The ADO index as a predictor of two-year mortality in general practice-based chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts. METHODS: Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71). CONCLUSIONS: The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings.

Resting and post bronchial challenge testing carbon dioxide partial pressure in individuals with and without asthma.

OBJECTIVE: There is conflicting evidence about resting carbon dioxide levels in asthmatic individuals. We wanted to determine if transcutaneously measured carbon dioxide levels prior and during bronchial provocation testing differ according to asthma status reflecting dysfunctional breathing. METHODS: We investigated active firefighters and policemen by means of a validated questionnaire on respiratory symptoms, spirometry, bronchial challenge testing with methacholine (MCT) and measurement of transcutaneous blood carbon dioxide partial pressure (PtcCO(2)) at rest prior performing spirometry, one minute and five minutes after termination of MCT. A respiratory physician blinded to the PtcCO(2) results assigned a diagnosis of asthma after reviewing the available study data and the files of the workers medical screening program. RESULTS: The study sample consisted of 128 male and 10 female individuals. Fifteen individuals (11%) had physician-diagnosed asthma. There was no clinically important difference in median PtcCO(2) at rest, one and five minutes after recovery from MCT in asthmatics compared to non-asthmatics (35.6 vs 35.7 mmHg, p = 0.466; 34.7 vs 33.4 mmHg, p = 0.245 and 37.4 vs 36.4 mmHg, p = 0.732). The median drop in PtcCO(2) during MCT and the increase after MCT was lower in asthmatics compared to non-asthmatics (0.1 vs 3.2 mmHg, p = 0.014 and 1.9 vs 2.9 mmHg, p = 0.025). CONCLUSIONS: PtcCO(2) levels at rest prior and during recovery after MCT do not differ in individuals with or without physician diagnosed asthma. The fall and subsequent increase in PtcCO(2) levels are higher in non-asthmatics than in asthmatics and seems to be related with increased number of respiratory maneuvers during MCT.