systems at large time and length scales is to couple Markov state models (MSMs) of molecular kinetics with particle-based reaction-diffusion (RD) simulations, MSM/RD. Currently, MSM/RD lacks a mathematical framework to derive coupling schemes, is limited to isotropic ligands in a single conformational state, and lacks multiparticle extensions. In this work, we address these needs by developing a general MSM/RD framework by coarse-graining molecular dynamics into hybrid switching diffusion processes. Given enough data to parameterize the model, it is capable of modeling protein-protein interactions over large time and length scales, and it can be extended to handle multiple molecules. We derive the MSM/RD framework, and we implement and verify it for two protein-protein benchmark systems and one multiparticle implementation to model the formation of pentameric ring molecules. To enable reproducibility, we have published our code in the MSM/RD software package.

Inferring gene regulatory networks from single-cell RNA-seq temporal snapshot data requires higher-order moments.

Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) has become ubiquitous in biology. Recently, there has been a push for using scRNA-seq snapshot data to infer the underlying gene regulatory networks (GRNs) steering cellular function. To date, this aspiration remains unrealized due to technical and computational challenges. In this work we focus on the latter, which is under-represented in the literature. We took a systemic approach by subdividing the GRN inference into three fundamental components: data pre-processing, feature extraction, and inference. We observed that the regulatory signature is captured in the statistical moments of scRNA-seq data and requires computationally intensive minimization solvers to extract it. Furthermore, current data pre-processing might not conserve these statistical moments. Although our moment-based approach is a didactic tool for understanding the different compartments of GRN inference, this line of thinking-finding computationally feasible multi-dimensional statistics of data-is imperative for designing GRN inference methods.

Data-driven model reduction of agent-based systems using the Koopman generator.

The dynamical behavior of social systems can be described by agent-based models. Although single agents follow easily explainable rules, complex time-evolving patterns emerge due to their interaction. The simulation and analysis of such agent-based models, however, is often prohibitively time-consuming if the number of agents is large. In this paper, we show how Koopman operator theory can be used to derive reduced models of agent-based systems using only simulation data. Our goal is to learn coarse-grained models and to represent the reduced dynamics by ordinary or stochastic differential equations. The new variables are, for instance, aggregated state variables of the agent-based model, modeling the collective behavior of larger groups or the entire population. Using benchmark problems with known coarse-grained models, we demonstrate that the obtained reduced systems are in good agreement with the analytical results, provided that the numbers of agents is sufficiently large.

Mathematical modeling of spatio-temporal population dynamics and application to epidemic spreading.

Agent based models (ABMs) are a useful tool for modeling spatio-temporal population dynamics, where many details can be included in the model description. Their computational cost though is very high and for stochastic ABMs a lot of individual simulations are required to sample quantities of interest. Especially, large numbers of agents render the sampling infeasible. Model reduction to a metapopulation model leads to a significant gain in computational efficiency, while preserving important dynamical properties. Based on a precise mathematical description of spatio-temporal ABMs, we present two different metapopulation approaches (stochastic and piecewise deterministic) and discuss the approximation steps between the different models within this framework. Especially, we show how the stochastic metapopulation model results from a Galerkin projection of the underlying ABM onto a finite-dimensional ansatz space. Finally, we utilize our modeling framework to provide a conceptual model for the spreading of COVID-19 that can be scaled to real-world scenarios.

Prediction of Covid-19 spreading and optimal coordination of counter-measures: From microscopic to macroscopic models to Pareto fronts.

The Covid-19 disease has caused a world-wide pandemic with more than 60 million positive cases and more than 1.4 million deaths by the end of November 2020. As long as effective medical treatment and vaccination are not available, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, self-isolation and quarantine as well as far-reaching shutdowns of economic activity and public life are the only available strategies to prevent the virus from spreading. These interventions must meet conflicting requirements where some objectives, like the minimization of disease-related deaths or the impact on health systems, demand for stronger counter-measures, while others, such as social and economic costs, call for weaker counter-measures. Therefore, finding the optimal compromise of counter-measures requires the solution of a multi-objective optimization problem that is based on accurate prediction of future infection spreading for all combinations of counter-measures under consideration. We present a strategy for construction and solution of such a multi-objective optimization problem with real-world applicability. The strategy is based on a micro-model allowing for accurate prediction via a realistic combination of person-centric data-driven human mobility and behavior, stochastic infection models and disease progression models including micro-level inclusion of governmental intervention strategies. For this micro-model, a surrogate macro-model is constructed and validated that is much less computationally expensive and can therefore be used in the core of a numerical solver for the multi-objective optimization problem. The resulting set of optimal compromises between counter-measures (Pareto front) is discussed and its meaning for policy decisions is outlined.

The furnace and the goat-A spatio-temporal model of the fuelwood requirement for iron metallurgy on Elba Island, 4th century BCE to 2nd century ce.

Scholars frequently cite fuel scarcity after deforestation as a reason for the abandonment of most of the Roman iron smelting sites on Elba Island (Tuscan Archipelago, Italy) in the 1st century bce. Whereas the archaeological record clearly indicates the decrease in smelting activities, evidence confirming the 'deforestation narrative' is ambiguous. Therefore, we employed a stochastic, spatio-temporal model of the wood required and consumed for iron smelting on Elba Island in order to assess the availability of fuelwood on the island. We used Monte Carlo simulations to cope with the limited knowledge available on the past conditions on Elba Island and the related uncertainties in the input parameters. The model includes both, wood required for the furnaces and to supply the workforce employed in smelting. Although subject to high uncertainties, the outcomes of our model clearly indicate that it is unlikely that all woodlands on the island were cleared in the 1st century bce. A lack of fuel seems only likely if a relatively ineffective production process is assumed. Therefore, we propose taking a closer look at other reasons for the abandonment of smelting sites, e.g. the occupation of new Roman provinces with important iron ore deposits; or a resource-saving strategy in Italia. Additionally, we propose to read the development of the 'deforestation narrative' originating from the 18th/19th century in its historical context.

Single-molecule analysis reveals agonist-specific dimer formation of µ-opioid receptors.

G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) are key signaling proteins that mostly function as monomers, but for several receptors constitutive dimer formation has been described and in some cases is essential for function. Using single-molecule microscopy combined with super-resolution techniques on intact cells, we describe here a dynamic monomer-dimer equilibrium of µ-opioid receptors (µORs), where dimer formation is driven by specific agonists. The agonist DAMGO, but not morphine, induces dimer formation in a process that correlates both temporally and in its agonist- and phosphorylation-dependence with ß-arrestin2 binding to the receptors. This dimerization is independent from, but may precede, µOR internalization. These data suggest a new level of GPCR regulation that links dimer formation to specific agonists and their downstream signals.

Modeling of Drug Diffusion Based on Concentration Profiles in Healthy and Damaged Human Skin.

Based on experimental drug concentration profiles in healthy as well as tape-stripped ex vivo human skin, we model the penetration of the antiinflammatory drug dexamethasone into the skin layers by the one-dimensional generalized diffusion equation. We estimate the position-dependent free-energy and diffusivity profiles by solving the conjugated minimization problem, in which the only inputs are concentration profiles of dexamethasone in skin at three consecutive penetration times. The resulting free-energy profiles for damaged and healthy skin show only minor differences. In contrast, the drug diffusivity in the first 10 µm of the upper skin layer of damaged skin is 200-fold increased compared to healthy skin, which reflects the corrupted barrier function of tape-stripped skin. For the case of healthy skin, we examine the robustness of our method by analyzing the behavior of the extracted skin parameters when the number of input and output parameters are reduced. We also discuss techniques for the regularization of our parameter extraction method.

Analysis of long non-coding RNA and mRNA expression in bovine macrophages brings up novel aspects of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis infections.

Paratuberculosis is a major disease in cattle that severely affects animal welfare and causes huge economic losses worldwide. Development of alternative diagnostic methods is of urgent need to control the disease. Recent studies suggest that long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) play a crucial role in regulating immune function and may confer valuable information about the disease. However, their role has not yet been investigated in cattle with respect to infection towards Paratuberculosis. Therefore, we investigated the alteration in genomic expression profiles of mRNA and lncRNA in bovine macrophages in response to Paratuberculosis infection using RNA-Seq. We identified 397 potentially novel lncRNA candidates in macrophages of which 38 were differentially regulated by the infection. A total of 820 coding genes were also significantly altered by the infection. Co-expression analysis of lncRNAs and their neighbouring coding genes suggest regulatory functions of lncRNAs in pathways related to immune response. For example, this included protein coding genes such as TNIP3, TNFAIP3 and NF-κB2 that play a role in NF-κB2 signalling, a pathway associated with immune response. This study advances our understanding of lncRNA roles during Paratuberculosis infection.

EMT network-based feature selection improves prognosis prediction in lung adenocarcinoma.

Various feature selection algorithms have been proposed to identify cancer prognostic biomarkers. In recent years, however, their reproducibility is criticized. The performance of feature selection algorithms is shown to be affected by the datasets, underlying networks and evaluation metrics. One of the causes is the curse of dimensionality, which makes it hard to select the features that generalize well on independent data. Even the integration of biological networks does not mitigate this issue because the networks are large and many of their components are not relevant for the phenotype of interest. With the availability of multi-omics data, integrative approaches are being developed to build more robust predictive models. In this scenario, the higher data dimensions create greater challenges. We proposed a phenotype relevant network-based feature selection (PRNFS) framework and demonstrated its advantages in lung cancer prognosis prediction. We constructed cancer prognosis relevant networks based on epithelial mesenchymal transition (EMT) and integrated them with different types of omics data for feature selection. With less than 2.5% of the total dimensionality, we obtained EMT prognostic signatures that achieved remarkable prediction performance (average AUC values >0.8), very significant sample stratifications, and meaningful biological interpretations. In addition to finding EMT signatures from different omics data levels, we combined these single-omics signatures into multi-omics signatures, which improved sample stratifications significantly. Both single- and multi-omics EMT signatures were tested on independent multi-omics lung cancer datasets and significant sample stratifications were obtained.

Data-driven computation of molecular reaction coordinates.

The identification of meaningful reaction coordinates plays a key role in the study of complex molecular systems whose essential dynamics are characterized by rare or slow transition events. In a recent publication, precise defining characteristics of such reaction coordinates were identified and linked to the existence of a so-called transition manifold. This theory gives rise to a novel numerical method for the pointwise computation of reaction coordinates that relies on short parallel MD simulations only, but yields accurate approximation of the long time behavior of the system under consideration. This article presents an extension of the method towards practical applicability in computational chemistry. It links the newly defined reaction coordinates to concepts from transition path theory and Markov state model building. The main result is an alternative computational scheme that allows for a global computation of reaction coordinates based on commonly available types of simulation data, such as single long molecular trajectories or the push-forward of arbitrary canonically distributed point clouds. It is based on a Galerkin approximation of the transition manifold reaction coordinates that can be tuned to individual requirements by the choice of the Galerkin ansatz functions. Moreover, we propose a ready-to-implement variant of the new scheme, which computes data-fitted, mesh-free ansatz functions directly from the available simulation data. The efficacy of the new method is demonstrated on a small protein system.